I really have no problem going into next year with basically what we started this year with, but Montgomery and Quintana replacing Lackey and Arrieta. If you can sign Otani, bonus. Look to bolster the ration at next years trade deadline. The question is whether you can count on Lester being 2016 Lester or 2017 Lester. A rotation of Hendricks, Quintana, 2017 Lester, Montgomery, 5th starter is going to be a decent staff but not great and very low on depth. I'm 99.5% sure this season has been a mirage for Lester. Two Weird Baseball short outings have helped contribute to it. But, he's been incredibly unlucky. Just a shitty, shitty year to follow up a year he was probably a little lucky. Same guy. And he'll be closer to the 2016 version next year. A few things: Of 88 pitchers that have thrown 2,000 pitches this year, the difference between his xwOBA and wOBA is 5th worst. This is with a really good defense behind him, too. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=500#results Of those same pitchers, he ranks 15th best in xwOBA: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2000&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results His xwOBA is .292. It was .278 last year. He's been hit a little harder because his command has been off at times. And he's missed the strike zone a little more. His walk rate is up a tad. But, if you look at his batted ball profile, his GB%, FB%, LD% are all basically exactly the same. He hasn't gotten quite as many pop-ups. But his hard% is the same. Soft% is actually up. He's actually getting more swings and misses. Contact% is down a good amount, especially on pitches in the zone. He's also getting batters to chase more out of the zone. There's really no reason for him to be struggling this much. His peripherals look fine, and even better in a number of areas. His BABIP is way too high. His LOB% is 2nd worst in the league. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,a His HR rate is fluky high, too. He ranks 16th of 88 pitchers that have thrown at least 2,000 pitchers in terms of lowest % of pitches that are barreled: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2017%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=6%7C&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=2000&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=asc&min_abs=0#results But he ranks 64th of 89 pitchers that have thrown 120 innings in HR/9: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=120&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,a&page=3_30 Complete fluke. Still the same Jon. He'll be an ace again next year.