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I don't really believe this. Yeah, maybe he could've gotten slightly more elsewhere, but how is $15M per year a huge discount. That price would put him 10th this year in salary, and while he's certainly a very good player, he's not at the elite level of guys like A-Rod, Bonds, Miggy Cabrera or Pujols. There have been reports that Ramirez would get anywhere from 100 million to one report that said the Angels were ready to offer Ramirez 130 million dollars. He's a big discount on last year's market where players like Soriano and Carlos Lee (both probably worse players and both older) got bigger deals.

He is probably declining, but mostly this has just been an off year. Watch out for him though-Jones is heating up in a hurry. He has 5 home runs already in July (including the one tonight) and is 8 for his last 14. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a big second half.

Ward would be a terrible option in RF tomorrow. He cannot hit left-handers, and of course his defense is terrible. I wouldn't mind if Ward got a few starts against RHP in RF, but not against a left-hander.

How could we possibly be winning with Jones, Bowen, and Izturis in the lineup? We're playing the Astros? At bottom, the drama queen act when the lineup came out looks a silly now. having a good game does not replace the fact that we're in dire need of an upgrade at SS, C, and CF. Take that to Hendry, not Lou. Freaking out on a manager every game when he's clearly doing well at the moment is, indeed, uncalled for. touche. However, it doesn't make people comfortable with our chances of winning when the lesser options are all playing on the same day. That's all Well, why? We play in the NL central. Look at the lineup Houston is running out there and how they play. The Reds have been equally horrible. We have all these games left against bad, bad competition, the easiest schedule in the NL the rest of the way. That said, yeah, we do need upgrades if we have real hope of contending for a pennant, not the NL central crown. Playing in a weak division doesn't mean we should be comfortable with significant holes in our lineup. But it is more on JH than Lou. I just wish we would stagger those spot starts. Didn't we? The only two bench players to play today were Izturis and Bowen. The C position doesn't even really have a clear starter right now either, so it's basically just Izturis that is in the lineup today. It's not like the game last week where Lou gave (or tried in the case of Soriano) several of his starters a day off.

I wasn't aware that anything had happened to them. They're working the Cardinals' series in Philadelphia this weekend. What are you getting at ? Because I remember them being in the crew that did the 4 game series in Atlanta 6/7 - 6/10 I think you might have gotten a little confused with all the random umpire bashing that went on at the the time. That series in Atlanta was umpired by the same 4 men (Charlie Reliford, Larry Vanover, Greg Gibson, &Tony Randazzo) that are here for this series. Tschida has his own crew consisting of himself, Tim Tschida, Jeff Nelson, Jim Joyce, Jim Wolf. The CUBS have not seen Tschida's crew yet this year. There were 2 different umpiring crews that did the Atlanta series. The Reliford crew had done the series before the Cubs one in Atlanta, and for some reason stayed around to do the Thursday Cubs-Braves game. The umpiring crew then became the Tschida crew starting with the Friday game. Jim Joyce was behind the plate on Friday, Tschida was on Saturday, and Jim Wolf was the guy who threw out Lilly on Sunday.

I wasn't aware that anything had happened to them. They're working the Cardinals' series in Philadelphia this weekend. What are you getting at ? Because I remember them being in the crew that did the 4 game series in Atlanta 6/7 - 6/10 Yup. Tschida was the home plate umpire on the day that Soriano got beaned, and Wolf was the home plate umpire the next game that Lilly got thrown out.

From my vantage point at the game, I was surprised that Floyd went 1st to 3rd the first time-that was pretty good hustle. The second time, anybody on the Cubs roster could have made it first to third.

Just got back from the game-it was an awesome game to attend! A few points: 1) Z looked absolutely great today. We were on the third base line, and the right handers were just flailing wildly at his pitches. 2) As far as the fly ball thing, we could see the swing and the sound, and then we couldn't really see the ball again from where we were sitting. The only real way to tell is to watch the OF and see their body language. A couple balls sounded good and we stood up, but could quickly tell that they would be caught. 3) It was a nice team effort game. Just about everybody contributed something. Jones's hit to first in the 5th or 6th and Soto's hit in the 8th were probably the two hardest hit balls that were turned into outs. Lee also was definitely safe in both live action and on the replay.

I considered contract and still chose Lugo. It's not particularly close either. So you'd trade Izturis for Lugo right now? I certainly wouldn't. Izturis is horrible yes-but the Cubs can get rid of him in 3 months! Lugo on the other hand has put this up on the last 2 teams he has been on: LAD: 146 AB's, .219/.278/.267 Boston: 299 AB's, .197/.270/.298 While he likely will bounce back somewhat eventually, those are awful numbers over almost a full year's time now. Add to that he'll be 32 in November, and Lugo's best days are almost certainly behind him. Plus, he'll be making 9 million dollars for the next 3 years-so he could easily be a 34 year old making 9 million with a .600 to .650 OPS. His defense and stolen bases help the equation, but it still boils down to this: Do you want to hand the starting SS position for the next 3 seasons to a player who has been below a .600 OPS for the last full calendar year, is almost 32, and will be making 9 million every single year. That's a waste of resources, and would be a much bigger problem than giving a backup infield position to Izturis for the rest of 2007.

Yeah, on CSN, Hendry said that Lou may decide to flip flop Lilly and Z. Zambrano's plane was late from South FL... We'll see how this goes. No! I like Lilly, but I really want to see Z tomorrow. It's the first time I will have been able to see him live. I'd like to see DeRosa at SS as much as the next guy, but it certainly doesn't look like it's happening. I think the lineup for tomorrow is: Soriano-LF Theriot-SS Lee-1B Ramirez-3B Floyd-RF DeRosa-2B Jones-CF Soto-C Pitcher

His overall numbers haven't been very good this year. The only reason I brought up the idea is because he's been very good against lefties. I doubt the Yanks would sign him to be their first base answer. The big problem is who you would drop to get there. One of the catchers will go down when Dempster comes back (probably Hill). Out of the Cubs bench right now-Bowen is the backup catcher, Izturis is the only backup SS, Pagan is the only backup CF, Fontenot is hitting too well to be dropped, and Ward has been too good and cannot be dropped either. There simply isn't space for Franco or practically anybody unless they can play catcher, SS, or CF.

If Soto is what he's supposed to be (pretty good offense and good defense) Lou won't keep him on the bench for long, even if he starts as the backup.

Are people taking contract completely out of play here? The original list did consider contract, and I'm shocked that so many people would rather take Lugo at his contract than Izturis at his.

Izturis. He is putting up better numbers this year, and he is only signed for the rest of the year-while Lugo is making 9 million this year and for the next 3 years after this one. Lugo's contract alone makes this an easy choice.

Hmm, Jennings. This is my first and possibly only game I will be at this year, so let's please win one Cubs! This might be a day to start Izturis-he is 10/29 with 2 2B and 2 BB's against Jennings.

You don't think Jones's ability to play center changes things significantly? If Murton could play center, he would be on the MLB roster and at least platooning with Jones and possibly starting. If Jones can only play right, there is no way that he's getting back off the bench. Jones is only getting another chance because the Cubs are not happy with their production in center, while they are at least decently happy with a Floyd/DeRosa platoon in right. Second is MLB economics as Craig stated. If the Cubs could have gotten Jones off the major league roster easily like they did with Murton, they would have done so a long time ago.

Murton has always been a much better second half guy than first half. I hope that happens again this year. If Floyd goes on the DL later this week, Murton might get his chance again to show the team why they can't send him down.

I don't think people will be too upset if Hendry makes a deal because I think a deal he makes at the deadline will be a pretty good one. My best guess is that the Cubs will make no more than minor moves, which will probably disappoint many fans.

I'm willing to give Soriano a little slack on that. This is only his second year of being an OF in his life. If he feels the little hop helps his routine, I'm not going to be upset about it. The hop probably is instinct anyway-trying to train it out of him at his age will just cause him to start thinking too much out there and not letting his natural abilities take over. If the hop starts to make him drop several balls, then you revisit it, but right now it hasn't done any harm.

Which would suggest one of Soto, Cedeno, or Murton right? Taking a quick look at the stats for Iowa, all the other top hitters are left-handers (except for Kinkade, who is a career minor leaguer that has reverse splits this year anyway, and Richie, who is still the backup catcher for Iowa). Al the other top hitters are left-handers-Coats, Hoffpauir, Patterson, Moore, and Kroeger. If the Cubs are going to look for a right-handed bat in their system, it seems like one of those 3 would have to be the guy.

Well, Torii career numbers aren't good, but he's been pretty good (by CF standards) several times and bad several times. He's been really good this year, so it's a great name to throw out there. He's got a .900 OPS! Well, like I said, he's very good his year. But those .309, .306, .312, etc OBP - those years were bad. Here's a good illustration of my point: '01 - .784 OPS (.306/.479). I don't care what position you play, a .306 OBP is bad. And even a .480 SLG doesn't make up for it's badness. It's better than say a .410 SLG, but it's still doesn't mean it was a good that season. There were 14 qualified CF's in 01. Here are several of them: Andruw Jones-.251/.312/.461 Kenny Lofton-.261/.322/.398 Darin Erstad-.258/.331/.360 Johnny Damon-.256/.324/.363 Doug Glanville-.262/.285/.375 Jerry Hairston Jr.-.233/.305/.344 Brady Anderson-.202/.311/.300 If Hunter was bad, then what were these guys, mostly horrible? That's half of the qualified league (and I took out one guy who had 18 points less of OPS overall but 31 points more of OBP). It seems like you are dismissing OPS as a flawed stat and putting in OBP instead. While OBP is the more important part of OPS (and should be adjusted accordingly, I've seen 1.8 as the multiplier on several different sources from Tango to Hardball times to Dan Agonistes) OPS is still the single best indicator of scoring runs (outside some of the complex formulas), and it's not even close. So yes, if I had two players who had similar OPS's, I'd much rather take the guy with the much higher OBP. If the OPS's are not similar (say within 20 points) I'm going to take the guy with the higher OPS. You can still score a lot of runs with a bad OBP (although it is difficult), a bad OPS makes that pretty impossible even with a good OBP. If you look at this graph as well, this source even says that SLG was a better indicator than OBP over a 5 year period. Of course OPS was much better than either of them: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/ Well, yes, those are some pretty bad stats. Are you really trying to argue that Brady Anderson's .311/.300 line is good? I don't understand the point. I'm not dismissing OPS. I'm a big proponent of it actually. I just think if you're trying to determine a player's value in the past or predicting his performance in the future, there are other things to consider as well. OBP is just one of those things. A .310 OBP is bad. And when you couple that with a .465 SLG, the resulting OPS is still bad. A .775 OPS isn't necessarily bad, but if includes a .310 OBP, it is. And I've seen you post the runs/OPS correlation study before. I'm not sure how much it proves. Maybe it will prove to be ground breaking and SLG will be the stat that everyone thinks is most important, but right now I don't think that's the case. All I'm saying is that "bad" is relative. When half the league at the position the player plays is below that number, that player did not have a "bad" season, it's an average season. If Jones put up a .310/.465 line in the second half, it would be an average second half for a center fielder, because around half the league is under that number.

Well, Torii career numbers aren't good, but he's been pretty good (by CF standards) several times and bad several times. He's been really good this year, so it's a great name to throw out there. He's got a .900 OPS! Well, like I said, he's very good his year. But those .309, .306, .312, etc OBP - those years were bad. Here's a good illustration of my point: '01 - .784 OPS (.306/.479). I don't care what position you play, a .306 OBP is bad. And even a .480 SLG doesn't make up for it's badness. It's better than say a .410 SLG, but it's still doesn't mean it was a good that season. There were 14 qualified CF's in 01. Here are several of them: Andruw Jones-.251/.312/.461 Kenny Lofton-.261/.322/.398 Darin Erstad-.258/.331/.360 Johnny Damon-.256/.324/.363 Doug Glanville-.262/.285/.375 Jerry Hairston Jr.-.233/.305/.344 Brady Anderson-.202/.311/.300 If Hunter was bad, then what were these guys, mostly horrible? That's half of the qualified league (and I took out one guy who had 18 points less of OPS overall but 31 points more of OBP). It seems like you are dismissing OPS as a flawed stat and putting in OBP instead. While OBP is the more important part of OPS (and should be adjusted accordingly, I've seen 1.8 as the multiplier on several different sources from Tango to Hardball times to Dan Agonistes) OPS is still the single best indicator of scoring runs (outside some of the complex formulas), and it's not even close. So yes, if I had two players who had similar OPS's, I'd much rather take the guy with the much higher OBP. If the OPS's are not similar (say within 20 points) I'm going to take the guy with the higher OPS. You can still score a lot of runs with a bad OBP (although it is difficult), a bad OPS makes that pretty impossible even with a good OBP. If you look at this graph as well, this source even says that SLG was a better indicator than OBP over a 5 year period. Of course OPS was much better than either of them: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/

I love the logic. Jones is a CFer so he doesn't count. Fantastic. He's played 160+ gemes in CF and 800+ in RF/LF. Jones counts, he doesn't count for much unfortunately, but he counts. I'd get rid of Ward's fat ass in a NY minute if the Cubs could get an 800/900 OPS outfielder to play in RF every day. If they could find one, they might be able to play Pie in CF every day. In my breakdown of roster spots, the Cubs need 2 people who can play CF. That needs to be 2 of Jones/Pie/Pagan. The Cubs don't have enough room to keep all 3 of them when they go to 12 pitchers, and the team has to carry 2 of them. Therefore the fact Jones is on the roster would have absolutely nothing to do with Murton coming up because they would be playing different positions. Jones's purpose on the roster in that scenario would be as either a starting or backup centerfielder, and his ability to play in the corners would have no bearing on him being on the roster. Basically, the Cubs would have to drop 2 players in this scenario. 1 would be for the 12th pitcher, and 1 would be for Murton. 1 of these players is going to be 1 of Jones/Pie/Pagan. Who is going to be the other player? As for dropping Ward, I wouldn't do that for Murton. Ward has been a huge bat off of the bench for the Cubs.

If Murton were to be called up, he'd probably get about the same time as he did before. All of the left-handers, and a few of the right-handers for about 50% of the at-bats. It's going to take quite a bit for him to get noticed down there though-right now, he is just a slightly above average Iowa hitter in the hitters paradise that is the 2007 PCL. I certainly hope he can play well though, because the Cubs could really use his bat against left-handers. It might not be a matter of him being noticed as much as it may be Angel Pagan becoming Angel Pagan. I think most reasonable people knew he would come back to earth. Now that he is and probably will still come down some more will the Cubs come to their senses and bring up the BETTER hitter. The Cubs still need a CF to play against LH's though. Murton cannot, Pagan can. RF is less urgent with DeRosa heading out there. The Cubs need to find another option for a RH CF through a trade though because Pagan is not going to be that good either. Since Pagans biggest downfall is LHed pitching I dont think this makes a difference. He can also stay up. Might as well send Pie down since he isnt playing. Pagan is only up here in the first place to play against LH's. That's exactly why he was called up, and that's been the majority of his playing time in the majors. He may not be good against LH's, but he's a lot better than Pie or Jones in that area. Plus, Pie already will have to be sent down when the Cubs go to 12 pitchers. It's going to be really hard for Murton to get a spot on the roster the way it is currently. You start with 12 pitchers, so that leaves 13 position players. Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, DeRosa, Floyd, and Ward get 6 spots, so there's 7 left. You need 2 SS's, so Theriot and Izturis get spots. You need 2 CF's, so 2 of Jones/Pie/Pagan have to stay up. Add 2 catchers in, and there's only 1 spot left. That goes to 1 of 2 people: Fontenot, or Murton. Basically the only way Murton can get his way back onto the roster is if Fontenot starts slumping to the point that his bat is not useful anymore. It's not a good situation (because Murton could still help the team), but unless DeRosa starts getting a lot more time at SS I don't see how anybody else could possibly go to the minors (except of course for an upgrade at that position, like exchanging Soto for Hill). So basically the redundancy of Floyd, Ward and Jones is probably costing the Cubs from having a hitter capable of .800 ops, who would also help against LHers. Jones is 1 of the 2 CF's. He doesn't count. Floyd and Ward are somewhat redundant, you are correct, although Floyd wouldn't be needed only if Ward could play the OF consistently, and I don't think anybody wants to get rid of what Ward has given to this team so far.

If Murton were to be called up, he'd probably get about the same time as he did before. All of the left-handers, and a few of the right-handers for about 50% of the at-bats. It's going to take quite a bit for him to get noticed down there though-right now, he is just a slightly above average Iowa hitter in the hitters paradise that is the 2007 PCL. I certainly hope he can play well though, because the Cubs could really use his bat against left-handers. It might not be a matter of him being noticed as much as it may be Angel Pagan becoming Angel Pagan. I think most reasonable people knew he would come back to earth. Now that he is and probably will still come down some more will the Cubs come to their senses and bring up the BETTER hitter. The Cubs still need a CF to play against LH's though. Murton cannot, Pagan can. RF is less urgent with DeRosa heading out there. The Cubs need to find another option for a RH CF through a trade though because Pagan is not going to be that good either. Since Pagans biggest downfall is LHed pitching I dont think this makes a difference. He can also stay up. Might as well send Pie down since he isnt playing. Pagan is only up here in the first place to play against LH's. That's exactly why he was called up, and that's been the majority of his playing time in the majors. He may not be good against LH's, but he's a lot better than Pie or Jones in that area. Plus, Pie already will have to be sent down when the Cubs go to 12 pitchers. It's going to be really hard for Murton to get a spot on the roster the way it is currently. You start with 12 pitchers, so that leaves 13 position players. Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, DeRosa, Floyd, and Ward get 6 spots, so there's 7 left. You need 2 SS's, so Theriot and Izturis get spots. You need 2 CF's, so 2 of Jones/Pie/Pagan have to stay up. Add 2 catchers in, and there's only 1 spot left. That goes to 1 of 2 people: Fontenot, or Murton. Basically the only way Murton can get his way back onto the roster is if Fontenot starts slumping to the point that his bat is not useful anymore. It's not a good situation (because Murton could still help the team), but unless DeRosa starts getting a lot more time at SS I don't see how anybody else could possibly go to the minors (except of course for an upgrade at that position, like exchanging Soto for Hill).