lumafia

I see Rick Ankiel. I see myself in this thread. Great objective analysis. It would make Al Yellon weep. Well, if you want to know why I see similarities in Colvin and Francouer, I could provide those. Colvin through 75 games this year and 180 PA has posted a 121 OPS+. Not bad at all. Francouer in his first 70 games albeit 274 PA, had a 124 OPS+. Francouer's line was 300/336/549/884 (ba/obp/slg/ops) with an 11/58 bb/k ratio. Colvin's current line 271/313/554/867 with 11/49 bb/k ratio is similar to me. A key difference was that Francoeur put up those numbers at age 21, while Colvin is 24. Also, Francouer maintained that line over a greater number of plate appearances. On the other hand, when we look at what Francouer did over the next few seasons, we see that he was still able to provide some homeruns, but eventually his inability to consistently make contact while not walking provided increasing diminishing returns on his value. I think that unless Colvin makes adjustments that I'm not sure we have any reasonable evidence to think he can make, he's going to have more liabilities than value in the very near future. Just as he appears a bright spot on the horizon, so did Francoer to Brave fans in 2005, but we shouldn't ignore the fact that striking out a ton while walking little is usually an omen of bad things to come. Frenchy is a good comparison. I thought of the Ankiel one also. Both are decent. And yes, it looks like Colvin will be capable of a similar career as Francoeur. Because of his lack of ability to take a walk and propensity to K, he'll likely have some seasons of mid .800s OPS's if he is lucky that year and some seasons where he can't break .700. I stil don't think that means he's likely to do anything good or bad. He's most likely to be unpredictable. His numbers also compare favorably to Prince Fielder's numbers in his 1st 183 ab's. Prince Fielder through 183 ab's: .257 BA, .305 OBP, .437 SLG, .742 OPS 12 doubles, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 14 BB, 45 SO, 3.73 Pitches per Plate Appearance Tyler Colvin through 183 ab's: .262 BA, .307 OBP, .519 SLG, .826 OPS 9 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 34 RBI, 13 BB, 54 SO, 3.71 Pitches per Plate Appearance

Poor Jim. He is too much of a purist. During his tenure he has been completely obsessed with lefties (at the plate and on the mound), lead-off hitters and speed. Nobody cares about those things anymore. Even when he attempted to embrace the dark-side by signing the AL's leader in OPS, he was later disappointed to discover that it was Milton Bradley. Not to mention the fact that he gave a position player (who wasn't among the top 40 active players in OPS) the 5th largest baseball contract in history. I think Hendry's heart is in the right place, but he isn't qualified to run this team. I have been waiting for an owner who is a Cubs fan, so there is some emotional equity in decisions that are made. Ricketts is supposed to be that guy, but if Jim isn't fired, I will know for sure that he sees this as more of a business and we can expect another decade of mediocrity and disappointment.

Regardless, he's still the Schlitt.

Its "Losing, Its a Way of Life" The 2011 Cubs campain will be "Better Than a Poke in the Eye"

are you watching now? Yeah....because now they have 2 whole hits.

That was my original intent with the "Soto to 1B" comment. Nothing gets Cub fans fired up quite like the 1B discussion.

Based on the typical Cub logic, they won't. They'll stick him on the bench immediately based on 30 AB's, while Lee, Ramirez and Hill continue to rack up AB's even though none of them have hit for 3 months.

Why would they move Soto to 1B when they already have Colvin? Soto will be backing up Colvin, who will be backing up Soriano, who will be backing up Big Z at 1B next year.

Wow. Why do you guys hate Kentucky so much?

Maybe the club has decided to get Hill more AB's because the intention is to allow Soto to move to 1B next year prior to signing the Hefty Lefty in 2012. 8-[

The offensive (pun intended) woes of this team go back further than that. If you take out the 2 games where they scored 12 & 8 runs in June, the Cubs have averaged 2.8 runs per game in the last 20 games!!

He is playing, all the time. It's not like this is some 27 year old who has run out of options. There's plenty of time to figure out Colvin. There should be no rush to determine right now or this offseason his exact role going forward. I agree. I didn't read every post, but I didn't see anything about Colvin having his exact role with the future of the Chicago Cubs determined in the next 2-3 months. I'm making some assumptions (Lee not being re-signed and the Cubs holding out for a shot at Fielder or Gonzalez) and trying to consider the options based on those assumptions. IF the Cubs don't want to re-sign Lee, or IF the Cubs want to wait for the 2011 FA class and Lee WON'T sign a 1-year deal, then, based on current production from 1B, it may be time to review other options for the short-term future. I don't think Colvin's future is at 1B, but I wouldn't simply dismiss it based on the fact that he plays OF now and has no experience at 1B.

And Soriano to 1B is a much better option than Colvin to 1B. I wouldn't disagree that he has more experience in the IF than Colvin, or that he would be a better 1st option. Defensively, I would rather have Colvin as the everyday LF than Sori. However, I would also point out that Soriano has had a much better career throwing a baseball than he has had catching it. He has never looked very comfortable when the ball is coming toward him.

The Phillies can live with Howard's defense because of his offensive production. I understand, which is why I mentioned that Colvin is no Howard. However, what do the Cubs have to lose. If anything else they can figure out if he is ABLE to play first (which shouldn't be too difficult), and if he isn't, what have you lost? The Cubs stand to lose nothing by trying, and stand to gain alot if Colvin can continue to contribute while playing 1B. It's highly unlikely that the Cubs would try something like that, but it would seem logical to try to find a alternative solution for 1B next year when there are very few candidates within our organization or through free agency. Especially if the intent is to find a stud 1B through free agency after 2011 (Fielder, Gonzalez). The Cubs have absolutely no idea if Colvin can even be a 4th OF; how about they allow his role as an OF become more clear before deciding to hand him the reigns at 1B? Hell, to tie it in to what was also brought up, it would make much more sense to move Soriano to 1st and let Colvin play LF. I agree with the fact that the Cubs should consider, if anyone, Soriano for 1st as an alternative within our organization outside of free agency. I'm not saying that shoving Colvin over to 1B with no prior experience is the best idea, though it's been done to productive rookie OF's before (Brad Wilkerson for example). However, Lee is giving us nothing at the plate. He won't sign a 1-year deal with us, and if the organization wants a franchise 1B (and I'm not saying they do), they are going to have to start looking for alternatives. The list of productive players who are willing to accept a low cost, 1-year deal to play 1B for the Cubs in 2011 is a short one. It would be dumb not to review options within the organization during a regular season.

The Phillies can live with Howard's defense because of his offensive production. I understand, which is why I mentioned that Colvin is no Howard. However, what do the Cubs have to lose. If anything else they can figure out if he is ABLE to play first (which shouldn't be too difficult), and if he isn't, what have you lost? The Cubs stand to lose nothing by trying, and stand to gain alot if Colvin can continue to contribute while playing 1B. It's highly unlikely that the Cubs would try something like that, but it would seem logical to try to find a alternative solution for 1B next year when there are very few candidates within our organization or through free agency. Especially if the intent is to find a stud 1B through free agency after 2011 (Fielder, Gonzalez).

I wouldn't have a problem sticking Colvin at 1st base. Who cares? While Colvin is no Ryan Howard, the Phillies won a World Series with Howard leading all 1B with 14 errors in 2008. 1B is the easiest position to play in baseball. A decent high school short stop would be fine at 1B in the majors.

The players that need to be moved the most are immovable based on their contract, not the NTC. The only player that we could trade that any other team would want right now is Ted Lilly. All the other guys with ridiculous contracts are performing horribly. If you were to try to come up with a worst-case scenario for a major league team, the 2010 Cubs would be it. Not that I would expect them to make him available, but you don't think other teams would be interested in Dempster? Nope. The team that picks Dempster up are on the hook through 2012 for $14 mil each year. The only reason other teams would want Lilly is because he is a FA and they don't have to pay him beyond this year.

The players that need to be moved the most are immovable based on their contract, not the NTC. The only player that we could trade that any other team would want right now is Ted Lilly. All the other guys with ridiculous contracts are performing horribly. If you were to try to come up with a worst-case scenario for a major league team, the 2010 Cubs would be it.

This inning, Lee and Ramirez try to stay above the magical .400 batting average.........combined.

Soto has roughly 59 PA and a 950 OPS in June, Hill is at 35 and 688. RIght, and Im pretty sure the majority of Soto's PA have come against all the leftys we have faced this month. Hill has had the majority of PA vs RH pitchers that we have faced this month. I think you're probably right. Unfortunately Lou seems to be looking at incorrect stats again. I know they've mentioned the fact that Hill has a better BA against right-handers as a reason he is starting a decent amount. I also wonder if the fact that Hill's BA is over 300 points higher than Soto with RISP is factoring into it. That seems like something Lou would probably look at with all his team's struggles in that department this year. I just wish he would look at the bigger picture and not things with small sample sizes that are going to change eventually. I just looked it up, and Geo has started 4 games the entire month vs RH pitching. I posted this in the game thread, but I'm going to post it here as well. The Cubs have a .391 winning % when Hill starts (23 games). They also only score 3.6 runs per game in those starts.

So....Koyie Hill started again today? Is Soto hurt, or dead? Just so everybody knows (except for Lou, because he obviously doesn't know), the Cubs average 3.6 runs per game when Koyie Hill starts, and their winning % in those games is only .391. Didn't the Cubs just hire a stats guy to look into this stuff?

What do I predict the 2011 Cubs will look like? http://epell.net/Portals/0/Gallery/Album/9/9-10%20Cubs.jpg

I got to see the Iowa team in all 3 games here in Nashville around the middle of last month. The Schlitt appeared in 2 of those games, and he looked great. He made one bad pitch in his 2 appearances, and it got hit about 400 feet. I think he gave up a few hits, but other than the homerun, none of them were hit hard. One was an infield single, and a couple of bloops if memory serves. They let him pitch the 8th and 9th in the first game, and he pitched the 9th 2 days later. He was throwing absolute cheddar the whole time, and I made the comment to my wife that the Cubs would call him up at some point to give him a shot because of his fastball. Even the guys who got hits looked silly, other than the homerun of course. He hit 99 on the stadium gun 3 or 4 times. He is far less than a polished prospect, but my guess that he could be used in spot situations against slow bats. At this point, why not call everybody up and see what they can do?

I have to say, I have laughed out loud at some of the performances by this team this year. "Funny Bad" may be a more appropriate term than "Fun Bad". This team is a prison, on planet [expletive], in the galaxy of this sucks camel [explitive]!

After his move to the bullpen, I don't think I'd be surprised with anything the Cubs tried to do with him. So, Steve Stone is saying that Zambrano sucks as a pitcher and has no more value (which is close to being accurate), so you might as well get the most out of him by letting him try to hit on a team that can't drive in a run to save their collective lives? I'm not sure I have a problem with that. I think Steve is trying to take a little jab at the organization, which it deserves. come on, there are tons of problems with that. ONE there's no reason to write zambrano off as finished as a pitcher. his era in games that aren't the first game of the season this year is 4.49. he'd be right in line to have a fairly typical (if slightly down) carlos zambrano-type year if we'd just be smart enough to let him pitch every fifth day the rest of the way. TWO turning pitchers into position players is going to make our team hit less, not more. THREE you don't "get the most out of him" by forcing him to make bizarre and drastic position changes after he's been in the league ten years. that's how you guarantee you never get anything worthwhile out of him again. FOUR shut up Ha. I love #4 by the way. For the record, I don't think he's a good hitter, as far as hitters go. I don't have a problem with what Steve Stone said, not with putting Z at first. Niether myself, or Steve Stone, thinks Big Z could really contribute anything at 1st base. I think he is just making fun of the organization. Steve Stone is a deeply sarcastic man who loves to poke fun at the Cubs. We all know this. That being said, the only real value Zambrano has to the future of this organization (through future production or possibly trade value) is as a starter. Putting him in the bullpen at this point is more of a waste of time than just releasing him. If you think he is a pain in the @ss, which he is when we are losing, why not allow him to play himself into a potential trade with a contender, or live up to SOME of his contract? He started to show some improvement recently on the mound prior to his little "come-apart". You can't have any silver lining in this situation without having Big Z in the rotation. Tell me something Jim Hendry, what is the going rate for an overpaid, semi-productive, emotionally unstable starting pitcher who throws for one inning every 2 or 3 days? That's right, a little less than an overpaid, semi-productive, emotionally unstable starting pitcher who gives you 6 or 7 innings every 5 days.