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I'm really not sure what Silva is worth. IMO, teams don't usually like to take risky players who have multiple years left on their contracts in a trade. At the same time, the Cubs shouldn't pay much of Silva's contract at the deadline. There's no reason for it. The Cubs are going to have to pay Silva 8 million between 2011 and 2012 (6 million for 2011 plus 2 million buyout in 2012). He's becoming likely to post an ERA under 4 for 2010. The Cubs will very likely be able to unload his contract in the offseason and pay no more than 2 million. And if he continues to pitch close to as well as he has for the rest of the year the Cubs could potentially do even better.

I agree with this somewhat. Most people though hadn't really seen Colvin before this year. He hit 16 home runs in under 500 AB's in 07. He hit only 14 in over 500 AB's in 08 but it was uncertain how much of that was slowed by the problems that led to the TJS. He then only hit 1 home run in Daytona in 114 AB's but 13 in Tennessee in just over 300 AB's. And then of course he added all that muscle over the offseason. The power potential was always the thing that was going to potentially save Colvin. The numbers for Tenessee were a welcome sight but it was uncertain what that meant with all the other confusion in his numbers. So to see him hit a large number of home runs is very encouraging. To see him hit them the way he has (the fact that so few of them have been cheap) is perhaps more encouraging. Before the season based on the numbers, Colvin was probably a 10-20 home run player in the majors. Now based on both the eye test and the numbers he's put up, he's probably more of a 15-30 home run guy. Right now he's on pace for 44 over a 600 AB season which will come down sharply when his HR/FB ratio balances out. With so many more factors than normal influencing the data, evaluating Colvin is still a work in progress. We know the basics of his game, but the particulars have a lot more variability than a normal player. But I would definitely agree that in general his strengths and weaknesses have not changed.

Hilarious, Castro has been mediocre (710 OPS and 3rd most errors in the NL) and if anything is the guy on the cubs who needs to go back to minors and work on things. His fielding needs work and his bat has been frankly bad since his kosuke-like debut. But let's send down the guy who currently has the highest OPS on the team. Brilliant I'd rather he'd have stayed in the minors, too. And again, I haven't advocated sending Colvin back to the minors this year; I'm talking about having him down there starting full time working on the flaws in his offense next season. Castro, quite frankly, is more talented than Colvin and is much more likely to be able to develop at the ML level. Colvin's not going to be able to work on his strikeout rate well at the minor league level. It was already acceptable in the minor leagues. He needs to see major league pitching if he's going to be able to make progress on that now (both to catch up to the hard fastball and the sharp breaking balls that he struggles with at times. He's not going to see many of either of those pitches in AAA). Colvin definitely has some worrying numbers. The walk rate needs to not slide any further or will be a major concern. The strikeout rate is too high (although it has been slowly sliding down). His BABIP doesn't worry me anymore. It was ridiculously unsustainable but it's fallen so much. At .319 now, that's the type of BABIP Colvin can maintain because he usually makes good contact with the ball when he actually does make contact. And the HR/FB number is definitely unsustainable. Most of Colvin's HR's leave the park so fast though that even if he doesn't get quite as strong of contact on them in the future they'll likely just increase his singles or doubles rate. Colvin's probably still a .775-.825 OPS player who can play all 3 OF positions. If he can lower his strikeout rate to 20-22% he could be a little more than that. He's likely always going to be a mistake hitter. He's the type of player you typically want to stay away from in free agency because his numbers will bounce around from year to year but he would likely be just fine as a cheap starter and he isn't so good that keeping him as a 4th OF isn't a horrible decision either. A smaller market team would likely find more value for Colvin but he'll probably be fine with whatever role the Cubs decide to put him in.

I've wondered about that myself and I'm not sure if that statement is true. Cubs overall: .253/.319/.392 (13th BA, 13th OBP, 13th SLG, 13 OPS, 14th runs scored) Cubs without Lee and Ramirez at all: .263/.326/.404 (4th BA, 10th OBP, tied 8th SLG, 10th OPS) If you take Lee and Ramirez's 3 year averages and apply them to this year (giving them only the number of at-bats they've had this year): Cubs with regular Lee and Ramirez .271/.336/.426 (2nd BA, 4th OBP, 3rd SLG, 3rd OPS) Somebody can check my calculations, but I'm pretty sure they're close. Lee and Ramirez are the difference between this team being really good and really bad this year.

And no, it doesn't have the opportunity to happen all the time in soccer. Can you give *one* other example of a flagrant handball by the last defender stopping a goal? Ghana-Australia was a similar situation to today. The defender stopped it right on the goal line. He was red carded for handball and Gyan converted the penalty kick.

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012. Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point. 2013 is a long time from now. A long time. He meant by 2012. That's only a year and a half of baseball away. After 2012 the Z contract also is off the books. Although he did miss that the Cubs will also have Byrd and likely Dempster in 2012 but the Cubs will almost certainly want both of them. Last year at this time it was much worse than it is now. At that time, it was 18 months until some big contracts went away (Lee, Aramis, and Lilly) and those were 3 of the cornerstones of the team. Now the Cubs have gone a year without adding any big contracts and will have a whole lot of money coming off both this year and next year. They have a whole lot of flexibility. They could win big by next year if they wanted to but it wouldn't be the smartest move. With smart moves they'll be ok next year and strong by 2012. I actually just didn't word my post well. You did a much better job. That said, five of the big contracts we have through 2012 (Soriano, Z, Dempster and Byrd) have averaged a combined 10.4 WAR over the past three seasons. Their collective WAR this year is 7.6. They've been valuable and could still be in 2011 and 2012. Shark is due $6.5 in 2012, however. Samardzija's contract is a club option for that year. So unless he comes up and blows everybody away as a starter next year it won't be picked up.

Long term? Almost all the big contracts are set to expire by 2012 at the latest. Soriano and Z are the only contracts longer than that. There should be plenty of cap room after next season and certainly after 2012. Short term, you're right. We probably won't be very good this year or next at this point. 2013 is a long time from now. A long time. He meant by 2012. That's only a year and a half of baseball away. After 2012 the Z contract also is off the books. Although he did miss that the Cubs will also have Byrd and likely Dempster in 2012 but the Cubs will almost certainly want both of them. Last year at this time it was much worse than it is now. At that time, it was 18 months until some big contracts went away (Lee, Aramis, and Lilly) and those were 3 of the cornerstones of the team. Now the Cubs have gone a year without adding any big contracts and will have a whole lot of money coming off both this year and next year. They have a whole lot of flexibility. They could win big by next year if they wanted to but it wouldn't be the smartest move. With smart moves they'll be ok next year and strong by 2012.

Neither. He hasn't thrown more than 47 pitches in a month and he's thrown 77 so far today.

Once upon a time, sure. Now, not so much. Last year one pitcher got a multiyear contract @ $12M per year (John Lackey). The pitching quality last year on the market was not good either. Obviously salaries have been depressed somewhat but it was also an off year more like 2007 than 2006 or 2008 (where only Carlos Silva got a multi-year deal). Randy Wolf was the second best pitcher on the market last year and got 3 years 29.75 million. He's inferior to Lilly and was only just over a year younger when he signed his deal. That should be the starting point for Lilly's contract and he could definitely get a decent bit more than that.

Soto has roughly 59 PA and a 950 OPS in June, Hill is at 35 and 688. RIght, and Im pretty sure the majority of Soto's PA have come against all the leftys we have faced this month. Hill has had the majority of PA vs RH pitchers that we have faced this month. I think you're probably right. Unfortunately Lou seems to be looking at incorrect stats again. I know they've mentioned the fact that Hill has a better BA against right-handers as a reason he is starting a decent amount. I also wonder if the fact that Hill's BA is over 300 points higher than Soto with RISP is factoring into it. That seems like something Lou would probably look at with all his team's struggles in that department this year. I just wish he would look at the bigger picture and not things with small sample sizes that are going to change eventually.

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad. If they put that Lilly money towards a difference making bat, fine by me. But if not, I think you have to seriously consider bringing him back. It's not like this is some stud pitching staff that can just afford to let guys get away and still rule the NL. It's basically a middle of the road staff, and this year we had the same argument about all the guys who should be able to fill roles. This rotation has not performed like a middle of the road staff. Their better than average ERA is their worst part. They have been excellent in just about every category. They strike out lots of people, they walk very few, they don't allow much of a batting average (which of course makes their OBP and OPS allowed very good). They've allowed an exactly average number of home runs. And those peripherals aren't really because of Lilly as his peripherals have been poor compared to everyone else on the staff.

Fair enough. We have a ton of young and/or mediocre options for the rotation next year. We have so many squeaky wheels on this team...Lilly's money probably should be spent elsewhere. Unless one of Cashner, Diamond, and Jackson steps up and performs at a very high level, our rotation next year could be really bad. It could be, but it isn't very likely to be. The 4 guys you mentioned are all questionable, but they also are all more likely to be above average than below (Silva's the most questionable one, but the changes to his pitching style almost definitely will have positive effects even if he won't absolutely dominate against left-handed hitters like he has so far this year). It is likely that 1 and maybe 2 of them will have a bad year, but the 4 of them together combined with a good bet to be well above average in Dempster and you have an above average rotation. It would take some bad luck for them to be below average. I'm definitely fine with offering Lilly arbitration though if the Cubs don't trade him. They can pocket the draft picks and it's not a problem if he somehow decides to come back. Sooner or later though the Cubs will have to open some rotation spots for all these pitchers. Silva's a great choice for that as the remaining contract that the Cubs have to pay is not that big any longer. Lilly could also be an option and it remains to be seen what the Cubs will do with Z. They definitely have too much money tied up in the rotation on the major league level when that's the biggest organizational strength.

Through 10 innings, Tennessee has 9 hits. They have 10 walks, a hit by pitch, 2 guys reached on errors, another guy moved up on an error, and they are 6 out of 7 in stolen bases. And they only have 3 runs thanks to going 2 for 24 so far with RISP and leaving 16 runners on. Jackson is 2 for 5 with a walk. Vitters is 0 for 4 with a walk. Bibens-Dirxx had a strong game: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K Shafer had an up and down debut: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K. He is responsible for a man on 3rd with nobody out in the 10th though so that will likely be his 1st run given up and the loss.

I think the main worry was Saturday if Silva had a short outing. It was a tie game so they had Cashner go 2 innings on Saturday. He was the only bullpen pitcher that pitched on Saturday. Since they hadn't pitched Saturday (and Marmol hadn't pitched since Thursday), Marshall and Marmol were ready to go 1 inning on Sunday to secure the win. Maybe Marshall shouldn't have been used Sunday but I don't think it was a big concern. And that's the only non tied game the Cubs have played in the 3 that Schlitter has been up with the club (not to mention that he pitched last night). After the Cubs only had to use 1 pitcher out of the bullpen Saturday the worry was pretty much over and only using two different pitchers Sunday made everyone available by last night.

Byrd's really the only one that's stunk over most of June, but then you run into the issue of playing Colvin too much in CF. That's a strange statement to make. Byrd was definitely hotter in the first half of June and has slumped the second half. At the same time, he still has actually improved his season numbers in June. And he's definitely been better than the other two outfielders as Soriano has had a very bad month and Kosuke has had a horrific month albeit in limited playing time.

Am I missing something or if Miami wanted to sign all 3 couldn't they sign all of them to max deals as long as Wade is last? If that's true, I see that as much more realistic than one of them taking a pay cut. Edit: Oh, I didn't realize there was a cap hold even if that player is a free agent.

i don't think that's likely. i can see him being a september callup straight from tennessee, depending on their playoff situation. That would really be a waste to start his arb clock ticking as a 4th-6th(or 5th outfielder depending what happens with Kosuke and Nady) on a dead ass team. i'm pretty sure that september call-ups don't start the clock. It does add to his service time. And of course adding him to the 40 man roster would mean that if he doesn't make the club out of Spring Training next year he'll lose his first option. Of course, if Jackson were added that early it look like he would be one of those that would get 4 minor league options.

Hopefully when Hendry goes all those guys go with him, especially the Hawaiian shirted, neanderthal Bush. I'm not sure you have the right guy here. I think you might be thinking of Gary Hughes. I'm not sure I've ever seen Randy Bush in a Hawaiian shirt.

Bruce's blog highlights: Gorzelanny to the rotation, Z to the bullpen when he comes back Organization was not happy to have to send Stevens down They could have a sitdown meeting regarding Z between ownership and baseball management next week. Team meeting today Bush not happy about Z having dinner with Guillen last night There's a lot of good info in the blog: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4279

If we can trade for Adrian Gonzalez, then its worth it. If not, Id just assume as soon save up to sign him in the offseason. In case anyone was wondering, I REALLY want Adrian, more than Ive ever wanted any free agent. He wont be cheap though by any means, probably dwarfing the Mark Teixara contract. What the Cubs have been lacking since the Sosa days is that one guy, a Pujols or Braun if you will.If has a few extra bucks in his pocket, might I suggest trading for Aaron Hill. I know hes having a rough start to the season, but hes one of the best hitting 2B in the league. Yo, Adrian isn't a free agent until after 2011. He knows. He mentioned it in his first post. He meant that if the Cubs couldn't trade for him this offseason that they should just pocket the money until the offseason after 2011. Of course the Cubs wouldn't really need to save money to do that as they have a lot of money potentially coming off after 2011 (Fukudome/Silva/Ramirez/Grabow/Samardzija and even maybe Dempster if he keeps pitching this well through next year).

Equating Ghana players falling down to the disallowed goals by Dempsey and Edu is just stupid. They're not even comparable. The refereeing hardly played a major role in today's outcome. Ricardo Clark's giveaway and our defense did. Especially because at most the US lost 1-2 minutes because of the timewasting techniques. And the ref did let the US do a throw in and continue playing while one of the guys was laying flat on the ground right in the middle of the play and only stopped the game when Ghana was about to gain possession near midfield.

I'm not surprised Schlitter is the guy. Every time they have mentioned pitchers throwing well he's been mentioned. I'm not sure exactly why they like him so much, but they definitely do. I don't believe Z could be DL'd at this point like NCCubfan suggests. MLB would come down hard on that after the suspension. Stevens will probably be recalled shortly after the 10 days is up.

As dew said, that isn't really true. Ramirez and Fukudome both took less money to play with the Cubs. Dempster probably did as well. Z and Lilly were market value. Hendry has outbid at times. Soriano is the perfect example. He was the only one to give the 3rd year that Bradley wanted. He gave more money to DeRosa and Marquis than anybody else would. But that hasn't been often and IIRC Soriano was the only one of those that had a NTC to go along with their bigger money deals. For the person who asked, Samardzija needs to make the major league squad next year. That's also the last year of the deal (the Cubs have club options for 2012 and 2013 but it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which they would pick those up right now).

Where'd you hear that, out of curiosity? Not doubting it, just wondering who the last pitcher was to do it. I'm guessing...Livan Hernandez? BP's pitcher abuse points has a max pitch count statistic that is sortable. Livan was the last pitcher to do it as he threw a 145 pitch game and a 150 pitch game back in 2005. Since then, the max was a tie at 138 between Hernandez in 2006 and Lincecum in 2008.

It's fascinating to see how much these high pitch counts have disappeared even in the last decade. Throughout the 90's, there were at least 7 different pitchers who made it to 140 every year and frequently double digit pitchers did it and the max number for the league was in the 150's and sometimes 160's. In the early 2000's it quickly dropped to 2 pitchers or less throwing over 140 pitches with the max in the 140's. Now Jackson is the first pitcher to crack 140 since the 2005 season.