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Aaron_Kennelly

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Everything posted by Aaron_Kennelly

  1. We could split our team in half and finish first and second in the division.
  2. He will almost certainly be the starting catcher at this point. He's even doing much better behind the plate in terms of blocking pitches, not as much with his arm,. He's actually also doing better with his arm. Since August 3rd, he's thrown out 4 of 11 attempted base stealers. He was 3/52 before that. I saw a tweet from one of the Statcast guys recently on one of his CS that he had a league average pop time and league average arm strength on that throw. I don't want to take much from a 25 PA sample or however long it is that he's been hot. But he looks much better. And I think he is a good bet to have a nice bounce-back year next year. I really do think he was playing injured earlier this year. I don't think this has necessarily been an issue of him aging. If you look at aging curves, a couple of the big things that stick out are K-rate and BB-rate. When guys lose it, those things plummet. It's a good indicator that a guy is toast and not coming back. It's not the same for every guy. But, if you look at things like power, you'll see a more gradual decrease, starting even earlier, while the player is still useful. It's not quite as noticeable. And you can still survive losing bits of your game at a time. When you start striking out at unprecedented rates and quit drawing walks, you become useless really fast. Just look at some of the old guys that have been horrible this year and are packing it up: Ryan Howard, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira. Dead giveaways. Miggy's year has been a little more strange. The ISO is down from last year, but it's still up from where it was the two years prior. It seems kinda normal. His power might keep slowly slipping away. But it hasn't outright plummeted. In fact, his HR/FB is above his career average. If you look at his batted ball profile, some things become evident. His GB% is way up above where it's always been. You don't want that kind of guy hitting more ground balls: Slow, chubby, lefty pull-hitter with power to carry the ball over the fence. His hard-hit rate is also down a lot. He just hasn't hit the ball like you'd like. But, if we look at those tell-tale signs of aging... he's been fantastic in that department. He's walking more. His O-Swing% was trending in the wrong direction, until this year, as he's shown a keener eye than ever. His contact% was way down last year, and he's brought it way up, above league average even. Those things are encouraging to me. It tells me his main problem was that something was jacked up with his swing. It could be because he was aging. But it doesn't jump out at me like that. It could be any number of things -- like with Jason Heyward. And the main reason I think he was playing injured was because of those throws we saw from him. My goodness, that was an awful time. Like, there's no way that was just from aging. You don't go from being a competent major league catcher to throwing six-hoppers into second overnight. Right? And if we look at his whole season, starting in Spring Training, it looks an awful lot like he was hiding an injury. Not that we can take much from Spring Training stats, but he was amazing this Spring. He hit for pop. He hit for average. He didn't strike out. He was taking walks. Then, he was mashing the ball the first two weeks of the season. He hit a homer on opening day. He hit two balls off the top of the wall in Arizona, in a deep part of the park. He was racking up hits and walks. Then he tweaked something and went on the DL like 10 days later, admitting that he was trying to play through it. He was horrible for that week or two he was trying to play through it. Then, he rushes back like two weeks later, while Willson is tearing through AAA and fans are clamoring for him to be called up. And from that moment on, Miggy was horrible -- at everything. He couldn't hit; he couldn't throw; he couldn't block pitches. And now he looks normal. Maybe it is aging. Maybe it's just the start of his decline. And you can't just dismiss it as him being injured. That's part of the problem of aging. Your body breaks down and you can't stay healthy. So we can't just assume, "Oh he was injured, but now he'll be fine forever." We may go through the same horsefeathers next year. But, if he can rebound a little, he's still a useful player. His arm is still going to be pretty bad. That part of his game is probably gone for good. But, a healthy, normal Miggy can still hit some, especially if he carries over something close to this type of plate discipline. And, according to StatCorner, he's been the best pitch framer in the majors this year, on a per game basis, and by a healthy margin. Anyway... I'm back on board with Miggy for one last hurrah next year. And maybe I should have just made this an article.
  3. They should probably worry about just finishing over .500 at this point.
  4. Scooter seems to have a lot of problems picking up a baseball and throwing it 20 feet.
  5. Yep. Get him on the playoff roster!
  6. I've been saying that for a couple years now. But the guy took a month off and now hasn't hit for a month since coming back. I'd try and get him more playing time this week to see if he can get it together but I'm not sure he can hit anymore. It's not an attitude thing but taking a month off to hang at the jersey shore hasn't helped and could have had a real negative effect. Yeah, but Coghlan doesn't have an excuse for not being able to hit.
  7. It's easy to take it for granted when you are just living in the moment. And then the dark days of 2011 sneak up on you fast and slap you in the face. The good part about this squad is that with all the young talent, we're set up like we've never been before. We'll get our money's worth. Just get the World Series part out of the way this year, please, I beg you.
  8. I took that to mean that Schwarber is coming back to hit monster World Series dongs.
  9. It always sucks when it ends, unless it ends in the good way. And if that happens, I'll... I don't know, but it will be amazing. But this team is so fun and has given us so many great moments, and there are more to come. I can't wait for the post-season. I know it is a crap shoot, but I doubt I'll ever feel more confident going into the playoffs. Let's go!
  10. http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/ron-moved.gif
  11. Yes, but before backing in, we also switched gears to go forward and run over their lifeless bodies several times. There's no shame in partying the next day, when there is still half a month of baseball left. Thank you. 93 wins on 9/15 isn't backing in. Sorry they couldn't sequence their wins in a manner to clinch on the field. Yep. You never back into a 17-game lead. To further continue the metaphor... We backed in our sleek, luxurious sports car, careful not to put any scratches on it. And everyone else is in their Ford Pintos, still sputtering down the road.
  12. that about sums it up, as it just isn't the same backing into a win like that Yes, but before backing in, we also switched gears to go forward and run over their lifeless bodies several times. There's no shame in partying the next day, when there is still half a month of baseball left.
  13. Crap. At least the Cardinals are going to lose an important game?
  14. I'm just going to start typing horsefeathers, so as to not take any chances.
  15. Javy probably You must be ahead in a count to strike out after being ahead in a count.
  16. They've got this. They want to dance. Right now.
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