Even as you pointed out though-two of those Super Bowl games games, the defenses were practically the same-all it took was one garbage time drive in the regular season in one game, and only 2 out of the last 4 best defenses would have won the Super Bowl. Second, even though you posted the QB rankings for the losers, you didn't for the winners. I bet that the best QB won at least one of those games, and possibly a second. Third, the Bears have bad trend lines themselves. Common opponents favors the Colts, the overall AFC record against the NFC, and the fact that AFC playoff teams were a combined 21-3 against the NFC this year (I'm pretty sure of this stat, but it is second-hand). Fourth, the Colts playoff defense is different then the regular season-with Bob Sanders in there, it's like it's a completely different squad taking the field then before. Fifth, the Colts have been breaking trend lines all year. No team has finished the year as poorly as the Colts did and come back to go to the Superbowl. No team has made the Superbowl with as bad of a run defense ranking as the Colts. They took out Baltimore, and improved the dismal record of dome teams outside. Tom Brady was 12-1 as a playoff starter, and 10-0 inside a dome-the Colts broke those two trend lines as well. The Super Bowl won't be nearly as hard of a trend line as trends the Colts have faced previously. With that said, this should be a great game. The Bears have a great squad, and 1 or 2 big plays should make the difference. I'm confident enough in my squad to think they will make the plays, but the Bears are more than capable of making them as well.