Cubswin11

Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc. I'm not sure the Rockies would make that trade. There's going to be a lot of competition for Gray alone without throwing Estevez into the deal. Gray only has 2 years of control left vs 3 for Willy. Gray seems to have fallen out of some favor there plus the trade saves them some money (something they’re trying to do apparently). Estevez is like 4th or 5th in the pecking order for their bullpen arms, he should be attainable. The Rockies desperately need some bats, they only had 5 players provide positive offensive WAR last year, Wes Pearson (a pitcher) was their 6th most valuable offensive WAR player. Yonder Alonso had the 6th highest wRC+ for them, 2 of their top 11 players by wRC+ were pitchers, we think we have depth problems but they’re on another level. With the money committed to Blackmon and Arenado they can’t really just bottom out and I’d assume they’ll keep trying to win, Contreras makes a lot of sense for them to add. Their catchers were 28th in MLB in WAR (-1.7), they combined to hit .239/.316/.349 with 9 Dongs and a 59 wRC+.

I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal. If you can pull off Gray and Estevez for Contreras and no other MLB/top prospect assets, you have a lot of flexibility to imprvoe without needing 17 trades. Grandal + Shogo, Castro + Castellanos, etc Yeah it really opens up a lot. You solidify the rotation (plus fill a spot for next year) and add a solid RP without it costing money. Then the money can be used in a variety of ways like you laid out. Grandal, Moustakas (move KB to RF), bring back Nick, Didi, maybe be able to take on a guy like Lowrie, could open up potentially being able to move Q to save some money to go do something bigger (basically Gray takes Qs spot and Mills/Chatwood/Rea/etc take the 5 spot), etc.

Padres and Braves step right up, please....Who else do I not hate for Contreras...the Indians if Theo can get Lindor *and* Kluber...uuuum...the Mets...His contract situation might even make the Rays do something they normally wouldn't do...Rockies have a great park for him and some players...the Angels could give up Adell for a top win now player with a great contract situation... I think my ideal Willy outcome this offseason is him (throw in a Short, Giambrone, Underwood, Abbott, etc type or two if needed) for Jon Gray and Carlos Estevez then sign Grandal.

Why is this a good outcome? He's generally considered a top 50 prospect in baseball right now and a positive outcome would be using him to save a few million off the back of the roster....Yippee skippee Trent Giambrone, Vimael Machin, maybe even Zack Short can probably do the same thing and it's a way less sinister act by the org I mean I said it’s a worst case outcome, there’s still value in producing cheap bench/role, second division starter type players internally vs having to pay millions for them. And yeah as a top 50 prospect you hope for more but even for top 50 prospects turning in to a useful bench/role player is a positive outcome, a lot of those guys won’t even make it as any type of MLB player in the next 2-5 years. And again, especially for this year and next, Hoerner brings something in his contact ability that the team (as currently constructed) sucks at. I see value in that, even if he’s more of a platoon/pinch hitter/couple days a week starter. I also have no idea what the horsefeathers your sinister comment means.

Elite contact ability (which is an area we lack), good athleticism/speed, and ability to play multiple positions, MIF and probably the OF. I don’t think he’s ever gonna be a star (he’s probably a 2-3 win player on average with maybe a peak year in the 4s) but I think he can be a solid player who can move around and diversify the offense a bit. At worst he’s likely a cheap bench/role player for a few years and we don’t need to pay the Descalso’s or Kemp’s of the world a few million to fill that role.

These numbers make you optimistic about trading for a 31 YO 2B to become the starting CF of the Cubs? I hate the Cubs too but they should at least win at baseball while I hate them I’m not acting like he’d be an elite fielder out there but I think he’d be plenty adequate.

Merrifield's played 47 ML games in CF, 134 as a pro, and will be 31 next year ~370 innings there at +3 DRS, UZR liked him in 2018 but not 2019. He hasn’t rated out well in RF (-7) but rates out well in LF (+7). I don’t think he’d be a liability out there, especially if we shift more and then just sign a glove first CF like Billy Hamilton for late innings. He also could push Nico to CF if you don’t want Whit out there.

He could play CF. He’s the exact type of bat this offense needs, him and Nico on the roster would really help with the contact issues and help supplement things. I’d consider using Amaya in a trade for him, honestly. Happ or Bote, Amaya and some other stuff like Short, Abbott, etc I think I’d do.

I’d lean that way too. Something like Happ + any 2-3 not Davis, Amaya or Marquez prospects I’d probably do though. Or include Bote too.

He makes a lot of sense for us, imo. Guessing he’d take Nico plus other stuff.

That's a fair point, although I think it's also worth considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either. Yeah I mean, there's two options/conversations here: 1. You essentially throw out last year, take his MLB PAs from 2017 and 2018, slap it on 600 PAs, and he's a roughly 2-2.5 win player in center field. Not terrible, but it means you're looking at an outfield that's going to really struggle to top like, 10 WAR total if you lock in Schwarber and Heyward next to him. Only 5 teams put up more than 12 WAR with their OF last year and only 6 over 11. Is that really that bad or burdening to expect ~10 WAR? Sure we’d like more but with the IF we have that probably projects in the 18 range (5-6 KB, 3-4 Javy, 2-3 Nico/Bote 2B, 3-4 Rizzo 1B, 3-4 C Willy/Vic) I think we could be competitive with a ~10 WAR OF.

Ross means business, kicking out former teammates from his staff. Clearly asserting dominance early. Ross on day one of Spring Training. http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Welcome-To-Hotel-Hell-Courtesy-Of-Dwight-Schrute.gif

Strong disagree. Almora and the depth and deployment of it last year was a huge reason things failed. You got -2 WAR out of Almora, Descalso, Zagunis and Cargo in ~600 PAs. Getting even .5-1.5 WAR production out each player in those 4 spots of that depth could’ve been the difference. OK, but we were talking about someone weirdly acting like one dude in CF not sucking is apparently the difference between the Cubs being competitive, and not a collection of turds. Sure, but it could make a big difference. Going from Almora’s -.7 WAR to even just someone who can give 1.5-2 WAR is a pretty substantial improvement and would make a large difference, whether this is Happ or not finding that “semi solid option” for CF is pretty important and a difference. Especially if we’re assuming the roster is not all that flexible, picking up those extra 2-3 wins on the margins for 2-3 bench/role spots could be the difference between low-mid 80 wins again and missing the playoffs and high 80 to low 90 wins and making them.

Happ is only 25, he’s played 3 seasons in MLB and been a 1.5 WAR or better player in every season, he has a career 112 wRC+ and .816 OPS, he’s rated at +3, -7, +1 in CF in his three years by DRS and his UZR numbers were good in 2 of 3 years too so he’s probably playable out there (especially if we embrace shifting more), he cut down his K rate by 10% in 2019 vs 2018 (granted it was ~160 PAs) when we knew he was Iowa to work on and change things to fix the K problems. I don’t know how you can’t look at him as a “semi-solid option” for CF, especially if he’s not run out there every day and is in some sort of rotation with Heyward, Nico, TBD FA/Trade option (even if it’s a Pillar type) to protect him from bad matchups/splits. Now I’d get why you’d want to move away from him given his profile is similar to a lot of the team and maybe you want to diversify the offense with more contact/less Ks/etc. but he’s a “solid option” for CF in 2020 if he’s around.

If he's a negative fWAR guy like our everyday CF last season, it would definitely hurt the team. Well, yeah, obviously. But that guy is basically saying the Cubs can't be serious contenders, like the season hangs on Happ. Like, Almora was hideous, but he's not THE reason why the Cubs blew it. Not even close. Strong disagree. Almora and the depth and deployment of it last year was a huge reason things failed. You got -2 WAR out of Almora, Descalso, Zagunis and Cargo in ~600 PAs. Getting even .5-1.5 WAR production out each player in those 4 spots of that depth could’ve been the difference.

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with. So the thinking is 8-9 million + a promising but unproven pen arm is worth the downgrade in SP certainty. Not sure I'd go that route in particular, but I get it. Yeah, it obviously isn’t my preferred route. Keep the more certain and probably better SP in 2020 to try and win and fill the holes with money/other trades. But if we can’t spend/aren’t really gonna try in 2020/have to maneuver with money to add it’s a move I could get behind and understand that helps us this year and in the future.

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with.

An OF of Eloy and him, lol

Pivetta and Seranthony seem to fit the mold, let’s do it. I like this. Maybe the Phillies could be confused by a large number of meh? Something like Q + Maples + Mekkes + whatever? Nah, didn't think so. I’d assume that’s in the ballpark (I was thinking using Q too). Something like Q and some combo of Almora, Mekkes/Maples/Norwood/Underwood types, and a Zack Short type seems more than fair, even if we threw in $1-4 million. We still save money and get two intriguing, controlled and younger pitchers.

only if they throw in a soon to be great set-up man that currently sucks. Pivetta and Seranthony seem to fit the mold, let’s do it.

These were quotes from the article when the Padres hired Green. That seems to check a lot of boxes on things they want to move towards. Better preparation, more using and understanding of metrics, shifting, etc.

The report was he had a low to mid teens offer from his team or a different one over there, right? I’d agree though, doubt he jumps to MLB for a few million. I’m guessing it would take $20+ mil to get him here, which I still wouldn’t be entirely against depending on how much money we actually have to spend and other moves.

It doesn't really let up either. They lose Molina and Brett Cecil next year, but they also have a half dozen guys enter arb, including Flaherty who will not be cheap. Wong, Mikolas and Goldschmidt also combine to make $22 or so million more in 2020 vs 2019. That plus whatever they do to fill the rotation and re-sign/replace Ozuna probably takes up all their money.

I like Green the most of these names but guessing Farrell has the inside track with his connections to Theo and Jed.