toonsterwu

Still don't love Appel. I haven't followed that closely this year, but he just never dominated in the past the way a guy his caliber should, and I keep thinking about how he didn't dominate against Rice to start the year. That said, I'm not complaining if he's our pick, just don't love him. I think Bryant will likely be a good hitter, but for the Cubs, if there's an arm of close enough value, I think you go with the arm (unless the Cubs grade him as an elite hitter), particularly since Bryant isn't a lock to stay at 3rd. As lackluster as this draft is, I'd probably put Manaea/Gray/Appel (probably that order) over Bryant. Shipley seems like the hot name. Don't know much about him, other than, IIRC, he's fairly athletic for a pitcher. If the stuff Aaron Fitt said (mid-upper 90's fb, plus-plus change, average to plus breaking ball) holds through the end of the year, putting him in the mix at 2 wouldn't be out of the question. Keeping wondering if a HS arm emerges to catch their fancy. Doesn't seem like anyone really fits right now, though.

If Bruno stays in the infield, as it seems, he looks to have a good shot to break with Daytona, playing some sort of super-util type of role. I guess the push down effect could move him to Peoria, but I doubt it (it'd be hard for him to get regular PT (or someone else would find it tough), unless you moved him to a semi-regular OF role). The push down effect may slide DeVoss/Torreyes back to A+, but Bruno's ability to play multiple spots should still make him a good fit for finding a role in Daytona to start the year.

Super ... not excited, but intrigued, with this weekend's matchup of UVA vs. NC State. UVA"s first real test of the year (nothing against Clemson, but UVA's owned Clemson for awhile now). A very young UVA lineup and staff going up against a talented Wolfpack squad. Last year had the excellent Rodon/Kline matchup, but Ogburn shut down UVA last year. A lot of solid 2014 draft talent being matched up. The games being at UVA should help, but personally, I think State might be a better team. That said, UVA plays solid, sound fundamental baseball.

I might change my approach to my votes for the final few picks, picking the best guys that have a chance to be picked rather than just who I think is the best option. Right now, only have 1 pick down - Matt Loosen. Let's leave aside that he was on the BA top 30. Screw that. Forget about it. He's a college arm with 3 (4 if you think that's two different breaking balls) decent pitches and solid fastball velocity. There's enough positive performance, and it's a justifiable move to AA that's likely in store. I find it hard to not get him into the top 50. Granted, Dae-Eun Rhee looked far more intriguing after 2011, and he's probably going to be off the list, so it's not like I've been jumping for excitement on Loosen, but the raw pieces left seem ... too raw or without the top level upside, and the upper level "closer" guys seem, IMO, to not have enough upside. There's a chance ... well ... at least, one could envision Loosen as a late inning pen option. My initial preferences are Marra/Chen, but I doubt I see enough support on them so I'll wait on my last two votes. Couple quick comments - Rusin - I've always liked him enough ... but I don't feel like it's fair to vote for him based off this spring. That didn't happen for most of the picks at the start (judging them off this spring). Off of last year, Raley would be the lefty I would vote. Realistically, the gap between the two is rather slim. DeVoss - Mildly curious about this surge of support for DeVoss. I actually lump DeVoss/Chen together as guys that I wonder if they could have a ini-breakout, offensively, in FSL. That said, with all indications that he can't play 2nd (a part of me still wonders why DeVoss wasn't moved to CF and Chen kept in the MI at 2nd, granted, there were reports that Chen just didn't adapt to 2nd and looked more natural at short (I believe AzPhil said this once), but you figure time might've helped if he looked that natural at 2nd), I'm just a bit surprised at this surge of support for him (granted, 3 isn't a huge surge, but at this stage of the voting, it's a pretty big amount).

Had Alcantara maintained his early season performance, I think there would've been a decent chance that he would've gone up to AA at some point. That said, everyone takes a back seat to Baez. _____ I sort of wonder about Valbuena in the 2 hole. Well, it's more I liked the idea of Rizzo/Castro/Soriano in the middle of the lineup in some fashion. Valbuena sees a fair amount of pitches (4.23 P/PA last year) and he'll take his walks. It isn't ideal with him in the 2 hole, but that's the only thing about the lineup that caught my eye.

Sorry if I made this a little more difficult Raisin, but I'm just not a big believer in ranking Saunders here (just not enough for me to vote for a guy like that in the top 50), so I'm switching over from Contreras to Hendricks, which forces a temporary tie between Hendricks/Saunders. If at some point, Contreras has surged ahead, he is still my preferred pick of the three.

I'll switch over to 22. On my personal list, he's actually at 21, but I ended up moving Whitenack a tick ahead as well. That said, I can buy an argument for Peralta over Whitenack on starting ceiling and higher pen potential. That temporarily breaks the tie and gives 22 a temporary 1 vote lead, although with so many votes spread out, davell's method may still make the most sense.

That probably wasn't the best phrasing. I was focusing on long-run starting potential, and hence the noted for the third pitch. I should've, for the comparison, gone with - At a similar age/stage, Cabrera's fastball was better (by a tiny amount probably), and his slider was more consistent. - On the other hand, Peralta's change-up is ahead (even if we discount those comments from Towers, what I vaguely recall of Cabrera's change-up in Daytona was that it was pretty bleh, and Peralta at least has a usable one)

I could be mistaken right now, but I think Contreras signed as an IF, but they moved him to catcher. I voted for him not because I love him, but because I'm not enthused with the other choices (I actually changed one of my original votes over to Contreras to try and get this runoff, but again, more because I'm not enthused with Hendricks or Saunders). As a total side note, I think, for safety's sake, we should go to 51. Seems to be a good chance we get there before final cuts, and so we should give ourselves some space in case something happens with Rondon (though I expect him here). I don't really care if we go further, but at a certain point, some votes will likely be colored by what happened this spring (for example, prior to this spring, I doubt many would've voted for Rusin ahead of Raley, but Raley hasn't gotten much discussion).

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Peralta but excited only because of the potential he offers, not that I really buy into Peralta developing into a stud starter. I think he's a bit ahead of Cabrera at the same stage, with a better third pitch, but he has a lot of work to do in regards to consistency on his slider and change, and he has to sharpen his command. Betting money would still be more on a late inning arm, but the potential is fascinating. Ranking him in the 22/23 range (willing to switch mine to 22 if 3 votes will give a clear win there, rather than some murky 2 vs. 9 1 vote ties) is an upside nod, an acknowledgment of his improved stuff this year (he's the only one from that crop of Latin American arms that really made it ... Amaury Paulino, who some argued was better, is still working his way back, Willengton Cruz is long gone, and Luis Liria's stuff declined), with credit given to flashes of ability in the low levels and hope that "this time" it works. It's not a nod to how much I believe in his potential to become a good starting pitcher. I have hope, but not a ton, in that regards. As a total side note, Peralta is bigger than that listed 180 ... so physically, I hadn't realized it until looking it up, he's actually fairly similar to Cabrera, size wise.

craig, I get the concerns on Peralta (he really might be more Alberto Cabrera - not physically, but just a guy in the lower levels that looks to have the potential to start, but is never consistent enough (although stuff wise, there's some similarities between the two)), but my 2 cents on it is that he's ... shown something at full season ball, and shown the potential to have two plus pitches. While McNeil/Arias might show similar or better upside (very debatable), neither has done anything in full-season, and hence, why I have Peralta a clear notch ahead of that grouping. On paper, his combination of level, adequate performance, and upside seems to put him more in the mix with the arms in the mid-20's.

Raisin ... man we think alike on some things. 22 was the number I looked at as well, but ... that's more because I'd have Whitenack ahead. I have him around 20 on my own list. I like Peralta better Loux. A lot of you are far higher on Loux than I am, though, so I imagine that, if we go by votes, Peralta will come in lower. That said, Peralta's ceiling is that much higher. A mid-90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus potential, and if Kevin Towers is to be believed, a very good change-up (there was an article on mlb.com about that). Now ... admittedly, a lot of that is based on the high end, and I don't ever anticipate a player hitting all the high notes ... but still ... his ceiling is that high. As for Whitenack, while I think Peralta's ceiling is higher, I think if Whitenack's consistency is back, he'll be ready to help far sooner, and Whitenack at his best has more than end of the rotation potential.

Don't particularly care for either 3. In a wait and see mode on Contreras' bat. Not completely sold that, stuff wise, I should care that much about Hendricks as compared to say, Loosen, or versus some of the lefties. As for Saunders, there's certainly some production, but skill wise, I'm still in a "prove to me you are more than a utility guy" mode right now. If he produces another year, and produces with some pop, I'd feel a bit more comfortable about giving him top 50 consideration. Of those three, though, Contreras not only seems to have the highest ceiling/value, but he might also have the highest floor (if his defense is as good as suggested). As such, he gets the nod for me here.

Can honestly just pick random names and I could probably buy a case for it. Still went with Loosen and Chen, and as for the 3rd ... uh ... I'm leaning Marra as of now, but could buy de la Rosa, maybe Torrez I guess. Hendricks/Raley/Rusin ... I could see cases for them. Heck, I could buy Rhee as an option as a pen arm.

Honestly, that placement makes me think that Pierce Johnson is going to start in Tennessee, which, honestly, for a college arm, isn't something that should be surprising. That might mean his breaking ball is showing as well as some suggested (which could mean that almost everyone, including the pubs, (except uh, Rob?), might have under-ranked him a tiny bit. For some reason, I thought we released Matt Spencer late last year. At first glance, nothing else really stands out on placements right now. Oh wait ... our catching depth stinks, but we knew that. Oh, and I sorta agree with craig. Not seeing Rosario working with that grouping is a bit bothersome. Maybe he's just sidelined for a bit and will join them, but it is a troubling sign.

I think we have a good system. In a year ... it could be a great/elite system. Still ... while I like our guys, every system has similar guys to most of the above listed. On the arm side, you have soft-tossing lefties. Raley was ranked higher once because there was some hope he would develop a bit more, stuff wise (add a tick more velocity, etceteras ... although, out of college, some folks did note that they didn't think Raley would add velocity, and they ended up right). From the right side, Loosen/Carreno are righties without plus stuff currently and without an elite fastball to work off of. Loosen's age plays against him in ranking, IMO. I don't have a BA or BP subscription, so I can't directly compare Top 30's and am too lazy to dig around the internet to see if some exist. But using Sickels "others" section for his lists for now, taking the Orioles, would any of those arms definitely rank ahead of a Bobby Bundy? I'd put them in roughly the same range. How about Tim Berry? Those are borderline top 30 guys. You can go organization by organization and find similar arms from either a production or a stuff standpoint. If you asked me, yeah, maybe I'd take some of our guys because I know them better. I imagine, fans of other teams would feel the same way (and Theo basically said something along those lines as well, so we know teams often place too much emphasis on guys they know). As for the positional guys, Saunders is ... a unique case, I guess. One wouldn't think of him, skill-wise, as a top 30 candidate for any list, at least, not until he performs in higher levels. I'm not sure there's a Contreras or Marra in every organization, but there are some, and the gist is that both are guys that hold some promise, and one could make arguments on low level guys like that in many organizations. I'm just not nearly on this Hendricks train that seems to be going on right now, so I don't know what to say there, but in general, I view him, loosely, in a similar clumping as Loosen/Carreno. This isn't to say those guys wouldn't make some top 30 lists. It all comes down to who does the writing (and there are probably couple other names that can fit in that group). I'm just not sure we should be that excited about our 40-50 guys to think that they could make half the top 30 lists. Let's take one of the worst systems out there and pick some names. Would you definitely, without a doubt, rank all our arms over hard-throwing young Brandon Hardin of the White Sox system? Would any of those arms definitely rank over Deunte Heath? What about Santos Rodriguez? I might take some of our guys over those, but I don't know if I would call it as locks that I would rank all those arms over them, and all three failed to make Sickels top 20.

Andreoli is more ... James Adduci. He just doesn't have the plus range or speed to really draw the Campana comparison, IMO.

Okay, you know that's the type of statement that's going to make me bite and ask ... who are you referring to as guys who would make it on "half the teams in the league top 30 lists"? I can think of a couple guys who would probably show up on some ... but on half? _____ As for this vote, I went Loosen, Chen, Hatley. With Chen, I just wonder if there's a bit more ... power consistency ... once he's out of the MWL (again, not expecting a power surge ... just more consistency, maybe a slight uptick). If so, here's a guy with a good approach, good D, and if there's any uptick or power consistency, he's actually fairly intriguing in that 4th OF/fringe CF starter way. Factor in age/level, and that's why I'm considering him around here.

I hate tablet typing so short response. I don't disagree with the general report on Loosen. 95 is higher than I had for him (heard 92, 93, but could buy him peaking at 95). Said in the last vote that I could buy the beeaking ball flashing above avg. Potential (he threw two different types of breaking balls, but I could never tell if it was two diff pitches, or something else.). It's possible his breaking ball consistency improved late, but there were spotty stretches. I actually like Loosen enough, but it's still a guy without a plus pitch and with a good, but not great fastball. Gb ability isn't good, command isn't great. As noted before, if he did this in A,I would buy more. Again, can slice it anumberof ways and I could buy it. Btw, struck had a similar enough k rate in A+ with a better walk rate.

Hatley is first for me. I'm not sure there's enough ceiling with the youngsters to really jump ahead of a AAA arm with legitimate late inning possibility. Then, it becomes tough. The reality is, you can slice it a number of ways and I could buy it. I'm thinking Loosen, Chen, and Penalver. I can buy Hendricks, but I have Loosen ahead. The case for Kyle would be command and a better GB rate, but without a huge age difference (8 months), I lean Loosen because his fastball is a bit better. Still, I have a tough time over-looking the fact that he's a 23 year old in A+ without plus stuff, without good command to compensate, and without good GB ability. It's just a tough, tough mix for me to over-look. There's a part of me that wonders if I'm missing something on Loosen, something that BA heard, but I have to go off what I know. So, it's Chen and Penalver, but again, you can slice it a number of ways at this point. Chen's ceiling isn't huge, but the defense is good in CF, the approach is solid, and I really wonder if there's a bit more ... power consistency. Penalver is arguably the top defensive shortstop in the system.

There might be a WBC thread that I haven't looked for, but the last two nights, have watched a former Cubs farmhand and a current. Hung-Wen Chen's command was far sharper than I thought, but his fastball is still around 86-88. Just never had enough juice on it, and he was acting as the closer yesterday. * I wonder if their gun is shaky. Chen is pitching today, and he's hitting 91 fairly consistently. I guess the 86-88 could be some sort of off-speed pitch, though it didn't look like it yesterday. Yao-lin Wang got the start tonight, but after getting the first 4 outs, he walked three and was pulled. A bad day at the office, but I've always wondered how quality his breaking ball would be against tougher competition, and it didn't look good. Looked like he had some sort of splitter/change-up that lacked much action on it.

Two random comments: It's 4am, so I'm not inclined to count days to see if he's still eligible ... and I also have no clue where I'd put him, but wasn't Lendy Castillo on a prospect list this year? If so, sounds like he should be in the mix. Speaking of older arms/lower levels/moving fast (okay, it was mainly me talking about it), one guy I still wonder about is PJ Francescon. Now, I have a hard time slapping breakout/sleeper labels on guys at times (for example, I keep using breakout with Chen, but I don't really expect him to have a dominant year, just wonder if he can make some improvement that catches an eye ... I mean, I'm more inclined to slap a legitimate, wonder if he'll break out label on Shawon Dunston Jr.), and I don't think Francescon is a breakout guy, and sleeper seems a bit odd, as I don't have high expectations for him, but I do, for lack of a better term, wonder about him. Decent-solid slider/change combination, fastball can get into that 94 range on the 4-seamer, 90-92 on the sinker. That said, due to his age, plus a lot of competing arms for A+ slots, and some young arms pushing up to Low A ... if Francescon was a cut, I wouldn't exactly be stunned.

I get what you are saying on projection prospects, but I never viewed Beeler in that way (at least, as of right now, I don't think I did ... maybe I'm blanking). I always viewed him more as ... hmm ... polished isn't the right word ... developed doesn't sound right either ... whatever the opposite of projection was, but had the slim hope that he might be able to move fast as an older arm. I wasn't really looking at him to be more than an end of the rotation guy (although off the top, I think there was one positive report last year, or the year before?, from, I want to say, Callis?, that got me a tiny bit hopeful). As a side note, this seems weird, so I wanted to clarify. I perfectly understand what you are taking away from what I am saying, but that just seemed weird. I view it more as I don't think Loosen's ceiling is that high, and as such, if I'm looking at two similarly low ceiling guys, I'll take the younger guy with some performance record in AA over the High A guy. As for why I don't think Loosen's ceiling is that high - fastball, at last check (wasn't exactly keeping tabs over winter or anything this spring), sits more low 90's, doesn't really have a plus secondary offering (I guess I can buy someone arguing that he might have an above average breaking ball, although neither seems to be consistently above average), and doesn't exactly have sharp command to overcome deficiencies. I hope he proves me wrong, but my hopes aren't huge on him - sort of how I viewed Beeler, an older arm that I hope can move fast, with some end of the rotation potential. Now, if Loosen put up a comparable performance last year in AA (obviously, a hypothetical that we will never be able to know) ... I might've been inclined to put him ahead of Struck, because he has a deeper arsenal. All that said, BA is far wiser, and if they have him in their top 30, there must be some justification for it.

It's pretty amazing that there are guys on this list that a year or two ago, were solid top 30 prospects for the system ... and they didn't take massive steps back this past year (for example, Dallas Beeler took a step back perhaps, but not significantly.)

Very surprised Torrez is getting so many votes. I went Golden, Hatley, and then ... I wasn't sure. I like Loosen ... said it last year. But ... we're talking about a college guy that really doesn't have a plus pitch and without a dominant fastball. Add in a relatively high walk rate for the stuff set. If he put up those numbers in AA, I'd be more inclined to give it a nod here, but I just ... can't for now. I do like him a fair amount. I'm going with Pin-Chieh Chen for now. He starts the year 21, hitting 22 mid-season. There's a solid approach, above average-good (but not plus) speed. There were moments in the last year where you wondered if he had a tiny bit more pop in him, enough to make him a more legitimate threat. I really do wonder if might have a mini-breakout in A+, out of the MWL. There are some similarities to Szczur here, which says as much about Szczur as it does about Chen, but in this case, I'm utilizing it as a plus for Chen. There's solid potential to be a depth OF, and if there's a bit more power, there's a slim chance he has the makings of a starter. The depth of CF talent in the system makes it unlikely he would see starting opportunities here, but that shouldn't impact his ranking.