CubColtPacer

I think the Brewers are having to use their scheduled starter for tomorrow right here. I guess they'll put Parra back in the rotation tomorrow and then bring McClung back if Sheets misses a start?

Don't they have the best avg with RISP and 2 outs in baseball? If they do, it doesn't seem like it. They don't..they're 26th out of 30 in AVG with RISP and 2 outs, whatever value that stat holds for each person. And chalk me up as one who doesn't believe they were trying to get Harden the win. Instead, I think Lou just loves to have his starters get themselves out of jams when he feels they still have it. If you look at the top 4 starters (Z, Harden, Dempster, Lilly) most of their high pitch outings were because they got into a jam, and Lou allowed them to try to pitch out of it. If that had been the 6th instead of the 5th, Lou would have done the same thing. I do agree though that especially at this point of the season with Harden, winning this game is a lot less important than the risk of him not being healthy. So I don't agree with Lou, but I doubt it was because he wanted to get Harden the win.

Lineups Cubs Soriano LF Theriot SS Lee 1B Ramirez 3B Edmonds CF DeRosa 2B Soto C Fukudome RF Harden P Brewers Cameron CF Durham 2B Braun LF Fielder 1B Hardy SS Hart RF Counsell 3B Kendall C Bush P

Ehhhh, not all that interested. I'd rather Lou start a lineup that isn't all RH against a LHP, leaving Cedeno on the bench as well. Which still leaves Blanco as your top pinch-hitter against a LHP. But he's been pinch-hitting Blanco with only 2 catchers all season. I don't see why the Cubs would have to suddenly carry 3 catchers during the playoffs in order to pinch-hit with him.

Steven Jackson/Larry Johnson/Chris Johnson/Earnest Graham Andre Johnson/Donald Driver Pick 2 RB's, 1 WR, and 1 from either

I would save Reed for a better spot. I'd either leave Edmonds in, or bring in another pinch-hitter and then bring Pie in on defense. The Brewers are going to do this again in an inning or two in a situation where the Cubs need their best right-handed pinch hitter.

This is a completely different problem than the 1st. In the 1st, his mechanics were off. When they were fixed during the 1st, he had great stuff after that. This inning he was hanging pitches for the first time all night. I'd be very hesitant to bring him out for the 6th, as I'm not sure if his stuff will come back tonight.

Uh oh...Marquis fell off the mound like he did in the 1st on a couple of those pitches to Fielder. It wasn't quite as bad in the 1st, so hopefully it doesn't continue. When he's fluid, his stuff has been really good.

While MLB didn't release the official schedule until later, it has pretty much always followed the tentative schedule to the letter. Most people just follow the tentative schedule release. And for example, last year the Cubs released that schedule on October 11th. I don't see this as very much different then teams releasing their schedules in the middle of the playoffs.

The concern there is that Shouse is waiting in the pen to come in, and Shouse kills lefties. PH with Edmonds, and then you're stuck with Blanco after Shouse comes in, and then who? Zambrano? Ideally you're trying to get that extra run in on 3rd with 1 out in the 8th and then win it. Again, it worked out with Blanco, but it would have been ideal to maximize the attempt to get Aramis in from 3rd with only 1 out. Which way is maximizing your result though? Is it: Blanco and McGehee against Shouse? Or is it Johnson against Villanueva, and then Blanco against Shouse? I would probably argue the second one. I have no faith at all that McGehee is a major league caliber hitter against any type of pitcher. Plus in the 1st scenario, you're sending up your backup catcher in a DP situation. And Shouse is an unbelievably extreme GB pitcher..his GB/FB ratio is 3.27.

And finally that makes sense after reading through it three times. :scratch: Sorry about that. I actually re-wrote parts of it a couple of times to try to make it more comprehensible, but it wasn't coming out very well. On another subject...no matter what happens tomorrow, there's no way I could label it an Estes moment. Anybody going for their 4th quality start in a row is disqualified. While I would be surprised to see Marquis pitch as well as Estes did, it will come nowhere near the utter shock that came with the shutout that Estes threw.

What stops them from clinching Friday? I think he meant that the fact that the lowest the magic number could be without clinching Thursday is 2 (if the Cubs split the next two games) and the Cubs play in the afternoon that day while Milwaukee plays at night. So the Cubs can clinch Friday, but the Cubs cannot clinch due to their win (they'd have to wait until Friday night and clinch if Milwaukee loses), so the fans going to the game have no possibility of watching the Cubs celebrate the division title by winning the game.

Either one of the two in that division would be nice, but I think it's more likely that the Mets keep losing at this point. And since the Mets are now behind the Phillies, it's also the easier scenario to see them dropping behind the Brewers.

I think it's more likely that DeRosa will be the starting RF in the playoffs with Fontenot/Cedeno platooning at 2nd base.

The Brewers are seeing 5.64 pitches per plate appearance tonight. Dempster at 62 pitches through 3.

The magic number can never go up. If the Cubs lose games the next 3 days, that just means the division magic number will stay the same. The playoff magic number would then still have a chance to go down if the Philly/Mets 2nd place team fell behind the Brewers.

One of those would be me..I'm only up 4 now instead of 10. It's going to be nearly impossible for me to win now. As soon as I heard the rule, I knew what was going to happen on the next play. I think it was one of those plays that since the whistle blew before anybody from Dallas bothered to pick it up, it's Philly ball still.

It was really close before the season, but the struggles of Jacksonville and the Colts so far have made the NFC East clearly better right now. The AFC South was better last year, but they aren't the same division so far this year.

In the bullpen and available. But the Cubs haven't exactly needed a lot of middle relief since the last time he pitched. Marmol, Samardzija, and Wood are the only ones who have pitched in the last week. Cotts is the only other pitcher to have pitched since Guzman pitched last (not counting the day after Guzman threw 2 innings when Guzman wasn't available), and he only had 1 outing. Guzman, Wuertz, Howry, and Hart have all had long layoffs.

I don't really see a chance in hell of them not picking up that option, but I suppose we'll see. Agreed. If they truly don't want him, they'll pick up the option and then trade him. You don't let a valuable property get away for nothing if you can get something good for him. This isn't a Prior situation. Harden has even more trade value now than he did in July. The Cubs knew what they were getting into when they traded for him (and their comments right after the trade reflect that). It would be absolutely crazy if they changed their minds and decided it wasn't worth it when Harden has been relatively healthy since the trade. It isn't even a decision on if to pick up the option. You pick up the option, and then decide what to do with him next.

Lineups Cubs Soriano Fontenot Lee Ramirez Hoffpauir Soto Edmonds Cedeno Lilly Astros Abercrombie Loretta Tejada Berkman Pence Castillo Erstad Quintero Moehler

And Arizona just keeps getting the knife twisted in them in worse and worse ways as the days go on. First they blow the save thanks to a sac fly by Corey Patterson in the 9th. Then in the 10th, the Reds have taken the lead. Thanks to who else-a Micah Owings pinch-hit RBI double. As much as I don't want Arizona to make the playoffs, this is just being too cruel.

Didn't Lilly pitch pretty well last time out against the Brewers? Personally I wouldn't want an amped up Z going in his first start back against the Brewers. A nice quiet Monday afternoon game against the Astros in a neutral site seems like a better place for him to keep his emotions from taking over and overthrowing and hurting the shoulder again. He pitched ok. 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, 2 home runs. Milwaukee has a huge split between left-handers and right-handers though (.826 vs .738). Houston has a similar split, but much less pronounced (.779 vs .735). If we're setting up Lilly for his best chance to succeed, Monday would be his day. I don't remember how effective vs lucky he was in that game but I think he had 6 shutout innings before tiring and giving up 2 HR's in the 7th. I think if you looks at his splits Lilly actually is kind of reverse what you would expect - very good against RH and mediocre against LH. So maybe the Brewers success against LH pitching would not so much apply to Lilly. You are right (or at least very close). He had 5 shutout innings before giving up 3 in the 6th..probably should have given up more in the 6th but the Brewers made 2 outs on the basepaths that inning. Lilly is a guy who doesn't have consistent splits against right-handers and left-handers. 03 he was better against left-handers. 04 was better against left-handers. 05 was better against right-handers. 06 was better against left-handers. 07 he didn't really have a split. And in 08 he's been better against right-handers. There isn't any discernible pattern in his splits. I don't really think he's immune from Milwaukee's hitting of left-handers because of his splits, and Lilly's numbers against Milwaukee each of the last 2 years reflect that.

4? Cubs/Astros Brewers/Phillies x2 Am I missing something here? Isnt tommorow a double header for us too, or is that Monday? Another thing though, obviously, there will be a lot of Cubs fans, but also, a lot of Brewer fans. It will be interesting to see who they root for. They'll probably be split on it. I was listening to their radio station this afternoon before their game, and the way they sounded, they were all about the wild card, and not even talking about catching the Cubs for the division. They were mainly concerned with the Astros, Phillies, and of course, the Brewers themselves. Neither day for the Cubs is a doubleheader. The third game will be made up at the end of the season if necessary.

Didn't Lilly pitch pretty well last time out against the Brewers? Personally I wouldn't want an amped up Z going in his first start back against the Brewers. A nice quiet Monday afternoon game against the Astros in a neutral site seems like a better place for him to keep his emotions from taking over and overthrowing and hurting the shoulder again. He pitched ok. 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, 2 home runs. Milwaukee has a huge split between left-handers and right-handers though (.826 vs .738). Houston has a similar split, but much less pronounced (.779 vs .735). If we're setting up Lilly for his best chance to succeed, Monday would be his day. Zambrano's healtht is way more important than anything that has to do with Lilly. I would agree with that (although I don't necessarily agree with the fact that avoiding the Brewers will be some great help in his health). If they decide though that they really want Z to face the Astros, then throw him out there tomorrow night. Then Lilly can go Monday, Marquis Tuesday, Dempster Wednesday, and Harden Thursday.