Thrilho

I think he was already a lock. I think he'll now grab a starting spot at some point and guess he tops 600 yards and 4 TDs. He's 6'2 and there aren't that many tall "go up and get em" receivers on the roster. Edit: reminder this guy had 1,350 yards and 14 TDs last year, as well as (I think?) the most 20+ yard passes of anyone in college football

Seems like Eddie Jackson has been around the ball on every play. Making solid tackles and I'm sure he's got something to do with the 39 total passing yards (before that play).

So Adam Jahns of the Sun-Times and Adam Hoge of WGN did an AMA on reddit today. They had some interesting answers, so thought I'd summarize them here. They seem to go a little further out on the limb than they would in articles. Jahns definitely likes him some Jackson and Floyd. Both think there's a non-zero chance Trubisky opens the season as the starter. When will Trubisky first start? If Glennon and Trubisky play equally well this week: Bold Predictions: Floyd ceiling: Floyd sack prediction: Record predictions: Biggest surprise player: Next contract extension: ILB time split: Coaching candidates if Fox gets fired: Pace's job security: What would you rather fight? 100 Cohen-sized Hicks or one Hicks-sized Cohen?

For anyone who missed the game, here's Eddie Jackson saving a TD with a diving play. Floyd also in Palmer's face on an inside rush. https://www.clippituser.tv/c/edqdgw

Also with you on the excitement. It's been a while since I've been excited about the bears and have mayyybe seen 25% of their snaps the last 2-3 years? Not bragging on that, just to say I'm not usually this effusive, nor have I cared much lately. But I loved the switch to the 3-4, thought last draft was a home run (I've said before and still think it'll turn out better than any Angelo draft if you went by whatever WAR stat you could make up for the NFL...debatable of course), then Pace traded up to get the QB I wanted as well as a bunch exciting players at skill positions in this year's draft. All very exciting things in my world. But the did the Jaye Howard thing which seems like a great move, and totally filled in that Jonathan Allen sized hole on the line. Cunningham looks like a steal. Pace didn't pay huge for a star corner, but got quantity and then locked up the LT, got a TE, a good safety in Demps, Howard, and maybe re-up Hicks. And also he spent some money on a giraffe to act as a smoke screen so people didn't see him coming on Money Mitch. Hopefully that giraffe is sitting on the bench soon but either way...low downside proposition if it helps you get the QB you want. So in summary, I totally see that I'm the horsefeathering overflowing kool-aid man over here but I just wanted to note that it's not my default setting. Emory was junk and Angelo was largely milktoast nothing that sapped my caring about the NFL. This team though. A 3-4 defense that's coming together, a young sky's the limit QB, elite running game, and some good tools on offense. Could be a good reason to start watching NFL again.

Great post. Bullard, Howard, and Goldman all looked great. And I'd remembered Bullard having an awesome game but hadn't found the videos. So thanks for posting them. Saw this too: He looks like he's put on some good weight and was setting edges and powering through o linemen. Been all over the place. I expect RHH and Willie Young to both be decent and Hicks is real good. McPhee coming back is looking more likely. If the front 7 stays relatively healthy and look anything like they have so far (without Hick, Trevathan, McPhee, much of Houston) this could be a top 10 defense. A lot will be on the secondary, but I think getting Demps was big. At least one competent, not over the hill safety to cover up some mistakes. Then ideally Eddie Jackson can take over right away and be decent. A good d-line should help the corners, of whom the Bears have a lot for competition. We'll see on that part, but by getting Howard this year and seeing Bullard look as good as he has, this d-line has potentially really filled in with pretty high level players. Also, yes, lets have Peyton Manning take an active interest in Mitch. Trubisky mentioned that Peyton called him before the draft and chewed the fat about his future and the NFL. Clearly Peyton's got a relationship with Fox, knows the offense a bit and cared enough to drop by the first day Mitch had first team reps. Get this dude around more often. Actually, let's just make him head coach. #PeytonManning2018 Cutthatmeat.gif (For real though...that could happen and it would be the ultimate anti-Ditka and I would love it. It would be the Bears getting their Joe)

This was nice to see, Jahns thinks Jackson is close to locking up the starting FS spot. http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/bears-might-have-drafted-something-special-in-safety-eddie-jackson/ This is another pick I loved. I really didn't want Jamal Adams. Give me a center fielder type who's actually produced a bunch of turnovers. Jackson's looked good to my untrained eye, but there are so many plays you don't see the safety, don't know if the QB is staying away due to good coverage, don't know if he blew some little nuance of the play, but that's some good praise from Demps. And you'd think Jahns wouldn't be so clear about it being Jackson's if he wasn't hearing good things from the coaching staff.

Now here's a play that Pirates broadcaster can get behind. Not showing anyone up, just grabbing that lunch pale and being a real team player.

Yes, Javy up in the 5 spot. Take it and never give it back. Willson has clean up but nobody's got squatters on 5 yet. (Admitting that Happ is great long term and Joe is a rubix cube of lineup logic, but having fun with Javy at 5 against a righty and want him to the grab bull by the mother horsefeathering horns).

Oh and I'm starting to think 7+ wins. Nothing crazy but that defense is looking really good and the offense has lots of pieces too. I think Trubisky starts within the first 4-6 games and has a pretty good rookie season. Not saying he'll light the world on fire, but in my world he'll be good enough to get us just about all 7 of those wins even with Glennon starting for some of those tough early season games. A lot of that is assuming an improved secondary, which includes Eddie Jackson. I'm on the kool aid right now but I'm good with taking the lumps. Defense looked real good.

Yeah I saw the same thing. I'm way biased so maybe I'm wrong but it seemed like they wanted to bury the Trubisky story. Play Glennon until he shows a glimmer of something, which ended up having to be a whole half, and then not give Mitch anything to work with. It's tough to keep a drive moving when the coaching staff is calling a bunch of runs with a RB who has zero shot at making the roster. But still a fun game last night. Cohen made NFL players look the same way made D2 players look in college. Was so cool to see him hit the edge quicker than anyone on defense could and turn it up. It's been said before, but he's a way different player if he can do that with hand offs rather than have to get screens. I agree with davell's 10 touches a game. I think it'll be that right out of the gate in the regular season. Then Bullard. That dude looked awesome. The whole front seven looked great. Floyd beat his guy on one of the first plays for what should have been a hold on somewhat of a power move. Jaye Howard looked great. I've been meaning to bring up Roy Robertson-Harris. He's got a really good body for pass rushing at his like 6'7 300 where he is now and was dominating he 3rd stringers. The broadcast still even had him listed as 278 (despite Jim Miller saying ~295) so it's cool to see him already playing well with that new weight. He really looked good. I think Eddie Jackson wins that safety job early in the season. Obviously, without the all 22 I can't see everything he was doing, but the QBs so far have not been going after him. And he's been around the ball a lot. That play he made to break up the deep pass in the end zone was real good (diving play, back to QB on like a 35 yard pass play). Cunningham looks great. Kyle Fuller played very well against the 1s. Inside linebacking again stood out with Freeman in there. Receivers could have been better, but Glennon was trash. Cohen was the one pushing most of those early drives, and Glennon did dick til the 2s were in at the end of the half. I'd guess (hope) Trubisky is starting within the first four games. Gentry showed again though and I'm gonna start counting on him to win the 3/4 spot by the halfway point of the season. But yeah, last night was about the front 7 and Cohen for me. Both were so good. Another super fun Bears game.

The road side is littered with things Javy was never going to be able to do. Doubt this man at your peril!

It's funny. A day or two ago, I noticed a post you made a little after the draft where you didn't expect anyone from the draft to play much in 2017 (or something to that effect). I wasn't going to reply to it to gotcha you or anything, it just read kind of funny with the way the story seems to be going on those guys. Trubisky is probably going to start at some point, maybe by the bye (if not sooner), and Shaheen, Cohen, and Jackson are all almost certain to see a ton of snaps. Yeah this was a common thought. Lawrence Holmes (who is far and away my favorite sports radio personality and one of the few I can even stand) went on and on about how arrogant this draft class is. None of these guys is going to contribute at all! They've got needs and they took luxuries, etc. It's one preseason game and some camp so nothing is proven yet, but I think they were in dire need of playmakers, and Pace took some guys who could be that. Hopefully these guys will be awesome, Floyd/Bullard work out well, and Pace has backers everywhere you look.

Bonus run play from the guy with the same 40 as Deshaun Watson

Yeah, I think this is gonna be a good draft class. And it's exciting because it's not a bunch of guards and D tackles. They stacked up skill positions, and got guys who could potentially be electric home run hitter types. I think Gentry sticks too and ends up as at least a solid #3 type. And yeah, that was real nice watching Trubisky show off all those physical tools and accuracy. It was against bums who weren't blitzing but not sure how you look at that and have any interest in raining on the Trubisky parade today. And Floyd...dude looked good. Bullard too, albeit against O-linemen that probably aren't going to play. Definitely the most fun I've had watching a Bears game in a few years.

I'm rooting for him. I know Quintana is going to be awesome, I want the White Sox rebuild to go great. They went with the high upside guys rebuild, which I like way more than the quantity approach. More pitchers than I'd prefer but they got 2 very high upside hitters. Go Eloy. Hit 40 at the upside down arrow Cell.

Javy heating up against RHP. Before that HR he's at .283/.321/.491 in 56 PAs since July 1. Not much sample size but ghe consecutive good days against Greinke and a dominant Roark are good to see.

And on the WS chances, I was going off 538's odds for the Dodgers (24%) or what the Cubs were at this time last year. I think the Cubs are winning the division, so basically removing that 15% chance of not making the playoffs from the equation on our number. Even if it's 15-20% for your really good teams and not 25% I'm still thinking that bullpen is worth the 5% and a major addition there is worth at least a third of the value you put on bullpen.

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots. The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well. Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better. Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal. I just don't really think there is any playoff secret sauce. And to any degree that there might be something that plays better, I think the impact is minimal. There's just too much variance in baseball and in a short series, and too many rounds to get through. In other words, even if bullpen moves did have a disproportionate impact, how much is it really moving the needle on the 12-15% chance a team has going in (or, at absolute extreme best, if you love the Dodgers as much as FG's projections do, 20%, which I think is overselling their chances). As for your 25% number, that's crazy high. No team has that going into the playoffs. It's tough for me to put a number on it, but think about the number of times the Cubs could've lost if they didn't have Chapman. Many of the top relievers were nothings by the time the playoffs rolled around. Could be the same thing this year. So part of it is just mitigating a potential huge weakness if the bullpen shortens itself up with injury or performance. But then it's innings pitched. If I wasn't working right now I'd do some research to figure out the percentage of innings pitched over the regular season by some high leverage guys va in the playoffs. You basically don't want the back of your bullpen in there very often at all. And if it's a deep run that's a lot of innings for your top guys. Lot of room for collapse due to overuse. Then you've got matchup stuff. Adding a good power lefty with Monty already there changes a lot of calculus. So...if I'm trying to put a number on it I think if you roll into the playoffs with a bullpen weakness it's dropping you at least 5%. Getting Wilson isn't that whole 5% but given the cascading effects of having another high leverage guy you could say that it's much more likely that you aren't going to drop that whole 5% by entering the playoffs with a bullpen weakness.

I say the same thing I did last year, relative to the playoff crapshoot thing. I think bullpen moves have a disproportionately large impact on that crapshoot math. Especially when you get a top level LHP to deal with the Dodgers and Nats, where we could've been in some trouble counting on Deunsing in a lot of big spots. The Cubs came very close to getting bounced a couple times in the playoffs last year, so I can't really bang the drum again that our chances were a bunch higher than the ~25%, but whatever they were last year I don't think Chapman was a ~1% impact. And adding a lefty setup man who might be able to be used similarly to Miller, I'd think that's got more impact than projected as well. Overall, if I'd had to choose between this or getting a JV I'd do this every time. Regardless of how they pitch the rest of the regular season I want Hendricks and Arrieta in the playoff rotation. Part of that is chemistry for the defending champs but they're also really good, and I don't have any kind of confidence that JV is going to be better. Instead they got that elusive late inning lefty, have him for another year, and could get him to stick around longer. With the two other powerhouses being lefty dominated that's an exciting get. Oh and lefty platoon at catcher for the really tough playoff righties? Yes, totally excited about the deal.

Yeah this uptick in Ks is encouraging. After the 10 K effort tonight he's got 48 Ks over 44.1 innings in his last 7 starts. Average of more than 6 IP per start too.

Dang, I guess Austin Upshaw's 2 HR game in AZ got him jumped to SB. In his second game there, he's 2-2 with a double. He was listed as a first baseman when they drafted him, but he's playing 2B and on MiLB he's listed as a SS. He didn't have eye popping power or walk numbers in college but had relatively high average and decent K numbers. I'm certainly more interested in the other Austin (Filiere), but that 2 HR game and the aggressive promotion makes him an interesting follow for now.

Or just have him implode to make me look stupid. I can't honestly say I'm as tied in to the aims of the universe as I suggested in that post

The universe is trying to make a point and Butler is its vehicle. Don't trade young, once top prospects who have hit a rough patch for pennies on the dollar to a smarter front office. It tried to make the point with Rizzo, Arrieta, and Montgomery. MLB hasn't gotten the message yet, so hopefully the universe keeps trying to make that point. Bring us Gausman, universe!

No sir. I want an extension. Leave the blown saves for Nats.