To me, a trend has to be something more than just 2006 compared to 2005. I see trends when a guy has 2 or 3 straight improving seasons. Year-to-year changes are just one off comparisons, not trends. I think pitchers who make it into their 30's with their arms attached, can last a little past 32 before they decline. They are different than hitters. But there's a big range of types. There are lots of guys who make a splash onto the scene, but peak in their early 20's and never regain that stuff. I think a lot of that is because of health reasons. The problem, of course, is consistency with pitchers. There are very few truly reliable year-in-year-out performers. Anyway, I put Padilla on the top of the list of second tier guys long ago, and I've seen no reason to change that. I laughed at the idea that Suppan could get a 3/30 deal in this market just based off a good playoff game. But I'm not so dismissive of him now. The problem I see though, is there's a pretty long list of similar pitchers who completely disappeared in their early to mid 30's (Nagy, Helling, Astacio, Stottlemyre, Hentgen). It's a huge risk with such pitchers. I'd really like to see Padilla and Schmidt. I could live with Padilla and one of the lesser guys. But I'd hate to see them throw big money and Meche and Marquis, two guys with massive downsides who have not shown much on the upside.