Looking at raw RA and RS numbers is dumb. Saying that the Cubs have a better offense than the Padres because they've scored more runs doesn't work. You can find over and underperformances on every team, every year. I'd rather have Franklin and Springer underperform than Reyes, Kennedy and Wells. OMG DARYLE WARD By people you mean Cubs fans. I'm not going to make generalizations on a Cubs board (I'm here because I like the posters and the discussion) but it's really pathetic. I understand it came to a head in 2006 with the so-called improbable run, but it can also be argued that was a 90-win team on paper. And until the Cardinals actually get good? I know Tony Womack was solely responsible for the 855-run offense in 2004, but I swear they've had some decent teams over the last decade. It's been less than half-hearted, trust me. Sorry to cut off your novel here, but I'm talking about Duncan from a scouting perspective. I realize anyone can look up his IsoP on firstinning or thecube (And now BRef!). There have been two guys in the Cardinals system that could flick their wrists and hit a ball over the fence lately: Duncan and Ankiel. He put it together late, for a variety of reasons, but I'll also point out that he's a 117 OPS+ LF with not-so-hot defense right now. None taken. I concede no points here, because you have no good ones. Duncan hit like crazy last year for half a season. Right now, he's sitting on his PECOTA projection (not too dissimilar to Theriot's 2006-2007). A lot of the perceived luck, especially with role players, is just a byproduct of Jocketty m.o. anyway. Systemic fallout like Larry Bigbie and Junior Spivey never get mentioned because they don't fit the screed.