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haltz

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Everything posted by haltz

  1. Sons of Sam Horn has a Statistical Reference Page on their Wiki. Probably not exactly what you are looking for, and I haven't really looked at it in a while, but it can be helpful.
  2. Yeah, where to start ... Oh I know, how about that he hit those ten homers at a greater rate than the 21? Was he using steroids in 2001 when he hit 10 homers in 105 at-bats as a part-time DH, or in 2005 when he hit 21 in 311 at-bats after he gave up pitching?
  3. Looking at raw RA and RS numbers is dumb. Saying that the Cubs have a better offense than the Padres because they've scored more runs doesn't work. You can find over and underperformances on every team, every year. I'd rather have Franklin and Springer underperform than Reyes, Kennedy and Wells. OMG DARYLE WARD By people you mean Cubs fans. I'm not going to make generalizations on a Cubs board (I'm here because I like the posters and the discussion) but it's really pathetic. I understand it came to a head in 2006 with the so-called improbable run, but it can also be argued that was a 90-win team on paper. And until the Cardinals actually get good? I know Tony Womack was solely responsible for the 855-run offense in 2004, but I swear they've had some decent teams over the last decade. It's been less than half-hearted, trust me. Sorry to cut off your novel here, but I'm talking about Duncan from a scouting perspective. I realize anyone can look up his IsoP on firstinning or thecube (And now BRef!). There have been two guys in the Cardinals system that could flick their wrists and hit a ball over the fence lately: Duncan and Ankiel. He put it together late, for a variety of reasons, but I'll also point out that he's a 117 OPS+ LF with not-so-hot defense right now. None taken. I concede no points here, because you have no good ones. Duncan hit like crazy last year for half a season. Right now, he's sitting on his PECOTA projection (not too dissimilar to Theriot's 2006-2007). A lot of the perceived luck, especially with role players, is just a byproduct of Jocketty m.o. anyway. Systemic fallout like Larry Bigbie and Junior Spivey never get mentioned because they don't fit the screed.
  4. This divisional format and Wild Card system hasn't been around long enough for this point to be meaningful. The playoffs are a crapshoot. But, just for ***** and giggles, the Twins were outscored by their opponents in 1987. Fun with park factors: 97 OPS+, 94 ERA+. They are plus seven games on their pythag. Some luck, some bullpen and management probably. If you run a pythag% by runs created it lines up pretty well. Crapshoot. And you mean 2006, not "every year". Spiezio had a second career year in less than 300 at-bats. Woo hoo. Aside from that triple, this had about as much to do with it as Womack's year in 2004. Rick could always hit. Duncan could always hit for power. And why stop at Springer and Franklin when talking about small sample runs against numbers? Let's include post-surgery Izzy and Percival who hasn't pitched in the bigs lately. The Cardinals are bad, for these reasons. I'm not sure this is the point you're trying to make. Is it OK if I just refer you to the first time I answered these questions? They're at the top of my post. Should I go through all the "bad luck" and failed second baseman, or are we good here?
  5. Franklin's season is smoke and mirrors. These things happen. He's also a failed starter that's finding some success as a reliever with a new approach under Dave Duncan. Something tells me that JK Rowling is going to pass on this one. The Cardinals have been playing good baseball over the last 30 games, and the division sucks enough that they're in contention after the brutal start. It's not that mystical dude. There's another thread about Cardinals luck here and I don't have much to add beyond what Wolf and Ky had to say. A franchise getting lucky with players (career years, peaks, utilization, exploitation, straight luck) is one thing, but thinking that players are better because they are wearing a certain uniform is delusional.
  6. I agree. Ankiel and others are better at baseball because they are wearing a Cardinals uniform. I honestly believe that. Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go try and catch a unicorn.
  7. Maybe it's semantics, but calling HGH "juice" like it's on par with steroids at all, is misleading. I'm not saying that you don't understand or realize that. I'm just pointing it out.
  8. I guess I forgot that magic exists.
  9. Good point, except neither of these probably help you much at all.
  10. Rate-wise, he's right with (or a just touch ahead by OPS+) Mize, Williams and Pujols. If he slips down the stretch this changes, and considering the fact that Pujols and Williams had close to 700 PA, I would say that he's probably not.
  11. A .913 prOPS in LF isn't this good.
  12. I think that depends on who's doing the "rating". On the whole I don't think he's underappreciated. According to UZR, there's probably a 45-run defensive swing in a given year between Everett and Jeter. At the ASB Everett was on pace for +35 and Jeter was on pace for -24 per 150 (smaller sample for Everett, his season was over on June 14th). Last year, UZR had Everett 48 runs above average on the season. PECOTA pegs Everett as a few runs above replacement level hitting, and Jeter at a 55 VORP. So, depending on how much you trust those metrics and projections, and whether Everett will ever hit at all, Jeter's probably not a whole lot better. People just don't say that though.
  13. Oh yeah, there's the SB/CS numbers which are evident when you look at Ozzie and Omar's EqAs.
  14. Really? Do people rate Snow as much more than a poor man's Mark Grace? Vizquel will get more votes than you think. And say what you want about BP's fielding, but we've got a difference of 30 WARP here.
  15. Fangraphs has IFFB. Lee is higher than last year but Ramirez is lower. Both are below their career rates.
  16. I remember that from my Daulton spaceman GRB thread. That Jefferies anecdote never gets old. Another guy who is underrated considering his defense.
  17. Tom-AY-to, Tom-AH-to, J-EE-ter, Pol-AH-nco
  18. Olerud was a seriously above-average fielder too, if I remember correctly. That's a good one. How about Darren Daulton? 113 OPS+, and three AS appearances to show for it.
  19. A couple of 2B, although part of both careers falls outside the last 25 years. Bobby Grich, 125 OPS+ Lou Whitaker, 117 OPS+
  20. Underrated is kind of a nebulous term. Depends on who you're talking to I guess. I'll put forth Devon White though. He was basically a league average hitter with a weak OBP, but he might be the best defensive outfielder of the last 20 years. Mantle has about a 20 pt EqA advantage. The Hurt's peak was nasty though.
  21. Maybe you missed it, but the rosters expanded. They probably didn't plan on using Jimenez or Cavazos today, but that's because they probably didn't plan on being behind by 11 runs.
  22. For even more Maroth fun, we can do some selective endpointing and just look at his line as a Cardinal. That's a 7.70 FIP and 13.36 RA. Reyes hasn't been good this year, but he's also been somewhat unlucky by component measures. This move, coupled with Mulder getting a start without ever facing a single ML hitter, is beyond me. Good thing the Cardinals are going to a six-man rotation of mostly terrible pitchers as the rosters are expanding. *throws chair*
  23. The Brewers defense is obviously awful, but all five of the Cubs starters probably have some control over their BABIP to varying degrees. The only one with a career number higher than .288 is Lilly at .290. FIP does some slight under and overrating when it comes to BABIP. It doesn't look like there's much skill here among the Brewers rotation. Five more, and there's a park factor here.
  24. There's also the assumption that PEDs solely and magically make people hit taters. It's easy to assume that Brady Anderson was juicing in 1996, but it's not like Randy Velarde ever hit 50 bombs. I don't really want to get into a debate about whether steroids even help all that much or not, and what kind of conclusions we can draw from weight gain, and Triple Crown stats. Apparently my views aren't widely held. Anyway, Sosa's pitch data summary on B-Ref supports your assertion. His P/PA went up and his Swing% (strikes only) went down. First pitch swinging went way down. Steroids or not, I'm pretty sure a change of approach precluded his sustained peak.
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