lumafia

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome. I agree it is a very difficult hurdle to overcome. I mentioned that in my first post on this subject. It almost exclusively eliminates hitters from being considered long-term ML performers. However, while it is difficult to overcome, it is not impossible. Typically, players with high K/BB ratios have mechanical problems. A great example is Corey Patterson. I posted many years ago as Corey was coming into MLB a similar post. I explained how Corey had a "hitch" in his swing during the load. When he picked his leg up (which was too high, by the way) he actually dropped his hands slightly before moving them up and back. This caused a very slight delay that reduced the amount of time Corey had between recognition of the pitch and actually firing his hands. I explained at the time that this was a mechanical issue that could be corrected, and if it wasn't, he would have a very un-spectacular career. Corey is still a servicable OF and has put up decent numbers this year, and in a couple of years after he left Chicago. He experienced gradual improvement over his first few years due to experience and knowledge, but once he had a decent year, the league re-adjusted to him. At that point, it was difficult for him to recover. He has been decent at times since then, but despite the fact that he has unbelievable physical gifts, his mechanical flaws hurt his ability to maximize those gifts. That's just one example. If you want to try to find that post, I was posting under either mafia3512 or lumafia35. I don't remember my login info from that long ago, or I would find some of those posts myself.

What evidence do you have to support your claim? He looks pretty doing poorly? Why is that better than looking awkward doing well? His fatal flaw, high strikeouts with no walking, has proven to be a very difficult hurdle for hitters to overcome. To which claim are your referring? That his swing is mechanically sound? I thought I explained that in my original post. claim: an assertion of something as a fact observation: an act or instance of noticing or perceiving. Hitters don't look awkward and do well. A hitter can look awkward prior to the swing, but in order for a hitter to have prolonged success at the ML level, they HAVE to be mechanically sound from the moment there hands fire to the point of contact. Whatever happens prior to the load and after contact, is irrelevant.

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected. And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile. How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785? He has clearly been better in 2010 as an everyday player than he was as an everyday minor league player. His K/BB ratio is a little worse since being in the ML, but that should be expected for a guy who hasn't even had 350 AB's in the ML. As I stated in a previous post, . He has much more to learn, but the hardest part, sound mechanics, is the least of his worries. Maintaining, and improving upon, those mechanics will be the most vital component of his career. He's had 344 plate appearances in his first full season of ML baseball. It's not unusual for a young player to look awkward at times at the plate. He's going to get fooled, but his sound mechanics are allowing him to overcome some of those shortcomings. For the 3rd time, I'm not saying that he will be an all-star or a hall of famer, I'm simply pointing out that mechanically, his 2010 swing is indicative of someone who should have had better minor league numbers. This would lead me to believe that he has made some mechanical improvements and/or added strength to account for the offensive improvements. He said he's been terrible for a while now, not the whole season. He was very good through May. As for " How does an .815 OPS in his first full season mean he's been pretty terrible", I'd say at least some of it is luck and small sample size. He's been regressing pretty substantially the last 2-3 months. If he can hold on this year, then put up similar numbers in coming years, then you'd have a point. I never made a point. I was making observations. Colvin has a sound mechanical swing. This means he has less to overcome than hitters with swings that aren't as mechanically sound. If he is able to improve the "mental" side of the game, he could have a productive career. That's a big "if", but not bigger than the mechanical "if's".

Except that really doesn't do that at all. He had a really interesting start to his career but he's been pretty terrible for a while now that he's been playing with more regularity. It was always a pretty safe bet to say Colvin would see a fair amount of playing time, but his numbers, .277/.320/.465 341k/105bb/1800PA in the minors indicate he's probably not going to be very good. His major league numbers, .247/.306/.487 90k/26bb/344PA show much of the same, with the lone exception of a few more HR than expected. And I really don't see how his mechanics can be considered so pretty when he looks so clueless so frequently swinging at absolute garbage and missing by a mile. How does an .815 OPS in his first full season in ML baseball mean that he's been "pretty terrible", when his minor league OPS was .785? He has clearly been better in 2010 as an everyday player than he was as an everyday minor league player. His K/BB ratio is a little worse since being in the ML, but that should be expected for a guy who hasn't even had 350 AB's in the ML. As I stated in a previous post, . He has much more to learn, but the hardest part, sound mechanics, is the least of his worries. Maintaining, and improving upon, those mechanics will be the most vital component of his career. He's had 344 plate appearances in his first full season of ML baseball. It's not unusual for a young player to look awkward at times at the plate. He's going to get fooled, but his sound mechanics are allowing him to overcome some of those shortcomings. For the 3rd time, I'm not saying that he will be an all-star or a hall of famer, I'm simply pointing out that mechanically, his 2010 swing is indicative of someone who should have had better minor league numbers. This would lead me to believe that he has made some mechanical improvements and/or added strength to account for the offensive improvements.

Hendry will do what he always does. He will hold out to hire his guy. He did the same with Dusty Baker. We all get to sit back and watch all of the best available alternatives get gobbled up by other teams while Hendry waits for the guy that HE wants to manage to give him a yes or a no. This manager will hold out long enough where Hendry won't have any other options, and he will get to name his own price. I fully expect him to put the blinders on.

Pitch recognition is mechanical and physical. Eyesight allows for improved pitch recognition, and that is physical. Being able to find the release point and see the spin on the ball as it leaves the pitcher's hand IS pitch recognition. Good mechanics can allow more time for the hitter to determine velocity, location and movement, thus allowing him more time for pitch recognition. It takes a 90 MPH fastball .417 seconds to travel 55 feet (release point to hitting zone). It takes between .2 and .3 seconds for your eyes to send the message to your muscles to fire. Then, a very complex chain of events happens. If improved mechanical function can reduce that time, even by .009 of a second, there can be drastic improvement in the quality of contact. Understanding what a pitcher is trying to do, advanced scouting, knowing the situation, experience against the pitcher, etc., will help him in developing a good "guessing game" as a hitter. That is the mental approach, and a vast majority of that is developed with experience and time.

Yeah, there are tons of guys who have beautiful swings when they smack a home run and then look like complete morons the bulk of the time they're at the plate. I appreciate lumafia's well thought out analysis, but having a good swing doesn't seal the deal. I never had an opportunity to review Kelton's swing in detail, so I couldn't agree or disagree with you. You are correct. Having a good swing certainly does not "seal the deal". However, there are things that can be taught to a hitter at 23 years old, and there are things that cannot. A hitter can learn how to scout certain pitchers, what to expect in certain counts, how other teams are trying to get him out, etc, and try to make adjustments. Due to muscle memory, it is nearly impossible to change a hitter's mechanics at such a late age. You can make tiny improvements, but few of them can have the exponential effect that adding strength can have, for example. That's what makes the mechanics so important. The more sound the mechanics are, the more time a hitter has to account for velocity, movement and location. If the mechanics aren't sound, a hitter can know that a 98 mph heater is coming, and never touch it. Sound mechanics will trump the mental aspect of hitting. The point of my original post was to merely to point out why, or how, Colvin's numbers have managed to improve from the minors until now. It seems that many people like to use his minor league splits in order to determine what level of success he will have at the ML level. My intention was to point out that there are other, non-statistical, factors that can be used in analyzing a hitter for the purposes of developing an idea how much success they will, or will not, have. He does look lost in some AB's, but I would expect that of many young ML hitters. There are countless examples of good ML hitters who have struggled at times in their first 300 AB's. He was never going to lace them up on opening day and own this league. Hitters at the MLB level always improve with experience (everyday experience), unless they have some overwhelming mechanical, or physical (vision problems, health issues) issue that pitchers are able to exploit.

At this point, I don't see how they avoid losing 100 games. The remaining schedule is pretty brutal. They are either playing first place teams, or teams that own them (HOU and PIT).

4-19 in the last 23 games. .173 winning %. For a full season that would be a 28-133 record. Ha.

Tyler Colvin has been intriguing to me based on the binary opposition of the fan base as it pertains to his future. In reviewing his stats alone, it is easy to see why many fans who enjoy statistical analysis (I do) would be skeptical. His numbers are all over the place. His strikeout to walk ratio alone almost disqualifies him from ever being a significant ML contributor. There are a few players that compare favorably to Colvin in sample size, age and production that keep hin on the border of not "I'm not quite ready to give up on him". Larry Walker is a great example. However, his swing tells me something different than his stats. Mechanically, Tyler is as sound as any hitter on the current Cub team, and vastly superior to many players around the league. I've often explained that the most important thing to a hitter is time. Time makes all the difference in the world. A fraction of a fraction of a second can make the difference between a dribbler down the 1B line and a 450ft line drive home run to left-center. A hitter needs time to determine 3 things. Velocity, Location and Movement. The more time a hitter has to figure these 3 things out, the better he will be. The swing mechanics, and the mechanics prior to the swing are vital in increasing the time a hitter has to determine these 3 things. Tyler does not make any of the typical mistakes that ML hitters make. He doesn't drop his hands, or "hitch" (Corey Patterson). He doesn't have much vertical or horizontal movement of his upper or lower body perpendicular to the path of the ball. He doesn't have much horizontal movement parallel to the path of the ball. His load is quiet and well-timed. He gets great torque in his hip rotations without dragging his hands. His track to the ball is short and compact, and his track through the zone is generally pretty flat and the barrel of the bat stays in the zone for an appropriate amount of time. Again, his mechanics are pretty sound. The only weak points I can see, which would be weak points with any tall hitter, is that his bat doesn't stay along the plane of the ball for very long. Since the strikezone is lower in relationship to his hands than a guy who is 6'1, the bat can't stay as flat. While tall hitters enjoy greater leverage, and the advantage of gravity assisting them on the downward plane through the strike zone, they can also be at a disadvantage if they stand upright. They can compensate for this disadvantage by being well-prepared, increasing strength and/or adjusting their stance to make them slightly lower to the ground. Widening your stance by 3 inches can lower the appropriate position of your hands by 1 to 2 inches. Doesn't sound like alot, but when you're adjusting for fractions of a second, a couple of inches is virtually a mile. The other issue is his tendancy to drop his body slightly after the load and right before he swings. The problem here is that his head is moving. Tall hitters will do this in order to try to compensate for the fact that their swing is on too much of a downward plane through the strikezone. To a guy who is 6'3 or taller, a pitch in the lower part of the strikezone can take a swing similar to a golf swing. A tall hitter needs to be exponentially more accurate in order to make solid, level contact on a ball down in the zone. Based on his current swing, I can't see any reason why he would have struggled the way he did in the minors. You can't teach a better swing than he has based on his body type. I'm beginning to wonder if added strength has been a factor in the sudden improvement. Everybody can talk all they want about the effect strength has on hitting, but it is enormous as long as everything else remains equal. If a guy with Colvin's frame adds just 15 pounds of muscle, the impact could be enormous. Because of the tall frame, he doesn't lose much flexibility or range of motion, but the added strength gives him additional time to determine Velocity, Location and Movement. One thing I have noticed in comparing video from Colvin at Clemson to recent video is that he doesn't "wrap" the bat as much. This is when a hitter's bat wraps around his head during the load. At Clemson, his bat would almost be pointing at the pitcher prior the swing. Now, the bat has a more vertical position just before the swing. This can also make a huge difference as the bat has a shorter distance to travel prior to contact with the ball. These are some general observations, as I do not have the time to review hours of video of Colvin. In summary, Colvin appears to have undergone some mechanical changes since college, which could have hurt him in terms of productivity while developing muscle memory, and he could have undergone some physical changes where added strength could easily account for offensive improvement. In terms of mechanics, there is nothing in his swing that sends up a red flag. I'll take a mechanically sound hitter over a smart hitter all day long.

Cubs are 4-18 in their last 22 games. Just throwing that out there. I'd put Colvin at 3B at this point, even if he is LH. Who cares.

Fortunately for Castro, the defense at SS has been bad for a long time. Even in 07 when the Cub defense was considered good, they had 19 errors at SS.

The Cubs are now 4-18 over their last 22 games. A number even the Pirates would be proud of.

The Cubs have 97 errors already this year compared to the 08 team that had 99 and the 09 team that had 105. We've already had 24 errors at 3B, 21 at SS and 13 at 2B. Impressive.

Maybe that is a flawed statistic. Maybe we should create a statistic that verifies the statistical merits of certain statistics.

Please stop talking about Aramis like that.

If it were my team I would certainly put my priority on getting a 1B in the offseason above making Colvin a 1B. All of this depends on several factors, with the most important being the payroll. If the Cubs have the flexibility, Dunn will be the priority this offseason. With all of his talk about not rebuilding, I don't think Hendry is willing to wait for Gonzalez. Colvin would be very valuable to the team as a 4th OF/backup 1B in 2011. He's cheap, can hit the ball out of the park, and has some experience. That's better than going out and signing a Tracy, Millar, Nady, Baker type player. This gives the team an opportunity to see both Colvin and Fukudome play everyday, assuming Colvin gets many chances at 1B through the end fo the season. It would be spectacular if the Cubs found a way to get anything for Nady at this point, and the Cubs got the opportunity to see Fukudome and Colvin perform every day in the lineup. I think this is also a sign of the thin market for Fukudome. I'm making alot of assumptions there, most notably, that the Cubs are as smart as I am. I have my doubts.

Ankiel started making the transition from pitcher to hitter at a much younger age. That's the only thing that may scare me away. It would be at least a year or two until he could see the AB's in the minors to be ready for the bigs. However, he seems to be a pretty gifted hitter already, and the transition may not be terribly long. Considering how cheap he is currently, and how bad he has been at pitching, that is the next logical step for him. A team would be silly not to try. I hope the Cubs consider it an option as our organization seems to be pretty thin on hitting. It's certainly a long shot, but I wouldn't be against trying to convert him to a 1B.

Needing just 1 win to close out their hated rival Red Sox, Captain Jetes puts up a 211/250/263 line as Boston comes up clutch while Jeter chokes away a 3-0 lead. What a choker. Only the Yankees.

Derek Jeter has pretty much been Captain Consistent in just about every situation. I still think he is the most overpaid player to ever put on a MLB jersey.

I still think this would have been a fun game. Babe Ruth

My guess is that Lee hits about .500, hits 3 homeruns and drives in 6 or 7 runs in the upcoming series against the Cubs.

My lord, did Kaplan not get enough credit for doing chores around the house when he was 5 or something? He is an attention and glory hog the likes of which haven't been seen in the media. I believe the phrase you are looking for is "attention whore".

The biggest positive to moving him to first would be that it might save his legs a bit if he didn't have to roam around the outfield and, thus, he'd be healthier and more productive longer. It also opens a spot in one of the deeper parts of the minors (OF) while filling long term a significant weakness (1B). That's a good point on the defensive issues, however. Jesus. Soriano has a hard enough time with balls that have to travel 200 feet to get to him. Can you imagine him having to field balls that only travel 95 feet? While 1B may be the easiest position to play in baseball, Soriano is going to be a disaster anywhere he plays. Ironically, his best defensive tool is his arm and quick release, and he can't use either at 1B. Unlike Karen Sypher, balls flying at him is not a strength.

The Cubs would like to trade Alfonso Soriano, I have learned exclusively.