I'm working very hard to reconcile the first two sentences here. He means that he normally picks the Sweet Sixteen (first two rounds) very well but then fails at getting picks after that. This year he didn't get many Sweet Sixteen teams and isn't in good shape because he normally doesn't pick well after that. Right, if I were to have bet on my picks for the first two rounds over the last 10 years I'd have made a ton of money. If I'd have bet the whole tournament, nothing, or worse. This year, just a disaster start to finish.