Mephistopheles

yay now we can finally trade for Roberts. Yippee

we coulda traded Pie + for Bedard then. And kept Hill. Oh well. I hate this dumbass organization. Im converting to the Cardinals or something

After adjusting for league (both league difficulty factor and pitchers faced in the National League), defense and park factors. I am getting a difference of about +9 runs for Jake Peavy. I haven't put them on the Cubbies yet, but given Jake's tendency to get the ball on the ground a bit higher rate than Santana, and one of the things Peavy is hurt by more (walks) is actually helped for pitchers at Wrigley, we're probably talking about Peavy squeezing out 3 runs or so there putting him down by about 6 runs. He's a very good hitting pitcher, and while Santana has done quite well in his 30 ABs there's a pretty damn good chance that the six run lead evaporates with the bats, ever so slightly going into Peavy's favor. How'd I do this. Basically I derived factors for Peavy and Santana using their home parks. Petco Park shows no statistically significant park effect on Jake Peavy. I did however, use a method of scaling park factors for a regression to the mean kind of way. I completely took out pitchers ABs and did some adjustment for league in a similar manner, although using pitchers converting leagues of course. I used the last three seasons of data weighted 11, 8, 5. We would expect Peavy's opponents to hit about .234/.297/.383 in MLB average settings and Johan's to hit about .221/.266/.380. So really the only differences are about .013 BA, .018 BB/PA, and -.010 IsP. Over the course of a full season that comes out to approximately 14 singles, 10 walks, and 8 singles becoming doubles (helping peavy). There's also a slight expected increase in double plays added for Peavy. This is because the main difference in BA (okay the only difference in BA) is the difference of .013 in BABIP (.283 Peavy, .270 Santana). That BABIP may be a little low on Santana, given Wrigley's tendencies however. Either way the higher BABIP is a direct result of groundballs being more prevalent for Peavy. Wrigley's only going to increase GB outs for Peavy. Either way in a nuetral setting there's 2 or 3 more GIDPs that Peavy gets (that's 2 or 3 extra outs). Jake Peavy is also a better defender by Santana, going by PMR we're talking about a difference of about 3 singles that Peavy would have snagged and converted into outs. Finally summing all of this up and converting them to runs of course, we get Santana being +8.7 runs over a full season without adjusting for Peavy being a better fit for the Cubs and Peavy being a likely better hitter by a half a dozen runs. Either way it's either a slight favor to Peavy or a tie. It's hard to make a great case for Santana being a better fit for the Cubs than Peavy. Santana's also at greater risk for an injury if coming to the Cubs. His pitch count has always hovered near 100 - rarely going over 110. This may sound like he does not have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, but the 220+ seasons he has really means more than the PC (screw you BP). Peavy's really not that much a risk for wear and tear. He throws about 105, going 110 every now and then. Keep in mind that pitchers tend to increase their PC coming to the NL (i know it's backwards). They also tend to increase their walk rates (which I actually did NOT take into account oh there's more reason to like Peavy). Not only all of this, but there's another adjustment to be made: Handedness. With the notable exceptions of Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn (for now) most of the best hitters in the National League Central are right handed (and relatively speaking there's a higher RH percentage in this division than in others and one of the biggest park effects in baseball is Enron's RH HR factor, helping Peavy there). Now, Santana gets righties and lefties out at the same rate but Peavy is nails against right handed hitters. So there's that other factor I did not include in this analysis. All of this probably pushes to Peavy being around +5-10 for the Cubs. Other clubs value Santana more than Peavy (and rightfully so), so Peavy's production is a bigger bang for less money. There's certainly no question that the given a choice between Peavy and Santana, the Cubs gotta go with Peavy.

1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument correlation doesn't mean causation. Ok, you're correct on that. Past ERA+ numbers are not necessarily the best indicators of future performance. With that said, what are your reasons for believing that Peavy will have better ERA+ numbers than Santana over the next 5 years? What are the factors that haven't come in to play yet that will make Peavy have better performance? What is predicting that change in performance? Edit: I see your last post now, and will wait for your argument. You missed my point, understandably i can see how you infer that. Correlation (ie the fact that my distaste for ERA and the fact that it hurts my argument as well) does not mean causation (the fact that it hurts my argument causes me to hate ERA).

1. catcher with [expletive] - you can do this for any team. it's a stupid argument. 2-3. You got me, I don't know anything about baseball... Similar means equal? I obviously meant the money was better use elsewhere. Of course had I known DeRosa would hit .280/.370/.430 or w/e he hit do you think I would have thought that? The point is that there was little reason to believe that his 06 was anything more than an outlier. Now that he's done it twice, there's a lot more reason to believe it's something he can do. At the time he looked like a .280/.330/.400 player, at best (give or take). Theriot is and still looks like a .280/.340/.360 player. Similar wasn't that bad of a word to use there. The real question here is how the hell do you even know that? People read my blog? YOU SECRETLY LOVE ME I TAKE EVERYTHING BACK AND WILL HAVE SEX WITH YOU.

I have an argument, as always. Give me a few minutes to make up the argument, *cough*.

1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument correlation doesn't mean causation.

I wasn't aware you had connections in the Twins front office who openly tell you how much they like players on other teams. Pie sucks. Ellsbury doesn't. it's not rocket science I still don't get why people think Ellsbury is anything special. Because he's fast? I mean, neither Pie or Ellsbury can hit lefties, and Ellsbury had a whopping .741 OPS in AAA (360+ AB's). I didn't say Ellsbury was special. I said they would like him more than Pie. It's no secret they're all over his ass. That was the point of the Revere comment..... which of course Cro Magnon did not understand. He had to look up Ben Revere on the Internet before answering the question, of course.

1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win.

I wasn't aware you had connections in the Twins front office who openly tell you how much they like players on other teams. Pie sucks. Ellsbury doesn't. it's not rocket science Your opinion. Twins scouts might disagree. But if you have weekly tea parties with them, I guess it's really not worth arguing. Not true. Twin scouts thought Ben Revere was a first round talent. (no pun intended) Signability. What they've done over there has worked pretty well for them the past decade. You said Theriot = Derosa. That nullifies every evaluation you make henceforth? 1. Sure that has something to do with it, but the scouts still had to think he was a first round talent in order to make them select him. 2. I didn't say Theriot's = DeRosa. When have I ever been nice to Theriot? DeRosa will probaby fall apart this season, but Theriot already in shambles. 3. Keep making things up. It's the only argument you're good at.

1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP

I wasn't aware you had connections in the Twins front office who openly tell you how much they like players on other teams. Pie sucks. Ellsbury doesn't. it's not rocket science Your opinion. Twins scouts might disagree. But if you have weekly tea parties with them, I guess it's really not worth arguing. Not true. Twin scouts thought Ben Revere was a first round talent. (no pun intended)

1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case.

it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day No it isn't. I'd take Peavy over him straight up. You would take the lesser pitcher. And Peavy is the only one in Santana's league. and pitches half his game in the best pitcher's park in the league. ETA: Peavy was actually pretty much the same away from PETCO, thanks to an OpBABIP 55 points lower on the road There's been no statistical significance between his splits 3 of the last 4 years.

I wasn't aware you had connections in the Twins front office who openly tell you how much they like players on other teams. Pie sucks. Ellsbury doesn't. it's not rocket science

it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day No it isn't. I'd take Peavy over him straight up. You would take the lesser pitcher. And Peavy is the only one in Santana's league. Not necessarily.

The Twins wouldn't want the centerpiece to be a player who's arbitration eligible after this season. They'd be interested in Pie, but would take all the Ellsbury offers over him + w/e we offer easily.

it's close to night and day. maybe twilight and day No it isn't. I'd take Peavy over him straight up.

the cubs dont have the prospects to compete with the names being thrown around for santana though.

santana's the best pitcher in baseball but it's not night and day between him and the others.

why trade your entire farm system for one year of johan santana when you can trade half of your farm system for two years of erik bedard.

fine trade for brian roberts and erik bedard allowing hill and pie to go, but then trade for khalil greene with murton +, sign kenny lofton and ill be happy. i could care less about getting roberts and bedard, it's probably a wash trade but man oh man it's worth getting a real SS. 1. Brian Roberts, 2B 2. Kenny Lofton, CF 3. Derrek Lee, 1B 4. Kosuke Fukudome, RF 5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B 6. Alfonso Soriano, LF 7. Khalil Greene, SS 8. Geovany Soto, C 1. Carlos Zambrano 2. Erik Bedard 3. Ted Lilly 4. Jason Marquis 5. Jon Lieber Not happening, but I just got back from Mass so I am certainly in a mood to be nice, might as well ask me questions while Im in a good mood. I also got my official GRE scores back so I in a doubly good mood. (I didnt know my exact writing) That team would be expected to score about 855 runs, allowing around 725. 93 wins.

The DBacks depleted farm system could certainly be in BPA mode come draft day, but being a big contender now with a young nucleus, they could be looking to add something polished. Names they will consider include Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, but decide to take the college arm with the highest upside after he's coming off of a resurgent junior campaign, Shooter Hunt. 1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Pedro Alvarez, 1B/LF - Vanderbilt 2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS - Griffin HS (GA) 3. Kansas City Royals - Aaron Crow, RHP - Missouri 4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP - San Diego 5. San Francisco Giants - Eric Hosmer, 1B - American Heritage HS (FL) 6. Florida Marlins - Tim Melville, RHP - Holt HS (MO) 7. Cincinnati Reds- Ryan Perry, RHP - Arizona 8. Chicago White Sox - Christian Friedrich, LHP - Eastern Kentucky 9. Washington Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C - Patriot HS (CA) 10. Houston Astros - Gerrit Cole, RHP - Orange Lutheran HS (CA) 11. Texas Rangers - Alex Meyer, RHP - Greensburg HS (IN) 12. Oakland A's - Justin Smoak, 1B - South Carolina 13. St. Louis Cardinals - Jacob Thompson, RHP - Virginia 14. Minnesota Twins - Harold Martinez, SS/3B - Braddock HS (FL) 15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Aaron Hicks, RHP - Wilson HS (CA) 16. Milwaukee Brewers - Cole St. Clair, LHP - Rice 17. Toronto Blue Jays - Yonder Alonso, 1B - Miami 18. New York Mets- Brett Hunter, RHP - Pepperdine 19. Chicago Cubs- Sonny Gray, RHP - Smyrna HS (TN) 20. Seattle Mariners - Tyson Ross, RHP - Cal 21. Detroit Tigers - Dennis Raben, RF - Miami 22. New York Mets - Isaac Galloway, OF - Los Osos HS (CA) 23. San Diego Padres - Scott Green, RHP - Kentucky 24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B - Stephens County HS (GA) 25. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Lobstein, LHP - Coconino HS (AZ) 26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Shooter Hunt, RHP - Tulane

SO WE CAN GET EXCITED THIS WEEK MY MEPHARMY lets see i project that these guys will project at: .290/.335/.545 - Alfonso Soriano .279/.331/.368 - Ryan Theriot .301/.381/.467 - Kosuke Fukudome .295/.368/.456 - Matt Murton .286/.341/.431 - Mark DeRosa .278/.325/.432 - Ronny Cedeno .285/.356/.478 - Geovany Soto .275/.326/.465 - Felix Pie .301/.373/.504 - Derrek Lee .299/.354/.551 - Aramis Ramirez ERAs 3.93 Carlos Zambrano 4.12 Rich Hill 4.21 Ted Lilly 4.87 Jon Lieber 5.12 Jason Marquis 4.65 Sean Marshall 4.76 Sean Gallagher 3.21 Carlos Marmol 3.45 Kerry Wood

1. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Pedro Alvarez, 1B/LF - Vanderbilt 2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS - Griffin HS (GA) 3. Kansas City Royals - Aaron Crow, RHP - Missouri 4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP - San Diego 5. San Francisco Giants - Eric Hosmer, 1B - American Heritage HS (FL) 6. Florida Marlins - Tim Melville, RHP - Holt HS (MO) 7. Cincinnati Reds- Ryan Perry, RHP - Arizona 8. Chicago White Sox - Christian Friedrich, LHP - Eastern Kentucky 9. Washington Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C - Patriot HS (CA) 10. Houston Astros - Gerrit Cole, RHP - Orange Lutheran HS (CA) 11. Texas Rangers - Alex Meyer, RHP - Greensburg HS (IN) 12. Oakland A's - Justin Smoak, 1B - South Carolina 13. St. Louis Cardinals - Jacob Thompson, RHP - Virginia 14. Minnesota Twins - Harold Martinez, SS/3B - Braddock HS (FL) 15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Aaron Hicks, RHP - Wilson HS (CA) 16. Milwaukee Brewers - Cole St. Clair, LHP - Rice 17. Toronto Blue Jays - Yonder Alonso, 1B - Miami 18. New York Mets- Brett Hunter, RHP - Pepperdine 19. Chicago Cubs- Sonny Gray, RHP - Smyrna HS (TN) 20. Seattle Mariners - Tyson Ross, RHP - Cal 21. Detroit Tigers - Dennis Raben, RF - Miami 22. New York Mets - Isaac Galloway, OF - Los Osos HS (CA) 23. San Diego Padres - Scott Green, RHP - Kentucky 24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B - Stephens County HS (GA) Let's see I've taken 6 HS products and 2 college products