CubsWin

We can't take too much from his AFL numbers because of SSS, but they carry more weight for me because they line up so well with what he did in KC this season. His Low-A OPS - .841, AFL - .839. And the fact that he's 19 tells me he has a greater likelihood of carrying this type of production forward as he progresses into the majors. If in 2-3 years, the Cubs can have a GG caliber CFer hitting .290/.340/.460 that has great bat control and seemingly would make a prototypical two hole hitter...I'd take it.

Almora is the 2nd youngest player in the AFL. The youngest is Corey Seager is by just 11 days. Seager is hitting .155/.222/.310 with 21 Ks and 5 walks in 58 at bats. Almora is hitting .293/.339/.500 with 6 Ks and 4 walks also in 58 at bats. Albert has also outperformed SS Addison Russell who is the 3rd youngest in the league. Russell is hitting .246/.319/.393 with 10 Ks and 6 walks in 61 at bats. Small sample size, of course, but it's nice to see Almora doing so well against AA-ish competition and comparing favorably to other prospects taken in the 1st round in 2012. Albert went 6th, Addison 11th and Corey 18th. Also, Almora's profile of low walk totals as well as low strikeout totals is holding up so far against the better competition. In KC this season, Albert struckout in 12.0% of his at bats (too lazy to look up plate appearances right now) and walked in 6.8%. In the AFL so far, he's K'd in just over 10.3% of his at bats and walked in 6.9%. If anything, he's consistent. Oh, by the way, dude's 19...

Soler with a laser past the 1B for a lead off single. According to Mayo, pitch FX recorded the ball going 100 mph coming off of Soler's bat. It was smoked. First pitch fastball.

Huh? Edwards. The guy is [expletive] tiny looking. Ah. Don't know why they would. Buxton is listed at 6'2" 190 lbs. and is an outfielder. That's fairly prototypical size for a CFer, and the wear and tear on a starter and stamina needed to go deep into a game is very different than the size needed to play center. C..J. is 6'2" 155/160 lbs. which is very slight for a starter. It's not unprecedented that a starter that size can have great success. Pedro Martinez and Tim Lincecum were both 5'11" 170. Oswalt was 6'0" 190. If C.J. were able to get up to 190, I think a lot of the concerns on him would go away, but he has been trying to build muscle mass for a year now and so far the results have been limited. He's 22, so it's still possible, but until he does, the scouts will have reason to doubt.

Soler 4 batters away. Walked in his 1st at bat. This great to be able to watch. Had planned a trip to be there but work got in the way. Loving this,,,

Bryant pops to 2nd...

My bad, but which CJ?

Tough hop, but Bryant just let a hot shot right thru his legs. He leads off the next inning. Let's see if he can make up for it next inning...

Go here... http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?topic_id=7617858&content_id=31194447

Rivero no bueno today. 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K.

Agreed.

He's seemingly earned the respect of some AFL pitchers...

To nitpick, it was a .824 OPS last season, .814 over 500 plate appearances in the MWL which historically isn't known as an extreme pitcher's league. His .895 OPS in the FSL, which can be described as a fairly strong pitcher's league, was greatly influenced by the incredible amount of walks he took giving him a very impressive .455 OBP. He slugged a respectable .440 in the FSL in a small sample, but that aligns with his SLG in the MWL. Maybe it's just me, but I think if he stays at that level going forward (with his defensive concerns) he won't be making many top 100 lists. I was very pleased with his season developmentally, and I expect it will payoff this season with greater production. If he does produce well in the FSL and SL, it will feel like a breakout to me legitimizing him among prospect pundits across the board. That said, I get where you are coming from.

I get the he's already broken out thing. He certainly wouldn't be coming out of nowhere, but if he starts mashing like many think he can (.550 SLG, .375 OBP) and moves from 150-200 range to 75-100, that sure would feel like a breakout season to me even if within the parameters of this discussion it doesn't qualify.

At the end of next year or going into it?

Two more names to consider for guys who could make significant jumps next year are Trey Martin and Jose Arias. As far as your original breakout into top 100 guys qualification, I think Dan Vogelbach should be mentioned. I know a lot of Cubs fans already consider him "broken out", but he didn't put up the numbers many expected this season, and he certainly won't be on any top 100 prospect lists this spring. If he is, I'll be surprised. He's not my first choice to break into those ranks. That's Jeimer Candelario, but I think Vogey should be mentioned in a discussion like this.

I think you named most of the best candidates. I'm big on Candelario being the big breakout candidate for next season. He's my top choice. One guy I'm high on but wasn't mentioned is Mark Malave. He might not breakout next season, but I think he's got a shot to do so down the line.

At the unofficial start of the Fecal League (August 1st, right after the trade deadline), the Cubs were picking 6th. They leapfrogged the Brewers and the Twins to finish 4th. That about the worst possible finish and best possible draft pick Cubs fans could have hoped for. The Cubs flirted with performing so horribly that they could have caught the White Sox for the 3rd pick, but the Cubs couldn't suck enough to compete with a 9-game losing streak the Southsiders put together at the beginning of September. So, the 4th pick it is. We've managed to ring out the last bit of drama out of a fairly dramaless season. Now comes all the draft prospects lists and speculation and the long wait for college and high school spring baseball to pick up again.

There are 4 possible outcomes to the Cubs and Twins games today. Both teams lose, both teams win, the Twins win & the Cubs lose or the Cubs win & the Twins lose. Only the last scenario winds up with the Cubs picking 5th instead of 4th. That might lead one to believe that the Cubs have a 75% chance of picking 4th. Um, no. The Twins have Scott Diamond who is terrible and has been even worse recently going up against Ubaldo Jiminez who is good and has been even better recently. If Cleveland wins, there in the wildcard. They have every reason to win. The Cards would have had Joe Kelly pitching for them today, he of the big fastball and low ERA, except they decided to make a last minute change to a pitcher who has given up more hits than innings pitched, has a WHIP of 1.56 and has walked more than he's struckout. I'd put the Cubs chances of picking 4th next June at 50/50.

Magic number for the 4th pick is 2 with 2 to play.

Most likely it doesn't make a difference whether you pick 4th or 5th, but it can. We won't know how many "elite" prospects or where the 1st tier in prospects drops off until next May. If the Cubs pick 5th and there are clearly 4 elite prospects in next year's draft, then this whole tracking of the draft pick thing takes on a greater significance. We just can't know that yet.

I don't think it's necessary to have a low or lowish payroll when building with youth. You just need flexibility, i.e. shorter term contracts for veterans. That way when talent from the minors shows that it's ready to come up, they're not blocked long term by a vet whose contract will be difficult to move. You can still maintain a $100 million payroll and build from within so long as you don't have too many long term high priced veterans on the books.

Junior Lake is so good he contributes twice. Ha! Missed that. Good catch. Thanks.

God, I hope not. But yeah, it's possible. Arrieta could throw up a 3 WAR season by himself too though. Grimm and Rondon both look like they'll contribute nicely for the pen and Javy could just as easily give us 4 WAR in half a season than a 0. At any rate, if I were a bookie, I'd set the over/under at 5.5 for that group. I'd unfortunately take the under. I love Javy, but you think it's more likely he comes up and plays at an 8 WAR pace than him experiencing growing pains in his first tour? Justin Grimm's 8 major league innings has you penciling him in for a vital part in the pen? Rondon has good 2nd half #s, but it's all from September where opponents have a .067 BABIP against him. Arrieta's surface numbers look good, but again, he's got a crazy low hit rate, that is unsustainable. His peripherals haven't improved much since coming over, and aren't in the same universe as his peripherals good/standard bad year of '12. I'd take the under on 1 WAR for every guy on that list outside of Lake, Arrieta, and Baez, and I wouldn't bet the over on the last 2 (Baez is more to playing time) If you go back and read davell's post, what he said was Javy was just as likely to do great (give us 4 WAR in half a season) as he would be to flop (0 WAR), 50/50 either way. He didn't say it would be more likely that Javy would play at an 8 WAR pace. If we can extrapolate anything from his comment its that he thinks the most likely outcome is that Javy would put up a 2 WAR (right in the middle 0-4) in half a season. Justin Grimm has more than 8 major league innings. He has 111. Since July 24th, Hector Rondon has 21.2 IP, 16 H, 17 K/7 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 2.49 ERA, .208 BAA, and has been getting consistently better throughout the 2nd half. That said, I have no idea whether your WAR prediction is pessimistic or optimistic. Heck, we don't even know which guys will contribute from that list of 13.

Specifically the stats of where the team was when the new regime took over both talent wise, what their window for winning was and payroll wise. Plus the statistics of where the Cubs ranked both in quality of spring training facilities and presence in the Dominican. The logic then follows with amount of money it would take to increase the likelihood of winning at the major league level and the iffy chances of that investment paying off with a playoff caliber team, it would be wise to invest that money in their future.