CubsWin

The stadium, buildings and surrounding city park cost $99 million to build. Mesa put up $84 million. That leaves $15 million that I assume the Cubs paid for, though the linked article didn't specify. The Cubs would certainly be responsible for the hardware (training/rehab equipment, locker room facilites, batting cages, video rooms, etc.) It's still a sizeable investment. So maybe $15-20 million that could have been spent on payroll. Should it have been? I don't think so. Logic and stats tell me it was much better to invest that money in the Cubs future than to have spent it on on-field personnel this year or last.

Minor league players with a realistic chance (some better than others) of contributing to the big league club in 2014: Javier Baez Arismendy Alcantara Arodys Vizcaino Mike Olt Kyle Hendricks Neil Ramirez Armando Rivero There are also players recently brought up who have youth and upside to contribute in greater ways next year: Junior Lake Jake Arrieta Justin Grimm Junior Lake Zach Rosscup Alberto Cabrera Hector Rondon That's 14 guys. Let's say 8 or 9 fail to contribute in any meaningful way. That's still an influx of 5 or 6 players that weren't on the 2013 mid-season roster who would cost very little. That should allow the Cubs to make a very good offer for someone like Tanaka.

We'll see. That investment portfolio (analogies!) is pretty mixed right now. As far as the young players acquired, I agree. By definition, any player who hasn't succeeded in the majors yet is a "we'll see" proposition. But some of the things in that "investment portfolio" are knowable quantities. The new Dominican Academy, the new state-of-the-art spring training facility, the new closed circuit video system installed in all of their minor league ballparks all provide immediate benefits and value. I don't know if you've seen the new spring training complex, but it looks awesome. Not only will it provide the latest and best facilities to the players, but it should prove an improved revenue stream for the ballclub as well. When it comes to players, everybody's an if. But some ifs are better than others. And not only have the Cubs acquired quality ifs, they also acquired them in good quantity. League-wide prospect rankings are just a way of describing how good of an "if" a player is relative to the other prospects out there. Both quantity and quality improve a team's chances of having enough of the "ifs" payoff. So I'm confident that we will see a payoff to the Cubs investment in talent as well as infrastructure. As far as who, how many and when, I have no idea. But the length of the prospect list is tantalizing. But the depth of this system is remarkable. And finally, enough of these "we'll see" players are close enough that we should be getting some answers this year.

Turning back to 2014 for a moment... Two big ifs. If the Cubs are able to sign Tanaka and if he performs as many expect he will, that would go a long way towards making us all forget about the past two years.

I think it's fair to say that the Cubs spent their resources on infrastructure/minor league talent more so than the major league club the last two years. But I wouldn't necessarily say that was unwise. The team had some pretty bad contracts on it's payroll when the new regime took over and several holes to fill. With the new philosophy of/firm commitment to building with youth from within and not paying for past results, plus the changes in the new CBA causing teams to lock-up younger talent for longer terms thus making free agency a less viable way to add talent, spending the team's resources on things other than the major league club makes a lot of sense. But whether they "gave up" on the past two seasons at the major league level or not, spending their money elsewhere seems sound logically. Opening the Dominican Academy, completing the new spring training facility, spending on IFA talent, signing value free agents and flipping them for prospects, turning Ramirez and Pena into draft picks, trading Dempster, Garza, Soriano etc., all took resources away from the big league club and reassigned them elsewhere. The cost may have been two losing seasons. But the gains will be worth it in the long run.

Isn't Jackson the guy Mcleod is enamored with? Yes.

That'll definitely change. This time last year, the top three prospects were Appel, Stanek and Manaea. Bryant was a top 10 talent and Gray was a top 3 round talent. Two years ago at this time, Giolito, Appel and Buxton were the top 3 prospects; Correa and Zimmer were not on anyone's radar. This stuff changes a lot, especially given how fickle pitching prospects and 17-year olds are. So we agree.

Obviously a lot can/will change between now and next June, but, as it stands right now, the tier one prospects seem to be Rodon, Hoffman, Turner and Kolek. Tier two starts with Alex Jackson simply due to the question of whether he can stick at catcher. If that holds true and there are 4 elite players in next year's draft, then the next few games could hold some drama.

With 5 games left for the Cubs, we're getting down to the nitty-gritty. Here's how it stands now... Astros............1st pick clinched Marlins...........Magic Number to clinch the 2nd pick - 1 White Sox.......+2.5 Cubs...............-- Twins.............1.5 Mariners.........3.0 The worst the Cubs could finish is 6th. The best is 3rd. Any combination of White Sox losses and Cubs wins equaling 4 will eliminate the Cubs from the 3rd pick. Any combination of Cubs losses and Twins wins equaling 4 will eliminate the Twins from the 4th pick. Any combination of Cubs losses and Mariners wins equaling 2 will eliminate the Mariners from the 4th pick, guaranteeing the Cubs of picking no later than 5th. The Cubs host the Pirates for two more games, have an off day Thursday in which both the White Sox and Twins will be playing, and finish the season playing three in St. Louis. The White Sox have a 2-game road trip into Cleveland and finish at home with a 4-game set against the Royals. The Twins have 6 games remaining, all at home. Two more against the Tigers and then four against the Indians. The Mariners will face the Royals twice more in SafeCo, have Thursday off, then finish with three games against the A's also at home.

Don't do it, N&G!

This was a good day as far as the Cubs chances of winding up with the 4th pick next year. The Cubs lost while both the Brewers and Twins got unlikely wins teams playing to get into the playoffs. The 1st three held steady. Astros, Marlins, White Sox... Cubs........-- Twins......1.5 Brewers...2.5 Mariners..3.0 Mets........4.0 Rockies....4.5 Blue Jays..5.0 When you add in the tiebreaker (assuming everyone ends up playing 162 games), the Cubs have a 2.5 game lead over the Twins and are 3.5 ahead of the Brewers with 13 games left to play. In what could be a decisive series, the Cubs are next in Milwaukee for a 4 game series. They then face the Braves and Pirates at home and finish on the road against the Cardinals. After the Cubs, the Brewers face the Cardinals, Braves and finish the year with a 4 game road stand against the Mets. The Twins travel to Chicago for a 3 game set against the White Sox, then to Oakland for 4 games. They finish at home hosting the Tigers and the Indians. It's still way too early to feel comfortable about getting the 4th pick, but the magic number to wind up there now stands at 12 (because the Twins have 14 left to play). For the 5th pick, it's 11.

It certainly needs work. However, it is young and talented enough to improve, mostly from Castro, Rizzo and Shark. And, help appears to be on the way from within the Cubs system. The emergence of Castillo as a top defensive and offensive catcher helps a lot, especially considering the dearth of talent the Cubs have in the system behind him. The Cubs best hope of adding a player to their young core in 2014 might be signing Tanaka. The list of question marks currently on the roster is long which is good, but they're still just question marks. One or more of Arrieta, Lake, Vizcaino, Grimm, Cabrera could break out this season, but you certainly can't count on it. It's rare under this CBA that a team will have the chance to sign a talented pitcher before he enters his prime. It is rarer still that they won't have to give up a draft pick while doing so. Assuming the Cubs scouts like him, they would take a big step forward in their rebuild by not letting this one slip away.

Now that Welington Castillo has established himself as one of the better defensive and offensive catchers in the majors, the core players list just got one louder. Unfortunately, this list is nowhere near going to 11 quite yet. Right now it stands at 5. Castillo, Rizzo, Castro, Samardzija, Wood. Who is on your core players list?

Wow. Junior Lake just had a Joey Votto-like at bat. He fouled off like 8 or 9 pitches and eventually drew the walk. #CubsWay?

It's [expletive] depressing. If they're this bad next season, that's when I start to lose faith in Theo & Co.

I predicting, including the post season and AFL, he makes a run at 50. If you include his big league camp spring training (including the game against Japan), he's already at 43...

I wouldn't go quite that far. The Cubs have 29 games left to play and lead the Twins for the 4th pick by a game and a half in the standings and 2 1/2 with the tie-breaker. They lead the Brewers by 3 1/2 games and will face them 7 times before the season ends. Nothing's a lock quite yet, but their chances have definitely improved since the all-star break that they will have a top 5 pick.

The Cubs are now a half game behind the White Sox for the 3rd draft position. The closest team to the Cubs for the 4th pick is the Brewers, who are 2 games back in the standings, but effectively 3 when you include the tie-breaker. From there it's: 3.5 - Twins 3.5 - Blue Jays 4.0 - Giants 4.5 - Angels 5.0 - Padres 5.0 - Mets 5.0 - Phillies 5.5 - Mariners 6.0 - Rockies

That would make 3 players below AA for the Cubs. If all 3 actually do go, I wonder if the Cubs got some sort of exception or if Soler will get a promotion to AA in name only...

Same ol', same ol' from Daury Torrez. Thru 4 innings, 1 hit, no runs, no walks, 4 Ks. Besides that, a lot of comeback performances. Olt goes 4/4 with a double, HR and no Ks. Dolis makes a rehab start in Mesa throwing a hitless, scoreless inning with a BB and a K. Ryan Sweeney also with his first rehab start. Lim is back in AAA with a hitless/scoreless inning, 1 BB and 2 Ks. And Cabrera turns it around, getting his first scoreless appearance after 5 consecutive bad ones. He gives up a hit and a walk, but strikes out 2 while not allowing a run.

Is this the Duane Underwood we've all been waiting for? Thru 4 he is... 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.

Olt HRs...

This is helpful. Thanks. (No sarcasm.)

Just dreaming but... C - Castillo 1B - Rizzo 2B - Barney/Infante?/Kelly Johnson? SS - Baez (mid-season addition, Castro traded in a deal for Price) 3B - Valbuena/Vitters/Olt LF - Lake/Many others... CF - Choo RF - Schierholtz SP - Price, Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Arrieta/Villanueva/Grimm, (Maybe sign Halladay and try to get him healthy) RP - Vizcaino, Strop, Russell, Crain (FA), Parker, Rusin, Cabrera?, Lim? Bryant and possibly Alcantara (if he isn't included in the Price trade) would be in AAA. That team could win some games. A man can dream...

The Rays do have him under control for two more seasons after this, so the time to trade him might come after the 2014 season, but if Tampa Bay feels their staff is strong enough to succeed without him (Odorizzi & Colome are close), they certainly would get more for him by trading him with two years of control left than just one. Members of Rays management have stated that they will not or are not likely to trade Price this off season, but why would they say otherwise. For me, I'm confident that the 23-year-old Castro will continue to improve and at least return to the days when he was a 3.2 WAR player if not exceed it. This year he has been atrocious with a -0.5 WAR, and if offered in trade discussions, that will certainly be factored in. For his part, Price's WAR was 4.3 and 4.8 the last two seasons with a 2.6 so far this season. Clearly more would have to be offered than just Starlin. Pierce Johnson would have to go and likely one other good pitching prospect (Vizcaino, Edwards, Maples?) and perhaps another high-end hitting prospect like Soler/Alcantara/Vogelbach. Add in a reclamation project like Vitters/B. Jackson/Olt? Is this enough? Too much? I'm really on the fence and would love to hear your responses.