toonsterwu

There's a level of subjectivity as it pertains to who is a meaningful prospect, but the easy money has to be on Pierce Johnson. A relatively polished college arm shouldn't be in Kane County all that long. Much as I like Stephen Bruno, he's a "prove it" (at each level) guy for me, and when you factor in he's coming off this small injury, skipped Low A already (granted, not that big a deal, but he did jump a level), is settling into a position (2nd), and has Torreyes/Alcantara/Villanueva ahead of him in the MI in Tennessee, it's hard to imagine him getting the jump until say, mid-late summer. My guess on if Soler/Baez gets promoted would be late summer, July, maybe even August. I'm using the Xander Bogaerts from last year as a sample here, with the idea that Epstein/Hoyer may maintain a similar thinking, but that might not be the case (as Baez/Soler are slightly older than Bogaerts was last year). If one of them goes earlier, the guess would be Soler. If I had to pick a darkhorse for the heck of it, I'll say Alberto Cabrera Actually, this sort of doesn't count but CubsWin's post didn't specifically exclude this (feels like he's talking only full-season guys right now), but whenever Almora gets going, he could get the jump to Kane County fairly fast.

It's certainly been a fascinating start for Torreyes. He probably isn't going to keep this low of a K rate for a whole year (stating the obvious), but if he shows continued success at a roughly similar level, he'd easily move ahead of Watkins for me, in terms of "next" at 2nd if we move on from Barney in the near future (admittedly, that says more about how I've never been completely on the Watkins train). That said, sample sizes are really small, and he struggled in his one road series so far (which makes the home/road splits look ridiculous). This isn't to say one road series matters ... it doesn't ... but we all know that Tennessee has been the most hitter friendly park in the Southern League. I think we'll get a clearer picture on Torreyes by the end of May, with four road series, with 2 at 2 of the tougher hitting Southern League parks, Birmingham/Mississippi.

I assume it's secondary stuff for Zych. Wouldn't surprise me if it's McNutt's breaking ball that's an issue as well, although I really don't know.

I know there are plenty of chuckles when I talk about Marco Hernandez's ceiling, but it's not as if I expect any player to reach said ceiling (I really can't recall a prospect, particularly in the last 5 years, that I thought would reach their absolute ceiling). All that said, Marco's power potential has always been better than people gave it credit for. He's a guy who, at his peak, if all goes well, could conceivably be a 12-18 HR type of guy. The loft and bat speed suggests a solid enough power ceiling there. Of course, Marco has a big flaw to address offensively (his approach), so that's a big if. That said, I think a power comparison of Marco and Frandy isn't that ... off. What I find interesting about the de la Rosa/Hernandez comparison from AzPhil is that, unless my memory is failing me, he was never that huge on Marco as a shortstop. I know, off the top, that he critiqued his arm strength (which wasn't criticized elsewhere ... not many people suggest that Marco's arm strength is sub-par for short). Actually, reading about Francisco (Daniel) Sanchez reminds me that the reports, when he signed, were moderately intriguing. Then, he proceeded to be, offensively, very pedestrian, if not subpar, in DSL. Fascinating to hear that Sanchez's power potential is close to Junior Lake's.

Wasn't the report on Rosscup that he got his fastball up to around the mid-90's last year out of the pen with a filthy slider? The issue, I think, was command of his stuff.

That's fair. A note on his power is that BA comped him to Jimmy Rolliins, and Jimmy did have a couple plus power seasons in hi prime, IIRC. I think a reasonable expectation for Alcantara, assuming positive development, is probably more 12-18 with a lot of doubles, but the Rollins comp did pique my attention (I think it was BA).

230 or so AB's isn't that much, but it's enough of a sample size to make some judgments off of, and so far, Matt Szczur looks ... intriguing enough. I said it before the year, but I wonder if Szczur will force his way up to the majors at some point this season. Granted, only 80 AB's into the season, and his overall line sucked last year (though BABIP was .250), and with all the OF depth they've added, there's no rush. Still, he's getting on base, he's not striking out a ton to really worry (BB rates and K rates are similar to last year's), and he's driving the ball and showing some pop. Haven't heard anything to think his defense isn't solid in CF. There hasn't been a ton to get excited about, particularly in the upper levels, but I think Szczur's an interesting bright spot in the early going.

Well, he did go .302/.339/.447 last year, "breaking out", in particular, with his power (ISO went from 0.081 in MWL to .145 in FSL). What's interesting, to me, is the elevated walk and K rates so far. Very curious how those numbers play out over the season. You can live with him striking out at that rate. If he can continue walking at his current rate, that could really elevate him.

Do Loosen and Jokisch profile as anything more than depth? How do they compare with depth guys like Coleman, Raley, and Rusin when they were at the same levels? Jokisch has a bit more on the fastball than Raley/Rusin. Coleman/Raley/Rusin are 5th starters at best, whereas you might be able to make a case that Jokisch might be 4/5 type, a marginally higher ceiling. Loosen has a lot more on the fastball than Coleman. I know he could hit 93, but I think Raisin posted a blurb (maybe from BA?) that said he was hitting 95 last year. Don't know how real that is, and he's probably just toucing it. He's got a nice 4 pitch mix, has enough command. You could potentially make an argument that his ceiling is a mid-rotation starter if a lot of things break right.

Dammit, 2 lost posts. Quick scan of SL South - Pensacola (Reds) - I really like Tucker Barnhart as a catching prospect. Chad Rogers is a decent groundball arm. Kyle Lotzkar has a good fast/curve, but has had health issues. Not sure I buy Donald Lutz. Mississippi (Braves) - Christian Bethancourt is awesome defensively, but has problems offensively. That said, doesn't strike out much, so any offense gives him a shot. Edward Salcedo is a toolsy guy but has to work on his approach. The pitching is better. JR Graham has a big fastball and 2 decent secondary stuff. Any improvement in his secondary stuff and he jumps in prospect lists. Alex Wood has a funky delivery and a plus fast/change combo (I think), but the mechanics may push him to the pen. Aaron Northcraft might be a nice sleeper that can get groundballs. Cody Martin has plus control (I think). Ryne Harper is another intriguing arm, but I don't recall why. Mobile - Very thin on the positional front. Nick Ahmed and Jon Griffin are the names that stand out. Ahmed is the shortstop in the Upton trade. Has a chance to stick at short, but has to improve offensively. Griffin is an older corner slugger. Holmberg is a nice finesse southpaw who can hit low 90's. Meo and Spruill both have enough stuff to think they have a chance. Kevin Munson, I think, is a nice pen prospect. Jacksonville - JT Realmuto is a good catching prospect who is still raw. Derek Dietrich is a nice 2nd base prospect, but the K's are an issue. Zack Cox was a hyped collegian who has fallen flat. Even if he finds his hitting stroke, his lack of pop at the hot corner is still a problem. A nice sleeper might be Kyle Jensen, but he has to cut down on his K's. The pitching is thin. Adam Conley is a decent lefty with starting potential. Sam Dyson has a good fastball. Arquimedes Caminero reminds me a bit of a ... raw Dolis? Scott McGough is a nice pen arm, but not sure I buy late inning potential. * Former Cubs farmhand James Leverton has hit AA with the Marlins. Robert Morey intrigues me only because he was an intriguing arm in college at UVA, but injuries and struggles have hit him in the pros. Montgomery - Mikie Mahtook is probably the best positional guy, and he might be more of a Brandon Guyer type. Todd Glaesmann has pop, but he also has K's. Cam Seitzer has a name, but not much pop. Enry Romero is a southpaw with a big fast/breaking ball, but command is an issue and may be more of a pen arm. Braulio Lara was the power lefty everyone thought would go high in Rule 5, but the Marlins sent him back to the Rays, presumably because his command is still a problem (didn't follow the spring). Riefenhauser was in AFL, is a finesse lefty compared to those two. ____ That was an intriguing exercise (and frustrating losing posts twice becuase of my stupidity). I certainly don't follow the entire minors as much as I used to, so I might not know some sleepers, but in general ... wow, the Southern League looks thin. I thought the Smokies squad was a fairly pedestrian crop of guy, prospect talent wise, but it might be the 3rd or 4th best prospect laden team there. As Cubs fans know all too well, it goes to show a missed draft class or two can really hamper a system (particularly since a lot of the SL South teams are organizations that are considered solid at developing talent).

I know, I was skipping ahead in my thinking in that at some point, they've got to stop carrying 6 OF's though. Guess a trade could happen to keep Borbon around, or Sappelt gets sent down. Personally, I actually prefer Sappelt to Borbon, and I'm not big on Sappelt in any way.

Never been big on Borbon, but as a freebie ... why not? Now, I don't see the point of carrying 6 OF's, so I expect them to try and push him to Iowa at some point (at which point, there'd be a logjam at Iowa of OF's fighting for time as well). Still, it's a freebie look (I guess not really free, but you can find Alberto Gonzalez type middle infielders.)

There's probably another thread about it, but since I check here first, fascinating pickup of Borbon. I wonder what the alignment is in, presumably, Iowa. A lot of OF's fighting for PT there.

I'll probably head down that way in the next month or so as well, although more for business. The North - (don't have time to skim the South right now) Let's see, individually, Taijuan Walker is still in AA (Jackson Generals - Mariners). John Hicks is there as well, and he's gaining some steam as a intriguing catching prospect (although behind Zunino). I've never really gotten on-board the Brad Miller train for some reason, but he's an intriguing middle infield prospect with Jackson. A few of those OF pieces are intriguing as well, but somewhat boom/bust (Morban/Landry/Martinez). Carson Smith is a nice looking pen possibility. At first glance, don't know too much about the rest of their guys there, but that's a solid looking prospect grouping. Chattanooga (Dodgers) has Yasiel Puig. I'd love to see/hear how good this guy really is. He's being made out to be ... a stud. Puig overshadows Joc Pederson, who is a very, very good OF prospect. The staff has a few fascinating names - Zach Lee, Onelki Garcia, Chris Reed, Aaron Miller, Rob Rasmussen (well, Miller's dropped, but name wise, caught my eye). Former Cubs draftee Ryan Acosta has worked his way to AA, something I wasn't aware of. Those two teams stand out to me. Let's see, the other two would be the Brewers and White Sox clubs, and it makes sense that they don't stand out, as neither team has a strong farm system. Huntsville - At first glance, the names that stand out a tiny bit are Jungmann, Davis, Nelson, and Pena. Not too enthused with any. Birmingham - Trayce Thompson and Keenyn Walker have nice ceilings as OF's, but a bit boom/bust. The staff is a bit more intriguing with Scott Snodgress, Erik Johnson, and Nestor Molina standing out.

Good to see solid offensive games out of Amaya and Hernandez (particularly 2 doubles for Amaya). The pitching on all three levels tonight blows.

I can sort of see the Bruno/Barney comparison, but two reasons why I didn't go that way - a) Barney is a better infield defender. Coming up, I felt that a lot of Cubs fans under-rated his infield defense. If he was at short, I think he'd be an above average defender there. I remember another Cubs site, someone said he wasn't athletic and couldn't make plays, which befuddled me. Much as I like Bruno, I don't buy him as an elite defensive 2nd baseman, which Barney probably is. b) Bruno's hit tool, at least, at the same point in their minor league tenures, was viewed better. I mean, the knock on Barney was always whether or not he would hit enough, even coming up. But that also presumes that Bruno simply isn't feasting on raw, young arms, so the AA jump, offensively, will be critical. He probably needs consistent time at 2nd, which he looks like he will get this year, to make an accurate judgment on his defensive abilities there, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't average, and I'd be surprised if it wasn't above average (at least, potential-wise).

His defense should be pretty solid. Haven't heard anything this year, but I'm still of the belief that had it not been for Chris Taylor, Stephen Bruno might've been drafted as a shortstop. He was very good at 3rd, which was the position he played at UVA on account of Werman being the steady hand at 2nd. Offensively, I think he's got a bit more pop, and hence why I made the Pedroia comp last year, but I could see an argument that offensively, he might be more like Jose Altuve. It really comes down to how much pop you are thinking. I think he's changed his approach from his college days a bit, as at UVA, he was the number 3 hitter. I think he's a bit more focused on making contact now, but that's just eyeballing it.

I honestly forgot Schlitter was still in the system. Hey, what's going on with the Daytona rotation? Was it just off-days hampering things? I assumed Searle was in for Peralta yesterday, but why is Wang in there today? Did he impress enough to bump Kirk this fast?

To be fair to Arismendy, his plate discipline isn't bad. He's never been a high K guy, and while you'd hope for a better walk rate than he's shown in his career, being around 5% with that K rate isn't bad. His approach ... well, he can get aggressive and go after pitches he really shouldn't at times. So far this year, it seems to be a combination of some bad luck and a high K rate that's hampering him, but the sample size is too small right now.

The one thing to be said about Ha and power is that there are those that have felt that physically, he probably has mid-teen HR potential, but his swing and approach doesn't allow for that. Now, that said, at this juncture of development, it'll take a major change to really un-tap that power.

Eh, Silva may wind up as a 25th man type as well. Shocked he's got 4 homers already. Three. Silva's a year older and doesn't have Andreoli's success to date, especially given Andreoli's college background they'd want to challenge him a bit more. My guess is that the reason Silva is ahead is for a simple reason - he simply has a higher ceiling than Andreoli. His offensive potential is simply better. He's got a bit more pop, a bit more bat speed. It's not like Andreoli has a better performance record than him (granted, Silva's 2012 line was buffered by 2 hot months, but he produced). Silva also got the bump up to AA last year. It's definitely possible that Andreoli overachieves and surprises, but he is very similar to James Adduci (probably a tick better, but it isn't much). Guys with their offensive limitations simply won't get pushed as much as a guy with a higher ceiling, for better or worse. Andreoli has a higher floor than Silva, but Andreoli's ceiling is that of a depth OF, and realistically, looks more like a AAA type. Silva is a very boom/bust guy with his approach issues, but the ceiling is probably a fringe starter, depth player if he figures out a better approach. You can dream a little bit with Silva. I'm not saying Silva will be better, just that the ceiling is better.

A quick move up to Iowa, followed by success including one or both of newfound power or plate discipline. I just need one of those and he doesn't need to move up that quickly. He is repeating AA but is age appropriate. I'm more in line with Raisin's thinking on this. I don't need Ha in AAA early (although him getting there around mid-season would be nice). What I'd like to see/find out about Ha - a) Well, let's start with the easiest thing - how good is that defense in CF? I'm sort of happy, and yet sort of bothered, with the rotation of guys in CF (why Silva is in that mix, I don't know - I really only care about Ha/Szczur getting CF time). If that defense is towards the high end suggestions (basically, elite defensive CF), then the burden on the bat significantly decreases. If this is more Brandon Guyer (and I'll be honest, that's the type of guy I thought of, defensively, when I saw him a few years back), then well, that's a whole different story. b) Can his discipline show something close to what it did in the 2nd half? So far, it isn't at the same level, but obviously it's too early. c) What kind of power can he show? and I'll tag on one more thing d) Can he be consistent offensively, while maintaining that solid discipline? Too many streaky months in his past that I want to see some consistency (so short of it is, I'm not getting too enthused over one or two months of work).

The sample is too ridiculously small to draw any conclusions off of, but I would really love to see Bruno's bat at a higher level. That said, there really isn't a spot for him as of now in AA, as Villanueva needs time at 3rd, Torreyes just moved up, and moving him up as a utility man makes no sense.

I think there is definitely solid evidence that Watkins has the potential to be a starting caliber 2nd baseman. The reason I've never gotten fully on the bandwagon, which seemed to roaring full-steam ahead this winter, is fairly simple. I'd like to see him become more consistent throughout the season. In his last two stops, in AA and A+, his numbers have been bolstered by hot 2nd half's (but primarily hot June/July months). You can point to his April 2011 as perhaps a Torreyes like anomaly, but he got off to a fairly slow start in 2012 as well. I'm also curious if he can maintain the improved K rate that he showed last year.

Well... I'm not the biggest Watkins guy, but if the walk rate improvement is legitimate and he can become more consistent offensively (off the top, he's streaky at times, getting hot in the summer, IIRC), there's enough there to think that he could be a solid starting 2nd baseman. As a result, I don't think they want to call him up unless he's getting regular AB's.