Mephistopheles

im pretty sure davenport and silver would agree with me.

he was healthy last year and he didn't. actually he did. nice attempt to outsmart me. im not going to say you're lying because i truly think you think you are correct.

Not that I disagree, but we're not exactly in a position where we have anyone who can fill the void in house starting with the 2010 season. It's probably a good year and a half before Josh Vitters will be ready if he's still with the organization. Big time free agent first baseman are rare. Next year there's Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson. In 2011 there's Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. None of those guys are really any better than Derrek Lee, by then they may be, but none of them are great. Adrian Gonzalez can be an FA after 2011, but I can promise you he never goes on the market, he'll be snapped up in a trade before then and signed long term by someone. Really the Cubs' best bet to replace Derrek Lee after next season is do stop gaps until Vitters is ready or make a trade. If the first method is the desired course of action and Derrek Lee's productivity slips (to the point where not a lot of teams would want him), then he's not going to be a bad guy to extend for a season or two until Vitters is fully ready to take over. If the Cubs sour on Vitters or he doesn't pan out or he's traded then the Cubs are probably going to have to make a move, unfortunately our system sucks and shows very little signs of improvement so we're going to be at a disadvantage to Boston or whoever is in the market for the same bats in 2011.

That's nice. If he stays healthy he's going to exceed that. Nate Silver, Clay Davenport and I know that. Even if you factor in the chance that he gets hurt, he's going to exceed that. Nate Silver, Clay Davenport I know that. Apparently you don't know enough about PECOTA or the concept of value.

Not for him. His defense improves upon those numbers and he's been that low twice in the last like seven years. One year when he had a major wrist injury and came back too soon, we can throw that season out, and the other was last year which is probably more of an aberration than anything. Not that I agree completely with the methods, but you do realize that fangraphs had him out performing his contract last year and he's probably going to surpass that level of production this year... Even if their numbers are off some it's not going to make his contract "bad". Bad contracts are four year contracts for fifty mil plus to thirty-one year old starting pitchers who have two good years as a starting pitcher out of a career that spans eleven seasons. That's a bad contract. Derrek Lee's isn't.

It depends if it means deleting Lee and replacing him with Hoffpauier then yes it's monumentally stupid. If it's deleting Lee and getting another quality 1B at a cheaper price it's not. has it ever occured to you that his 13m price tag for the next two years is far from a bad contract. its not long term and saving the money wont help us elsewhere.

greg peavey isn't draft eligible. we can't sign him by then.

It's probably time to start matching players to teams...

Did Moore get into the games this weekend? Right now I'm thinking that two likely guys the Cubs would target would be Brad Roxberger at USC and James Paxton at Kentucky if they decide to add more pitching to our system (what don't we need to add?). Paxton might be pitching his way out of our range, unfortunately. Roxberger still has some command issues, but figures to go in the 20-35 range. Some other things across the world. Robert Stock looks to be moving into the Sunday rotation spot for USC. He blew away #3 Arizona State for five innings. His bat hasn't come around but he's a very good catch and throw catcher with plus power potential. The thing we have to remember about him is that he graduated a year early from HS and was already a year younger than his class in high school. He enrolled in USC at age 16. He'll be 19 until pretty much 2010 so his bat could be a late bloomer. He's really about as old as most freshmen (and two years younger than true freshman Chris Dwyer). Either way, his potential on the mound behind the plate is first round worthy, but his performance and lack of pitching consistently leave him in the 2-5 range. If he continues to have success as a starter like he did yesterday, he could easily vault into the first round. Sammy Solis (pot'l 1st rounder in 2010) is done for the season. Matt Harvey has struggled mightily, and Matt Harvey probably isn't the top guy in the draft anymore. Barrett Loux and him are neck and neck and Anthony Ranuado probably moved ahead of them both.

This is almost too funny. Guys deleting Derrek Lee would be monumentally stupid.

quite a few...

im not @ cubs.com. you can go there.

do i really need to tell you why i think guys like milton bradley will get hurt?

i cant wait until teams stop making closers as a position.

they wont be and you know it.

if hoffpauir is our starting 1B for any stretch of time we're screwed.

This thread confirms my suspicions about this place.

i dont think vance or logan care.

who cares?

just turn registration off and do some in house "cleaning". you know cleaning out losers like meph.

It's Vizcaino.

No.

You're not the first person to think of this you know. Stolen base break-even point varies from 25% to close to 95%.

No, that's all next season in a conspiracy to draft Bryce Harper in 2011.

Awards: NL Cy Young - Chad Billingsley NL MVP - Albert Pujols NL Rookie of the Year - Colby Rasmus AL Cy Young - Roy Halladay AL MVP - Mark Teixeira AL Rookie of the Year - David Price and Mark Prior makes a non-simulated start somewhere.