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BA's list is out, to be honest I'm not a fan. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269148.html No Kyler Burke is just...I mean wow. And Logan Watkins at 7? FTH?

What I notice more than anything is that the facts about guys will be right, like "he throws a 60 FB, 60 CB, 50 change" or "has potential 30 HR power" but for some reason when the rankings come out the guys end up way higher than they should be. For instance, a few years ago Ian Kennedy was a top 50 prospect despite the fact that he was clearly a mediocre finesse pitcher. BA noted that his only above average pitch was his change, but still ranked him well above guys that did better in the minors and/or had higher ceilings for seemingly no reason.

I agree with you on the Bradley thing, but that's simply not going to happen. I think when talking about this winter we need to just assume he's gone. Whether or not that's the right move is a completely different debate. As far as Byrd goes, I have to disagree with you wholeheartedly. Defensively, he has a good reputation, and according to UZR he's almost exactly average, with a -6 last year, +5.9 in 08, and a +.3 in 2007At worst he's probably a little above average, which considering he would allow us to move Fukudome to RF he would still give us a pretty good net gain in the outfield defensively. And he's a type B FA, so there is no cost in players for him. As for Home/Road splits, I think those might be a minor issue, but nothing huge. First off, there's generally a gap in guys with regards to home/road splits. For instance, in 2009 the average MLB player hit .267/.340/.429 at home and .258/.326/.406 away. Also, Wrigley Field is a pretty damn good hitters park too, so there shouldn't be much of a dropoff going from Texas to Wrigley. I mean he's not a guy to go "Oh my God it's Marlon Byrd!" But he's a pretty good player that can probably be gotten relatively inexpensively. When a guy plays in Texas and has huge splits, it's an issue. If we got Byrd I think we could expect like a .750 OPS. Arlington kind of has Coors syndrome, where home/road splits are more pronounced because the other parks in the division heavily favor pitchers. I think you guys are putting more stock into home/road splits than you really ought to.

I agree with you on the Bradley thing, but that's simply not going to happen. I think when talking about this winter we need to just assume he's gone. Whether or not that's the right move is a completely different debate. As far as Byrd goes, I have to disagree with you wholeheartedly. Defensively, he has a good reputation, and according to UZR he's almost exactly average, with a -6 last year, +5.9 in 08, and a +.3 in 2007At worst he's probably a little above average, which considering he would allow us to move Fukudome to RF he would still give us a pretty good net gain in the outfield defensively. And he's a type B FA, so there is no cost in players for him. As for Home/Road splits, I think those might be a minor issue, but nothing huge. First off, there's generally a gap in guys with regards to home/road splits. For instance, in 2009 the average MLB player hit .267/.340/.429 at home and .258/.326/.406 away. Also, Wrigley Field is a pretty damn good hitters park too, so there shouldn't be much of a dropoff going from Texas to Wrigley. I mean he's not a guy to go "Oh my God it's Marlon Byrd!" But he's a pretty good player that can probably be gotten relatively inexpensively. Edit: I meant at worst he's a little below average, my bad.

I realize a lot of it's sarcastic, but I don't see the problem some people have with Byrd. The guy's averaged 2.8 WAR the past 3 years, which if you trust fangraphs makes him about a 12 million dollar a year guy. And I believe MLB.com said that the deal he's looking for is expected to only be about 3/24. I think too many people think of him from his pre-Texas days, he's been a legitimately good player each of the last 3 years, and is most likely looking at a contract that undervalues him. I mean he shouldn't be Plan A, but he would help the Cubs.

For pitchers, I think it would have to be Archer or one of the 09 draftees, most likely Kirk or Raley. Although my money's really on Archer. His walk rate keeps improving, and if he can get it down to something like 4.5BB/9 then that along with the rest of the package would be very scary. I mean electric stuff, around a 9K/9, and a 4.5BB/9, with a crazy low homerun rate is a recipe for success. For hitters, I think it'd have to be either an 09 draftee or one of the Koreans. Of the Koreans I could see Ha doing things, as hopefully a year getting acclimated in the U.S. did him a lot of good. I could see Darvill could doing something too, apparently his problems coming into the draft were that A) He's Raw, and B) He's weak. So a winter of focusing on baseball and more importantly beefing up so pitchers can't knock the bat out of his hands could lead to him making a big jump forward next year. And I'm a big Matt Cerda fan, I'd like to see him play a healthy season and see what he can do.

I know it's not Cubs related, but I am just now watching the Rising Stars game on DVR and :shock: @ Tanner Scheppers

i'm interested to see what the offseason publications have to say about him. last year he was an interesting prospect in rookie ball who hardly anybody had seen play. this year he played the full year at two more prominent levels, became one of the most highly-regarded prospects in the system, and now is tearing it up in the AFL, which any respectable scouting service is watching closely. there should be a lot more info and opinion on him now. Yeah, I'm really wanting to see what people say too. Last year about all we had to go on was a small writeup in BA and a Fleita interview where he gushed over him. We should hopefully have a better read on him this winter. I believe you're referring to a Wilken interview, not Fleita. Oh yeah, I think you're right.

Oh, I agree that I'm certainly not expecting Hanley or A-Rod power from Castro, but I don't think you can ever expect that kind of translation of power no matter how raw a player is considered. I just think it's a bit early to write off the power potential of a wiry 19 year old playing at AA. I'm interested to see what Callis has to say in his write-up in a couple weeks. Oh okay, I get what you're saying now.

i'm interested to see what the offseason publications have to say about him. last year he was an interesting prospect in rookie ball who hardly anybody had seen play. this year he played the full year at two more prominent levels, became one of the most highly-regarded prospects in the system, and now is tearing it up in the AFL, which any respectable scouting service is watching closely. there should be a lot more info and opinion on him now. Yeah, I'm really wanting to see what people say too. Last year about all we had to go on was a small writeup in BA and a Fleita interview where he gushed over him. We should hopefully have a better read on him this winter.

So Castro = ARod. I'm fine with that. If Castro continues to hit for contact like he has, and if he grows to 6'3 195lbs like some people think. And if his power potential becomes Soriano like, like what people say, then maybe a Arod type of player is not far off. I wouldn't say Arod necessarily but maybe closer to hanley. I think Jeter with better D is the absolute ceiling for Castro. Great hitter for average, 20 HR power, and 25 steals at a good rate. I don't see any way in hell he pulls off A-Rod or Hanley, though I'd love for him to prove me wrong. Hanley ISOd 128 in A ball when he was Castro's age. (Castro ISOd 108 at AA, 93 total last season) Hanley was more projectable though. After 2004 BA wrote this about him: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/features/04top10s/redsox.html Keith Law is the only person I've seen write that Castro has the potential for anything more than average power. I don't think we can expect Hanley power from Castro, and sure as hell not Arod power. Again though, I'd love for him to prove me wrong.

Jeter's an average walker, 9% of his PA's versus the league average of 8.9%. I think that's doable for Castro. But yeah, Nomar with less power does sound more reasonable.

So Castro = ARod. I'm fine with that. If Castro continues to hit for contact like he has, and if he grows to 6'3 195lbs like some people think. And if his power potential becomes Soriano like, like what people say, then maybe a Arod type of player is not far off. I wouldn't say Arod necessarily but maybe closer to hanley. I think Jeter with better D is the absolute ceiling for Castro. Great hitter for average, 20 HR power, and 25 steals at a good rate. I don't see any way in hell he pulls off A-Rod or Hanley, though I'd love for him to prove me wrong.

A triple and a homer is nice says Goldstein, but where is the double and single he needs with it? :D On a side note(and it's actually very cool in a way that it is just that) but Vitters has hit damn well in his own right this fall. I'm starting to wonder if we see him start at Tennessee instead of repeating Daytona. I would think and hope he'll do this year similar to what he did last year. Open up at Daytona, and if/when he does well go up to Tenn in June. He still has big patience issues.

And he just tripled. Maybe we should email Goldstein and get him to reverse-jinx Vitters into walking more.

I know this is about what we expected but still thought it was worth posting.

Wasn't he Cashner insurance, the same way Sanchez was Vitters insurance?

Keith Law really really likes Starlin Castro The ball comes off his bat like Soriano? Wow.

Yeah, the AFL is roughly AA caliber, so Vitters doing well is very encouraging. Although obviously you'd really like to see some more walks.

I agree, this is kind of reminding me of his man-crush on Lars Anderson.

I'm starting to wonder how high Brett Jackson is going to be. Yeah, we might be talking top 50. Callis is absolutely gushing over him at almost every opportunity.

Ummmm....

I saw someone, Jim Callis I believe, say that his power and contact are poth potential 70's, so if that's true then the sky's pretty much the limit.

I really hope we don't see him next year for anything more than a September callup. He might be able to handle coming up and holding his own if he had too, but I hope that the Cubs hold him down until 2011, when he can hopefully come up and excel as a rookie. Also, if Castro is up next year it probably means the major league team's middle infield is still a mess.

Yeah, from everything I've read the vast majority of the time it's not a repeatable skill. And this data kind of backs that up; Antigua, Cales(AA) and Russell(Both) were the only guys more than 1 sd away from the mean. And Russell's the only guy that maintained bad numbers over a full season.