Wrigley Rat

I love the offseason, but so far all the Cubs have done to improve on 2008 is lose Kerry Wood, Bobby Howry, Jim Edmonds, and Darryl Ward (and maybe Henry Blanco). We haven't made any improvements yet. I vote for an improvement ASAP. I don't want to hear we are out of anything yet - we should have enough money to do anything at this point.

Interesting - I missed that - was it on the Bulls game?

it means that unless something unforeseen pops up, the cubs are done in the peavy deal Thanks - that helps. :) It seems to make so much sense now!

Here is the update on Blackhawks Intermission. This is the quote this time around, "Our David Kaplan is reporting barring unforeseen circumstances, the Cubs are no longer pursuing pitcher Jake Peavy." I'm pretty sure that doesn't make a lot of sense (the wording). "Barring" seems to mean one thing, while "no longer pursuing" means another. Feel free to discuss.

I'm guessing that they will repeat and possibly expound on what they said earlier on Blackhawks Pre-Game during the first intermission. I will listen carefully and anyone else who wants to should do the same. It should come in 15-20 minutes or so. When I first heard it, it was a second-hand report from Pat Boyle saying that "Dave Kaplan is reporting that..." Stay tuned if curious...

What could possibly be an unforseen circumstance? They said they would still pursue Peavy even if they signed Dempster. He's still available, so the only circumstances should be (a) the Cubs have signed someone else (b) the Cubs have nowhere to trade Marquis or © the Cubs are bankrupt and can't spend another dollar over the current budget. Or maybe they figured they had no shot at getting Dempster anyway...so they decided to tell the media that they were going to go after Peavy and Dempster knowing full well that they would only get one but putting on the old Cubbie facade that, boy, we sure tried but it just didn't work out... Can anyone confirm that Kaplan said this? My TiVo was able to confirm it, but I'm guessing you'd like someone other than me to post it! ;)

According to Dave Kaplan (on Blackhawks pregame), "Due to unforeseen circumstances, the Cubs are no longer seeking a trade for Jake Peavy."

As this has gotten closer to reality (for the Cubs acquiring Peavy), I've started to have a sick feeling that Peavy would be a terrible disappointment as a Cub. Either his injury history or his poor road stats would be magnified. I just can't imagine the Cubs giving up their #1 prospect in Josh Vitters in this kind of trade, and I think San Diego was demanding him. Plan B - Sign Dempster for 4 years - $55 million with an option for a 5th year. Look at a second tier starting pitching free agent. Sign a left-handed hitting RF'er. Trade Marquis. Sign Blanco. Sign Wood. In no particular order. Count your blessings that we aren't on the hook for $75ish million over 5 years for Peavy.

Maybe Newsday can convince the Mets to sign Trevor Hoffman - that would at least eliminate one team from stealing Kerry away from the Cubs. I suppose if Wood signs elsewhere, the Cubs could sign Hoffman, but there is a big drop-off from Wood to Hoffman, and I still think Wood would give the Cubs a hometown discount. http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/columnists/jimbaumbach/blog/2008/11/should_mets_pursue_trevor_hoff.html

I'd be game, but I think he would cost more for 2009 than Dempster would on a per-year basis. I think Dempster is the better pitcher as this point in their careers, plus Dempster is a big-time clubhouse presence. If Dempster turns down our best offer, then Johnson could be part of a Plan B, C, or D.

I somewhat agree with his rankings. Of his top 10, I have nine of them in my top 13. I have Hak-Ju Lee 23rd due to a lack of experience. I think it's a bit early to have Cerda and Watkins so high as well, although putting them on a top 20 list is understandable due to the lack of depth in our system. I think it's clear that the Cubs have 5-7 tradeable players in the minors. After that, there only seem to be throw-ins or players a team would take a chance on. After Vitters, Ceda, Colvin, Cashner, Rhee, Castillo, and maybe Veal no one else (in the minors) has much chance to be a big piece of a trade (Samardzija is in the majors).

Looking at Baseball America's rankings for 2008, Atlanta's minor league system was ranked 8th while Chicago's was 20th. The players the Braves are offering were: - Gorkys Hernandez - ranked 5th in their system, but unproven at the Major league level - Yunel Escobar - not ranked due to ineligibility (but ranked 10th in their system in 2007 when the whole system ranked 16th), some success so far - should have a bright future - Charlie Morton - not ranked due to ineligibility (not ranked in the past), poor major league numbers ---OR--- - Jo-Jo Reyes - not ranked due to ineligibility (but ranked 8th in their system in 2007), poor major league numbers - Jeff Locke is also rumored to be a person of interest to the Padres, but he was ranked 8th by BA this year, while untouchable Tommy Hanson ranked 9th. Of course their 2008 season's have altered their rankings quite a bit. The Cubs are reportedly willing to include: - Felix Pie - not ranked due to ineligibility (but ranked 1st in their system in 2007 when the whole system ranked 18th), poor major league numbers but limited opportunities to play - Sean Marshall - not ranked due to ineligibility the last two years, but with 2+ seasons of effectiveness and improvement, still cheap, lefty starter (two years in a row of an ERA under 4.00) - Ryan Theriot - a starting SS for two seasons, cheap, proven Looking at the two trade scenarios, I think the Padres are getting the best player from the Cubs in Sean Marshall. I think Escobar is the 2nd best player, Theriot is 3rd, Pie 4th, Hernandez is 5th. I might be over-valuing the Cubs' players, but I would rather have the stats of a Marshall over the stats of an Escobar. I take the Cubs offer.

I think exactly the opposite. I think we are being used as a decoy and the Pads are just trying to get that extra whatever they want from the Braves. I have to agree with Ryan. If you are limited on who you can trade a stud SP to, you certainly want to work a deal with the team with the best players available, and it's really not even close between the Braves and the Cubs. In a perfect world, Towers would be trading Peavy to the Braves for Escobar and Hanson, but the Braves aren't going to do that, and it's possible Peavy wouldn't even accept the trade there if they did. Towers is using the Cubs as leverage to try to get the Braves to cave. If the Braves don't cave, then the Padres probably view the Cubs offer as a better short term fix than what the Braves are offering. I can agree with that once you include Hanson in the conversation. I had been working under the assumption that there is no way Hanson would be included, so now Towers is trying to get the best package available from the Cubs.

I think exactly the opposite. I think we are being used as a decoy and the Pads are just trying to get that extra whatever they want from the Braves. Maybe, but Peavy mentioned he wouldn't want to go to Atlanta if Yunel Escobar was going the other way. I know that he has since stepped back from that statement, but I think it was to give back the negotiating edge to Towers that Peavy took away due to his statement. If Escobar were to be taken out of the trade rumors, I might feel that Atlanta had more of an edge.

I personally think the Braves are being used as the decoy here by Towers. I don't think Peavy wants to go to a Braves team that is so far down in the standings with low expectations for the future, especially after trading away their top SS prospect (as has been reported). I think Peavy has told Towers to get him to the Cubs one way or another and the Cubs weren't negotiating against themselves, so they only offered what they felt they needed to and Towers realized he needed some more leverage. Hence, the reason why we know the Braves' offer, but are still a bit sticky on the Cubs' offer. I think Peavy will become a Cub in a few days. I think 4-5 players will be traded to the Padres from the list of names mentioned over the past couple weeks. I imagine a SS, a top low-level prospect, and 2-3 pitchers definitely including Sean Marshall. Just my 2 cents.

Don't forget CF. Are there any LH CF options out there besides the one we already have in house? Oops - I meant to include Fukudome as an option at CF.

Looking at the Cubs lineup, there are very few positions that they have any flexibility with in order to get a left-handed hitter in the lineup. Shortstop, 2B, and RF are the only positions seemingly available. (The Cubs can't and wouldn't move Soto without a public outcry). The rest of the positions have no-trade clauses (ARam, DLee, Sori, and Fuku). We also need a lefty/switch-hitter to become a leadoff man, so getting a Furcal would make a lot of sense (but getting back a K. Greene wouldn't.). I could imagine a lineup looking somewhat like this for next year: 1 SS Furcal 2 CF R. Johnson 3 1B Lee 4 3B Ramirez 5 RF A. Dunn/B. Abreu/R. Ibanez 6 LF Soriano 7 2B DeRosa/Fontenot 8 C Soto

Just for fun, I ranked the remaining players from this draft in order of their current prospect status in my mind. I think the first three will be major league regulars. The next four will get at least a cup of coffee in the majors. The rest need a lot of luck, a new plus pitch, or steroids (hopefully not)! I personally think this was a pretty good draft considering no picks in the 2nd-4th rounds and the slow progress of Colvin. 1 Colvin 2 Samardzija 3 Rosa 4 Redmond 5 Papelbon 6 Parker 7 Rundle 8 Clevenger 9 Kopach 10 Muldowney 11 Kreier 12 Cooper 13 Latham 14 Samson 15 Hatley 16 Huseby 17 Camp 18 Andersen 19 Lansford 20 Matulia

Snyder would need the same situation to be assigned to Iowa.

As per Arizona Phil - this is where I got the idea that he could end up in the minors (even though Phil doesn't think it would work).

I made a bunch of assumptions, including Rich Hill accepting a minor league assignment and not being claimed by another team. According to Arizona Phil: If it looks like someone would claim him, Rich Hill could always start on the major league DL, train at Extended Spring Training, and do a minor league rehab throughout the minor league system. I just can't imagine the Cubs giving up on him after such acclaim two seasons ago!

Mine differs from most, but I have less confidence in many of people's 5-10 candidates. 1 Josh Vitters 2 Jose Ceda 3 Dae-Eun Rhee 4 Andrew Cashner 5 Tyler Colvin 6 Jeff Samardzija 7 Jovan Rosa 8 Casey Lambert 9 Jay Jackson 10 Welington Castillo 11 Ryan Flaherty 12 Starlin Castro 13 Donald Veal 14 Aaron Shafer 15 Esmailin Caridad 16 Dan McDaniel 17 Jose Ascanio 18 Tony Thomas 19 David Schlitter 20 Alex Maestri 21 Marquez Smith 22 Kyler Burke 23 Hak-Ju Lee 24 Rocky Roquet 25 Mitch Atkins 26 Robert Hernandez 27 Hung-Wen Chen 28 Matt Cerda 29 Russell Canzler 30 Jeremy Papelbon 31 Jayson Ruhlman 32 James Adduci 33 Brandon Guyer 34 Chris Carpenter 35 Steve Clevenger 36 Marcos Mateo 37 Casey McGehee 38 Nate Spears 39 Casey Coleman 40 Larry Suarez

Sorry for the long post... Here are my predictions on placements for 2008-2009 (it will change over the next few weeks when we find out who leaves us via minor league free agency and who we sign). 24 players are listed for Iowa and Tennessee, 25 players for Daytona and Peoria, and replacement players are listed after each team. (Backup positions listed in parentheses) (FA = Free Agent) (FA/40 = Would be a free agent, but is currently on the 40-man roster and therefore is property of the Cubs) (CL = Closer) (LR = Long reliever) Iowa: C – Koyie Hill (FA/40) C – Tony Richie (FA) (Most likely will be someone new here) 1B – Jake Fox (LF/RF) 2B – Nate Spears (Rule V eligible) SS – Matt Camp 3B – Casey McGehee (1B) IF – Andres Blanco (SS) (FA) IF – Bobby Scales (2B,3B,1B,LF) (FA) LF – Tyler Colvin CF – Brad Snyder (no options left, but can be sent to minors if not claimed by another team) RF – Doug Deeds (1B) (FA) OF – Josh Kroeger (1B) SP – Esmailin Caridad SP – Rich Hill (If he has his control – otherwise EST) SP – Randy Wells SP – Mitch Atkins (Rule V eligible) SP – J.R. Mathes (Rule V eligible) LR – Angel Guzman LR – Justin Berg (Rule V eligible) RP – Jose Ceda (CL) RP – Jose Ascanio RP – Kevin Hart RP – Rocky Roquet RP – Ed Campusano (FA) Could make the team due to injury/trade/Rule V Draft, but otherwise should be released/let go as a FA/or sent to a lower level: C – Chris Robinson (Rule V eligible) OF – Sam Fuld RP – Greg Reinhard (Rule V eligible) RP – Jesse Estrada (Rule V eligible) RP – Carmen Pignatiello (FA – I think) RP – Jim Henderson (Rule V eligible) RP – Dumas Garcia (FA) Tennessee: C – Welington Castillo C – Mark Reed (Rule V eligible) 1B – Blake Lalli © 2B – Tony Thomas SS – Darwin Barney 3B – Kyle Reynolds (1B) (Rule V eligible) IF – Jonathan Mota (3B, 2B, SS, LF) (Rule V eligible) IF – Robinson Chirinos (2B, SS, 3B, C) (FA) LF – Russell Canzler (1B) (Rule V eligible) CF – James Adduci (Rule V eligible) RF – Ty Wright OF – Ryan Harvey (Rule V eligible) SP – Hung-Wen Chen SP – Marcos Mateo (Rule V eligible) SP – Marco Carrillo SP – Billy Muldowney SP – Jeremy Papelbon LR – Mark Holliman (Rule V eligible) LR – Alex Maestri RP – Donald Veal (CL) RP – David Schlitter RP – Casey Lambert RP – Blake Parker RP – Jayson Ruhlman (Rule V eligible) Could make the team due to injury/trade/Rule V Draft, but otherwise should be released/let go as a FA/or sent to a lower level: 3B – Josh Lansford IF – Matt Matulia (SS, 2B, 3B) OF – Yusuf Carter (Rule V eligible) RP – Billy Petrick (FA/40) RP – Todd Blackford (Rule V eligible) RP – Adam Harben (FA) RP – Grant Johnson (Rule V eligible) RP – Matt Avery (Rule V eligible) Daytona: C – Steve Clevenger (1B) C – Luis Flores 1B – Jovan Rosa (3B) 2B – Ryan Flaherty (SS) SS – Nathan Samson (2B) 3B – Marquez Smith (2B) IF – Jake Opitz (2B, LF, SS, 1B) IF – Ryan Keedy (1B) LF – Brandon Guyer (CF) CF – Jonathan Wyatt (LF, RF) RF – Dylan Johnston (LF, 1B) OF – Elvis Lara (2B, RF, LF, 3B, SS) DH – Luis Bautista (1B, C, 3B) SP – Jay Jackson SP – Robert Hernandez SP – James Russell SP – Aaron Shafer SP – Jose Pina (Rule V eligible) LR – Kitt Kopach LR – Dustin Sasser RP – Steve Vento (CL) RP – Jordan Latham RP – Michael Cooper RP – Jake Muyco RP – Craig Muschko Could make the team due to injury/trade/Rule V Draft, but otherwise should be released/let go as a FA/or sent to a lower level: IF – Jose Made SP – Chris Siegfried RP – John Muller RP – Jon Mueller Peoria: C – Carlos Perez C – Michael Brenly (1B) 1B – Rebel Ridling (LF) 2B – Josh Harrison (RF, LF, CF) SS – Starlin Castro (2B, 3B, CF) 3B – Josh Vitters IF – John Contreras (3B, 1B) IF – Marwin Gonzalez (SS, 2B, 3B) LF – Drew Rundle (CF, RF) CF – Nelson Perez (RF, LF, 1B) RF – Kyler Burke (1B, LF) OF – Jericho Jones (LF, RF, 1B) OF – Tony Campana (CF) SP – Cedric Redmond SP – Ryan Searle SP – Justin Bristow SP – Casey Coleman SP – Chris Carpenter LR – Andrew Cashner (I think he needs the innings) LR – Jeff Beliveau RP – Dan McDaniel (CL) RP – Luke Sommer RP – David Cales RP – Josh Whitlock RP – James Leverton Could make the team due to injury/trade/Rule V Draft, but otherwise should be released/let go as a FA/or sent to a lower level: C – Mario Mercedes 1B – Sean Hoorelbeke OF – Ryan Sontag OF – TeWayne Willis OF – Kurt Calvert RP – Leon Johnson RP – Kevin Kreier RP – Andres Quezada RP – Ryan Acosta RP – Audy Santana RP – Alberto Cabrera RP – Zach Ashwood RP – Al Albuquerque SP – Dae-Eun Rhee (if healthy he would make it) SP – Rafael Dolis (if healthy he would make it)

Waikiki played their first game of the year. They lost 8-4. Marquez Smith played 3B and went 1-for-3 with 2 RBIs. Tony Thomas played 2B and went 0-for-5. Jeremy Papelbon pitched the final two innings of the game giving up 0 runs on 0 hits, 1 walk, and 3 Ks. Blake Parker did not pitch. http://www.hawaiiwinterbaseball.com/statistics/box_score?gid=2008/09/27/honwin-waiwin-1 http://www.hawaiiwinterbaseball.com/articles/detail/136

Apologies. Daytona is 0.5 game behind Jupiter but still in first place. W L PCT GB Daytona 32 22 .593 0.5 Jupiter 36 25 .590 - http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=l_sta&lid=123&period=h2 I don't understand how a team with a higher winning percentage could be behind in the standings (no matter how many games they have played). Just tally up the win and loss differential and you'll come up with a tally of Daytona being a half game back. This type of thing only happens when there's such a disparity in games played (Daytona has played 7 fewer). That's interesting - then I wonder if the Daytona Cubs are miffed at all these games being cancelled instead of made up at a later date! It seems like it would be to their advantage to make those games up!