Guys that rely on elite home run suppression scare me a lot, too. Just to throw Matt Cain out there as an example, when that goes, things can get ugly quickly. I'd much prefer a high strikeout guy, who, when he loses a little from what makes him great, goes from a 10 K/9 guy to a 9 K/9 guy. HR/FB seems a little different to me. It's so unstable, because it's a small amount of events each season. And huge spikes in it seem a lot more probable. That being said, I do think it is a skill. And I do think it is one Fulmer possesses. He's very Hendricks-like with his batted ball profile. High GB%. And when the ball is hit in the air, it is at a higher launch angle than other ground ball pitchers, and it is at a low exit velocity. And he gets a lot of pop ups. I think he is a legit soft contact guy. I do think his HR rate this year is a bit of an anomaly. But I also think he should be able to suppress homers and BABIP going forward. I think he'll have a lower FIP than xFIP and a lower ERA than FIP. And I think he can continue doing so for a while. He does possess an a elite ability to limit walks, too. And his strikeout rate isn't quite in Ivan Nova territory. Going back to Matt Cain, he was able to maintain his elite home run suppression for quite a while, and I think Fulmer is better than him. Plus, Fulmer is throwing 96. He's not teetering on the edge at 92, like Cain was. Buying in on Fulmer at 24 seems like a safe bet that you can get him at his best for a while. And, like TT said, he's been doing this in the AL. Give him a bump by moving to the NL, and give him a better defense and better pitch framing, and he could lose some of that hard contact suppression and still be really good.