toonsterwu

I absolutely love this trade. I've been on the Vizcaino bandwagon since his Yankees days (I think there's a post somewhere on Sickels site where, after his trade to the Yankees, I said I thought he was going to be better starting pitching prospect than Teheran). Yes, we could get him for Paul Maholm partly because he went under the knife, but this is an absolutely great gamble to make. No, it's not Dempster for Delgado (although last year, I did prefer Vizcaino to Delgado, but going under the knife changes the equation on value), but it's damn good.

Eh ... once upon a time, I would've been pissing and moaning about this trade (a righty that's only effective against righties is a middle reliever that's interchangeable unless he improves). But while bad luck can be utilized to explain some of Soto's issues, at the end of the day, the combination of low production and high cost makes this an okay move. I don't have any high expectations for Brigham, but okay, I get it. Castillo/Clevenger can probably be a decent enough combination.

Looks like Marco Hernandez is on a nice little roll. 5 game hit streak, double to start today. So far, over these 5 games, he's hitting .438 (4 games and today's 1/1). The better part about this little run so far is that he's only had 1 strikeout (granted, the no walks aspect isn't great either, and the lack of power, besides the double today, might suggest some luck (too lazy to work out the numbers right now), but the fact that he isn't striking out is a big plus.

I keep thinking that Pin-Chieh Chen might be a breakout candidate in Daytona next year. I've never been the biggest fan, but he's quietly had a good summer, and one thing of note is that he isn't nearly the slappy hitter that some thought he might be. He had one month (May) where he was pounding GB's at a high rate (also his worst month), but for the most part, he's around 50% with a healthy LD%. His power has shown well in the summer months, much better than earlier this year.

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4888556/does-zack-greinke-deal-put-pressure-on-texas Hypothetical question: If the Cubs finalize a Dempster for Delgado trade, and they were able to trade Garza for Olt + Top 15 ranked pitcher, and that's all we get out of Dempster and Garza (Delgado and Olt the primary pieces) would everyone consider that a disappointment, a push, or a good return? That'd be an unqualified success, IMO ... partly riding on the Delgado aspect, which no one could forsee as a possibility. I know the Rangers idea of Olt and an arm is drawing interest amongst people here, but if we could get the Dodgers to fork over Zach Lee, that'd be my preferred route, even if it'd be a touch riskier.

Hard for me to see them pushing Baez to Daytona this year. There's really no rush - it's only been around 200 AB's. There's also little things he can work on - consistency on defense, discipline on offense (although the flip side argument is that he might need to go up a level to work on his discipline, as the pitching in Low A just might not be good enough to challenge him to improve in that department). Add in that Alcantara doesn't seem primed for a bump to AA this year, and is a solid SS prospect in his own rights, and while Alcantara won't block Baez, I think there's enough reasons to not force the issue on Baez. I guess, if Alcantara gets a bump to AA (with Lake playing more 3rd), then I could perhaps see it, but I doubt it. I think Baez starts 2013 in Daytona and hopefully forces his way to Tennessee.

Well, first, it's the minors. 2nd, guys can have fluke games. But third, his K and BB rates are actually decent in AAA, but he just suffers from that one bad inning syndrome. He does have some big league ability in him. He did post a 3.64 xFIP last year (although that seems more an anomaly, as his xFIP this year, 4.69 is more inline with his other years).

The optimistic view is that the two packages are fairly close, and considering that this is a rental, that'd be a win for the Brewers. The optimistic view is that Segura can handle short well enough and be a better offensive player than Escobar (and his value is similar to Escobar's then), and that Hellweg/Pena will become better starters than Odorizzi (and hold similar value to the Odorizzi/Jeffress then). The flip side is that ... Segura might be more of a Darwin Barney, Hellweg might be a pen arm.

As a whole, it wouldn't be a horrible return. The Delgado rumors have probably ... jaded our views a bit, for lack of a better term. But the thing is, the Cubs have a bevy of righty pen arms in the upper levels ready (or close) for looks (and some may be left unprotected this winter). Lindblom isn't a dominant guy, IMO, that you say, hey, here's your closer for the next five years. He's a borderline closer, likely more of a setup type, IMO, and if it's Lindblom or gambling on a couple low level arms, I might prefer the latter.

and not exactly a dominant one at that (good, though). We have enough righty arms to audition for the future. I'd much rather take some stab in the dark on a low level high upside arm than Lindblom.

That's a big plus for us. I like Johnson a ton, but who's giving up 3 prime pieces for him? Heck, there aren't many organizations that can offer three prime pieces. Now, let's hope for some luck on Dempster and the Braves, and then see if the Dodgers/Rangers (and maybe the Blue Jays) can bid up Garza. Granted, Garza's health situation right now doesn't help, but let's hope.

If Atlanta comes crawling back and asking about Dempster (just positive thinking right now), I wonder if we might have to help Wren save some face after his public pronouncements. But even if it costs us a middling prospect, that would still be a good deal. The ideal situation, IMO, would be what it was when the Dempster/Braves mess starting - getting Delgado (even if we have to give up a little something something), and then seeing if the Rangers/Dodgers can bid up Garza. If the Rangers go for Johnson (still have a tough time seeing them meet the Marlins demand for 3 good young pieces, 2 I can see ... 3? Guess that comes down to how one defines good young pieces), then the Dodgers could be left with Garza, and the Dodgers seem all-in right now. If we could pull a Lee and another arm out of the deal, that would be a heck of a trading deadline.

Yeah, the headliner for one of the top couple pitchers in baseball is a 22 year old 2B with a sub-.750 OPS in the Texas league. I'm seriously baffled at why so many people view this as a great deal. Delgado for Greinke would be a good deal (Delgado for Dempster would be a great deal). Segura's decent, and maybe he sticks at short long enough for the Brewers to develop another option. But his ceiling still isn't great (never really understood the Baerga comp someone gave him once ... ). I get that Hellweg has a big fastball and has a promising slider. So did Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt, and a host of other arms through the years. Nice and intriguing, but the numbers this year haven't been great, and he's really going to have to take a big step up. Really don't know enough on Pena off the top. Just seems like a very middling deal to me, and yet, Brewers fans seem pleased, Angels fans are complaining about the cost of the package (granted, when teams give up prospects, there almost always seems to be a segment of the fanbase that is troubled by the cost), and enough others seem to support that his is a good deal.

Really? I think that's a pretty piss poor return for an ace like Greinke, even a rental. I'm not nearly as high on Segura as many, I guess. Hellweg and Pena seem ... decent, but nothing exceptional. Put it another way - I think they got 3 B, B- types, and for an ace like Greinke, I think this is an absolute steal for the Angels to not have to give up Cowart or Richards. Edit: I know they wanted to shoot for a middle infielder in this trade, and it's possible Segura was the best they could get, but still ... I just don't think this is a good return, even accounting for that factor. i think greinke being an "ace" is pretty debatable He does have ace stuff, and just glancing at fangraphs right now, his xFIP is 2nd amongst qualified pitchers this year. His 3.8 WAR is tied for third amongst qualified pitchers right now. SIERA is 2nd, tERA is 2nd. There's a lot of metrics that would argue that Greinke is one of the elite arms in the game.

And it's done. Supposedly. Brewers got Segura who was a top 60ish prospect coming into this season, John Hellweg (Angels #4 prospect) and Ariel Pena (Angels #9 prospect) for a two month rental of Greinke. 3 top 10 prospects from the Angels org with one of them being top 60ish overall. Kinda justifies the Cubs holding out for more from the Dodgers. Wait, how does this justify the Cubs holding out for more? Greinke's a far better talent than Dempster and both are rentals.

I know it's easy to take shots at Kaplan and Dempster right now, but I wonder if Kaplan's sources aren't ... if not from the organization, supporting TheoJed. I wonder if this isn't a shot at a) Trying to smooth things over for Dempster b) Letting Atlanta know Dempster's changed his mind a bit, through the media c) Shot at Dempster to let him know, we aren't budging unless the Dodgers budge, so you might need to open your options That said, silly season and I'm just spouting.

Seems like Brewers fans are pleased. Good for them. Eh. Still think you have to go for more ceiling in this type of deal. I mean, Segura isn't that much better than Barney (granted, Barney has value, but no one is going to suggest Barney as a centerpiece of a trade like this). I mean, it's not hard to imagine Barney having a good offensive year that resembles Segura's. The arms, I think, are being oversold a bit. Hellweg strikes me as more of pen arm long term, and I don't know enough on Pena off the top. Both guys seem like mid-rotation ceiling types, and if you have 2 mid-rotation ceiling arms, you'd be lucky if one panned out. It seems like the Brewers probably felt that they had some arm depth (4-5 decent arms in the system, but really, no great arm), and an ace on the staff already (Gallardo), so they could target needs. Since the only thing that matters is what matters for the Cubs, the positive side of the deal is that Atlanta struck out when they were rumored heavily in on Greinke. I don't know if they would give up a Bethancourt and more (just tossing Bethancourt out since the Rays are rumored looking at catchers) for Shields. They may have to consider Dempster again if Dempster shows a willingness to consider them as the deadline draws near.

More a side note, but the FSL should really be known as more of a neutral league than a pitcher's league, IMO, looking at the 2011 park factor data on BBTF.

I would easily take the chances on Delgado over those three. You try to shoot for ceiling in these types of trades, IMO.

Really? I think that's a pretty piss poor return for an ace like Greinke, even a rental. I'm not nearly as high on Segura as many, I guess. Hellweg and Pena seem ... decent, but nothing exceptional. Put it another way - I think they got 3 B, B- types, and for an ace like Greinke, I think this is an absolute steal for the Angels to not have to give up Cowart or Richards. Edit: I know they wanted to shoot for a middle infielder in this trade, and it's possible Segura was the best they could get, but still ... I just don't think this is a good return, even accounting for that factor.

I think McNutt is in the pen for good. Just my gut feeling, nothing really legitimate to base it on right now. That said, at this stage, his value as a SP just isn't all that high, and in the pen ... I have to think that a guy like Alberto Cabrera would rank ahead of him, and I don't see Cabrera in the top 10 of the Cubs system as of now (although he's close for me ... those are some dominant numbers he's put up this year, and he has the stuff to project as a closer type arm). After the top 10 ... well, the Cubs system is sort of a free-for-all after the top 8 or so, so you could make a case for McNutt in a number of places. My last extended stab had him in that 17-20 range, but I could see lower. I mean, here's a food for thought thing - out of the pen ... is Trey McNutt really that much better than say, Marcus Hatley? McNutt's ranking was always propped up by his starter potential, and without having heard reports on stuff out of the pen so far, even if we take a positive assessment and assume he can kick his fastball up a notch and tighten up his breaking ball, we're still talking a mid-90's guy with a good breaking ball. Sounds awfully close to Hatley, who can hit upper 90's.

You can doubt the truth of the narrative, but it seems to fit just fine to me. - Cubs agree to terms with the Braves - Dempster hems and haws, not wanting to close the door on LA with so far to go til the trading deadline - Braves say they're done as a way of saying "we're not going to ignore other options while Dempster hems and haws" - Cubs aren't able to agree with LA after days of trying, and Dempster relents on going somewhere besides LA Maybe Atlanta really had their feelings hurt about the ordeal and have zero interest in any Dempster deal anymore(which would be a really stupid thing for a Major League organization to do), or maybe after more time has passed they found a better deal for themselves. But the sequence of events isn't out of place to me. it was this line that didn't really make sense to me, but it might just be tricky wording by levine what does this even mean? "he'll consider any deals that the cubs present to him..... except he'll definitely veto all of them if it's not LA" Well ... if we stretch it out a bit ... could it be possible that the Cubs never got around to presenting him a deal before the word leaked out on the Atlanta thing, and Dempster summarily went to them and told them to redouble their efforts on LA. Another possibility could be that they never took the deal to Dempster, but to his agents, so Dempster was never presented with a deal. I'm stretching, but I've often found that there's usually some kernel of truths to most reports (from legitimate sources that is), however big or small. One wonders if the Cubs intent was to wait on this thing as long as possible and see if Dempster would eventually budge, hence why they weren't happy with the leaks on the Atlanta side. I'm mildly curious what the Dodgers are offering right now, if they won't budge on Allen Webster as of now.

I could see that. Another possibility - I could also see them thinking we kept Vitters at 3rd this year, but it doesn't look good, so let's shift him to LF in the fall, perhaps another AFL tour, and try to get rid of Soriano this winter. Edit: Typed this before noting SCS' post.

At worst, I think all three have to slot into that 11-20 range. The system doesn't exactly have that many high upside chips, so Wells/Rosario would seem to have a chance to make it on there. I think people somewhat forget how good Wells' May was (which makes the injury all the more disappointing, he was upping his K rate and becoming more consistent, would've been awesome to see if he could've kept it up). Whitenack's a bit safer to rank in that range, IMO, as he's pitching now and I still hear solid velocity reports on him, so you hope that consistency comes as he gets more work in. I mean, you look at those arms in comparison to say, the Beeler/McNutt types, and for ranking purposes, I'd much rather gamble on them, particularly Wells, who should be pitching by at least mid-season next year, barring something bad happening.

You know ... there's an argument to be made for Webster being more intriguing of a SP prospect than Delgado. Delgado's safer, on account of being more polished and being closer to ready. Tbh, when the whole Dempster talks began, I never thought we'd be in contention to get guys like Delgado or Webster. I was thinking more of the Garrett Gould types, a low level pitcher with upside.