Cubswin11

Technically this has already happened. Lester, Chatwood, Quintana, Chafin, Martinez, Almora, Tepera, Cotton, Megill, Sadler, Olson, Kipnis, Maybin, Hamilton, Descalso, Souza, Sadler, Brach, Dermody...all of their 2020 salaries are gone. The Cubs' current 2021 luxury tax payroll, and it's probably not unsafe to say The Budget will be defined largely by the 2021 luxury tax, is anywhere from just under ~$40 million to almost $70 million dollars lower than it was in 2020 You understand everyone is saying that the money that’s fallen off, that you described, brings us to basically the ceiling of where we see payroll this year outside of the fringe adds, right? Most here aren’t operating under the assumption that is money that can be reused, it’s simply gotten us to where we probably end up for the year +/-. Where do you think payroll ends up this year? You think ~$200 is in play but short of the LT?

Yeah, I think best guess on payroll is that we're near PTR's cap already. Most teams this offseason who we have a decent grasp on their payroll situation are cutting 10-20% off of last year's pre-pandemic mark. The Cubs, if you count Lester's buyout as part of 2021 payroll, are at 20% right now ($215 vs $170). And that seems to track with what the local guys are saying. They're making it seem like, without a trade, there's enough room for a 2020 style offseason. A few Kipnis types at a few million a pop, and a bunch of Tepera/Winkler style split contracts. So I'm personally assuming there's ~$10 million to play with, plus any additional money saved in trade. Yeah I don’t expect us to run much more than a $170 mil payroll realistically. Optimistically, with the best information to guess off of that’s out there, I’m hoping we can at least get to $185. That allows for some decent adds without having to move money before adding and even moving off of just Willy gives a pretty healthy budget to add.

The videos of their swings side by side are amazing and hilarious. That swing by swing was amazing. I’m now convinced Dechambeau and the rest of these youths are just the layover until Baby Tiger comes as fucks the golf world up.

Lol, absurd

Yeah I’d give up some significant stuff for Arraez. Could be a spot for Willy.

Catcher Cespedes (minus the horses) I will accept no other outcomes.

All the smart pitching teams are in on him, so we definitely should be

A FA I forgot was out there is Didi, if we allegedly are in on JBJ and he’s a ~$10 AAV guy I like Didi a lot more as a fit if the MLBTR 3/39 projection is in the ballpark for him. Can let Nico start in AAA/make him more a utility guy for the year and then Didi can be a Javy/KB replacement after the year until the next wave of infielders are ready when he’s a FA.

Am I crazy if I see a more polished version of Jimmy Butler when he came into the league? I also don't think Lauri is a good fit with this team. He either needs to hit open 3s or be able to be a small ball 5, and it doesn't look like he can do either. Williams reminds me a bit of Tobias Harris, I mean that in a good way, more than Jimmy.

He’s an absolute beast

Wow, I didn’t think he’d get close to that much or even a guaranteed deal necessarily. Even though I like some of the underlying things and the Giants are a smart team. Interesting.

Liked him as a buy low/lab guy for a final rotation spot

Not fan of JBJ at all for this team and at the assumed price. Could use that money a lot better.

We should do some trades or signings this week already

Amaya looks horsefeathering massive

It’s been awhile since I did mock offseason and I’m bored. So here it goes. This is under the assumption I think we have to keep payroll in the range it is now ($160-170 mil) and can’t add without shedding guys. Also assuming roster sizes stay at 26 and there ends up being a DH in the end. Trade 1: Contreras and Kimbrel to the Phillies for Segura, Spencer Howard and maybe some other minor stuff going either way. Saves around $10 million Trade 2: Bryant to the Mets for Mcneil with some other pieces going either way (we may even need to add a decent prospect or two). Saves about $18-20 mil. Trade 3: Bote and Mills to the Rockies for Jon Gray and prospects. Adds somewhere around $4-7 mil. FA signings: Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar, Hanser Alberto, Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Stanek, Cheap backup C, Ian Kennedy, then another bat on a Kipnis/Souza type deal and a SP or two like Desclafani for cheap depth. All this should be able to be done for ~$35 mil on 1-2 year deals. Renfroe/Grossman/Pillar/Alberto aren’t necessarily full time starters but have positional versatility that they’ll play a lot and gets us the contact (not Renfroe but he’s a lefty masher we need) along with Mcneil and Segura the offensive composition is changed pretty drastically. Kennedy can be the closer, Stanek is a lab experiment. So the roster would look something like. Position Players (13): 1. Vic C/1B 2. Backup C 3. Rizzo 1B 4. Segura 2B/SS/3B 5. Javy SS 6. Mcneil 3B/OF 7. Alberto 2B/OF/IF 8. Grossman OF 9. Pillar OF 10. Happ OF 11. Heyward RF 12. Renfroe OF 13. Nico/Cheap Vet FA like Kipnis/Souza Rotation (5): 1. Yu 2. Kyle 3. Gray 4. Howard 5. Adbert Bullpen (8): 1. Kennedy 2. Wick 3. Underwood 4. Adam 5. Stanek 6. Rea 7-8: 2 lefties out of Wieck/Ryan/Osich/Steele/Carraway/etc.

Josh Bell cranks 40+ Dongs playing in Yankee stadium/AL East

Santana/Whit/Jorge/Dozier/etc could be a kinda fun offense

I liked the Eaton fit for us but $7 mil seems steep in this market and also where his age/performance is at. I wouldn’t be surprised if we were able to add 2 of Alberto, Hernandez, Pillar, Grossman or Profar for not much more than $7 mil combined as the offseason goes on. Adding two of those guys and keeping KB gives us quite a bit of roster/positional versatility and shores up some of the contact issues.

Christian Hernandez probably should be on any prospect list for us that’s talking upside, imo.

Yeah he’s a type of prospect who should be a secondary or third piece of any deal for either Yu or Kyle (depending on the main piece). Same would go for KB as a 2nd/3rd piece.

There's a ton of young talent. That's one reason why I don't think Tiger is breaking Jack's major record. I'm a golf nut and I watch a ton of it. I like all of these young studs. Unfortunately I don't see any of them really being a superstar that brings extra eyeballs to pro golf. Agree on the Tiger and Jack thing. There’s just too much talent that even 95% Tiger with where he’s at career wise in most majors may not be enough to win with the influx of talent. I also don’t see any superstar, mostly because the training/technology/constant influx of a large talent pool keeps guys from going on any sort of Tiger type run again. There’s still guys like Thomas who will be around for another 20 years and will have a HOF resume but what we’ll see more of are runs like Koepka/Spieth/DJ have gone on over the last 3-7 years where they look invincible for 18-30 month stretches then falter for whatever reasons. Which isn’t a bad thing, imo. I think how a superstar is defined needs to be redefined to a degree in the modern golf world. The overall talent level, and the age of it, is at an all time high. We are going to have less guys going on heaters for years and winning and more short bursts. The turnover may not be bad and the good guys will still stick around.

Hovland won in Mexico today, fwiw. The amount of young talent in the game right now is absolutely insane. The game couldn’t be in a better spot talent wise.