cubsfan26

Just because Alfonseca sucked, doesn't mean Gregg will. Gregg Home/Away splits also show that Dolphin Stadium had very little effect in his results. Also keep in mind Gregg was pretty good out of the pen for the Angels in 06, his overall era was just higher due to him starting 3 games. He had a 3.45 era in 62.2 IP while striking out 62 and walking 19. Over the last three seasons out of the pen, he has a 3.47 era, striking out 206 with teams hitting just 227 against him in 215 IP. I expect Gregg to have simliar numbers for the Cubs next year. Plus if Gregg isn't pitching in the 8th or 9th who will be then? Vizcaino? Gaudin? Guzman might be a good option if you can count on him staying healthy? Samardzija maybe, but then he can't start and thats big role for such a raw pitcher IMO.

:banghead: DeRosa > Neal Cotts, Micah Hoffpauir, Ronny Cedeno, Chad Gaudin and Koyie Hill. Sadly thats not how you build a baseball team. Without Gregg we would have major question marks about the 8th or 9th inning. While the replacement at 2b is a guy who's hit well at every level and a career 300/379/853 hitter against RH pitching. Put it this way, the dropoff from DeRosa to Fontenot is alot smaller then Gregg to Vizcaino, Gaudin or counting on Angel Guzman health for the 8th or 9th.

Another thing I noticed about Hendry is when he makes a trade he usually hypes the players he gets in return to the media. He mentions how the scouts really like them, or we think he can do this or that. Yesterday Hendry did very little hyping of Garrett Olson, besides saying he could be a swing guy and that he was probably in the majors too soon. That tells me that Hendry probably isn't planning on keeping him. If he was I think we would hear about him having a great arm and how they think he could be a middle of the rotation starter in the next year or two. I heard very little about the prospects we got from the Indians either. So it's pretty obvious what Hendry plan is if he can do it. Here's what he was saying at the Cubs Convention when asked about Peavy. http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/01/09cubsconvday1.php

Good signing, some thought Gregg would get 5-6m at one point. I figured it would be closer to 4m, after he lost his closer job due to injury last season. With Cedeno/Gregg signings the payroll is now at around 137m. The Cubs still need to sign Wuertz to probably a 1.2m type contract, but when its all said and done the payroll should be around 138-139m. Trading Cedeno, and a reliever(Wuertz or Vizcaino) could bring the payroll back around 136-137m, which would keep Peavy salary in our budget range. If the new owner doesn't give us a payroll boost(to get Peavy) we probably have 6-7m to use on a free agent pitcher if we want.

Whats with this Kevin Gregg sucks stuff? Yeah he's not a great pitcher, but saying he hurts the team? People wanna pay part of his salary to go away? You guys haven't even seen him throw a pitch yet, and the guy allowed 2 more earned runs in 2 more innings then Kerry Wood did last year(teams hit just 203/314/582 against him). Hendry was just raving about Gregg saying we were lucky to get a guy like him, with closer experience for 4m(even though he cost Ceda). So there's no chance he goes anywere in a trade at this point.

If Olson, Stevens, and Archer(I hear alot of scouts like him) are a steaming bowl of nothing, then why would the Padres want those guys? Even if we don't make a Peavy deal, these guys are pieces we can use in trades during the season. Personally I think when it's all said and done, Vitters, Olson, Cedeno, Stevens or Atkins, Hart and Archer will be going to the Padres for Peavy. If were able to afford Peavy, the only hang up in trade talks I can see being is the Padres wanting Marshall instead of Stevens or Atkins. Or the Padres wanting the Cubs to add another quality postion player prospect in the deal(maybe Castillo). But Hendry/Towers already have had advance talks, and both know what it will take to get a deal done. So if the salary issue is no longer in the way, I think they can get something done.

Pay no attention to some of these people, they don't know how some of these moves will work out any better then you do. When a GM makes some questionable moves, and people are unsure if the team is better, they will often put their thoughts more towards the negative side. There's no doubt getting rid of Wood, DeRosa(two fan favorites), and Marquis is questionable. Especially when you replace them with a injury prone Milton Bradley, unproven player in Mike Fontenot(and a subpar player in Miles), a ok/solid pitcher in Kevin Gregg and most likely a unnamed starting pitcher who could be really good or a simliar pitcher to Marquis. So Hendry has put his a$$ on the line a bit. He could either look like a genius or a idiot by this time next year(right now people are leaning towards idiot). But If Bradley plays 120 plus games with a 900 plus OPS, Kevin Gregg gets the same results he has over the last few seasons, our rotation stays one of the best in the NL and Fontenot/Miles match DeRosa production. All of the sudden people will be saying well Hendry did a pretty good job. I learned a while ago, that freaking out offseason moves, and trying to judge if the team is better on paper then it was a year ago is meaningless. Last year at this time, very few thought the Cubs would be better then 07, and most people were saying the same type of stuff. I remember reading Lilly/Marquis will regress alot, Dempster in the rotation over Marshall also makes us worse. Kerry Wood is unlikely to stay healthy for a fullseason, and then were stuck with just Marmol and Howry. Fukudome will help, but he probably won't be any better then Floyd/Murton were in 07. Theriot will regress(we need Khalil Greene!), Pie will be lucky to match Jacque Jones 07 numbers and so on. Obviously some were right about a few of those things, but for the most part people were way off. Many fans were predicting 82-88 wins, and very few fans had the Cubs winning 90 plus. So lets see what happens next year, baseball seasons are often very unpredictable. Yeah I think people either put him on ignore or just ignore most of the things he says. I have noticed he does have a few followers on here, but for the most part it's always the same old thing with meph. The act got old a long time ago, and maybe if he stopped pretending like he's smarter then everyone else, he could bring something to the table. Starting this dumb thread about keeping Marquis, is just another reason to ignore him. But I guess I shouldn't talk. I'm sure people ignore half of the things I say on this board to.

:banghead: If the Cubs thought Harden shoulder issue was that serious I doubt they would have picked up the 7m option. Mark Prior was making very little money when they decided to keep him, and even got rid of him the last year of his deal. Plus Harden made 12 starts for us last year, so can we please stop overreacting? A healthy Harden for 30 starts doesn't make or break our season. The Cubs will be just fine with Harden for 15 starts next year and win the division still by 5 plus games. Everybody else pitching in the division is worse then us even if we have some injuries, and none of their offenses is as good as ours. So please relax

Wow it sure looks like Hendry is setting himself up for a potential Peavy deal. Even if we don't get Peavy though, this is a solid trade for us.

It's Kevin Gregg

Thats probably unlikely after back to back division titles and a 97 win season. Even though he let fan favorites in DeRosa and Wood go. Most fans will still give him the benefit of the doubt on this offseason moves, and see how these moves work out first. It's pretty hard to boo a guy, at this point.

Thats just how fans are, some think Hendry has done a good job but Lou is an idiot. Then there are fans who think Hendry is a idiot and Lou has helped him put a good team together. Then there are fans who think both guys are idiots, and the Cubs are just doing well because they spend money. Fans just like who they like, some can't forgive Hendry for a some poor moves he made over the years ago, and some can't forgive Lou for making some bad in game decisions. I think some bad moves both have made, stick with some people more then others and the good things about Hendry/Lou don't have the same impact on those people. Of course there are alot of fans who realize Hendry has made alot more good moves then bad, and Lou does alot more good then bad with the roster. But I think we will always see these mix of reactions from Cubs fans. IMO, I think Hendry, Lou and the Tribune Company all deserve some credit. Hendry for spending the money on the right players and putting a good team together, Lou for getting the roster to play up to it's potential, and for the Tribune for giving us the resources we need to get better. But if you give everyone credit for the success, who can the fans blame when something they don't like happens? There almost always has to be a scapegoat for fans. Right now Hendry is taking some heat for making some questionable moves. But if alot of those moves work out and the Cubs aren't playing great baseball(even for a short period of time), Lou will start taking the heat.

Yeah the way I look at it, the Cubs got a bargin on Marquis in 07+08 and only paid him 11m over those two years, when we should have paid him 14m. So next year, we're paying Vizcaino 1.5m next year, since the 800,000 we sent to the Rockies and other 2m was salary we owed Marquis from 07-08 anyways. So if Vizcaino rebounds and helps us out in the pen this year it's a good trade. If he sucks like last year he will be buried in the pen or we will get rid of him. But I still wouldn't be surprised at all if Hendry ends up trading him before opening day and finds away to save 1.5-2m of his salary. Still two years of Marquis(23-18 with a 4.43 era in 61 starts) and a year of Vizcaino for 16m isn't a bad contract at all IMO.

Hendry doesn't get it. The problem wasn't Marquis, it was Marquis contract. He was a very good 4th or 5th starter but he was payed like #1 or #2. Sabathia 7 years, 161 million Burnett 5 years, 82.5 million Lowe 4 years, 60 million Dempster 4 years, 52 million Moyer 2 years, 13 million Silva 4 years, 48 million Eaton 3 years, 24.5 million Hernandez (Orlando) 2 years, 12 million Igawa 5 years, 46 million (including posting fee) Lilly 4 years, 40 million Marquis 3 years, 21 million Matsuzaka 6 years, 103 million (including posting fee) Meche 5 years, 55 million Mulder 2 years, 13 million Mussina 2 years, 23 million Padilla 3 years, 33.75 million Schmidt 3 years, 47.5 million Suppan 4 years, 42 million Williams (Woody) 2 years 12 million Zito 7 years, 126 million There is every multi-year starting pitching deal given in the past 3 years. Every player who was considered a possible #1 or #2 at the time he was signed (Sabathia, Burnett, Matzuzaka, Schmidt, Zito, and possibly Lilly) got a contract that was much different from the one of Marquis. Just think about that. The best comparable contracts to the ones of Marquis on the market today? Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Mark Mulder, and Woody Williams. Is Marquis worse than that group? Absolutely not. Does spending money on average starting pitchers not make sense instead of dipping into the minor leagues? That argument has some merit as starting pitching gets a premium on the free agent market and the money might be able to be better spent in other areas. But as far as value on the market, Marquis was not overpaid. In fact, of the 20 contracts listed above, the one for Marquis will probably be ranked 6th or 7th when all is said and done for effectiveness. Great post, and that just tells me once again that Cubs fans just complain to complain. Sometimes fans just need sit back and see how some of these moves work out. Instead of calling Hendry names, and saying how much he sucks at his job and other crap. I'm all for people giving their opinions, but I think sometimes fans overreact a bit, and don't realize their opinions are wrong an awful lot. Hendry has made alot of moves over the last few seasons that many fans were wrong about, who says they won't be again next year.

Well once a guy actually wins the bid, he still needs approval from MLB. But once the guy actually wins the bid, Hendry plans on having a meeting with him to talk about the payroll, and what he could do. From what I hear the problem is the 2010 season, and adding another 15m salary. With around 116m invested in Zambrano, Dempster, Lee, Ramirez, Bradley, Soriano, Lilly, Fukudome and Miles. Adding Peavy would put us at 130m plus for just for 10 players. So to get Peavy next year, Hendry is probably gonna need a committed payroll of 160-170m for 2010 to make it work. So next year isn't a huge problem since they can probably fit Peavy in the budget after trading DeRosa/Marquis and probably dumping Wuertz or Vizcaino and Cedeno salaries. Even 2011 isn't a huge problem when you factor in Lee, Lilly, Miles and maybe Ramirez/Bradley salaries coming off the books. So if Hendry can't get the new owner to increase the 2010 payroll, he will probably offer a free agent pitcher a 1y deal at 5-8m. Which might get you Randy Wolf or Jon Garland, but Ben Sheets will probably want more then that. But maybe you can work out something with incentives, to get Sheets.

I guess this is a buddy for Fukudome in spring training. He has no chance to make the team with either Gathright or Pie on the roster let alone both. If Taguchi wants to stick around, he could be insurance in Triple A. But I bet he would rather return to Japan then play in Triple A.

You're also forgetting that Lou knows how to make a line-up card, and knows that walks are good. Dusty thinks too many players that walk equals bad. People can say whatever they want about Lou, but I think he's way better then Dusty. I don't think the 2004 Cubs had that much worse luck then the 2008 Cubs either. Yes Prior/Wood missed 10 plus starts each(Glendon Rusch pitched pretty good filling in though), but we didn't have perfect luck last year either. Soriano missed 53 games, Rich Hill lost it(only 12 starts from Harden), Howry was awful and even Zambrano missed some starts. There's no doubt in my mind that the 08 Cubs played much closer to their ablity then the 04 Cubs did. When that happens you gotta give your manager credit.

He just mentioned what most Major League managers do, and how they like their teams put together.

I can't imagine the Cubs preferring to have one guy who can backup 1B and one guy who can backup 2B/SS/3B. I just can't imagine this team operating with one backup middle infielder. It's very un Cubs like. Which is why it's possible that we actually might have a 6 man bench this season instead of 5.

Easy bench will be Hoffpauir, Miles, Bako(or whoever), Johnson and Gathright. Pie/Cedeno will most likely be traded(in a deal for Peavy or for low level talented prospects), and if we don't sign a Rich Aurilia type Hoffpauir is a lock to make the team. Because otherwise we don't have anybody who can back up at 1b. Lou isn't a stupid, he's not gonna have a bench with no power, so everyone needs to chill out about that. Plus I don't think it's a sure thing that we will have a five man bench again. With DeRosa no longer on the roster, it could cause the Cubs to carry a extra postion player.

Hendry saved 3.3m from going with Fontenot/Miles next year instead of DeRosa. With DeRosa gone Fontenot will get another 160-180 AB's at 2b. Just having Soriano for 130-140 games is another 130 AB's that would go to DeRosa in the outfield. Bradley, Hoffpauir, Gathright and Johnson will make up another 50 plus outfield AB's that would go to DeRosa. Aaron Miles might get 150-170 AB's that would have gone to DeRosa. The rest of Miles AB's will be taken away from Ronny Cedeno. Yes Hendry wanted to get more LH, but thats because he had a good LH bat(Fontenot) he wanted in the line-up everday against RH pitching. Aaron Miles isn't replacing DeRosa, he's replacing a small part of DeRosa, and replacing Cedeno as the back up at SS and 3rd. I don't understand why people keep trying to fight this, and try to make it sound like Hendry is stupid and got worse at a postion because he wants to get more LH. He did it save money(which he did), and hopefully get equal or better production from Fontenot. Hendry will never tell the media he's trading a player because of money. So he will come up with reasons like wanting to get more LH(which is the reason but not the main reason). But the real reason was to save money(3.3m), and give Fontenot(LH bat) a chance. Aaron Miles was brought in for insurance/platoon at 2b, and back up at SS/3b thats it. Just be patent that 3.3m will be spent towards SP most likely, hopefully it will be Peavy.

Last rumored contract offer I heard for Paul Bako was 1y at 500,000. I'm not sure if Koyie Hill will make more then that or not, but it's probably close to the same. But I would be shocked if Aurilia gets over 1m if he signed with the Cubs. He might get more money from someone else, but the Cubs aren't gonna pay him much. They have interest and might offer him a contract, but his role is gonna be Daryle Ward AB like, and the Cubs aren't gonna pay him much to do that.

He's a 37-year old extremely limited defensive player that can't come close to producing the numbers necessary at the positions he's stuck at, 3B and 1B. Teams just aren't throwing money to garbage guys like Aurillia this year. The demand for major league names to fill spots just isn't that high. Why pay a veteran $800,000 to take up at bats that a $400,000 kid who might have a future can do it? In normal times the kid is the better option, in uncertain economic times when tickets haven't even gone on sale yet it's even more of an obvious option. There's not gonna be a high demand for Aurilia, but teams are always interested in guys like him. I'm just saying Aurilia should be able to find a job making 1m plus next year, and get more playing time then 130-150 AB's. Like I pointed out with the Aaron Miles signing, bench players are still getting paid this offseason. Teams aren't scared to give a back up player 2m plus. Alex Cora and Jerry Hairston just got 1y at 2m deals, and Omar Infante just signed a new two year deal. Major league teams will look at his 283 average, 10 HR and 52 RBI's and think there pretty solid numbers for a back up. If you don't think so thats fine, but I think your giving too much credit to most major league GM's then.

Without DeRosa, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6 man bench a little more often next year.

Oh joy. What a terrible waste of a roster spot that would be. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-15-cubs-bits-chicagojan15,0,6211292.story I'd be a little scared about the role they had for him, but I don't mind him if he's just here to get a few spot starts at 1st and 3rd and come off the bench to hit left-handed pitching (which he is inconsistent with but still solid against). I think he fits onto this particular team a little better than Cedeno does. Cedeno's reverse splits really hurt him in a bench role because he's either the last guy off the bench against right-handed pitching or he gets sent up there against left-handers where he's terrible. Aurilia would actually get used in pinch-hitting situations where he could be moderately successful, and I'd rather have him get those starts at 3B than Miles. Yeah I can't see Aurilia really wanting to come to the Cubs, unless he really wants to win. Because he just isn't gonna get alot of AB's backing up 1b and 3rd. Playing 1b, 3rd and pinch hitting he will be lucky to get 130-150 AB's, which is about 250-300 less then he usually gets. So the Cubs have interest, but I doubt they want to pay him much, and I doubt he gets much AB's. So just because the Cubs have interest, doesn't mean Aurilia will want to come here in this role.