CubsWin

Easy grounder to Villanueva. He did it. A full 9 inning no-hitter for Jokisch.

Almost. First pitch in the 9th. Line drive to third, leaping catch by Villanueva. Second batter, second pitch. Liner up the middle, diving catch by Baez. Waiting on the third batter. 8 2/3 now...

The Cubs clearly need an elite arm and if the "right one" is there, they'll probably take him. But they've had a couple shots now and have passed on a really good pitcher. If they do the same next summer, I'm pulling for Alex Jackson. Love his story, his talent and his ability to play catcher. As of now, it's going to take a top 10, maybe top 5 pick to get him...

More like 6 consecutive games because I believe at least 2 of those days were double headers. It was five games cancelled, a single game and two doubleheaders, but both of those doubleheaders were the rained out games from the night before so it was really just three games that didn't get played. Still, ouch. Updated forecast shows 0% chance of rain tonight until 9pm in Daytona. That's right, 0%

And just to twist the knife, forecasts say no rain at game time tonight in Daytona, FL. Of course, the D-Cubs have the night off. Three consecutive games have been cancelled due to rain prior to tonight's scheduled day off.

daytona has every day off. It better rain in Daytona today.

Hey, they finally gave him a day off!

What we as fans really need are scouting reports on these guys, but, short of that, if you're looking to find something Alcantara-esque, then, for my money, youth has to be a main factor. For hitters, 17 seems to be the magic number. Alcantara was 17 and skipped a level after coming to the states. Candelario has followed the same profile. Both performed admirably at that age in the DSL showing a strong K:BB ratio and ability to make contact with some power. The same holds true for pitchers. If you have the stuff and performed well as a 17 year old in the DSL or VSL and you get called up to the states as an 18 year old, then you can be considered a decent prospect. Erick Leal is the latest example of this trajectory. The statistical profile seems to be less than a hit per inning, more than a K per inning and a great K/BB ratio. A lot of teams are signing slightly older players now so that they don't have to project them so much so I think this age thing, especially for pitchers, is becoming less of a hard and fast rule. But it is still a very good indicator of whether or not a player is a decent prospect. That said, 18 year old Adbert Alzolay and 18 year old Jose Paulino are the two players I'm most excited about and even then, they likely wouldn't crack the Cubs top 30. Others include 19 year old Greyfer Eregua, and 17 year olds Jesus Castillo and Moises Ramirez. Very few of the hitters excite me. The only one that currently may have a chance is 19 year old Roney Alcala but he doesn't really fit the above profile. Other than that, Roberto Caro, Bryant Flete, and bonus babies Frandy Delarosa and Luis Acosta were all in EXST this year but were sent back down.

Isn't it more of a silver linings situation than a perverse and distasteful endeavor? I think everybody wants the Cubs to win every game, but we know that's not going to happen and they are going to lose more than they win, so the only upshot to that is how it affects what they can acquire in the future. It's harmless nonsense.

Javier Baez played a total of 76 games in High-A this season. Cut those games in half and the difference is as stark as Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. In his first 37 games in High-A, he struckout 46 times and walked 5 times. That's basically a 9:1 ratio. We were all rightfully concerned. But it was mid-May, and he was a supposedly headstrong yet highly-talented 20-year-old, so patience was in order (for him and his fans). In the next 39 games before his promotion, he K'd 32 times and walked 16. A 2:1 ratio. In his final 21 games, he had 18 K to 12 BB, a 1.5:1 ratio. Clearly, he had shown improvement. In his first 17 games in AA, he struckout 25 times and walked only 3 for an 8:1 ratio. Patterns repeat, right? So what has he done since then? 14 K, 7 BB in his last 10. He's hitting .268/.375/.537 in that span. He's definitely shown the ability to learn, adjust and be coachable. So far, he's played 27 games in AA and has the exact same amount left in the regular season. I can't wait to see who shows up for the next 27. Jekyll or Hyde?

It'll be interesting to see what happens. Man, I never thought I would say that when the Cubs are this far out of it...

You do? Weird. See, I think it's fun, when the Cubs are out of the playoff race, to track the other teams around them in the overall standings so as to provide a context for the Cubs wins and losses. Of course, that's a little bit more nuanced than what you boiled it down to. I'll put the straw man back up now...

I know! I was looking at the forecasts, and all of them had the mornings rain free! Unfortunately, the downpours lately have been so heavy that the fields have been unplayable even the next day. Crazy...

Arismendy Alcantara has been a bit streaky this season so his line over his last 10 games (.190/.292/.238) doesn't really raise any red flags for me. But he has played 19 games in 19 days if you include the Southern League All-Star game. Prior to that, he played 5 games in 3 days, then traveled to New York on July 13th, played in the Futures Game, traveled back on the 15th and had one day off before playing in the All-Star on the 17th. That's 25 games in 26 days. In the south. In July and August. He's already played a dozen more games than he has in any previous season. The dude's 5'10", 160 lbs. Anybody think he might just be a tad tired? Yowza...

The forecast for 5pm in Daytona is a balmy 84 degrees, 77% humidity and a 30% chance of rain. If they get the first game in, the 8pm forecast calls for a 40% chance of precip. Tuesday's basically the same. C.J., we hardly knew ya...

Fecal League Standings - 08/04/13 1. HOU...36-74 .327 -- 2. CWS...40-69 .367 4.5 3. MIA....43-67 .391 7.0 4. MIL....47-64 .423 10.5 5. CHC...49-62 .441 12.5 6. MIN...48-60 .444 13.0 7. SFG...49-61 .445 13.0 8. PHI...50-61 .450 13.5 9. NYM...49-60 .450 13.5 10. TOR..51-60 .459 14.5 11. COL...52-61 .460 14.5 12. LAA...51-59 .464 15.0 13. SDP...52-60 .464 15.0 14. SEA...52-59 .468 15.5

That would be a nice side benefit, but not one I'm particularly willing to start a thread to track and breathlessly hope for. I guess that's why you didn't start the thread. I think this is fun and folly. This is about hoping the other teams in the bottom half of the league win games even more than it is hoping that the Cubs lose. And if the Cubs do lose, I'm always hoping that their key players develop. They certainly are not mutually exclusive. If you can make a case for that, I'd sure like to see it. That said, on with the show...

Okay, so don't root for it. No one's asking you to, that's for sure. For me, I'll take the advantages of the higher draft pick and fun of tracking the rest of the season with something to look forward to. You think the Cubs finishing with a few losses more than the next team will somehow stunt the growth of key players or dampen the spirits of the team going into next season, be my guest. I choose to think that having a higher pick will help the scouts this front office employs get a better player. Maybe the draft over the last 20 years has been more of a crapshoot than it is today. Maybe, with the new CBA, the draft has become more important than ever. Maybe teams have been forced to get smarter because of it. Maybe not. I guess the next 5 years will tell...

I guess I feel like losing the rest of the way does more for our long term success than winning. That's probably the most simple way to put it. That is also not right. The difference in a couple spots in the draft order pales compared to the importance of the success of the players who are currently on the MLB roster. You're wrong too. The difference isn't between a couple of spots in the draft order. There are so many teams so close together that the difference is between 10 spots in the draft order. And the Cubs can lose enough games (and the other teams win enough games) without compromising the individual success of any one player on the roster. I thought that was obvious... Replace "couple" with 5, 10, 20 spots in the draft order, the point is the same. There are lots of current Cubs who are important to next year's roster(and the years beyond), the difference in their draft position pales in importance to how they collectively perform. Why?

I guess I feel like losing the rest of the way does more for our long term success than winning. That's probably the most simple way to put it. That is also not right. The difference in a couple spots in the draft order pales compared to the importance of the success of the players who are currently on the MLB roster. You're wrong too. The difference isn't between a couple of spots in the draft order. There are so many teams so close together that the difference is between 10 spots in the draft order. And the Cubs can lose enough games (and the other teams win enough games) without compromising the individual success of any one player on the roster. I thought that was obvious...

No one said it would take an implosion of the big league team to get as good of a draft pick as possible. They're not mutually exclusive.

I hope the Cubs draft last.

The Cubs are 5.5 games back of Miami in 3rd. If the Marlins keep winning (3 in a row, 6 in their last 10), the Cubs have a shot at that pick, but #1 and #2 seem out of reach. They could finish anywhere from 3rd to 14th. That's a big variance. There are 53 games left for the Cubs, Marlins and Brewers. It's a little early for magic numbers but what the heck. The number of Cubs losses and Marlins wins needed for the Cubs to pick 3rd is 59. For the 4th pick, it's 56. (The Cubs have the tie-breaker on every team except Houston.) Magic numbers work a little differently if you're not in 1st place, of course...

Fecal League Standings - 08/02/13 1. HOU...36-72 .333 -- 2. CWS...40-67 .374 4.5 3. MIA....43-65 .398 7.0 4. MIL....46-63 .422 9.5 5. MIN...46-60 .434 11.0 6. CHC...49-60 .450 12.5 7. SFG...49-59 .454 13.0 8. NYM...49-58 .458 13.5 9. SEA...50-59 .459 13.5 10. PHI...50-59 .459 13.5 11. TOR..50-59 .459 13.5 12. LAA...50-58 .463 14.0 13. SDP...51-59 .464 14.0 14. COL...52-59 .468 14.5 8 teams are within 2 games of the Cubs. Their ranking will vary greatly throughout the next several weeks. This should be an interesting ride.

Now that the trade deadline is over, it is time to start looking towards the 2014 draft. Going into August, the Cubs had the 9th worst record in baseball. Currently, there are 15 teams under .500, and all 15 have a shot at a protected top 10 draft slot. However, the Nationals don't scare me too much, so I'm going to narrow the field to 14. For much of the season, Houston and Miami have had the #1 and #2 spots sewn up, but the White Sox have come charging into the picture losing 6 in a row to finish July strong. After the top 3, it's pretty much anybody's ballgame. It is going to be an interesting and volatile race for a top 5 draft pick in 2014. Case in point, the Cubs entered August in 9th place, but after just two days are currently sitting 6th. Unfortunately, that's a pretty meaningless ranking as 8 teams have 58 or 59 losses and one team is tied with the Cubs at 60. August 2nd was a particularly good day for the Cubs. It started by them losing 6-2 to the Dodgers for their 60th loss. There were 12 games on the Fecal League schedule last night. In the list below, the Cubs benefit if the first team listed wins. Out of 12 games, we went 8-4, including the Cubs loss, 9-4. Considering that most of these games are under .500 teams against over .500 teams, to go 9-4 is a very good day. PHI vs. ATL - Phillies lost. 50-59 COL vs. PIT - Rockies won. 52-59 SEA vs. BAL - Mariners lost. 50-59 CWS vs. DET - White Sox lost. 40-67 MIA vs. CLE - Marlins won. 43-65 NYM vs. KC - Mets won. 49-58 SFG vs. TB - Giants won. 49-58 MIN vs. HOU - Twins won. 46-60 MIL vs. WSH - Brewers lost. 46-63 SDP vs. NYY - Padres won. 51-59 The last game was between the Blue Jays and the Angels. They each had 58 losses going into the game, but the Jays and one more win than the Angels, so I guess if there was an outcome that benefited the Cubs more it would be if the Angels won. LAA vs. TOR - Angels won. 50-58. The Blue Jays are 50-59.