Wrigley Rat

Sorry guys, but Matt Craig is a minor league free agent and probably won't return to the Cubs! :(

But the player to be named later would be based on Hill's performance with the Orioles. So if he puts it together, we would get a better prospect than if he bombs. I hope the upside is big enough that it makes it worth it for us to trade him now rather than during spring training. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles0129,0,3367706.story

As much as I think Hendry is making Heilman feel like he has a shot at the 5th starter job, I really think he's in the second tier of guys vying for it. Heilman fills the void in the bullpen between Gregg and Gaudin/Cotts/Wuertz, etc. Heilman is a 7th inning setup guy - it's what he does best and what we need. Marshall could be that guy, but he is so much more valuable as a long reliever/spot starter/lefty reliever. I think the Cubs realize that you need to put players into roles that they are best suited for, not necessarily the roles that they wish they could have. Heilman is a reliever. Marshall looks like he could develop into a starter and may get a chance this year, but should not be handed the #5 job without having to win it. Samardzija needs a year at AAA to start if he ever hopes to be a starting pitcher. Gaudin looks to be a perennial long reliever/spot starter. I picture the year starting with a rotation of: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marshall (Marshall had a 3.24 ERA in spring training last year). The bullpen should look like this: Marmol, Gregg, Heilman, Wuertz, Cotts, Gaudin, and Vizcaino. David Patton would make the team if there is an injury, and there is always room for a surprise candidate like a Mitch Atkins (I don't think so though). My best guess is Wuertz gets traded towards the end of spring training (he was amazing in ST last year, but is unliked by Piniella). Patton gets returned to his old team. And Guzman or a dark horse candidate makes the team.

According to Inside the Ivy.

Interesting perspective - I had only been thinking of Heilman for our bullpen, but that could be true! I personally think Castillo's value today is more than Stevens' value, but I feel that Stevens will end up to be more valuable to a MLB team than Castillo would.

Once Wolf, Garland, and Looper sign with other teams, Hendry's bargaining power will be seriously reduced. He has gone on record as saying he'd like to sign another starter. I say he pulls off the Peavy deal within a week of one of those guys signing somewhere. Two things I wonder about: I wonder if the Cubs will still be required to pick up Peavy's option. And I wonder if there is enough time to take Vitters and Marshall out of negotiations. My guess is we pick up the option and trade one of Marshall or Vitters.

So I'm bored. What about some guesses as to who the Cubs will trade for Peavy when this finally goes down (which it will). I think Hendry does everything he can to hold onto Vitters and Marshall, so I see it looking something like this: 1) Garrett Olson (a target of Towers) 2) Welington Castillo (his stock will never be higher) 3) Jeff Stevens (a target of Towers) 4) Kevin Hart (loved by Towers) 5) Mitch Atkins (his stock will never be higher) 6) Jose Ascanio (been hyped a bit this off-season - maybe getting starter's innings at Iowa) For Jake Peavy If he is forced to give up Vitters or Marshall (definitely not both), I say we end up with a young pitcher in the Ceda mold who barely (if at all) touches the Padres top 30 prospects list and we keep Castillo, Atkins, and Ascanio.

I believe the Cubs will deal Cedeno and a RP for Aaron Heilman. He might have been (at least temporarily) taken out of talks for Peavy due to that. That said, I don't think that list of players above is the true "current" list of players agreed upon for Peavy. I think we might get a slightly better deal than that.

I thought I would back up my claim with the quote that got me there! :) From Bruce Miles. http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/1263

Some in the Cubs organization believe Ascanio will be a starter at AAA this year.

The reason I listed six players per team was because I took "break out season" to mean a solid enough season to have the player move up significantly on the Top Prospect charts. I feel that those 18 players will make improvements towards their status in our farm system. I suppose I could have only listed a couple players, but I kind of got into it!

Remember everyone that Henry Blanco can be traded by the Padres after June 15th! If Paul Bako or Koyie Hill aren't working out at that time, maybe it will become a Jake Peavy AND Henry Blanco trade to the Cubs for our entire farm system. :) Fun to think about!

Just so we have them all in one place: LHP Mike Stanton LHP Ed Campusano LHP J.R. Mathes LHP Matt Smith LHP Jason Waddell LHP Bill White RHP Esmailin Caridad RHP Andrew Cashner RHP Ken Kadokura RHP Rocky Roquet RHP Chad Fox RHP Angel Castro C Mark Johnson C Welington Castillo C Steve Clevenger SS Darwin Barney SS Andres Blanco SS/3B Erick Almonte 2B/SS Luis Rivas 2B/3B Bobby Scales OF Doug Deeds OF Jason Dubois OF So Taguchi

Breakout season: If at Tennessee: Jeremy Papelbon (as a starting pitcher) Marcos Mateo (as a closer) Blake Lalli (C/1B) Marquez Smith (3B - despite poor Hawaii season) James Adduci (CF) Ty Wright (RF) If at Daytona: Hank Williamson (as a closer) John Gaub (RP) Steve Vento (RP) Luis Bautista (1B/C) Jovan Rosa (3B/1B) Brandon Guyer (LF - needs to hit LHP better) If at Peoria: Dan McDaniel (CL) David Cales (RP) Tony Campana (CF) Kyler Burke (RF) Marwin Gonzalez (SS/2B) Carlos Perez © (Not sure about short season guys and don't want to rate AAA players.) Will struggle: Ryan Harvey (as an OF or P) Welington Castillo (moreso if in Iowa, but still to some extent at Tenn) Robert Hernandez (unless he repeats Peoria again) All SP's at Peoria (Coleman, Dolis, Bristow, Whitlock, Leverton, Carpenter, R. Acosta) Will have a breakout season if they can learn how to command their stuff: Donald Veal (he'll be returned) Andrew Cashner Chris Archer Jeff Beliveau (one of my favorite sleepers) Ryan Buchter Mark Pawelek (probably at Boise again) Chris Huseby (same as Pawelek)

Nice to know the Padres plan on competing this year. That postseason experience will really come in handy. http://www.sbrforum.com/Headlines/MLB/73136.aspx

I think Grant Johnson will be released at the end of spring training. I'd prefer to do this list after I know which level everyone has been assigned to. With my luck, my "sleepers" will all be double promoted and flail, while my "disappointments" will repeat a level and flourish!

One thing that I have noticed about BA is that their Top 30 Prospect lists has a good balance between AAA talent who is close to getting a chance in the majors and extremely young. unproven talent based on projection. When I make my Top Prospect lists, I prefer to de-value some of the lesser AAA talent mainly because WYSIWYG and there is little projectibility left. I also prefer to rank the unproven prospects lower than BA since they have yet to prove themselves in any way. For me, a Hak-ju Lee is ~20% lower on my list than BA's. And a Nate Spears is ~50% lower. That being said, I would rank a lefty relief pitcher like a Casey Lambert much higher than BA, because I feel that even a RP who helps the big league club out in the future is more valuable than a player who has proven to be average in AAA or a rookie ball player with a big upside but no proof.

Thanks for posting this. I enjoy reading these. Last year, I wondered a lot about some of the quotes coming out of the Cubs' management. It seemed like they were rushing a lot of players, but after everything settled out most players ended up pretty much where I thought they would. I think Fleita and others like to give the prospects confidence in moving up the ladder quickly, but if they don't show that they are completely ready in spring, then they are put back where they belonged. This year, there is word that Welington Castillo will start in Iowa (I thought he would start in Tennessee). I'm starting to believe it, but I would prefer he start in AA. Vitters in Daytona seems wrong since he is so young and hasn't had a ton of success yet. I can see sending a 23 year old from Boise last year being sent to Daytona this year, but otherwise I don't understand skipping levels altogether. I'd rather see someone dominate at the lower level and be promoted after a month of domination - what's the harm in that? If he is overmatched by being double promoted that he loses confidence, it could cost him the whole year or worse. I know some people disagree - I'm open to reading your ideas.

Looking at available free agents, which one of the following would you be interested in signing to a one-year contract to be our "7th inning guy"? (In order of my preference) - Dennys Reyes - Joe Beimel - Tyler Johnson - Ambriorix Burgos - Odalis Perez (he might consider relief pitching for a year?) - Aquilino Lopez I think any of these guys would be better than what we have in-house to slide in behind Marmol and Gregg, but ahead of Samardzija, Wuertz, Marshall, Gaudin, Cotts, Vizcaino, and the minor leaguers.

Chicago Cubs Signed: RHP Ken Kadokura, LHP Matt Smith, 3B Erick Almonte, SS Joseph Colon, OF So Taguchi The Cubs certainly won’t be lacking in Japanese veteran presence in spring training. Taguchi, 39, has emerged as something of a household name (in ways that Tsuyoshi Shinjo never did in this country) for his presence on three World Series teams, with the ‘06 Cardinals and ‘08 Phillies emerging as winners. And if you want to make a Mets fan wince, remind him of the ninth-inning home run Taguchi hit off Billy Wagner in Game Two of the ‘06 NLCS. But back to our regularly scheduled program . . . Kadokura, a 35-year-old reliever who was released by the Yomiuri Giants, logged just 12 2/3 innings in the Central League in 2008, posting a 3.55 ERA and a 16-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=2051#more-2051

At this point, I start to wonder about the Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg trade. I'm not one to complain about moves until we have a few years to evaluate, but here's what I think. 1) Jose Ceda must have really upset Cubs' brass either with his control, work ethic, attitude, whatever OR he has an injury that made the Cubs think twice about (they had said something earlier in the off-season about a player that Kevin Towers wanted from us who had some injuries, but didn't name him). 2) The Cubs must think that Kevin Gregg will do better with the Cubs than he did last season with extreme certainty (they had mentioned at the time of the trade that they saw something that could be tweaked that will help him improve). 3) The Cubs must really be avoiding signing people to expensive contracts in 2010 since the budget is so high already. To trade a young pitcher who throws in the upper 90's, whose rights you own for six more years, and has been young for all his levels for a player making $4.2 million for one season and isn't expected to be anything more than the 8th inning guy makes me wonder about the move. It seems like we could have gotten a free agent for that price (but might have cost more years). I do feel strongly that we needed an 8th inning guy/backup closer (some people devalue closers, but I don't). I also feel we need a good 7th inning guy which we don't currently have (look into Samardzija's splits - not good enough yet). After that, I think our bullpen is fine - lots of depth, long guys/short guys, etc. I'm wondering if Heilman could be the 7th inning guy - I think that's the plan going forward and I think I'm on board (depending on cost for Heilman and not using the guys earmarked for Peavy).

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/news/newstest.aspx?id=4204834 Financial terms not yet released.

Bill White pitched for Texas last year, he's smart signing with us, given our need for LH relief. If he can put something together, this is as good a spot as any for him to get an opportunity, especially an opportunity on a winning team. Not sure how likely that he'll "put something together", though. Last year for Texas: 11BB/1K. I can only imagine how intense the pressure must be for a guy like that, 29 years old, you've been bouncing around, you get a shot. I know it's not like the world series or whatever, but the pressure on a middle-aged 4A guy must be just incredible when they get an occasional short opportunity. Hardly surprising that when control is your problem in the first place, under that kind of pressure that it only gets worse. I agree that the Cubs provide an excellent opportunity for White. I just wonder how willing they would be to roster him, when they have had very few instances of rostering minor league free agents in the past. I think he will need to be amazing in spring training or in the minors to even get a look in Chicago. I do like hearing though that he has a 92-93 mph fastball and a "devastating" slider. Not many lefties throw consistently in the 90's. Unfortunately, his command has always been a problem, and he gets righties out slightly better than lefties.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090116&content_id=3746747&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

So Taguchi signed to a minor league contract.