davearm2

For anyone looking for a reason to be hopeful, it sure seems like the Braves' Friday deadline isn't going to be met.

The same thing was said about ARod last year. I'm not expecting Woody back, mind you, but until he signs someplace else it'll remain a possibility.

If you can't count any higher than a 2 year old, I suppose.

That's the real shame here, IMO. If there was a deal to be made for Hermida, you've got to think they'd have done it all at once.

I find it hard to believe that cost is any factor in the decision to bring the fences in at Petco. IIRC the Wrigley drainage/leveling/resodding project only cost a few million.

Hmmm... that comment about sluggers directly contradicts an earlier blurb (can't remember where I saw it) that the Pads were focusing on constructing their lineup with speed and defense as the priorities, given the way their ballpark plays. The Marquis tidbit is more obvious than interesting.

I'd say the bolded indicates that DonnieD's source must not be affiliated with the Cubs. If the Braves are just a bluff now, then the bluffee kinda has to be out of the loop, right? That points the finger at the Pads' FO, or perhaps Peavy's agent. Given that, I'd say it's noteworthy that desipio/Dolan was citing a Pads FO person for his insider info earlier Tuesday. Is the same "inside" person behind both tidbits? Are there two different "inside" people leaking the same basic info? Or is this all a sinister and inhumane plot to toy with our emotions?

Defensively? Because offensively he's pretty good Ibanez to a one year deal would be OK but he's getting older. I don't expect the same type of numbers from him 1-2 years from now. A 1 year deal would be ideal but he probably will at least demand a 2 year deal and possibly at least a 3rd year option, I wouldn't be opposed to a 2 year 18-22 mil. deal. Now that Willingham got traded I doubt Hermida is available(unless we overpay). It looks like Ibanez is a real possibility, unless we open up the check book (unlikely) for Dunn or Abreu. Or take a big chance on Bradley as it is unlikely that he can make it through a full season healthy playing 150+ games in the field. Ibanez is probably my first choice of all the available FA even though I really want Hermida, but that is looking unlikely. Frankly I don't think Bradley represents that much injury risk at all, given the depth the Cubs have. I don't mind a scenario where Bradley puts up a 900-950 OPS but spends 30 or 40 games on the DL. That'd pave the way for some combination of Fontenot (DeRo to RF), and/or Hoffpaiur to play more regularly for a couple weeks at a time. Or you shift Fukudome over to RF and give Pie the extra ABs in the CF platoon. Plenty of decent short-term options there. IMO the risk Bradley represents is his combustability, but I'd feel ok about that with the Cubs' veteran clubhouse and Lou's no-nonsense approach. I would say missing 30-40 games would be considered a injury risk, that is roughly 1/5 of the games. I agree we do have great depth but Ibanez is the safer bet to stay healthy and therefore produce better numbers, however if Bradley is healthy for the full season he could put up some good numbers and I do like the fact he is a switch hitter. If we end up with either I would be happy. Perhaps I wasn't clear. Injury risk? Yes. But one that's easily and effectively manageable, thus negating most of the damage. Ibanez' defense is a scary thought. I think Bradley would be appreciably better in that regard but perhaps not.

Defensively? Because offensively he's pretty good Ibanez to a one year deal would be OK but he's getting older. I don't expect the same type of numbers from him 1-2 years from now. A 1 year deal would be ideal but he probably will at least demand a 2 year deal and possibly at least a 3rd year option, I wouldn't be opposed to a 2 year 18-22 mil. deal. Now that Willingham got traded I doubt Hermida is available(unless we overpay). It looks like Ibanez is a real possibility, unless we open up the check book (unlikely) for Dunn or Abreu. Or take a big chance on Bradley as it is unlikely that he can make it through a full season healthy playing 150+ games in the field. Ibanez is probably my first choice of all the available FA even though I really want Hermida, but that is looking unlikely. Frankly I don't think Bradley represents that much injury risk at all, given the depth the Cubs have. I don't mind a scenario where Bradley puts up a 900-950 OPS but spends 30 or 40 games on the DL. That'd pave the way for some combination of Fontenot (DeRo to RF), and/or Hoffpaiur to play more regularly for a couple weeks at a time. Or you shift Fukudome over to RF and give Pie the extra ABs in the CF platoon. Plenty of decent short-term options there. IMO the risk Bradley represents is his combustability, but I'd feel ok about that with the Cubs' veteran clubhouse and Lou's no-nonsense approach.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-11-06-peavy_N.htm?csp=34 With hearing how impatient the Braves are being in this deal, it's obviously them. If no trade has been made by the 14th then maybe it means the Braves are out? I thought it'd be us, since we want to get a deal with Dempster done before that date? Hendry is not a "set a deadline" kind of fellow. Especially not if he's really serious about obtaining Peavy and also re-signing Dempster.

Indeed. The Marlins sure look to be bailing on all of their guys with questionmarks.

I thought that comment was very curious as well.

Soto's offense didn't look like anything special at Castillo's current age either: .756 OPS in AA at 21; .629 the year before in Daytona.

Last I checked, the Padres play in a pitcher's park too.

It would certainly be an interesting wrinkle if the Padres let both the Braves and Cubs know that they would have the winning bid for Peavy if they could add Olsen to it. Towers to the Braves: Escobar, Olsen, Morton is a deal. Towers to the Cubs: Pie, Olsen, Marshall, Cedeno is a deal. Braves and Cubs then enter a bidding war for Olsen. Marlins win.

FWIW, one of the advanced defensive measures (can't recall which it was) had Brad Hawpe as the worst defensive RF in all of baseball last year. IIRC, the next-worst was Bobby Abreu. And then you've got the idea of taking an awful LF like Dunn or Ibanez and making him an even bigger liability by playing him in RF. For as disappointing as Fukudome was offensively, his defense was every bit as good as advertised -- better even.

You called? Cubs sign Furcal and then trade Marshall, Veal/Hart, and Ceda to Marlins for Hermida and Olsen. Cubs trade Olsen, Pie, Theriot, and Hill to SD for Peavy. Furcal @ SS, Hermida in RF, and Peavy in the rotation. The Marlins wouldn't do that Agree there. One could envision a scenario where Olsen's attitude issues are such that the Marlins would take Marshall for him straight up. Kinda sketchy IMO, but plausible. That leaves them sending Hermida for Ceda and junk. Big no on that one. Add Pie, though, and now you're talking. I know I'll be in the minority on this one, but frankly I'd be OK with dropping the Peavy pursuit and "settling" with an offseason of: Dumping Marquis and recouping $5-6M of his $10M Re-signing Wood and Dempster Acquiring Hermida and Olsen -- Olsen to Marquis' #5 slot Spending the Marquis savings on a reliever like Cruz or Affeldt. Lineup: improved w/ Hermida Rotation: basically unchanged but more upside Olsen vs. Marquis Bullpen: improved w/ Cruz/Affeldt

I'd rather have Peavy. We don't need another backloaded contract killing this club in the future, which a deal to Sabathia likely would be. Peavy would be cheaper, slightly younger, and arguably just as good as Sabathia would be. Plus I thought Piniella said we don't have the luxury of going balls to the wall crazy with free agents because of the ownership change in limbo and we have to fix ourselves through trades? I don't think Peavy is close to as good as Sabathia right now. I'd be worried about how Peavy would do without playing half his games in Petco. Plus he was very Kazmiresque this season with his high pitch counts causing him to leave the game early all the time. Meanwhile Sabathia is an innings eating mahcine. I agree with you that I'd probably rather have Peavy at the price each owuld cost, but I don't think there's any way you could say Peavy is as good as Sabathia right now. Who is to say Sabathia will still be as good? Sabathia pitches 9 innings, yeah. But at what cost? High pitch counts each time out? Future arm issues? Who knows. Maybe he is a freak of nature. But the fact remains that Peavy is still an ace on almost any staff, and he will cost $8 mil (or $9, don't remember) this year, while Sabathia will cost someone $20 million. I'll still take Peavy. That gap between ability and payroll savings is too much to ignore, IMO Peavy's primary cost is in players traded, and you're leaving that part out of your equation completely.

I really hate this line. Either the GM utilizes his resources correctly, or he doesn't. There have been plenty of 'expensive' teams that are not playoffs teams over the last 10 years. If you believe he has correctly utilized his budget when acquiring talent, then you can't come to the conclusion that he's not a good baseball man and just fortunate. If you believe he has poorly utilized his budget when acquiring talent, then it seems reasonable to question his baseball talent evaluation skills, but then you have to do an adequate job explaining how a consensus elite and deep team is merely a fortunate team. It is a tough argument to sell that he is a poor GM coming off a 97 win season in which the team had an elite offense (2nd in MLB Runs, 3rd in MLB OPS), an elite pitching staff (3rd in MLB Runs Allowed, 3rd in MLB OPS Against), and a middle-of-the-pack defense. And it is very much the same team from 2007, and likely the same team in 2009 which will be projected as the 90+ Win division holder once again. Every year the Cubs have been contenders Hendry has gone out and gotten something to fill a hole, or even just to bolster a weak spot. What have the Cubs lost for them? Bobby Hill, Hee Seop Choi, Dontrelle Willis? Ricky Nolasco is about all the Cubs have lost off the top of my head that I would really want back. Then think of '03-'04. Hill, Choi, Willis, Hundley, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris out the door for ARam, Lofton, Simon, Lee, Karros, Grudzielanek, Nomar, Clement, and Murton. Murton, Sean Gallagher and Eric Patterson netted us Harden and Gaudin this year. You get the picture, he get's a lot back on his returns. Sure he's made some stupid moves (Pierre), but at the same time everybody was begging for a leadoff hitter and the Cubs still don't have one. I'll take my chances with Jim any day. I personally have to agree with Soul. He isn't a good baseball man but a fortunate one. Fortunate to have/had basically the unlimited resources and money from the Tribune Company. Being able to read ESPN's or Baseball America's top winter free agent list and then throw the most money at the "top player" doesn't make you a good baseball man. Being able to know when and where you need or not need to spend money, who to promote, who to trade, who to keep makes you a good GM. This is where guys like Billy Beane and John Schuerholz excel, which makes them "good baseball men". I know hindsight is 20/20...but I knew it was a mistake 2 years ago and again last year with the signing of Soriano and Koske...we did not need those guys. Murton was a good left fielder that was young and developing. The kid hit over .300 his rookie year, then led the team in hitting his second year, the year before they brought in Soriano. The money that went to Fonzie could have gone to a stud #1 pitcher. He could have put a package together or Pie, Marshall, etc. to land Santana and then signed him to a long term deal with that money. The recipe for building a dynasty is simple and pretty well documented by the Braves of the 90's, Yankees of the 90's, and A's in the year part of this decade...You build from within, then add a couple key free agents to fill holes that you haven't developed with your own guys. Sure the first couple years will be tough, all those Yankees, Braves, A's teams were bad, but then they turned it around, and sustained a championship level for many years. If you say the Cubs haven't been able to develop any players like Jeter, or Smoltz, Glavin, Chipper Jones, Andrew Jones, or Giambi, Tejada, who were the cornerstone type players or those organizations, then who's fault is that?? It's got to be the GM's and the guys he picks to be in charge or developing those minor league guys. Which gets back to being a true "baseball man". Sorry for the rant...I blame it on the election coverage. The bolded sentence above precisely describes what the Cubs have done. Current players the Cubs have developed: Wood Zambrano Marmol Samardzija Wuertz Marshall Hill Guzman Soto Theriot Fontenot (partial) Pie Cedeno Current players the Cubs have obtained by trading players they developed: Lee Ramirez Harden Gaudin Sorry, but that's a list that most (not all) other clubs would be envious of. Significant free agent adds: Soriano Fukudome DeRosa Lilly Marquis Not sure what definition of "build from within, then fill holes with FAs" you're using, if that ain't it.

This is the by far the most innocuous fiasco in the history of fiascos.

I didn't get the impression that this was a prediction.

Sweet, more power pitchers with control problems. Overheard on Nats boards everywhere: "Sweet, more finesse pitchers with zero upside."

I don't think he has leverage anymore. In Kosuke's introduction press conference, he said he chose the Cubs because the Cubs want him to play his natural position of RF. It was an organizational promise by the Cubs that the Cubs have now broken. I certainly understand that sentiment, but Fukudome has to be big enough to realize that the change in circumstances was precipitated by his own underperformance. I'm sure the Cubs would greatly prefer to have Fukudome playing RF every day and producing at a $12M level.

I can follow the logic well enough, but you have to ask yourself if the best solution for an already defensively-challenged club is to have three guys playing out of position on an everyday basis.

ML-ready speed and pitching, huh? Seems to me the names in play would be Pie, Theriot, Marshall, Marmol, Gaudin, Ceda. Possibly Hill if they're into a reclamation project. Possibly Cedeno instead of Theriot. Possibly Greene coming back our way as a salary dump. Some fringey pitchers that could be sweeteners would include Wuertz Hart Guzman Cotts Atkins Veal. For as good as Peavy is, those are some scary salary figures after '09. Granted he'd get that and more as a FA, but if a team was getting him as a FA, it wouldn't be costing them players on top of the $$$. I think that extension might suppress Peavy's trade value a bit, actually. Using the Santana trade as a guideline might not be too far off here: Carlos Gomez and three minor league arms.