Aaron Kennelly

Confirmed Cardinals fan.

Yeah, he is definitely the more likely to repeat his performance or come close to it. His walk and K-rates are also much more conducive for sustained success. But, he also isn't really going to give you any value outside of with his bat. He's not much of a base runner or defender and is stuck in a corner outfield spot. Much like Soler, he's gonna have to hit a lot to have value. Grichuk, I think is a near certainty to see some serious regression this year, though.

It drives me nuts when people hem and haw about the Cardinals' luck and "pixie dust," but last year really was a case of that kind of coming true, both in terms of their offense and pitching. It wasn't a matter of something teachable or signable; they had a LOT of luck. And as unlikely as it was for them to pull that off for most of one season, it becomes absurdly unlikely to think they'll somehow do it again the next season. The Cardinals didn't stumble across some mystic equation that cracks the BABIP code or allows them to strand runners practically at will. If the Cardinals win more than 85 games this year, it's not going to be a repeat of how they won as many games as they did last year. BABIP can be a huge factor. Some guys are good enough to maintain success with a high BABIP, but most tend to come back to Earth. It's not like they're being projected to fall off of a cliff. And people think you're a "secret" Cardinals fan because basically all you post about is how good you think the Cardinals will be. To expand, these guys didn't even carry BABIPs like that in the minors. There are hundreds of ABs we have data on them from their time in the minors, and they didn't prove to be some of those guys that can maintain high BABIPs during this time. Why should we believe that they suddenly figured out how to do so at a much tougher level? Also, it's not just the BABIP. They also carried higher ISOs than they ever did in the minors. And, I mean, it was like 250-300 PAs for both of them. If you want to draw some sweeping conclusion from 300 plate appearances that these guys just suddenly improved everything about their offensive games, despite facing tougher pitching than they've ever seen, then, sure, go for it. But, I'm a little more reticent to do so, as are the projections. Also, these guys are like 25 and were never top prospects. Sure, they might pull a Matt Carpenter. But, I'm really not that worried. Give me the 21- 22-year-old kids like Schwarber and Russell that have always been viewed as uber-talents and have always put up monster numbers throughout the minors as more likely to exceed projections. And even if Piscotty and Grichuk are to maintain those excessive spikes in BABIP and ISO and replicate their success from last year, who gives a horsefeathers? The Cards would still be, like, 10 games worse than us. In conclusion, I have to agree, if this guy is a Cubs fan and has been paying attention to any of the events of the last year or so, then he is either completely un-discerning or the world's biggest pessimist. Otherwise, he is definitely a Cardinals fan.

Big fan of Muni. Perfect 26th man to add some comic relief when LeStella makes an inevitable DL stint.

So if I were a secret Cardinal fan what would my motivation have been for being really enthusiastic after the 2004 Nomar acquisition? Or the 2007 Rammy walkoff again Francisco Cordero? I'm simply a realistic Cub fan who knows that St Louis has one of the best track records in sports when it comes to developing and acquiring talent. I think the idea of practically writing them off before the season starts is risky to put it mildly. Also I'm trying to get a gauge on the reasoning behind the massive dropoff in production from Piscotty and Grichuk. It seems like it's mainly based on their high BABIP's last season. Have you looked at the talent we have developed and acquired recently? Hell, we acquired their talent this off-season.

Yes. Grimm is also a doppelganger for Bryce Harper.

"Not because he's done anything short of a marvelous job, but because some FO turnover is good" Wow, this dude is just talking out of his ass. What does this even mean? Yes, so-and-so has done a marvelous job, but maybe we should roll the dice with some new blood? What!? It just makes no sense. If you said, something like, "Theo's only been to the playoffs once, has lost more games than he has won here, and he just got lucky with having a bunch of high draft picks," then I could say, "I think you are a fool, but at least your opinion has validity." This? This is just utter nonsense.

$Texas

As punishment, they should be forced to give their best pitcher and best position player to their biggest rival.

I don't care if he wrote it or not, or how much of a hand he had in it -- it still was very touching and made me sad. I haven't been sad about him leaving... like, at all. Now I am. It's not that I didn't like him or wanted to see him gone or anything. I've just been kinda detached. Good baseball move; thanks for your time, Starlin. On to the next one. But that made me all sentimental and emotional, and made me feel all those other horrible, you know, feelings.

"Here are a bunch of guys on the Cardinals with red flags; I think things will all go swimmingly." Come on, dude. Even if those guys all have healthy seasons and replicate their dubious success from last year, the Cubs are still much better.

While you could argue that Baez's stats only looked decent because of BABIP, he seemed to react fine to sporadic playing time in September and in the playoffs last year.

Yes!

How, exactly, do they plan on catching back up with us? All of the remaining pitching options kinda suck. If they are standing pat with their position players and add a Mike Leake, we probably enter the season as the favorite by about ten games.

Maybe they were holding out on his presser to wait for Heyward to sign so they can do a dual one to shove it down St. Louis' throat They should hold it in St. Louis. Maybe at the local Camaro dealership.

yeah my hope there is basically hopefully it won't stay THAT bad also it has to help a little that his arm is so good that he keeps other teams from taking chances on the bases right?!!? There is that hope. But, at the end of the day, he's a corner outfielder that is going to be bad defensively -- though maybe not that bad -- again, mind you, in a corner outfield spot. So he's going to need to hit the [expletive] out of the ball. This needs to be the main worry.

Instead of being talked about in November and December, we are now going to be the team everyone talks about from January until December.

Kinda like when Addison went down against the Cards in the playoffs and we were like, "Oh, what's that? We lost our stud, young shortstop? How about this other one goes 4-5 and hits a three-run dong to finish you guys off?"

I don't think even Kyle would go so far as to pin 2011 on Theo.

Starlin imitating Bryant on the throw over to Rizzo was hilarious.

I meant "make the rotation if there is an injury and they are forced into action." Basically, I am happy with Hammel and Warren as 5 & 6. After that, they all kinda suck as starters. But I don't see the need for three kinda-shitty-as-starters swing men, who are decent in the pen. If we have to use Clayton Richard or Trevor Cahill as a starter, we will have much bigger problems than Travis Wood no longer being on the roster.

I picked both pitchers, just to make Kyle mad. In reality, I think Wood is an easy choice. We still have plenty of rotation depth with Hammel, and now Warren, Cahill, and Ricahrd. I don't see why we would need 9 guys that could make the rotation. That's superfluous. If it gets past Cahill, then we would be in pretty big trouble anyway. And, still, at that point, we could make a trade in-season for a placeholder, or go all-out and make a trade for a legitimate rotation piece.

We are going to take so many [expletive] walks next year. I can't wait. Just get me Heyward, too. I want to see if we can go the whole season without an opposing starting pitcher seeing the sixth inning.

You're forgetting that we also addressed one of the most glaring needs -- rotation depth -- with this swap also.