toonsterwu
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Everything posted by toonsterwu
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Can't help but wonder if the Nationals are trying to set something up. Now, Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro additions can both be explained away as a team trying to make sure it has options in case it misses out on it's top options. Heck, if Starlin hits like he did the 2nd half of the year ... Still, to load up on middle infielders when your top trade chip is Carter Kieboom? As interesting as Kieboom is, the Nationals would likely fork him over gladly to get a big deal done. They seem superbly high on Luis Garcia, who has hit AA already, and Cole Freeman could reasonably be in the upper levels late in the year if they just needed a depth guy. I think the Cubs are dreaming on Robles, and I'd certainly be more open to a Kieboom deal provided the Nationals could find a better 2nd piece. At the end of the day, though, quality tops quantity in any KB deal, so I just don't see how it gets done unless a third party gets involved.
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I think that's very plausible, but as someone posted a couple weeks ago, it isn't hard to get under LT if you deal Quintana.
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Honestly, this might not be a fair comparison, but for some reason, I sort of think Trey McNutt with Spencer Howard. A guy that flashed raw upside (IIRC, there were some positive reports on McNutt's secondaries in A ball, enough so that IIRC, there was some debate here about Archer vs. McNutt). Physically, McNutt was a much bigger dude, but Howard has a better repetoire. I guess, short of it is, I want to see more exposure at the upper levels before I'm convinced. Total side note - didn't realize McNutt made it back to affiliated ball, AA/AAA with the A's. Good for him.
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To be very clear, my preferred scenario, assuming a long term need to get cut some payroll and getting some young talent as well, is something I mentioned recently, which is trading Darvish, who I believe, with the remaining market left, might be able to get enough interest where a team would take on the money and perhaps even offer some interesting talent. That should clear up enough space that the pressure to trade Bryant isn't there, and you can wait for a monster offer or take a run and hope for a little luck and revisit trading him at the deadline. None of the rumored deals are anywhere interesting when compared to the productivity that Bryant would offer, but it's more making the best of a bad situation. ______ I actually don't love Kieboom, but he should be a solid enough regular. All that said, Nationals Plan A is obviously Donaldson. Even if they miss on him, they'd probably need to figure out a 2nd base situation to be willing to trade Kieboom away, as Kieboom is penciled in as a starter at one spot next year for them already. Considering their recent history with Boras (keeping Stras but letting Harper/Rendon go), I don't know if they'd willingly go down the aisle again with another impending Boras FA unless the deal was too good for them to pass up. The problem with any Nationals trade, even in the hypothetical, is that after Kieboom (again, don't see them moving Robles at all, Kieboom, while unlikely, seems not that ridiculous that it can't be considered), it's pretty weak in the system, particularly arm side, unless you are really betting on development and upside with a guy like Jackson Rutledge. I'd love a lottery ticket gamble on Jeremy de la Rosa, though. I'm quite fascinated with how enamored the Nationals seem to be of him. ______ I know the Phillies are selling Spencer Howard hard, and he is coming off a good year. Heck, if I buy what the Phillies are selling, then he might be a better arm than anything the Braves would likely offer. I just don't know if I'm there on Howard yet. Still, mechanics look alright in some videos so if he really shows 2-3 consistent plus pitches, as the Phillies claim ...
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Oy, I just don't love the Braves prospects as much as others, I guess. I think out of Pache/Waters, one of them will likely be a solid MLB OF, but I don't love either guy. I'm not that huge on Austin Riley. Honestly, the positional guy I really sort of like in that system is Braden Shewmake. The pitchers are obviously talented, but I'm still a little bit wary of Ian Anderson. Tbh ... I still sort of like Kyle Muller. Mid-90's lefties are hard to find, but that command is a bit concerning. It's an interesting concept. It's probably as good a deal as you could get. Hard to see many teams topping that. Still ... honestly, any Bryant deal needs to be about talent and not position. Hard for me to see the Braves offering up both Wright and Anderson ... I could easily see them fork over Waters and Riley, but a deal of Waters/Riley/One Arm? That doesn't entice me, and quantity will only help a deal oh so much (that is, if they toss in other guys). I'd probably talk myself into accepting Waters/Anderson/Wright. Still sort of hoping on Phillies desperation to compete plus the fact that there's no guarantee they can get another guy to come as a FA after Trout resigned with the whole fan base pining for him. The arms aren't as good (heck, I don't particularly love any of their arms ... Maybe Medina would be my preference, but could easily see him end up in the pen), and that might be a sticking point for this FO based on the inability to develop said arms, but wishing on Alec Bohm is far more interesting to me than the Braves guys. Braves have the ability to put together a better overall package, unless the Phillies offered up say Kingery. Heck ... if the Nationals could find a way to trade for a young arm to pair with Carter Kieboom and another piece, I might even prefer that to the Braves potential packages (assuming no young MLB players are coming in Braves deal besides perhaps Riley). Dunno, the Braves guys just don't interest me as much as they probably should.
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2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
toonsterwu replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm mildly fascinated skimming through this entire discussion, or I'm a little bored up at 3am. My general thoughts on Eloy are: a) His approach always made me wonder if that K rate might bump up a little. I think this year is more a young bat getting tested in the bigs, but I recall reading somewhere that the scouting report on him in the minors was to attack him with high fastballs and soft away stuff. Well, MLB pitchers are going to be a lot more refined. b) I once thought Eloy would be at least a slightly below average RF. It looks like he's stuck in LF. In terms of value, that's not good for him. Supposedly, the arm has regressed so dramatically that he may be more a DH guy than a regular LF. I gotta think they can get him on some sort of program to build some arm strength. With that size, it's hard to see him getting better as he ages. c) Back on offense ... I think the thing that you hope on in regards to Eloy becoming better than say Meadows or Soler, offensively, is that, by most accounts, that bat speed for Eloy is at another level. Don't get me wrong, both those guys have solid bat speed, but most reports seem to suggest that Eloy has maintained that next level bat speed that made him stand out. d) If you are betting on Eloy, the bat speed, plus the fact that he has steadily improved and learned, are positive indicators for him. Keep in mind, when he came over, he really wasn't that polished - he was more an exciting toolsy upside guy (I mean, Gleyber was more polished than him when they entered the system). By most accounts Eloy has worked hard and kept improving. ____ If I'm betting, I think Eloy will improve offensively, to the point where Eloy probably has a couple monster, elite offensive seasons, and may have some monster offensive seasons that he could be an elite player within that year, but the limitations defensively will likely significantly blunt his value to the point where it's debatable if he's a consistently elite player, if that makes sense (totally different players, but think Bryce Harper's WAR's ... I could see Eloy having such a monster offensive season, like Bryce's 2015, where his defensive value just isn't that big of a concern). Now, if he ever gets Juan Soto discipline, then who knows. -
2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
toonsterwu replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don’t think we’re getting like Jo Adell for Q, but Kluber was hurt and really, really horsefeathers last year, makes $7-8 mil more than Q this year and is 33/34. I think they could get a fringe top 100 guy for Q or like a newer version of Monty. Griffin Canning from the Angels would be a really nice get for him, IMO. If we could get Griffin Canning for Quintana, I'd do it immediately. Anything's possible, but I think the chances of getting a young MLB ready starting caliber arm with some ceiling for a mid-rotation veteran with one year left on his deal ... I mean, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Griffin Canning had a better season than Quintana next year. ____ I like Matt Boyd. Don't know how hard I'd go after him, but he's got what, 3 years of cost control left? Worst case, he's a solid end of the rotation lefty that can eat innings. If the slider development and consistency is real ... then you got a solid mid-front of the rotation arm on a cheap deal. I don't know I'd give an arm and a leg ... but I'd be curious what it would cost. -
2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
toonsterwu replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The dynamics are obviously a bit different, but if Corey Kluber could only get some A ball lottery ticket offers, outside of their final deal, I really question how much we could get for Quintana. As with all trades, all it takes is one team, but clearly, the organization, whether we like it or not, is trying to get the payroll in some order. _____ All that said, I think things do shape up well for the Cubs if they wanted to move an arm and clear some payroll. There's still enough pitching on the market that teams have options. ___ Is Boyd Matt Boyd? I guess the idea of Detroit moving him is what, selling him early to maximize return? I'd be curious what it could take to land Boyd. -
Ha my bad misread the contract last night.
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If the only goal is getting under, then yeah, that could work. If getting under is only one goal ... and there are secondary goals (like staying competitive next year, rebuilding the system a bit, cleaning up the sheets for the future a bit), then things are slightly different (deleted original comments totally misread quintana contract last night.)
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Honestly, with the way the pitching market has fallen ... I keep thinking that, if the goal is to get under ... that there might be a chance we could move Darvish. Angels still have a boatload of money to spend, still haven't upgraded the rotation, and the remaining money on Darvish's deal isn't that bad (4/81). No idea what 12 teams he has on his no-trade, though, but that said, it's a west coast club that was reportedly in on him when he was a FA. Instead of paying the money down (if the goal is to lose money), maybe you couple that with a Willson Contreras and see if the Angels would fork over some sort of Brandon Marsh-led package. In my mind, it makes some sense for both sides. _______ I just have a hard seeing the White Sox move Luis Robert in any deal. In general, I still doubt any team would fork over an elite prospect for a one year gamble. Two years would be a different issue. About the only team that I could see get that desperate might be the Phillies.
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I have my doubts the Nationals would fork over Victor Robles in any Kris Bryant trade, particularly after what's happened the last two years, with Harper/Rendon leaving. I do think Robles hits more, enough that he isn't a negative offensively. That said, the Nationals are probably content with stopgaps, as talk is they truly love their young positional assets in the system, with some belief that Jeremy de la Rosa could be in the majors in the next year, and with guys like Luis Garcia, Yasel Antuna, and Israel Pineda, to go along with Carter Kieboom. One quick note on Soto vs. Robles (not that it's really a battle) - Nationals were always in love with Soto's hitting ability, but IIRC, he was injured his first year, and Robles was more developed. Robles was looked at as more a 5-tool guy, but pure offensive ability, I think most would say Soto's ceiling was always higher. I recall news articles noting how aggressive the Nationals were in trying to lock up Juan Soto before he was known. Total side note - Nationals are a hard team to make a Bryant package if you are expecting a high level, close to ready talent, or a young major leaguer. If it drops a notch below that for the standard bearer, then I think it's a different game, as there's enough lottery tickets to dream on. ________ Without knowing how many years KB has to FA, I still think it's unlikely to expect any sort of "proven" young major leaguer with some upside. I'm more inclined to think a desperate team may fork over a high level prospect (like Alec Bohm) than a Robles type, and even then, I'm not so sure. ________ Truthfully, my feeling is if we deal Bryant, then we might as well consider tearing it down a bit, regardless of what type of quality Bryant brings back. The "core" going forward would be Contreras/Baez/Hendricks (as Rizzo is getting too old to be considered part of the core to me), and Contreras may be on the move as well.
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Still think the offense needs another bat, but with Adell likely getting time in CF (basically what we hope Brennan Davis can become) and Rendon, the offense jumps a lot. Still think another bat in there would give them better depth and consistency when Ohtani isn't DH'ing. Not sure how much Upton and Pujols can offer. A couple starters, and the fact that they "missed" on Cole might end up being a blessing in disguise. They have a strong enough system that they could potentially land a FA starter and make a trade. I guess I could see Adell for Contreras, as they have Marsh close to ready, and Jordyn Adams developing.
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Anyhow, with Rendon off the table, we'll probably see soon enough whether there's any legs to this. Donaldson should move fast - I'm guessing Nationals nab him and announce it soon. Phillies and KB, which was mentioned above, makes sense, as they are desperate to push forward and Alec Bohm probably needs a bit more time. With Harper and a big-spending owner, they would have as good a chance to keep Bryant around (would sort of make me chuckle if Harper and Bryant ended up uniting there). Still, I have a hard time seeing anyone offer an arm and a leg with Kris Bryant headed to FA, and it's almost impossible to imagine Kris Bryant not testing the waters. Bohm and Kingery (and Howard? I've got a hard time seeing the Phillies offer two, let alone all three, but maybe they are that desperate. Don't really love the arms they could offer, tbh, but that's because I'm not huge on any of those guys (not saying they aren't good arms). They are the only team that makes some sense (in terms of desperation) and potential fit for Cubs needs (some young arms, some pen arms, a useful bat).
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I don't particularly think they will trade Bryant (mainly because what the Cubs will likely want (an appropriate return for a in-his prime MVP caliber player), it's hard to see teams giving it to them since the chances of Bryant signing long-term before FA seem fairly slim), but I'm always fine with an organization keeping it's options open, particularly with the Cubs in a mild rut the last two years. I still say exploring the Anthony Rizzo market is the way to go, however tough it may be, considering position, likely return, what's remaining on the deal. What I'd sort of be intrigued with is moving Rizzo and seeing if we can cobble together a deal for Trey Mancini and Mychal Givens (and moving Mancini to first). I've got no real feel for what Mancini/Givens would cost, though.
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Yeah, they tend to go heavy on the deferred route. There's also some small deferrals on Anibal Sanchez. It's risky and only works if you have a farm system to replenish the depths. While I was definitely in the "they need to resign Bryce" group, and they made a decent, albeit, deferred effort ... things worked out well for them. This was supposed to be a bridge year of sorts - see if Dave Martinez can manage, see if Soto/Robles are ready). Now, I guess I'll be foolish again and say they need to resign Rendon, but that's because unlike Bryce last year, they really don't have, on paper, a replacement lined up for Rendon, either a young bat with middle-of-the-order offensive potential and/or a 3rd baseman. I guess they could consider Carter Kieboom at 3rd, and if Rendon leaves, maybe that's an option. If Rendon returns, though, they look like they can keep this run up for several more years. Robles is excellent defensively, and should improve offensively. If Rendon returns, then Carter Kieboom might slide in at 2nd. The system isn't bad. It's just not top heavy anymore, but there's some close-to-ready arms (Will Crowe, Sterling Sharpe ... maybe Matt Cronin in the pen) and with Kieboom, a close to ready potential positional starter. Drew Mendoza may be in line to be the first baseman of the future ... but that probably isn't until 2021. The exciting thing is the upside in the lower levels - with Yasel Antuna, Israel Pineda, and especially, Jeremy de la Rosa, they have three huge upside positional assets. I guess Luis Garcia is a big upside guy who was pushed fast, enough so that I'm not sure what to think of him. On the pitching side, they turned an electric, but inconsistent, arm into a decent starter this year (Joan Adon ... still think he's pen material long run, but obviously, get him work as a starter). Andry Lara has huge potential, as with recent picks Jackson Ruteledge and Mason Denaburg. I don't know what to think of Tim Cate ... could be a fast mover ... best comparison would be young Rich Hill maybe. Of course, there's Seth Romero floating around in the return from TJ category. Many of them will flame out, but considering their recent developmental history, some of those low level upside guys are going to be fascinating follows, particularly when de la Rosa has been loosely comped to Juan Soto in terms of readiness. In short, there's enough to fill in the gaps and deal with all the deferred money, and enough to look forward to, which is all you can really ask for out of an organization in the midst of their run now and having graduated quality guys recently.
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It's funny, I've spent years arguing that this front office shouldn't be glorified, and yet, there were no major moves that screamed out as being horrible at that immediate point in time (I supported Heyward signing, didn't love the Quintana trade but value was fine for a guy on that contract coming off some very solid years, Chatwood signing looked fine when it happened). In some respects, the stagnation is a mix of FA moves gone bad and an over-reliance/trust on their young assets. Yet, no matter what, here we are, in 2019, with the season over, a mismatched good but not great roster, and a farm system that's ... betting on high upside low level talent, which almost all organizations have (I think Marquez might be special ... really love Brennen Davis, but really got to see how he does in AA to really know ... I'm still not sure how excited I should be on Nico Hoerner. Amaya looks like a potential top tier starting catcher, but it looks like it's a few years down the line. Honestly, the guy I'm really excited about might be Kohl Franklin, but that's several years down the line as well). I still feel like something major needs to be done. They can keep cobbling it together - that is, bringing back the horses and keep making a run at things. A little luck, and this is a playoff team. After all, the main 4 (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras) is still excellent. That said, does this core group, as currently constituted, look like a team that could be a strong WS contender? It's debatable. I mean, buying FA pen arms comes with sufficient risk. We could arguably use another bat, a good SP, and with so much money being spent already, it's hard to see huge FA outlays, particularly when there are extensions coming, and the chances of moving either Heyward or Darvish is slim (and in Darvish's case, don't really want to move him). I'm of the opinion nothing should be off the table. Much as I've grown to like Rizzo, he might be our most movable asset that could net a high quality return, at a position that they should be able to find some production. Has to be the absolute right deal, and I'm not particularly sure what that is. I'd ponder shopping Contreras as well Of course, you move either Rizzo or Contreras, you really need another big bat as well. Darvish/Lester/Hendricks is a solid enough three to the rotation, but they need some help. You could roll Quintana back, but a part of me wonders if Quintana, with only one year left, might be able to fetch a nice return on the open market. Giving Chatwood a chance at the 5th starter job is fine, but he needs a lot of competition. I'm of mixed opinion on Alzolay's future. I mean, if his competition is Chatwood for the 5th job, one could see Alzolay winning it, and he could develop into a mid-rotation arm, but that assumes time and improvement. That said, he looks to have late inning ability now, and grooming him as a 7th inning type with the hopes of eventually replacing Kimbrel sounds like a potentially good idea that could also help the club now. Don't know. This FO did what it needed to do - it won a title. Now, they've got to avoid some of the consistent inconsistency at their previous stops.
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Hultzen finally makes it; guy who looks at cameras DFA'd
toonsterwu replied to Post Count Padder's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm biased, but Hultzen's start against South Carolina in the CWS was one of the more impressive starts, at any level, that I'd ever seen. It's been a long time, but IIRC, he struck out 8 of the first 9 batters, while throwing up and being sick in between innings. He thoroughly dominated a South Carolina lineup that was pretty solid. Anyhow, no reason, assuming he stays healthy, that he can't stick as a key aspect of the pen. His stuff should be good enough to be a specialist, and honestly, if his fastball velo gets sharper, there's no reason he can't be a potential late inning guy. It's hard to see him ever get back into rotation duty ... the amount of work he would have to log to get back to that level is ... at this stage in his career ... probably unlikely. Not impossible, but he'd have to be monitored closely, so unless he goes to Tampa or some place where they might be amenable to having him slowly log innings, it's just hard to see. -
Fascinating moves by the DIamondbacks. They give up Greinke and Jasrado Chisholm, a personal favorite that had stalled badly this year, and add a good arm in Zac Gallen, plus some interesting prospects. Honestly, I'm floored the Marlins gave up Gallen for just Jasrado Chisholm, considering the year Chisholm has had. The development of Perdomo lessened the significance of Chisholm. With the way Pavin Smith, a personal favorite, has badly faltered, Seth Beer certainly has a path to the bigs as the first baseman there. I think Bukauskus is a pen arm, but Martin looked intriguing. You factor in clearing money off the books, and it's really a fascinating few moves for the DIamondbacks.
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Cubs get Castellanos for Lange and Richan
toonsterwu replied to itisallpartoftheplan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If things are so hammer tight on the budget, then its up to the FO to make some decisions on how to reallocate resources. We can go PTR all day long, but it is what is for now and no amount of wishing and hoping will change that. Thing is, in terms of individual moves and actions, I haven't found much that I can criticize, much as I've long said we shouldn't be too in love with the names running things. Like this Castellanos trade ... as ... unexciting ... as Castellanos is. we're giving up Lange and Richan. For all the Hendricks in the world, there's 5 more that failed, so giving up Richan types should never be a big deal if there's a chance of improvement of some sort. Lange is in the ... who cares ... range ... although I do wonder if someone can fix him up and he can ramp it up as a useful pen arm for a couple years. I tend to be more curious what Tony Kemp can bring, and find that a lot more intriguing, in the long term and short term, if he can find some sort of rhythm ... but that may require regular PT which I'm not sure he'll get. That said, TT touched on this idea that we are bleeding prospect capital, and it is troubling. When you couple that with a farm system that hasn't developed all that well in the last couple of years, plus a major league team thats good, but has noticeable holes ... it is a troubling consideration. Look, by itself, there aren't any moves that I really thought was that bad at the time - I even said, pre-trade, that I'd be stunned if the Cubs put in Jimenez and Cease that year, but for Quintana, on that contract, it made sense. Can't change history, and I'm not going to get upset about any asset lost this year, but to effectively right the ship and balance out the budgetary issues they have, they have to do better in the farm and provide a lifeline to the bigs. I applaud what they did this deadline - instead of trying to fix multiple holes, which wasn't likely, they focused on one aspect. Now, it's about hoping to get hot at the right time. In the offseason, I'm hoping for something bold ... although I have no idea what that might be. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-27-19
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I think Ademan has been one of the bright spots this year. Love that he seems to be walking more and controlling it a bit better. I'm of mixed opinions on whether or not they should find a way to send him up to AA later in the year ... a part of me is curious (I mean, only so interested I can get on Gioskar Amaya and Vimael Machin), the other part of me thinks he's so young that letting him stay at A+, succeed, and work on things would be best. Dunno. Admittedly, part of it has to do with Nico as well. So haven't paid attention - is that a permanent move to the pen for de la Cruz or temporary? Not that I feel that much one way or another, but Lange being what he is ... I know better than to get too excited ... but Brennen Davis' start does catch an eye. Curious how those numbers look in another 100 AB's. Looks more advanced and disciplined than I expected. -
Tracks are individual but McLeod’s comments read like they want to move pitchers at a more aggressive pace if/when possible Seems like an odd group to push aggressively if utilized as starters. I guess I could see Burgmann move relatively fast ... not hard to see him chew up A ball hitters if his curve is that quality. Dunno ... McAvenue feels like the guy to dream on in this draft, but would prefer they take time with him to get him work as a starter. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out I guess.
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on the other hand... cashner got us rizzo (and i think chris carpenter got us theo, lol), so.... win? Hey, the draft's to get talent to use, so we used it and sure ... that can count as wins. That draft also did produce Josh Harrison, Jay Jackson (who's seen some times in the bigs), Ryan Flaherty, Jeff Beliveau, all guys who saw times in the bigs, so it wasn't a total disaster, but dreams were a bit higher. That's the risk of a pitching heavy draft. It also produced my favorite minor league name ... Rebel. Rebel Ridling.
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Draft vaguely reminds me of our 2008 draft (Cashner, Shafer, Chris Carpenter, Justin Bristow early on). I actually liked that draft at the time, so I'll reserve judgment on this one, but time obviously hasn't made that class look all that great. I'm just curious what their plan is with all these arms in terms of timeline ... are they going to go slow and work them slowly up the ladder, stretching them out? I mean, we're slowly getting some arms into the upper levels, so it's hard to see these draft picks squeezing guys out of spots out that fast.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-23-19
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Having not followed much in a long time ... I'm still intrigued with Swarmer. Not sure what he is long run, but with that change-up, sure feels like he'll get some run in the bigs. Didn't one of the sites this winter compare him to Trevor Richards? Considering where we got Swarmer ... if we get a useful starter out of him ... not bad. A decent starter's arsenal, but when speaking of guys with that height and a good change, I do sort of think Derek Lowe (who arguably had a starter's arsenal as well), albeit, Swarmer, even filling out, comes no where close to Lowe's size. I'd like to see Tyson Miller move up a level this summer to see how the stuff plays against the more veteran competition in AAA, since one of the reports said his control was better than his command. Really looks like a solid start to the year for many key prospects. Marquez certainly jumps out, Nico was certainly impressing before getting hurt. At least Ademan is holding his own with the bat so far. Still wonder if Steele is better off in a Zach Britton-esque, short relief work dynamic, where his fastball can play up more, although it's way too early to shift him off starting. Gotta love Nelson Velazquez hitting so far, albeit those K's are worrisome, but there's time. Curious what the plan is with de la Cruz internally ... he's averaging 5+ innings, which is really better than what I expected. I'm sure there's some disappointments, but I haven't been following, but when one of the disappointments at first glance is Andy Weber struggling in A ball (and despite being a UVA fan, I sort of wondered about Weber) ... that's a good start to the minor league season for a minor leagues that needed a jump-start.

