Cubswin11

Yeah that makes sense to me. Shogo seems like part of the plan no matter what. I have some hope if he’s brought in it’s an indicator they keep KB. Would be weird to trade your superstar then bring in a 32 year old OF’er, imo. As many have laid out, adding Shogo in an offseason Willy and other lesser parts are moved can still give us a plenty competitive team though.

We've heard his name attached to us enough and since we don't seem attached to anyone else and everything else sucks, let's give him his own thread and hopefully get some positive news.

What certainty is there with Segura beyond his existence? He's put up anywhere from .616 OPS to a .867 OPS over the past 5 years and has seen it decline steadily over the past 3 including a big drop in OBP...Also why would the Cubs take on a bad contract on a 30+ year old specifically to not get the guy in his 20s under a probably very team friendly contract when it's all said and done? Like bad but realistic reason #3 to even take on Segura is the salary cap here, but then why would they want Segura in the first place if the salary cap is an issue, Bryant was a huge part of that issue, and the Phillies were offering Kingery instead of Segura.. I think it's reasonable to expect Segura to be a 2+ win player (at least on average) over his final remaining 4 years, he's not a superstar but he's a useful player that can play a few positions. My only suggestion/guess was I could see how Segura being in a deal with them over Kingery. I'd bet they don't include Bohm and Howard if Kingery is in the deal, they love him and he's a real asset coming back and I'd personally rather have both Bohm and Howard over him in any deal we speculate about with the Phillies. Bohm and Howard is really what we're trading for here. Adding in Segura instead of Kingery could help get us an extra prospect or something, plus they could always throw in more money to cover some of his deal and it still saves us money anyways (it nets off $4-5 this year and $8+ mil next year when just compared to KB). It could open the door to including Q or especially Chatwood if we are under this mandate to cut salary this year, I don't think you can dump Chatwood in a deal that Kingery is in maybe you can with Q since he actually is a good pitcher. There's enough money coming off the next 2 years Segura's money shouldn't affect much in regards to the LT. It's really just an issue this year. And again these are all things I could see happening with what we think we know. I don't really give a horsefeathers to talk about this any more. It's not something I care about to see happen or not want to see happen enough that it's worth much more discussion. Just was a passing comment on how I could see a Phillies-KB deal happen if one comes to pass.

I assume the basis for this being a thing that could happen is that it's terrible for the Cubs? The whole hub bub with keeping Bryant is that he will soon be gasping for air to fill his aged lungs at 30 while still trying to plunder the org of cap space, but Jean Segura gets that privilege in a realistic reality? Segura is already cheaper than Bryant and locked in for 4 years at a reasonable/manageable number ($13-14 mil I think) and has some skills and position versatility that should age okay and he’s only 29. We still have to put major leaguers on the field and it would be nice to get some certainty at the ML level in a KB trade if we don’t go full blow up. Plus taking on Segura could help us move Q or hopefully Chatwood’s money and then do some other stuff that helps build out this and next year and get under the tax this year (if that’s something we have to do, not something I want to do or am advocating for but it’s the rumor out there so I think it’s worth thinking with that hat on for now when discussing possible moves).

Is this a Ricketts account? Don't get me wrong - this franchise probably deserves to go down trading Bryant during his prime in a salary dump*, but is this a Ricketts account? *I know the Cubs get dollar store Bryant in Bohm and a couple pitchers, but still mostly a salary dump No, it’s just an account based in reality and talking about things that could happen (not things I necessarily want to have happen) based off info we have and not your fairy tale land. Of course I’d just prefer and want the Cubs to sign Rendon (move KB to RF) and trade any prospects of value for Lindor and Gray to really push the chips the next two years and call it an offseason. But that ain’t happening.

I probably would do that, I’d even flip out Kingery for Segura (have them pay some of Segura down or include Q or Chatwood going back).

My goodness this is a freaking frustrating conversation. No kidding that was the design. The topic of conversation was about an extension for Rizzo, and ways to get one that doesn't leave you shelling out big for an old done dude. My opinion is the easiest way to extend him "cheaply" is by throwing a little extra money his way now. Show him some love for more than living up to his contract and providing you a ton of profit. And then maybe he'd sign something feasible. If you make him play out this deal then he's got more incentive to try and get the best deal he can get next time around. If you don't want to keep him at all, fine, let him walk. Personally, I'd trade him. I’m firmly on the “trade Rizzo” bandwagon, both because i think its best for us long-term and I think its what this FO will eventually decide on. But I get laughed out of every place I bring it up at. His contract makes him ultra-valuable, and with two years of control left, this is where his value will most likely peak. First base is the easiest position to fill, and we have in house options available in Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras, and Vic....not that I’m endorsing moving any of those players to 1st base, just that doing so is a legitimate option. In a hypothetical world where we trade Rizzo for a SP to slot in between Yu and Kyle, move Schwarber to 1st and sign Castellanos using Rizzo’s money, I think we’re much better off than if we had kept Rizzo. Thats assuming you think Schwarber can move to 1st. Maybe you don’t think that, thats OK, theres still like 50 different options. The only thing I havent figured out is who is likely to interested in Rizzo, and what SP we could realistically get in a trade for him You’re not getting a pitcher who’s top ~25 in MLB for him (slotting between Yu and Kyle I take as what that means, like we aren’t getting Berrios or Nola for him) and going from Rizzo to Castellanos is a significant downgrade on offense and defense. Castellanos does nothing better than Rizzo offensively and you’re adding a horrible defender to the OF and worse defense to 1B most likely. Rizzo isn’t all that valuable in a trade and probably holds more value to us to just keep, imo. A team would likely think they could or would rather try cobble together Rizzo’s WAR at 1B by just signing like Thames or Moreland and some RHH guy who handles lefties for less than $10 mil. Than give up anything of much value, IMO.

Let’s get nuts Angels get: KB, Q and Gray Rockies get: Adell, Amaya, another Angel prospect or two, Bote, Underwood, Chatwood Cubs get: Arenado, Estevez, Canning and Rockies pay ~$3 mil a year of the Arenado deal. Saves us money, actually and we get a pitching prospect and replace KBs production.

There was that report last year that part of the reason we sat out Bryce/Manny was because we loved Arenado (who was suppose to be a FA this year) and he was our real target over the two years of the big time FA. Probably a PR spin to explain not spending last year. It would take a ton of moving parts and is more fantasy message board talk but would be fun to trade for him after a KB deal if were gonna do the KB thing.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? What kind of deal would you think Rizzo would get this offseason if Cubs declined the option and made him a FA? If he’s a FA this offseason probably like 4-5 years and between $70-85 million guaranteed.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? He more recently has a season at sub 3 WAR than he does a season at 5+. I think that $16.5 range for AAV on an extension+guaranteeing option year is pretty fair/realistic. yeah i'd say he's been pretty damn grossly underpaid (as much as you can say that given the fact that it's already generational wealth and blah blah) He’s been grossly underpaid no doubt, but the current $16.5 and next years option seem about right for where he’s at now. Idk he’s not a $22-25+ aav guy on the next deal.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? He more recently has a season at sub 3 WAR than he does a season at 5+. I think that $16.5 range for AAV on an extension+guaranteeing option year is pretty fair/realistic.

Yeah with 2 years left there isn’t crazy urgency, especially during the winter meetings and coming weeks. I’d be fine adding 3 years past the option year next year at $14-17 aav. Then a team option or two with a small buyout. He should be a Cub for life.

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That’s so much money for a pitcher, wow

Why? He’s only controlled for 2 more years and never cracked 1 WAR. He’s a bad defender, doesn’t have a ton of power or walk or hit for average.

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If they could move Heyward and even 80-90% of his money for Strumpf and 2 of those guys I think it would already be done.

I think there are implications for Chatwood as well. I'd rather have Gausman than Chatwood, but it's not a total slam dunk. Especially since we've seen teams pay out the nose for spin and velocity with guys like Pomeranz, I wonder if this is a sign that Chatwood is not *that* far underwater contractually. I think we’d still have to give up a Tyson Miller, Abbott, Short type at the least in a deal if we’re moving him and not throwing in more that $1-2 mil, at minimum. Maybe a Roederer or Strumpf on the high side (I’d pass at that). The Angels just had to give up the 15 overall pick last year to move Cozart, who’s probably worse/more broken than Chatwood. But yeah I think Chatwood is at least moveable for not a crazy prospect if we maybe eat 1/3-1/2 the deal, all of it could have some pain.

That clears 3B/money for them.....

$9 mil guaranteed for Gausman, you have to think Q is relatively easily moveable if we have to cut payroll and we could get at least a pen arm or like a fringe top 100 prospect.

They’ll just cut back on FA for the White Sox for a few years to make up for it.

Mystery Team!

The ask is/was Mackenzie Gore, apparently I'd lol no at that too if I were the padres, and I hate pitching prospects more than anyone. I’m glad they’re aiming high. It’s also kinda peak prospect hugging that a 21 year pitcher who’s had TJ, hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a year (only 20 above A ball), and ran ERA/FIP in the 4s in AA is a laughable over ask for a top 2-3 catcher in baseball who’s controlled for 3 years in his sub age 30 seasons and won’t cost more than $25 million over the 3 years. If Gore is too much give me Margot and Lamet. Or else just don’t trade him.

The ask is/was Mackenzie Gore, apparently