Little Slide Rooter
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-15-11
Little Slide Rooter replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
A combined 46 runs scored by our farm today and 4-0. Not too shabby. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-15-11
Little Slide Rooter replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Hopefully its an is what it is type of thing and they wanted to ease him back in. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-14-11
Little Slide Rooter replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
All around bad day on the farm highlighted by Cam Greathouse walking 7 in 3.2 innings. -
I just don't see the urgency to go for it this year. Obviously we want to win the World Series and if we have a legit shot I say take it. However, I think our chances of winning will be better over the next couple of years than they are now (even without Pujols/Prince), so if we don't get a good price on Beltran I don't think the need is there to shell out for him. I think most of us are saying that Beltran should be a possibility only if we are contending and don't have to overpay. It might be good experience for our young players to get playoff experience even if winning the WS isn't going to happen this year. This, but the catch 22 is that Beltran, or someone like him could be the difference between contending this year or not, so if we were to do it, wed want to do it soon if the Mets are willing to raise the white flag soon, so the Cards and Reds don't leave us in their dust. If July rolls around and were 7-8 games back, its not a logical move.
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Involving a third team is what I was getting at in a roundabout way. I think the Mets would be more interested in Colvin if they want an ML OF, so Byrd or Kosuke would have to go elsewhere. We're probably getting less for them than we'd give for Beltran, though, so we'd have to factor that in to decide if the trade was worth it. On a side note, I don't think the next few years are as bleak for the Cubs as you seem to. I actually think they'll get better from here. First and third are a couple of big question marks going forward, but if Pujols and Fielder are both on the market, there's no reason why the Cubs shouldn't get one of the two - and they really should be able to get Pujols. You then have guys like Cashner, Castro, BJax and McNutt making the majors/getting better and may even get solid contributions from guys like Barney, Vitters, JJax, Whitenack and the slew of young relievers. If we stick to the apparent plan, we're about to get quite a bit younger over the next couple of years and have a bunch of quality minor leaguers on the way. We need a Pujols/Fielder type, but we have the resources to do it. I don't think that the future would be bleak if we got Pujols or Fielder, but that is an if. Maybe not a huge if, but an if none the less. If we get one of those guys, we have the pieces to build around them, even if we move a few for Beltran.
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an expiring contract? this isn't the nba. Wouldn't that potentially have some appeal to a team in serious financial trouble? Thank you. The mets are so bad off right now that they need to start shipping guys out quickly. I'm pretty sure they are 600 million in the hole and no one is going to their games. But yeah the mets would take some back lash for trading wright so they would at least need to feign competitiveness by picking up a deteriorating veteran who they arent on the hook for past this year. all the while picking up pitchers which is the biggest reason why they have sucked for the last 8 years. If the Mets traded Wright for pitching, they'd still need to get somebody that could play 3rd the rest of the season. If the Cubs were to add money to the deal there would be little reason for the Mets not to take Ramirez back. Of course trading for Wright probably precludes the fantasy-land, never going to happen despite a 30 page NSBB thread, FA signing of Pujols or the fat guy from the Brewers. While Im very skeptical that Pujols would leave the Cardinals, I have no reason to believe that The Cubs wouldnt be a perfect fit for Fielder. What makes you think its so far fetched?
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Trading Byrd is probably the route to get the biggest upgrade, but I really don't think the Mets will want either Byrd or Kosuke. With their financial troubles, adding even a reduced contract may not be an option. My bet is if they want an ML ready OF, it'd be Colvin. Even if they're not enamored by him, he's cheaper with more upside going forward than Byrd or Kosuke. Looking ahead, however, trading Byrd this season means we're guaranteed to see Colvin in RF next season. I don't see any way Kosuke comes back next year and with Byrd gone we'd have to start Colvin and hope BJax is ready to start the year. If we keep Byrd, Quade may decide to go with Jackson and let Colvin remain as the 4th OF. We'd be a better team overall next season in the latter scenario, but worse this year. I think that we could either get a 3rd team involved for Marlon Byrd. If theres a team out there in need of an outfielder with a decent bat, who doesnt want to give up the cash or prospects it would take to land Beltran, it would work. The Cubs would get Beltran and a prospect or 2 from whoever we send Byrd to, Mets would get prospects and cash, and Team X would get Byrd and maybe some cash. Either that or we could just flip Byrd in a seperate transaction. With Byrds production and price with another year on the contract, he should be attractive to someone, even if we end up still picking up a few mil on him as well. Ricketts did say that they have the money if the right player comes around and were in the right positon when the time comes, and al the money comes off the books after this season anyway. As Ive said all along, its a high risk high reward proposition, but after the past few years or Cubs baseball, its one Id be willing to make.
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One thing you have to keep in mind with acquiring Beltran is that we're losing value in the deal as well. If we add Beltran (1.3 WAR so far this year) we have to bench or trade Kosuke (1.0 WAR so far) or Byrd (0.4 WAR so far). It's still early in the year, but Kosuke has been nearly as valuable as Beltran to this point, primarily because Beltran's been bad defensively and Kosuke's been good. If you deal Kosuke, you have to look at the difference in their production at the time of the trade and determine if the difference in production is worth probably a net negative in prospects. There are questions with both players - can Kosuke avoid his month-long slumps and can Beltran stay healthy - and I think it'd be prudent to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger on the deals so you get as much information as possible on the two. If you deal Byrd, you have to ask whether Beltran can still play center and stay healthy. He hasn't logged an inning there this year (he's been only a RF) and has been pretty awful defensively in right. Byrd's been bad defensively as well, but he's younger and has much less of an injury history than Beltran and is almost certainly the better bet to rebound. You could always move Kosuke to center if you trade Byrd, but you're losing a ton of Kosuke's value doing that. Beltran's been quite a bit more valuable than Byrd so far, making this the more preferable scenario, but Byrd has recent history on his side. Could dealing for Beltran be a good idea? Sure, but I'd wait until much closer to the deadline before advocating or criticizing it definitively. I didn't even realize that he was playing right this year. If he could move to center, or if Fukudome could play center, I think the offensive upgrade from Byrd to Beltran would more than make up for any defensive dropoff (I'm not sure how good Byrd is defensively). I also wouldn't consider trading Fukudome in a deal for Beltran. I think that's more of a lateral move/slight upgrade. I'd only consider Byrd, who is only six months younger than Beltran. Are you talking offensively when it comes to Byrd being a better bet to rebound? Because his OPS coming into today was .721 and that's with career-high in BABIP (.370) and LD% (28%). If anything, I'd say Byrd is likely to get worse as the season goes on. Beltran's not hitting the ball as hard (15% LD%) but his BABIP is only .289 so his .977 OPS isn't boosted based on good luck. And I was definitely talking about a trade later in the year, not now. It's way too early to consider the Cubs contenders the way things are going. I mean, if Cashner and Wells have setbacks and Doug Davis stinks, then we're stuck with Coleman and Davis/someone else in the 4 and 5 spots. Plus, even though Dempster's been good the last three games, it's entirely possible that this stretch is the fluke rather than the first couple starts. Again, its a risk. I would want to give up to much for him in terms of prospects. While Fukudome has been very good, what we really need is 1 elite hitter which a healthy Beltran is. Id be willing to pick up whats left of the contract, plus 2-3 fringy prospects, as someone said of the Flaherty, Raley, LaMahieu ilk, or if they prefer major league ready guys, Id give them guys like DeWitt and Coleman. Obviously, Brett Jackson and Trey McNut are off limits. I know a lot of people disagree, but assuming that the rest of our rotation returns and is productive, I feel strongly that 1 elite hitter would make all the diference in the world for this team.
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Again, it all depends what pieces were talking about, and what you consider important. Lets look at the Harden package, and see what would be close to it: Sean Gallagher: major league ready-ish starter, potential, but didnt quite reach it yet: Casey Coleman or Jay Jackson? Matt Murton: young major league ready player. Has had some past big leage successCould contribute in the future: Blake DeWitt Eric Patterson: fringe prospect. wasnt quite major league ready, althoug wed brought him up out of necessity: any number of guys. lets say, Ryan Flaherty. Josh Donaldson: young, lower level prospect. decent bat Again, could be any number of guys. Lets just say, oh, Matt Cerda or Pierre LaPage. Would you trade Coleman/Jackson, DeWitt, Flaherty, and Cerda/LaPage for Beltran and maybe a lesser player? I would. Again, it depends if the Mets would. Of course they wouldn't. Most the players you listed as potential trade bait aren't comparable with what was given up for Harden. Plus the Cubs were taking a chance because they'd get him for at least a season and a half and he was a much younger player. Why not? Jackson is an early 20's starter, one of our top prospects as Gallagher was. Jax was the 98th overall prospect pre 2010, Gallagher was number 82 pre 2008. DeWitt has arguebaly had more big league sucess than Murton, plus plays a more premium position at 2B. Flaherty and Patterson are very comperable. We might just need to offer a more tempting low level prospect.
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Again, it all depends what pieces were talking about, and what you consider important. Lets look at the Harden package, and see what would be close to it: Sean Gallagher: major league ready-ish starter, potential, but didnt quite reach it yet: Casey Coleman or Jay Jackson? Matt Murton: young major league ready player. Has had some past big leage successCould contribute in the future: Blake DeWitt Eric Patterson: fringe prospect. wasnt quite major league ready, althoug wed brought him up out of necessity: any number of guys. lets say, Ryan Flaherty. Josh Donaldson: young, lower level prospect. decent bat Again, could be any number of guys. Lets just say, oh, Matt Cerda or Pierre LaPage. Would you trade Coleman/Jackson, DeWitt, Flaherty, and Cerda/LaPage for Beltran and maybe a lesser player? I would. Again, it depends if the Mets would.
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The difference of opinion is simple: he feels the Cubs have a shot at competing this year if they get a significant upgrade at one position. You don't. Hence the varying perspectives. If I felt the Cubs were one piece away AND I thought Beltran would stay healthy all year, I'd probably feel the same way. However, until I see some power from ARam, I don't think we're only missing one piece. It seems that the main variance is that I think that our core as a whole is quite good, the one missing piece is a 3 hitter, being Beltran. I think Aramis will start hitting for power again, and even if he doesnt, we have Soriano, Pena, Soto and to a lesser extent, Byrd to do that. I dont see the holes that alot of people do, aside from the 3 hitter and 4-5 starters. The only real problem I see with it it too many moving pieces, meaning that wed have to do something with Byrd or Fukudome. They're only one or two pieces away if those pieces are Pujols and Halladay. The Cubs have a lot if ifs. If Aramis can hit for power. If Soriano can get enough hot streaks. if Pena can get back to pre 2010. If Castro and Barney can keep hitting. If Soto can pull it together when he gets back. If we had a legit 3 hitter.
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The difference of opinion is simple: he feels the Cubs have a shot at competing this year if they get a significant upgrade at one position. You don't. Hence the varying perspectives. If I felt the Cubs were one piece away AND I thought Beltran would stay healthy all year, I'd probably feel the same way. However, until I see some power from ARam, I don't think we're only missing one piece. It still doesn't make any sense. I'm certainly not opposed to making a go at competing in a weak division this season (though I agree it would take more than one player unless Aramis AND Soto rebound), but I can't figure out why he would want to go after Beltran of all people instead of attempting something Garza-esque where you shell out for a player that can help now and in the future. I dont want to part with a Garza-esque prospect package. I would only really want to go after Beltran if it were a more reasonable price. Of course if King Felix were to become available, Id be willing to part with alot more.
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The difference of opinion is simple: he feels the Cubs have a shot at competing this year if they get a significant upgrade at one position. You don't. Hence the varying perspectives. If I felt the Cubs were one piece away AND I thought Beltran would stay healthy all year, I'd probably feel the same way. However, until I see some power from ARam, I don't think we're only missing one piece. It seems that the main variance is that I think that our core as a whole is quite good, the one missing piece is a 3 hitter, being Beltran. I think Aramis will start hitting for power again, and even if he doesnt, we have Soriano, Pena, Soto and to a lesser extent, Byrd to do that. I dont see the holes that alot of people do, aside from the 3 hitter and 4-5 starters. The only real problem I see with it it too many moving pieces, meaning that wed have to do something with Byrd or Fukudome.
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All Im trying to say is -Beltran could help us win now. Our lineup as a whole would be very good with a guy like that plugged into the 3 hole. -Without a big FA signing in the offseason, we could be looking at an ugly few years, so if their is an opportunity to win now, Id take it. -Most of our prospects are guys who I dont think wed ever look back on on really miss, with the possible exceptions of Brett Jackson or McNutt, who I wouldnt trade. A lot of guys who could be future everyday players, but not stars.

