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From the positional side, I think Brett Jackson to AA is probably one of the early favorites. I doubt they'll shift Burke/Jackson together to AA, not when there are guys like Brandon Guyer that still need spots in AA. One of them may go. Flaherty was another oft-discussed possibility, although some water was put on that idea by, um, BA? I wouldn't put Caridad as a lock just yet. CL: Marmol Lefty pen arms: Marshall/Grabow Righty setup: Guzman/Gray That leaves, at most, 2 regular spots. Parisi could be in the mix, along with Berg. Add in that the Cubs have repeatedly said they'd like to add a veteran pen arm, and I could see Caridad in AAA. As of now, I'd guess that he makes it, but I don't think it's a lock.

From the positional side, I think Brett Jackson to AA is probably one of the early favorites. I doubt they'll shift Burke/Jackson together to AA, not when there are guys like Brandon Guyer that still need spots in AA. One of them may go. Flaherty was another oft-discussed possibility, although some water was put on that idea by, um, BA? I wouldn't put Caridad as a lock just yet. CL: Marmol Lefty pen arms: Marshall/Grabow Righty setup: Guzman/Gray That leaves, at most, 2 regular spots. Parisi could be in the mix, along with Berg. Add in that the Cubs have repeatedly said they'd like to add a veteran pen arm, and I could see Caridad in AAA. As of now, I'd guess that he makes it, but I don't think it's a lock.

I was trying to guess the full-season rotations for the start of the year the other day. this is what I worked up so far. Probably off on a lot of the guesses. Iowa: Jay Jackson, Casey Coleman, Mitch Atkins, Jeff Samardzija, James Russell. Some other guys I could see in the mix: JR Mathes, Thomas Diamond, Jeremy Papelbon, maybe Esmailin Caridad if he doesn't make the pen out of spring. Tennessee: Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter, Ryan Searle, Craig Muschko, Jeremy Papelbon. Other thoughts: Hung-wen Chen, Marcos Mateo, Alessandro Maestri. Daytona: Rafael Dolis, Chris Archer, Justin Bristow, Chris Rusin, Aaron Shafer. Other thoughts: Dan McDaniel, Austin Bibens-Dirx, James Leverton. Peoria: Dae-Eun Rhee, Jeffry Antigua, Robert Hernandez, Jon Nagel, Brooks Raley. Other thoughts: Jeff Beliveau, Jose Rosario, Trey McNutt, Larry Suarez, Austin Kirk. _______________________________ I don't really have any bold guesses, and last year, with the Jay Jackson/Casey Coleman/Dan McDaniel/Ryan Searle moves, amongst others, the organization made some relatively bold pitching decisions. I'm just not sure who is out there that could make a similar "bold" move this year. Rusin to A+ isn't really bold. I'll be surprised if Cashner isn't in Tennessee. Would it stun me if they moved him to Iowa? Probably not, but I think they'll stick with the starting experiment as long as possible, and Tennessee's the better spot. I'm more curious where Jay Jackson lands, due to his issues last year. I may be projecting my own desires in putting Russell as a starter. I'm not sure they hold Coleman back. The organization seemed quite pleased with Muschko's work and I expect him to get a starting slot as a result. Papelbon might not be able to be an effective pen arm, so they might stretch him out. I don't really love the idea of Searle as a starter in AA next year, but I'm not sure they will shift him to the pen, and I'm not sure they will keep him in Daytona. I could see Dolis sneak up to Tennessee to start early in the year, and then perhaps shifting to the pen if they decide his future is there, as most anticipate. I'm very excited at the names that could compete in Peoria, and am looking forward to Justin Bristow.

Someone said over on Sickels that, in a recent chat, Callis put Castro as the 13th best prospect in the minors. If so ... wow. 13th? .... geesh ... wow ... Anyhow, I don't know if we've discussed the Derek Helenihi signing yet. Feels like Hendry doing a favor for Maineri in all honesty (nothing personal). Unless Helenihi can play 2nd ... but even if he can, we're loaded there. I don't think Helenihi's bat will make it up the ladder far as a corner If/corner OF. That said, I guess we should start expecting a LSU train of some sort coming our way, which is good, considering it is LSU, a premier program. This has me pondering the idea of Anthony Ranaudo in next year's draft. Sure feels like a strong possibility in the mid-first. I wouldn't mind it, particularly if he shows improvement this year on his change-up.

Yeah, it could take some time for Wang, but it's also possible that, with better strength and conditioning, that he could show the promise sooner. The upside's huge. On a side note, I pondered Beliveau, but I don't buy him as a starter right now, and as a pen arm, he seems like Gaub-ish or Lambert-sih (probably somewhere in b/w) and I didn't think he was top 20 worthy. I had him around 35 last I did it, I think.

Don't forget about Tzu-An Wang in regards to guys that could take a jump next year. I'm very fascinated by the potential in the kids. He has some more room to fill out, hasn't been playing baseball long, is a fairly good athlete, and has a good frame. Add in that he supposedly has a plus-split/change pitch as well, and gets around low 90's on the fb already, and that's exciting. I also could see Burruel/Darvill maybe work their way into discussion lists, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dan McDaniel found his way back into some discussion lists. I really wonder how much the back injury played into his problems, and how much his back injury impacted his ability to loosen up. Of course, he's going to have to fight tooth and nails for a rotation spot, as Daytona could have some fierce battles in that regards, and he certainly isn't a favorite for one right now.

I'm assuming you are referring to Spencer. I wasn't that surprised, although I thought he was a borderline C/C+ guy as well. That said, upper level bat with pop that, by most accounts, showed progress last year as he started spraying the ball around a bit more and, iirc a report indicated his swing wasn't as long as before. Potentially able to stick in RF. I mean, that sounds C+ish, and he was always relatively well liked by scouts.

Sickels places a much higher value on starters than relievers. I think he's only willing to rank relievers high if they either are really talented or if they are close to the majors (Caridad, Parker, Gaub, etc.). That explains Huseby. I'm not totally sure why he was down on the rest of them, though. Huseby was a borderline C+ for me for the same reasons. If I "fight" for any one of them, it'd probably be Searle. I have Antigua higher as of now, but that one is understandable in that, he might simply want to see more. Searle, on the other hand, really did have a fairly solid season in A+, and considering John has emphasized and supported ARL as a factor in his rankings in the past, that seems a better argument than the other three.

I think Sickels did a real solid job this year. Archer/Searle/Antigua/Huseby all getting C's surprised me. I figured Huseby would be borderline C+, but I liked the other three (and probably many of the people here as well) more than John does. I can somewhat understand going with C's on all of them as well, but I really think one or two of them should be C+'s, but I'm not sure that's something I'll "fight" for on Sickels site whenever he asks people to offer suggestions on grade issues. Mildly surprised at Raley at 11, but I can buy that a tiny bit.

I'm a tad surprised Ruhlman was released as well. That said, we have more than enough upper level pen arms for Iowa and Tennessee, at least, on paper.

The two things that stand out to me are Jody Davis at Boise and Casey Kopitzke at Peoria. On the latter, it seems clear that the spec that the Cubs were high on Casey Kopitzke's coaching abilities is true. With the way things are falling, I half-wonder if he's being groomed for a big league coaching job (not manager, at least, not anytime soon). Also interesting to see Jody back managing. I know I'm thinking 5 steps too far, but I wonder if Jody and Casey could be coaches on ... the next coaching staff. Anyhow, looks like a good crew.

Tim how can you say that no offense is expected from Clevenger/Chirinos. Clevenger holds a BA. over .300 and the big hype this offseason is Chirinos' power and how he's hitting in winter ball. So how can you say that no offense is expected from those guys? Everything I hear is that Clevenger is a offensive catcher who has no power but can hit for average. People say that his defense is progressing. From his numbers it looks to me that he can play defense and hit. As far as I'm concerned the cubs put the wrong guy on the roster in Castillo. The guy had a losy year and gets rewared for it. Thats a good Flieta and Henry move right there. Also thank them for trading Fox for absolutely nothing and drafting this pitcher in the rule 5 draft that had over a 8 era also coming off surgery in 2008. The catchers - The argument for Castillo is that, talent wise, he's the most talented catcher in our system. The other two guys profile purely as backup backstops - Castillo has a bit more potential that, if he develops, could be more than just a backup backstop. His bat also was a bit unlucky in the first half, before having a solid 2nd half, and his defense, by all accounts, improved this year. He's probably not as steady as Chirinos, probably not as good a leader as Chirinos, and probably won't make as much contact as Clevenger, but there was good justification, IMO, to putting Castillo on after he had a solid 2009 campaign. Jake Fox - I've said it here and elsewhere, but had the trade simply been Jake Fox for those three guys, I would've been okay with it. Add in that we saved 1.7 million on Miles, and it's fine by me. Look, Fox is a nice player, a guy who can fill a role. That said, he doesn't really have a position that he can play regularly as of now. He's not a young pup. He's still, despite improvement with his discipline, a bit of a hacker, and will always be. Going to the AL is the best move for him, as he can DH there. The only role he really would've fit on the club next year was big bat off the bench (and Pat Burrell may end up filling that role). If the Cubs liked Gray enough, I'm more concerned about the pen than I am about a big bat off the bench. Sure, I don't really think Gray is anything more than a middle reliever, but keep in mind, this isn't really the Cubs pen of a few years back. Outside of Guzman/Marmol, there's very few power arms, and Gray brings some power stuff to the table. Add in a decent positional asset, and an intriguing young arm in Morla, and I would've been fine with that 3 for 1 swap. The fact that we cleared 1.7 million is a nice bonus. As for Mike Parisi, it's a 25 grand gamble. He'll chew up some ST innings, and if he's not good enough, let's face it, 25 grand isn't much in baseball. He should have a good shot at the 5th starter's job. He's coming off a solid AFL where his 4 pitch arsenal looked solid enough. The competition is Jeff Samardzija, Tom Gorzelanny (and perhaps Marshall, although I get the feeling that Marshall is ticketed for the pen already). Parisi is much further along than Samardzija as a starter (leaving aside the question of whether or not Samardzija is a starter). There's a decent chance he could win that 5th job to start the year, with Lilly on the mend. If not, the team could use him as the long man. Sure, Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg are both former starters, but in Berg's case, he's more of a, bring him in for a DP ball type pen arm/middle reliever, and in Caridad's case, his velocity is much better in short stints. At the end of the day, it's a cheap gamble and not worth getting too worked up over.

Jeremy Papelbon isn't on the 40 man. One problem I heard with him is that some Cubs folks thinks he takes too long to get warmed up to be effective out of the pen, meaning he might not be a LOOGY and more of a long man. As for Parisi, best way to look at it is that it's a cheap gamble. I don't have high expectations, and the Rule 5 pick that succeeds is the exception, and not the rule. The options this year were thin. On the plus side, he looked good in AFL and has a 4 pitch arsenal. I mean, when the competition is Marshall/Samardzija/Gorzelanny for the last two spots, sure, I could see Parisi perhaps beating someone for a rotation job at the start of the year. He actually reminds me a bit of Casey Coleman. He could also stick around as the long man, last man in the pen type, with the Cubs potentially stashing him away like they did with Patton last year. Or, he could simply be a ST arm. At the end of the day, cheap enough gamble. Btw, Harry Pavlidis did an interview with him after being selected. As for Miguel Sierra, well, put it this way, I honestly had to look up where Miguel Sierra played last year, and I follow it fairly closely. Completely lost track of him in my mind. Here's to wishing him the best, although I'm fine. Just another minor league arm.

He didn't. typo on my part. meant to say mildly surprised he took jackson over miller. ______________ Not sure if there's going to be another Rule 5 thread ... So, in Jon Mayo's Rule 5 preview, http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20091209&content_id=7783398&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb, he notes Clevenger as a likely Cub to be taken, and notes that the Cubs were preparing to be hit a few times. I believe BA has mentioned Chirinos as someone that could be plucked. Matt Camp could be a possibility for a team looking for a depth guy. Thomas Diamond and Alessandro Maestri seem like two more guys that could be plucked. I wonder about Robert Hernandez, although I would guess no right now. Mathes, Muyco, Papelbon, Reinhard, Perkins, Ruhlman, and Robinson are all guys that could potentially get nabbed. I haven't really contemplated names of guys that are available. Tbh, I'm not expecting us to exercise our pick. That said, maybe there's a power arm out there that they like, which I wouldn't be against. Corey Wimberly mildly catches my eye as someone that could compete for the backup OF job with Fuld perhaps. That said, I'm not real sure how well he can handle the OF.

mildly surprised that callis took jay jackson over aaron miller. i had been under the impression that he was quite high on miller and that he was a bit lukewarm on jay jackson.

I'm reasonably intrigued by Morla. His numbers were pretty darned good last year. Need to find out more about him, though, as that's pretty much all I know at this point. Got this off the A's Scout web site from right before spring training last year: Mayo made Morla sound much better than I thought. I thought Morla was a low 90's guy with a decent-solid changeup. Mayo's post last night suggested Morla was sustaining 93-94 as a starter, and that he had a good slider. Granted, he's eligible for Rule 5 after next year, but I think it's a fairly intriguing arm to add to the lower mix, and I hope he's starting in Peoria to begin the year.

Mayo's report makes Morla sound much better than I thought. Says 93-94 with a good slider. http://minors.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/as-cubs_trade_prospects.html

I'm fine with this deal. Fox really didn't have a role here, and let's face it, we might have to put Burrell on the bench at some point. The 1.7 million saved on Miles is a key factor, since we are so tight with the financial aspect this offseason. In return, we get a usable middle reliever (don't really buy Gray as a late inning type), an upper level positional asset (granted, I don't think Spencer is more than a Quad-A type, but he does have some pop and his bat could perhaps develop somewhat like Jake Fox's), and a very intriguing arm in Morla. Morla's a lanky, young guy who has some physical maturation left, throws strikes, throws in the low 90's with a good change. Some work to do, but it's an interesting package.

Law loves him. In some ways, Law was responsible for the sudden surge in Castro interest due to that piece he wrote about him when he went to see him in the AFL. On a side note, very pleased to add a good, raw arm like Ronny Morla. I mean, he's probably not top 30 (not that I've really pondered it), but he's a good, young lanky arm that throws in the low 90's with a decent-solid change. Throws a healthy amount of strikes as well. There's some room for projection. I don't think much of Spencer, but overall, I like the Morla addition.

I like Perkins. IIRC, he still had some bite with the slider. Obviously, there were control problems, although I think his bigger problem is that lefties can tee off on him. He probably needs some sort of change or something to balance things out, and I don't recall that he ever developed that pitch enough. He is sort of in a jam in our system - enough young righty arms in the upper levels, and a lot of arms pushing up the ranks that could get looks ahead of him.

I'm sure Boston might ask again, but Florida's probably going to keep the core intact to see if they can make a run. If not, at midseason, I think they'd shop people ... but probably not Hanley (Josh Johnson).

For all the talk about Halladay, I would much rather make a run at Josh because he's younger, cost-controlled, and has excellent stuff. I would love to make a run at him. Keith Law has suggested 2 ready guys and 2 AA prospects. I can't imagine the deal would be significantly more than, say, what Haren netted the A's a couple years back, and I could see the deal being less due to cost-controlled years. That said, all trades have their own dynamics and environment, so I'm not directly comparing it. I mean, there are few deals where I'd suggest putting two of our top 3 arms in (J Jackson, Cashner, Carpenter), but I would definitely consider it in this case. After all, what we are hoping out of that three is for one of them to develop into, say, a 2/3 type starter (if not better), and with Johnson, you have a guy only a few years older who is established and has ace ability. I mean, I wouldn't let the Marlins pick, say, any 4 guys they wanted, but I'd be willing to go hard and heavy. That said, I doubt we'll pursue this heavily, at least, not before the MB situation and CF is taken care of. Also, Frisaro and Olney (h/t mlbtr) have come out and questioned Perrotto's comment on Josh being available.

We have a loose idea of KG's BP list, assuming the conversation on SportsCentral was summed up accurately at http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2009/11/cubsrumors11279.php It seems to suggest Vitters, Lee, Cashner, Castro, Brett Jackson as his top 5. He suggests the talent level drops off rapidly after that top 5. Certainly an interesting take. He doesn't seem to be as high on Jay Jackson as he was at midseason (ranked him 3rd midseason ... it was on David Kaplan's blog in a review of the Mark DeRosa trade, at midseason, he had it as Vitters, Cashner, Jay Jackson, Lee, Castro). I agree with the general idea that Castro is overhyped, but I find it interesting that KG doesn't seem to factor in projection for Castro, whereas most of his comments on Vitters suggest he's factoring in some form of projection. After all, the idea of Vitters and plus power, assuming that he overcomes his discipline deficiencies, is still a bit of a projection.

Doesn't he have control and consistency issues? Coupled with being considered a thrower and I'd find it very hard to believe his mechanics are all that good. His arm action is solid, and I think that's what most people are referencing when discussing his mechanics. The problem is more on the delivery side and how he needs to get his lower body more involved. It just didn't seem that pronounced to me outside of that clip. Furthermore, he is still fairly young to FT pitching.

Not sure why I never followed up on this thread - anyhow, the few reports I've read on Watkins suggest that he won't get near that type of power (Walker/Barrett) without completely retooling his swing.