toonsterwu

I have some free time, so let's see, if I made an end of May list, I think I'd go Tier 1 1. Jorge Soler 2. Javier Baez (can still see a case for Baez ahead of Soler, but Soler's bat potential and offensive approach is simply more advanced as of now) 3. Albert Almora (I could see a case for Almora ahead of Baez, but there's not enough of a body of work for me to make that move now, plus, Baez has a high ceiling and is hot with the bat right now) Tier 2 4. Pierce Johnson - really would like to see numbers in A+ before getting too giddy about work in Low A for a polished college arm. 5/6. Well ... this is where I think we could begin discussing Alcantara. Vogelbach could be in the mix, but I think one could argue that Alcantara's position and the fact that AA hasn't overwhelmed him puts him in range. Tier 3 7-10 ... uh ... Vizcaino's health situation has to be factored in a bit heavier as of now ... Still, no one's really stepped forward to grab a spot. Candelario had a nice enough to run to probably force his way in there as of now, and uh ... ... uh ... I guess there's a case for Szczur in the top 10 as of now (as a chat in BA noted, he does look like a possible 2nd division starting CF). I'm not really sure who I'd squeeze in for 7-10 ... Watkins hasn't done enough to change my mind about him to move him up, Brett has sucked and been hurt, and Paniagua is an unknown. Villanueva's been more cold than hot. I guess I could understand an upside nod from recent drafts (Maples/Underwood), or maybe a high floor guy like Kyle Hendricks. Not pretty ... thankfully it's only 2 months in. * My belief that Cabrera is a pen arm down the line probably was why I skipped over him when I thought about this a few minutes ago, but he is probably in the conversation for our top 10 as of now. I can't think of anyone else to add to the mix. Maybe Gioskar Amaya, but the strikeouts really bother me.

The little I've heard, I don't think anything's all that different from a year ago - a guy with enough tools to make you wonder if he can stick at short, but who probably doesn't have the top end defensive potential at short, is still inconsistent with his footwork, and has a somewhat erratic arm. You keep him at short as long as possible, though, even with Baez behind, as it expands your options tremendously.

Fundamentally, I believe everyone on this roster should be available. Realistically, that's not the case. That said, what do we have to trade? I look at this roster, in terms of trade assets, and the two things that come to mind are a) Hey, a lot of movable parts ... and b) Which of these guys is really going to net ... an intriguing return? There really aren't a lot of pieces that seem likely to net intriguing returns, for a variety of reasons (hence why I believe everyone should be available ... if someone offers you a stupid return because they are desperate, you should ponder it, partly because there really isn't much in the upper levels, and most of the somewhat intriguing guys in AA probably need to spend the full year in the minors). Davell does a nice job breaking down the potential trade candidates. Some thoughts - - Everything comes with two caveats ... it only takes one team to really throw things out of whack (so injuries can change the game) ... and if someone's ridiculously hot, you never know. - Navarro and Sweeney netting a Jeff Baker type return (Marcelo Carreno - an mildly intriguing A level asset)? Baker offered a team versatility and some righthanded pop. There's enough of an offensive book on Sweeney and Navarro. It's tough for me to envision them netting something like that. That said, I do agree that if anyone wants to give up anything for them ... you move along and get similar guys next offseason, as similar guys are always available. - Feldman is a tough one to figure. If he's hot, you never know what a team will give up for pitching at the deadline, if they have a need. That said, if he comes down to earth a little bit, then he's an innings eater who will give you end of the rotation ability. Not bad ... but how much does a team give up for that. It reminds me of the Jarrod Washburn trade a few years ago (to the Tigers ... fully acknowledge not the best comp and all trades exist in their own environments). Washburn netted Luke French and Mauricio Robles, not the most exciting tandem. If we can get a Doug Fister type trade return, great, but if we simply get an intriguing raw asset that's several years away (Robles sort of falls in that broad category), I don't think I'd be disappointed. Not excited, but not disappointed if that's the end result. - If DeJesus is hitting, I do feel like, on paper, it's probably the right time to move him, with an option that most teams should be able to live with. If he's hitting, I also think that expecting a borderline top 10 prospect for our system probably isn't, on paper, an unrealistic demand. That said, if his power falls off, I can't figure out which team would go hard after him, barring injuries. He's a corner OF, top of the order hitter. Not a ton of teams looking for that, so unless you squeeze him into CF, it's tough to figure out who. That said, a long way to go. (if there's a team I wonder about right now as a fit, it'd be the Indians ... seems like he could be a nice piece to slide into the 2 hole to move Kipnis down the lineup a bit). - Hairston for a couple guys in our top 20? Don't see that. Keeping Hairston around? I can buy that. Everything depends on whether or not he can pick it up hitting wise. - I'm a firm believer that any and all pen arms should be considered. Now, Fujikawa probably won't be moved, but everyone else should be considered. There's simply no point in having James Russell hanging around at a high cost if you can likely net a good return for him. If Russell doesn't fall off tremendously (if he simply becomes closer to the pitcher he was last year, that's fine), he should be able to net you a pretty good return at the deadline. Yeah, he's got a few more years of control, but if he's at a peak and has years of control, that should be able to help us in getting a quality return (Atlanta screams out as a possible fit). If anyone wants Marmol, move on. - I think we're in no man's land with Garza. I hope he gets on such a roll that we move out of no man's land with him, but it seems far more likely that he won't pitch well enough to net a big return, and it'll be tough to find a fit for an extension. I guess I could envision a team potentially offering a Rich Harden type return (Gallagher/Murton/Patterson/Donaldson for those that forgot ... easy to forget that Gallagher was a very intriguing asset then), and I think I'd probably be okay with that versus an extension. This is a tough one for the FO. If Garza would agree to some club options/triggers on the back end of a multi-year deal (not 5, though), I'd be fine if they went that route. - I think you move Schierholtz if anyone offers anything interesting. That's a very broad parameter to set, but look, if you can get a Todd Walker type return on Schierholtz (Jose Ceda, basically, a gamble on a raw upside arm), then I think you pull the trigger. He's a platoon guy who could be a cheap way to fill the OF for 2014, so if there's nothing interesting (and the way he's tailed off a bit makes it debatable), you keep him around. I think our best trade asset, the one that might garner the most market interest, is James Russell, and I think he should net a good return. There's obviously no rush to move him, so if an injury happens/performance declines dramatically, you hold onto him, but if a good return is there, I think you pull the trigger. The Braves injuries makes me wonder if we could pry, say, a JR Graham or Alex Wood to headline a deal, and it's something I'd definitely consider. It's nice to keep solid guys with team control around, particularly guys that came up the system, but Russell could be the type that nets you a good piece for 2014, perhaps giving the FO some flexibility in the way they spend their money in the winter.

Slate looks relatively okay for UVA in their regional. That said, the pitching was really shaky down the stretch, so nothing would really surprise me. If UVA is to advance to supers, I think the offense is going to have to show up in a big way, with the pen, and namely, Kyle Crockett, logging key work. The bracket opposite them intrigues me - Miss St./So. Alabama/Mercer all seem fairly intriguing.

Um ... no one. He did this last year as well. Actually, the BABIP is nearly as bad as his awful May of last year as well (maybe he should just not play for the month ... ). The numbers on firstinning say he's hitting a ton more groundballs than in April, rate wise, so that's something to watch. The lack of consistent power will simply limit him offensively at times.

That is exactly why I was pushing him as a top 10 prospect in the system this winter. It's not that I necessarily "buy" Alcantara, but as I said this winter, it's more that the "biography", his tools, and his performance dictated that he should be top 10. I do regret not pushing harder for Alcantara over Villanueva, though. Worst case scenario seems to be that we have an intriguing trade asset for a couple years (it's hard for me to think that Alcantara doesn't have some decent-solid trade value right now). Best case? He moves to 2nd base and becomes a number 2 type hitter. Not hard to envision 10-15 HR type power from him, and he doesn't strike out a ton. It's a nice asset to have. As excited as I am about the potentially big splashes we are likely to make in the international market, one thing Hendry's regime did somewhat well in was find intriguing raw Latin American assets, focusing on a quantity approach.

See, here's what I don't get about that comment. Gray "closing the gap" makes little sense to me since a lot of folks have Gray as the top guy in this class. Anyhow, I have my doubts Bryant goes 1. As for taking Manaea, I'd pass. There's enough intriguing arms to not take a gamble like that. I agree with JCF that attempting to get a quantity of solid quality is better than gambling on a high upside arm. As a side note, if you want to talk about senior signs, lefty Scott Silverstein of UVA is someone to consider in the top 10 rounds. He was a very good prep arm, but then had multiple injuries. He's a 5th year senior, but he's come on strong and is topping out mid-90's on the fastball again. We know they scout UVA enough (who doesn't these days, but they did pick Bruno last year while going to study Taylor), so just a guy to keep in mind.

He could very well make some mid season top 20-30 lists. Especially taking consideration the overall meh-ness that we've gotten from the majority of our pitching prospects. If he keeps this up, I'd be surprised if he wasn't on everyone's top 30 lists. I mean, heck, I think you can make a case for top 15 right now in our system. A long way to go until we need to think about mid-season lists, though.

Plus command helps any pitcher, particularly a guy who isn't known to have plus stuff (That said, his stuff isn't bad ... all 4-5 of his pitches are at least average). I recall a report somewhere saying that he was a pretty cerebral pitcher and tried to learn how to improve his pitch sequencing. Stuff seems a bit sharper/better this year, although I don't know if anyone is calling his stuff plus. I wasn't huge on him entering the year, not because I didn't like him, but more because I want to see how the command holds and how his stuff plays. He's been very impressive, though.

To be fair, it's not hard to envision Downes struggling up the ladder like, say, Jarrett Parker (although Parker's having a decent year this year, at last check). He's got a year to turn it around, but it's also possible the K's get worse as teams have a better book on him. Of course, the deep UVA lineup holds. Actually, if I was being fair, I don't love Derek Fisher as a top half of the first round guy. I can understand it - the bat speed, power, and discipline at the plate is solid across the board. Still, he's probably better in LF, and I don't know if he's an ... elite bat. He could be decent in RF, but UVA put Joe McCarthy and Mike "Ridiculous Slash line and wasn't even a starter full year" Papi at the corners ahead of him (partly because Fisher got dinged up a bit during the year, IIRC right now).

Baylor is hitting .274/.367/.358 in conference and .271/.358/.348 overall. The conference line is second in the mediocre Big 12 (with a big gap behind the best hitting team in the conference, Kansas State). Probably one of the best offensive teams he's faced in conference - the Big 12 is not the SEC or Pac-12. This really should go in the baseball thread, but since you follow college baseball more than I do, what happened to the Big 12? That slash line would be one of the worst offenses in the ACC (if they performed in the ACC and put up those numbers). Man, I just don't know what happened to that conference baseball wise.

I have mixed feelings about Colin Moran. On the one hand, I question whether or not the power will come, and I don't think he's an elite contact guy. Just one of those feelings when you see a guy sometimes. Sometimes my feelings are way off, though. So if I was being fair ... you look at the bloodlines, the body, the swing ... you would think he should be able to add enough power to be solid at the hot corner while hitting for a solid enough average. Furthermore, he should be solid defensively. It's a good and ready package, and he's shown a high level of performance. I wouldn't take him over Gray, and as lukewarm as I still am about Appel, I wouldn't take him over Appel for us. But ... if they for some reason opted against whoever was left of the two and went with Moran ... there's a part of me that would be so wary of it, but there's a part of me that could understand passing on Bryant for him (personally, Ball would be my third). I can see Moran as possibly being the away version of Kyle Seager, and being that guy relatively soon.

At this point ... perhaps on the back end. I haven't really pondered an entire list, but off the top, if someone wanted to argue for him at the back end of the top 30 ... I can't see myself having a big issue with it. It's not like it's "fluke" power - the raw power was always known. Whether or not he can maintain this, I don't know, but yeah, back end top 30 doesn't seem out of question at this point. That said, I really want to see consistent performance from him for multiple months, as he's likely destined to a 1st/LF/DH role (and I'm not so sure I'd want him in the OF) if he makes it up, so the bat is going to have to play.

Raley should be given at least another look, at least in the pen, before being written off. The AAA numbers have been steady to solid. Although he's not significantly better, he's not exactly JR Mathes in terms of stuff.

I haven't really been following this discussion, but I'm mildly surprised no one brought up Iowa's closer as someone to consider for pen help. The stuff looks to be back for Parker.

Probably, but I think people would likely want to see how he does at A+ before they make that determination.

Rodon pitched much better in the 2nd half, including that complete game against ... Georgia Tech? Even when he struggled the first half, he was still doing better than most pitchers. The command and consistency haven't been there, but the raw stuff has been. As long as he's not injured, he's still the horse I'd bet on from the 2014 college pitching class. One guy to watch for, in terms of draft placement, from the college ranks, IMO, is Brandon Downes from UVA. He has the makings of a high round pick - good CF (also backup catcher), good power. He has one big question, though - the K's are high, and there definitely is some swing and miss concern. But, I think he's better than Jarrett Parker a few years ago, who ended up as a 2nd round pick (flop).

Hendricks has 4th/5th starter potential. It sounds like the stuff has gotten a bit better this year, although I doubt he's going to take a sudden jump from average to plus stuff. If the plus command holds, he's got a shot. ______ I really want to wonder if this really is some sort of breakout for Geiger. Now, all that said, I guess I'm reacting partially to the MiLB article, and those articles (about Geiger/Soler's night) tend to be ... fluff, and Geiger is coming off an exemplary night. That said, when I saw him before, he had a bit of a loopy swing, which, in reading the article and thinking about it, might've been due to the leg kick. If he's ironed that out a bit ... well, his K's are down and BB's are up, and we've always known there's power. No, he's not a .331 hitter or whatever he's doing now, but if the swing's smoother and he's on top of it, he could hit for enough contact. Of course, the other big issue is, uh ... I can't think of the term I want ... how much ... playable power ... he has. As he's destined, if he makes it up, to be a 1st/LF/DH type, he's going to need to hit for power to justify getting a look. He does have the raw power, though. It's still a bit early, but there's some positive signs and he is age appropriate (age 21 season in A+).

Personally I think we should do two updates. One on june 1 and one in august. The august one would give us a better gauge than the one in july in regards to peoople that get bumped up midseason.

I'm sort of in agreement. Asking 50 from so many makes it messy. We had some small vote total differences in the end. The preseason list isn't bad. Its a preseason list. A midseason list would be nice.

I'm still a Gray guy if we had the choice between the two. The raw power stuff is too tantalizing for a system that sorely lacks SP prospects with that type of potential. I'm curious about the idea that Gray would take less to go with the Astros - he's largely thought as a top 2 prospect in this draft, it's generally thought he won't fall below 2 or 3, and he's a junior. How much can they really save with Gray? That said, there's a part of me that really wonders if we look back on this draft a decade from now and wish we took a prep player. Ball fascinates me, but obviously not at 2. Stewart is too risky there, and you'd have to sold that Frazier was simply that elite to take him over a needed arm. Bryant's intriguing, but unless he's a clear notch above Gray/Appel, and he really shouldn't be, I don't think you can afford to take him when there's good, collegiate power pitching to fill the system's main need. This draft really sets up well for us in that, it sure looks like there should be, on paper, some solid arms to pick from at 41 and 75, so we should be able to add some much needed pitching quality to the system.

I'm sure there's been worse, but 6 errors in a 7 inning game just seems embarrassing right now. Haven't had time to follow things all that closely, some random thoughts - a - I don't really see the point of Pierce Johnson being in KC that much longer. Outside of Wells and maybe Cates, there isn't a whole lot of intriguing guys in Daytona, and Johnson looks close to ready for the jump. b - I guess it's not a ... stunning shock ... but Gioskar Amaya's been thoroughly disappointing. That K rate ... c - Anyone have any reports on Del Valle's velocity out of the pen? Somewhat curious. d - Said it preseason, but still wouldn't be shocked if they pushed Szczur to the bigs sooner than later, assuming he stays hot, to see what they have. Would require some moves/trades to happen. e - Nice to see Christian Villanueva heating up. Total side note - I remember in the prospect debate saying that I didn't see why Villanueva should be ahead of Alcantara when one plays SS and the other plays 3rd, and both are similar offensively. Just find it interesting how similar their slash lines are. To be clear, both have been disappointing, although not unexpected. f - A bit lucky perhaps, but nice to see Dallas Beeler have a decent start to the season. Not hard to imagine him being lucky and getting some looks as a 5th starter. Considering it was a late round injury gamble ... granted, we hoped for better. g - It's been a thoroughly ugly start to the minor league season in many respects, so I'll take my silver linings when possible, and Blake Parker's had a nice start.

Thanks! Rotation? That is my understanding. Double header tomorrow. What does that do to the rotation? I haven't followed closely enough to know. Someone gets bumped up, down, or out I presume. Interesting. Outside of Wells, the other guys in the rotation there can be moved around. Barring pushing a guy on short rest, that would put him on Austin Kirk's day, so I could see them swapping Kirk out for Kyler to see which lefty fits more into their long term plans.

It really does sound like Connor Jones is going to UVA. I had my doubts for awhile, but they seem pretty set on him going there. As a UVA fan, I'm happy, although I hope things work out better for him than Kirby (who has been pushed to the pen after doing the same thing last year and opting out of the draft as a top 200 guy ... actually, he was ineligible, IIRC, because he never went through medicals). It'll be a nice get (along with Nicely) for UVA. After a couple years of missing on guys (Mesoraco, Nicolino, Matthews), as a UVA fan, it's great to see the top guys coming in. I guess you never say never, because if a team pops him in say, the first round, who knows.

Your right, my bad.