He's 22 years old. If he gets hit by a truck tomorrow and never plays again he'll be financially secure for the rest of his life. He signed this with essentially no ML experience, so there's the possibility that he busts as well. It's happened before. That's the trade off. He could possibly earn double that (I'd say it would be something like $5M, $10M, $15M tops but who knows), or he could take complete financial security right now. I know what I'd do. Going from $3M to $17M is a much bigger deal than going from $17M to $30M (OK, whatever his take-home actually is from these numbers). The utility of the second $13M isn't worth the risk. Also, don't forget that these pro athletes, their agents, and the stupid owners don't know the meaning of a contract anyhow. A few years into the contract, he will demand more money, an extension, or a trade and make all the money he was going to get without this contract. Pro athletes want the security of a long-term contract and then complain about the money.