Thrilho

I was being a bit facetious. But realistically, Happ's ability to start on our team hinges on Javy, Eloy and Zobrist. i'm just saying that if he actually amounts to that (those numbers at the plate and average-ish fielding), he's probably our best longer term 2B once zobrist stops defying age. actually, that player would pretty much be the 4 win zobrist we saw last year. At "passable" defense I'd want to hear more about the OBP. Zo was a 4.0 win player with a .386 OBP and 18 HRs and -1.5 UZR/150. So if Happ is .270 at the top end of his estimated BA spectrum he'd need to match Zobrist's 15% walk rate for the 4 wins. I know that's taking the Zobrist comp and 4 wins super literally, but on the other hand Javy had the .272 BA and paced for about 19 HRs per 600 PAs with awesome defense. So I could Happ in a time share with Baez and outfield guys, but in my mind he'd have to outpace that 20 HR, come up with a lot of walks, or play better than passable D to overtake Javy. But luckily they both can play multiple positions and can function as a platoon, so I could both as a fit long term.

Since everyone just saw Watson's last game I figured I'd post Trubisky's. It wasn't even that great a game for him (2 of his 6 picks came in this one, along with a fumble) but it's a good snapshot of his tools. Saw this post on another forum and agreed with most of it so figured I'd post it here: For the pocket presence thing check out 2:42. Just slight moves in a collapsing pocket while avoiding the rush then firing down field. Or just flip to 6:26 for the final drive where he throws 4 passes that should have been TDs but still gets one on the last play with a pretty nice escape and throw.

Yeah, the context is different vs this Eloy thing. It's not like McLeod had a super secret down low comparison of Javy to Ramirez after a couple seasons of monster success like Eloy. It was more "he could be awesome player X or a complete bust" after a couple viewings of HS Javy. And he obviously didn't believe the Manny thing too much because they didn't draft him. And the more I thought about it after I said that thing about how they're not bashful about dropping comps I couldn't really remember them dropping many others. So the super secret down low comparison could really be anyone and they don't want to screw with Eloy's head. KB would make some sense though, because MVP Bryant doesn't want to hear comparisons to an A baller in his own org and Eloy doesn't need to be comp'd to the MVP on the big club.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/former-scouting-directors-faith-in-javier-baez-pays-off-for-chicago-cubs-101416

True, if Trubisky or Allen or whoever aren't a tier above the guys in the second round go defense. I keep saying I'm not a scout, but then sticking to my idea that Trubisky is #3 worthy. So if Pace agrees with you and a lot of other draft guys saying there are no QBs worthy of that spot then cool do something else. Your other idea of Tyrod Taylor seems like a pretty good one if no QB at #3. The Bills came out and said they're getting rid of him and a lot of sources think they'll just cut rather than trade. If he's available for just money then you could get him and still have your top two picks for defense. I think that probably represents your best shot at getting to the playoffs next year. I posted this earlier, but it was in between a bunch of words about draft prospects and a chest a tattoo, so it may have been lost. PFF's argument for keeping Taylor: https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-bills-should-build-around-tyrod-taylor-not-show-him-the-door/ (37-12 TD to Int ratio last 2 years) A young QB who has actually started the last two years (vs JG or McCarron) and been a steady game manager while also creating with his feet. If he's available in FA for just money I could definitely see Pace doing it. If he did then my top option would probably be Allen in the draft if was available or a trade down within the top 10ish to get Adams or Hooker if Allen was gone. Or just take Adams or Hooker at 3, but seems like you could get someone like the Jets to trade up for Trubisky. I've seen a lot of talk about the 49ers getting both McDaniel and the Pats asst GM, then trading for JG. In that case you'd think they'd just pick Jonathan Allen. For Trubisky-hopers that could be good news, but if the Bears have already signed/traded for Taylor by draft time then you're probably just hoping for Jonathan Allen to fall. I agree that he'd be awesome in our front 7 and the line would really free up Floyd et al to fly around. I haven't checked out Adams or Hooker enough to know if it would be a good idea to take one of them instead, but it seems like there's so much talent in at the top of this draft that there's a good chance you could drop down in the top 10 and get one of them.

That's the first guy I thought of. Similar body type, Eloys got some Ks but a high BA, then the power. Maybe not very creative historically but there aren't THAT many greats who were Eloy's size. Plus that's the sort of comparison I'm sure they wouldn't want getting out. It's not like they've been bashful about comparing players to historical greats (see the constantly dropped Javy might be Manny quote from McLeod). So yeah Bryant could make sense.

That was a post on the individual QBs, but I also just wanted to say that if you think one of the top QBs is much better than what will be available in the second round I'd much rather sacrifice the one round drop in talent on defense than on the QB. It's supposed to be a deep draft in the secondary, so you figure you'll still be able to get a pretty good guy there. But with QB you pretty much get: 1. Above average QB that you're tethered to a while 2. Average QB you're tethered to a while 3. Below average QB that you're trying to get rid of 4. Non contributing bench player Put a percentage on each of those, and I'd say the chance of the second round guy being in group number 4 is much much higher than it would be for the #3 pick. If you miss on the corner back pick a little you're almost certain to get a starter or at least someone who can give you some plays. But if you pick a QB who can't start he's a nothing. But then for QB, even if you're in group 3 with a second round pick you lost hard because you're almost certainly going to lose some games with a guy like that. Maybe a team thinks that QB is such a crapshoot they want to just end up in group 2. But if you see a guy at 3 that you think has a good shot of being in group 1 I think you just take him and accept the drop in talent on the defensive player from 3 to the 35. It's a gamble but it's got big upside.

I do. I think a lot of those with the opinion that he is a project are those who know he's a first-year starter, and that's about the scope of their understanding. Moving from a spread to an NFL offense isn't necessarily easy. Plus, he's got some bad habits that'll get exposed big time without proper coaching. He floats balls, quite often. His foot work is lazy. His mechanics suck because he's all arm, not squaring up hardly at all. He's a project. He's not starting in the NFL as a rookie, unless you want Goff or worse results. The guy I'd say would be the best as a week 1 guy is Watson. But, I wouldn't want to see that either, on the Bears next year. One thing I think separates Trubisky from some of the guys who have been mentioned in the second round is the tools he's got to deal with pressure. He's consistently pretty good navigating a collapsing pocket, but then he's got serious wheels. To me, his ability to escape behind the line of scrimmage is close to what Watson has. According to this PFF article, he "finished the season ranked No. 1 in adjusted completion rate under pressure at 68.6 percent." It seems like the ability to handle pressure should allow an easier transition to the NFL. https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football-top-10-qbs-of-2016-baker-mayfield/ No matter what kind of line the NFL team has, you're going to be dealing with collapsing pockets and linemen who are fast enough to catch a QB with average or even slightly above average speed. I admittedly haven't watched a ton of Webb and Mahomes, but after you brought them up yesterday I watched a few games from each. And, to my untrained eye, it looks like both have the type of speed that would get tracked down by a lineman. Mahomes is faster for sure, but he doesn't look Trubisky/Watson fast. And it seemed like in the face of a collapsing pocket both threw off their back feet and into danger more often than you'd want. I've to watch more before saying that for sure, but that was my initial impression. Then both Mahomes and Webb seemed to have good downfield arms, but relatively inconsistent mechanics. So Mahomes in particular hit on a lot of deep passes but threw more of them than I'd want and didn't hit on a high enough percentage. He has a decent 63-65% completion percentage the last two years, but looked like he went either deep ball or checkdown a lot. According to the PFF article below, Mahomes led the Power 5 in 2015 with 60% of his yards coming after catch. He was leading the nation again at 62% at the time of this article (after week 2) so not sure how he ended up in 2016, but seemed from the eye test that he did balance his love of deep balls with checkdowns. And, sort of like Watson, a lot of those check downs looked like one read plays. https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football-lamar-jackson-leads-ranking-of-5-best-qb/ Webb looks a like Matt Barley-ish to me, where he's got a decent downfield arm when he has a chance to set himself, but his intermediate passes don't have a ton of zip on them. Like his throws to the sideline seem like they'd be picked fairly often. And, like Kaaya, my biggest problem with him is his lack of wheels. I originally liked Watson a lot, but I'm not that big a fan of his intermediate to deep arm strength and accuracy. But if you want a guy to start right away he might be the best. He makes decisions quickly (can't remember where I read it but he averages under 2.5 seconds per dropback and was close to leading the nation there) and if you put him in a west coast offense with the Bears big receivers he could probably have some success. But I'm not a big enough fan of his throwing tools long term to put him ahead of Trubisky or Josh Allen. Still not sure about him vs Kizer or him vs elite level defensive guy, but I'd lean defensive guy or trade down if Trubisky's gone and Pace isn't sold on Kizer. Then on Kizer. He's got some speed for escapability, and his frame makes him hard to bring down. But don't love his throwing motion and his passes don't seem as accurate as some of these other guys. Maybe a little bit of a Culpepper type. Or maybe a more mobile Byron Leftwich. Not sure on him yet, but not sold. Josh Allen, love him. He's got that mobility and arm for days. Has played in an offense that required more than one read and where he was under center a decent amount. Had to play under pressure an awful lot due to a bad line. Throws off his back foot on the run a lot, but he makes incredibly accurate downfield throws a lot of times when he does it. He's got a rocket on throws to the sideline and in the intermediate, and a quick throwing motion. From my eyes he's the sort of guy who could end up a top 5 QB in the league if his head game gets worked out. Like in the Favre or Elway mold. But he could also easily be Cutler, whose got those Favre/Elway tools but a 10 cent head. So with Allen, I'll say that if Trubisky is off the board and the Bears like him enough to take him the I'll be real excited. But for now if anyone argues my ranking on him it'll be kind of tough to defend my position since it's all projection. I'd think he's a guy you'd have to wait until at least second half of the season to start though. Then I'm going to throw in Ward. Dynamic runner and he's got a consistently high 60s completion rate. As that PFF top 10 article mentions, he's been good against pressure with a 109 QB rating against the blitz. Decent intermediate and deep ball. He's 5'11" 185, so not nearly the same readiness to stand up to NFL punishment as Watson. That could be the make or break factor with him. He's got the Senior Bowl to make his case though, where most of these guys won't. I'll say he goes before Webb and Kaaya for now, somewhere in the second. So, lots of words but here's how I'd think they go off the board now, if Allen is in the draft: Trubisky Allen (potentially as high as the Bears) Kizer Watson Mahomes Ward Webb Kaaya

Yeah that's pretty low on Trubisky. Some of the other UNC posters I've seen are lower on him too. He had great receivers and took an 11-3 team to 8-5, so there had to be a lot of choking in there that you saw and I didn't. And, after avoiding the interception all season, had a pretty bad bowl game with them. But even in that game he lead an impressive last drive for the TD, and had two TD passes on that drive nullified by penalty before he got the one that counted. So even some solid work there I thought. I'm with you though that he wouldn't be ready to start day 1, but I'd be cool with that. I'd probably just sign Hoyer and let him play most of the season until Trubisky is ready. But man, the more I watch of him the more I see top caliber NFL tools. Accuracy, touch, pocket presence, and mobility are probably my favorite things about him. But then you've got the deep ball (see 2:32, 2:51, and 3:51) He seems to have a great knack for hitting receivers in stride with room to run on all levels. Puts zip on it but it's usually catchable. I didn't watch close to all the games, but I have watched all the passing plays from a few games. So I'm not completely just up the ass of a highlight video, but I'll admit I don't know how consistent his mechanics were or what his decision making was like all year, whether he went through reads and whatever. But man...those tools. Glad it's not my decision though because I am quite sure I don't know what I'm talking about. Mahomes wouldn't be a bad second round option. Just no Kaaya.

I just think for this year it doesn't matter whether QB class overall is average or below, as a whole. I personally think Trubisky could be an impact player. I think Josh Allen could be an impact player, although not right away. If Pace evaluates Trubisky to be a Romo or Mariota type QB and he's available then it doesn't matter that whether Watson et al stack up to next year's class. I'm not sold yet on Kizer or Watson there. I think I would be with Josh Allen. But I'm not pushing any of these guys with the thought that they're going to be anything less than an upper tier QB in their primes. Now if you go Taylor or McCarron or JG then I think that's your guy and you don't even worry about drafting a QB in the top 4 rounds.

The Bears were a lot better than people are admitting. They had a horrible turnover ratio but they did a lot of stuff pretty well. Get some ball hawking secondary guys and a QB who isn't a turnover machine and it could turn around. This post by a guy named Starion on the Chi City Sports forum says it pretty well:

And that would all be really short sided if you thought there was a potential franchise QB who just wasnt going to produce enough in year 1 to cool the hot seat. Won't argue that. But if your job is on the line, you're going to do what it takes to keep it. Especially in a scenario where you can reason it out by saying next years crop of QB's obliterates this years. But if you think you're close to being a playoff team and get a guy for QB who can win you a bunch of games what's it matter how many QBs are at the top of the draft in 2018? Just my opinion, but Jackson looks like he's got a really inaccurate arm and he's pretty skinny to be running around. And I haven't looked at him a lot but I've seen a lot of people saying Browning doesn't have the arm for the NFL. Maybe the guys next year are great, but they haven't but put up to the scrutiny of how well they'll translate to the NFL. Right now, the only guys I've seen as consensus top picks without big warts are Rosen and Darnold. Maybe Josh Allen will be in there if he doesn't declare this year, maybe Falk will jump, maybe some other guys have good years. I won't pretend to be an expert on next year's QB class, but if there really are some great guys I'd anticipate them going top 5-10. I think the Bears will be drafting in the back half of round 1 if they don't draft and start a rookie (and if no huge injury wave hits). So thI n you're back to Raw's scenario of having to take the 3-5th QB on the board at the Bears pick. Maybe the 2018 QB class is so much better than the 2017 class that the 3-5th guy next year is as good as the 1-2 guy this year but that doesn't seem likely. And I probably covered this in my thousand posts yesterday, but I'm hoping Pace isn't forced to make this pick based on how hot his seat is. This ownership group hasn't been the best at identifying GM talent in the past, so I have little confidence they'd find an upgrade. As such, if hope Pace can just build his team the way that makes the most sense long term.

Also, for those who aren't familiar, Josh Allen comes from a pro-style offense and has the same coach as Wentz did last year. He wasn't supposed to come out , but he was mocked to the Bears a couple days ago by Matt Miller, so he may be thinking about it. O-line not good, receivers not good, but rocket arm. Throwing on the run his tools are Cutler level, but like Cutler he's still way too confident in his ability to make plays down the field and his default seems to be to try and create time for the downfield pass. The big benefit would be to get to him before he lets all these Cutler-esque habits get too ingrained. Maybe show him tape after tape of Cutler making the wrong decision.

Take a look at Josh Allen. There's tape of all his plays from the Boise State, San Diego, an New Mexico games. Or Lombardi just did a tape review on him last night that's pretty good. You'll definitely come away impressed with tools, it's just whether his decision making and intangibles is up to par. I'm not an evaluator, so I can't say he's worth of the number 3 pick. But his tools are top notch, and there's a lot of time for combine/pro day/industry analysis that would put him in the mix for top 5 pick. He's likely a red shirt guy, but could eventually develop into a top QB in the NFL. I love Jonathan Allen (have watch a lot of stuff on him) and could even see Hooker as an option (although I'd still currently take Allen over him). But a lot of what I've written so far is basically a question of if Josh Allen is deemed roughly worthy of the 3 pick. He provides nothing in the short term, they're likely be some growing pains, and you'd be passing on elite talent in Jonathan Allen. If they think Allen has a high likelihood of eventually being above average QB with potential for more then I'd probably roll the dice.

And I've said nothing of barbecuing them for missing the playoffs. Improvement is what they need and what should be expected. There is no reason this team can't be in the wild card hunt, rookie QB or no. They should be able to put out a winning team next year. If they do well on paper this offseason but still lose 10 games next year, then they probably didn't actually do well this offseason. This is all fine. I'm good with expecting to be in the playoff hunt next year. I think they've got the talent base to do it, a ton of cap space, and drafting at the top of every round. So yes, they should be able to be decent next year. My main thing is that next year shouldn't be the ultimate goal. The goal is putting together a consistent winner and winning a super bowl. Stack talent through the draft, then you'll be able to resign them and it does become a little more like baseball. I'm not trying to give a pass if they're not good next year, but my main measuring stick will be how good the young core is and how well they execute on this QB situation. And I don't really mean to make this into a discussion of how good Pace is (particularly if you're ok with how he's done so far) and more about what I expect out of the QB/#3 pick decision. If they think there's a good QB there but he won't contribute much in 2017 I'd rather they take that than take defense in an attempt to be good for 2017.

Stop pretending this is baseball and akin to the Cubs situation. I'm not asking for Pace's head. I'm fine with what he's done so far. I see signs of improvement. But it's time to move beyond signs and actually see some results. If you call expecting improvement by year 3 short-term thinking I can't wait to hear what you'd like to see out of the Trump administration. Yeah, I'm not saying 3 years is short term. I mean we're at where we're at, so looking ahead they can think short term or long term with QB spot in particular. I'm sure Fox wants to go with Cutler or trade or something to get wins next year. If they do that and draft D in the first round then I agree they need to be over .500 next year. But if they draft a QB and play him for more than couple games then I wouldn't barbeque them for missing the playoffs.

Yeah I've got a couple tattoos and I'm not a prude when it comes to them. But QB is about making decisions. This is like wearing a pick 6 across your chest. http://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/086/039/McCarron-Tats_crop_north.jpg?w=630&h=420&q=75

1st and 2nd round picks should be starting year 1 and significant contributors by year 2 and 3. I'm good with that. So by year 3 you've got 4 players who should be significant contributors and 2 decent starters. Then you've got 16 other positions that need to be filled and a QB that is by far the most important player. The cupboard was bare when Pace started and he wanted to build a 3-4 defense. He's drafted Goldman, Whitehair, Howard, and Floyd who all look like significant contributors and White who was a top 5 prospect on most boards who could still be good. Kwitkowski could still be decent, Grasu maybe once he comes back from injury, and not sure we know what the secondary players were from last draft. There's not much in FA any year in the NFL, but he got some decent starters there last year (Hicks, Sitton, Trevathan, Freeman). Then he found Meredith. That's not bad. Given that there was next to nothing that anyone would have wanted to keep from the 2014 team I think Pace has done a lot to rebuild this team. Put a healthy mediocre Cutler on the team all year and they're not close to a 3 win team. With relative health and a decent QB (Cutler level) they're probably at least .500 next year. But if you take a QB top 3 and play him for a significant portion of the season they're not going to take a big step forward wins-wise. If that specific scenario plays out, and Pace has another good draft I'm going to be aboard keeping him. *edit to put Freeman into my good FAs list

I really couldn't disagree more. Well, not entirely...of course we'd all be happy if you told us we'd hit on a QB with a QB pick in the 1st. But the whole reason people are against it is because of how risky 1st round QBs are and how often teams talk themselves into guys who bust. It's kind of the "horsefeathers pitchers" equivalent of the NFL draft. If you take the risk out of the equation, that makes it a really easy decision. I'm fine with a mid-round lottery ticket on a QB because I think a big part of the finding QB thing is lucky sorcery. Yeah, scouting definitely plays a role, but I think your best shot is taking as many shots at them as you can until something sticks on the wall. You can find much more likely/"safe" impact at other positions with the #3 pick. Sure, if the concept is that you're talking yourself into a QB in the top 5 then it's not a good idea. But I like Trubisky and I think he's not a reach. The analysis that was put out last week was on QBs taken after the top 2 picks. Like Raw was pushing, a lot of those guys that failed were the 3rd or 4th QBs taken. The ones taken at the very top have a decent hit rate. If the Bears can get their top guy or are sold on their number 2 guy then this is probably the best shot they're going to get. If they go mid-round guy it's almost a hope and a prayer. It's the most important position in sports and the quicker they find it the better. Taking one guy you're not fully sold on each year seems like a great way to stack mediocre players and still not have anything at the position 3-4 years from now.

I kind of like the concept of Trubisky, but the lack of playing time is a real concern, especially as it pertains to this NFL readiness. A QB can get ruined with bad coaching and being thrown into a bad situation. I also hate bringing in any other rumored veteran QB, with the possible exception of Taylor. Yeah, I think they could ruin Trubisky if they bring him in and have this coaching staff try and develop him, but it might be a necessity based on timing. Ideal might be to draft the QB next year and let a new staff work with him, but I doubt they'll be drafting high enough next year to grab the QB they want. So I'd just take the QB now and hope for the best on the development piece.

I'm not saying they're doing that, I'm saying you're doing that. Focus on next year, be cool with keeping Jay around and not finding that great QB. You'll be stuck in the mud forever. This is year 3 you goober. This isn't the third quarter of them having control. You are acting as if they just stepped into the job and should be given a lot of leeway. They've been around for a long time, the results have gotten worse under their watch and they need to show improvement now. Pace had a draft this year that was better than probably any year of Angelo and definitely better than Emery. They sucked this year, but had a lot of great offensive improvement. The record was heavily driven by injuries, bad backup QB play, and losing close games. Pace has drafted legit building blocks on both sides of the ball right now and in my opinion are in a way better spot than 3 years ago. Who cares if this is the third quarter or whatever. My quarter by quarter corporate thing was an analogy to illustrate that when you look for short term improvement you often give up long term sustainable success. You may think football is nothing like baseball, but I'd disagree. FA is not the way to build a good team, rookies take time to develop, and if you've got zero building blocks you can't create a super bowl contender in 2 years. Maybe you can sell out to get to the playoffs by keeping a long term loser like Cutler and building up the defense, but in my opinion you do everything you can to try and be a super bowl contender down the road. That might mean drafting a QB this year, maybe playing him, and maybe not winning more than 7 games this year. This is a QB league, and if you're going to develop a guy then eventually you're going to lose some games with him. I'd be good with starting that process now. Especially if Pace is putting other quality players in place.

Bad ordering of my words there. I mean I don't know a ton about McCarron, so want to learn more before offering a full opinion. But character/leadership is big for QBs and having a big dumb chest tattoo could speak to the kind of guy he is. I slipped that line in there at the end as sort of a joke though, and it really doesn't play huge into my evaluation. But I typed a lot of stuff there. Was there anything else that jumped out? ridiculous Again, I'm not making McCarron my top option, just something I threw in there because I read what Polian said. The chest tattoo thing was jokey but this is a solid lesson that when you make a throw away comment that it's dumb idea to go back and defend. So I'm done doing that. My top option would be get Trubisky. Number 2 is probably going after Josh Allen if he enters the draft. Still evaluating the other guys at 3 or the possibility of trading down in the top 10 to grab Kizer or Watson. Any of the trades would be behind that. McCarron is an option but not one I've fully vetted. He's got an ugly chest tattoo but we'll just say that's not a part of my evaluation. Feel free to respond on any of that other stuff though.

I'm not saying they're doing that, I'm saying you're doing that. Focus on next year, be cool with keeping Jay around and not finding that great QB. You'll be stuck in the mud forever.

Bad ordering of my words there. I mean I don't know a ton about McCarron, so want to learn more before offering a full opinion. But character/leadership is big for QBs and having a big dumb chest tattoo could speak to the kind of guy he is. I slipped that line in there at the end as sort of a joke though, and it really doesn't play huge into my evaluation. But I typed a lot of stuff there. Was there anything else that jumped out?

I'm saying I don't care if they get to the 9-10 win territory next year. And if they don't, if they draft a QB, play him for half the season and end up with 6 wins or something and the QB looks good for the future that's fine for me. If they go defense in the first, play Cutler another year, and end up with 9-10 wins but have no QB for the future I think that's a worse position. So basically, I think the fans ought to be taking a long term view. The "you've done a bad job building a team" if it takes more than 3 years to get to winning is dumb. There is pretty much just Kyle Long as a holdover from pre-Pace, and they've got no QB. If you want to say that it's a really bad job building a team if they don't create an entire playoff team with 3 drafts and free agency then I think you've got some high expectations. This is like a public company, where you can run it looking just at the next quarter to appease the shareholders and keep your job, or you can look at the long term view. A lot of times you exchange mediocre for the short and long term for good in the long term. If they get a QB that can win for the long term then you've basically got something the Bears have never had, and set up to be really good when the rest of the team is ready. This would be my preferred route.