toonsterwu

Thing with Lee is, while physically, he could probably crank out a few more HR's, his swing is one where power isn't the focus, and he would have to drastically rework his swing for him to generate those couple extra HR's, and unless there's some drastic flaw with his swing (so far, no), very few organizations are going to completely redo the swing and risk a player losing their value. Castro's ability to stay level, turn on pitches, pitch recognition, and how his wrists explode with the bat should lead to some power. The question is how much.

Side note, but most people believe that Castro played around 180ish this year. He also isn't projected to be able to carry more than, say, 190ish of good weight (that is, weight that won't significantly impact athletic ability). Obviously, frame expectations are an inaccurate science, to say the least.

Before making any other comments, let me first state real clearly - I do not have any expectations that Starlin Castro will turn into Hanley Ramirez. I try to never make that sort of comparison - it's an unfair burden on a youngster. Hanley wasn't expected to be Hanley. That said, Starlin Castro just finished his age 19 season. At age 19, Hanley Ramirez was a level behind in SAL and posted a .275/.327/.403 line. Starlin went .302/.340/.391 in A+, followed by .288/.347/.396. I would say power and production are, at the very least, comparable, if not a slight edge for Starlin since he was at a higher level. Hanley struck out 17.3% of the time, while walking 7.6% of the time. In Daytona, Starlin walked 4.9% and struck out 11.5%. In limited AB's at AA, he walked 8.2% and struck out 10.8% of the time. Combined, he walked 6.2% on the year, while striking out 11.3% of the time. Again, I'd argue that it's fairly comparable in the age department. Hanley loosely broke out in AA in 2004 at age 20 in 129 AB's ... before crashing in 2005 in AA with the Red Sox souring on him somewhat and pondering a position change (IIRC). You can't really use Hanley's AA "breakout" without acknowledging that he tumbled hard in 2005 in AA. Realistically, he broke out when he got to the bigs. Sure, at the end of the day, this was a supremely talented kid that maybe needed the challenge to stay sharp, but if you want to note a comparison on age and level, as of now, there isn't a significant difference. Let's take a peek at a free scouting report ... From 2003 http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/03top10s/redsox.html It's a fairly similar report to what we see out there on Starlin Castro right now. ____________________________ Do I expect Starlin to develop into Hanley? Of course not. I can dream, but I'm not expecting it. But at the end of the day, if you buy his tools, it's easy to see why some folks are lauding his potential. Is he overhyped? Without a doubt. Overhyped is not a bad thing, though. It simply means he hasn't produced to the expectations yet ... but he's 19 turning 20 in a month. Maybe he ends up busting. Is it fair to say that, the top 15 status that guys like Jim Callis and Keith Law, two more knowledgeable guys than us with far better resources than we have, a bit overenthusiastic? Probably. Despite their knowledge, I'd say that's going a bit far until he proves it. But he's a dang good prospect who has shown the ability to stay level with the bat, and by most accounts, a good worker and student. There's every reason to believe that he could improve in his walk rate enough. The power's what will either make him an overhyped prospect (if it doesn't develop) or a quality starting MI (if it does come around). A couple other comments - This is, by some, including myself, considered to be an overall down year in the minors. Talent and ability can always be found, but in regards to how people judge prospects, it's a bit lean at the moment. After the top tier of 8 or 9 guys, there's really a gigantic jumble that follows.

Honestly, if I had to pick one prospect that I'm, for lack of a better term, the most fascinated about in regards to their performance next year, I think I'd pick Justin Bristow. Live arm, another year of health, good athleticism - I really think he could take a major leap next year and be considered one of our system's top arms by year's end. Jon Nagel also fascinates me as another under-the-radar guy, and to be honest, I'm still fascinated by Dan McDaniel a tiny bit (though the reports were bad, I wonder how much the injury played a factor). Tzu-An Wang fascinates me to no end (seems like he has loads of potential). Positionally, there's the standard replies of Castro/Jackson/Vitters. Where Jovan Rosa is, what position he plays, and how he does fascinates me. Some may remember I was quite high on Jovan Rosa (well, those that saw me post over at another site). I still like the bat, although it seems quite clear now that the doubles power he has will never develop into significant HR power. That said, if he can find the old rhythm he had (reports from A+ seemed to suggest he was going for the long ball too much), who knows. Furthermore, if he can stick at catcher ... Rebel Ridling also fascinates me a bit ... partly because of the name. I'm very curious to see if his bat can play at the upper level, though, and he has one asset that our system doesn't have a bunch of - power. I'm still quite intrigued with Wesley Darvill, although not as intrigued after hearing about the arm limitations. That said, here's a kid who has plus speed now, and is expected to develop power. Only problem is, no one expects him to keep that speed while he develops his power. What if he does? There's no guarantees on body projections. There's a few others, but yeah, Bristow would top the list of guys that I am fascinated to follow this upcoming season.

Eh, I think that's underselling Bristow quite a bit. Bristow arguably has the 2nd best arm in the group. I also want to McNutt succeed getting stretched out before jumping on him. It's easy to forget that, after 2008, the scouting report on Dan McDaniel was mid-90's fastball (4-seamer), low 90's 2-seamer, plus curve, decent slider, decent change. Stuff didn't carry over to starting (or maybe he got hurt). I'm also not sure McNutt definitively has a better arm than Bristow. Bristow has a bit more growth potential, and was throwing mid-90's late in the year.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Brett Jackson and Kyler Burke as possible middle of the order bats. The latter has to improve his slugging against lefties, but if he does, that's a potential big time power bat that has shown discipline. There's some expectation on 20-25 HR power from Brett, and if that happens, if he provides a solid all around offense, that'd be fine as a 3-hole guy for me.

I believe that his raw speed is solid-good. Perhaps not the gushy 70 that Jason Churchill gave him, but solid to good. He just doesn't have the game speed in terms of base running, which is where you get the below-average speed comments (Adam Foster at PP was looking at C-1st times, and KG had similar reports from scouts).

cabrera at 31? That one is sort of surprising, even if it's a gigantic cluster down there. He didn't even really register for me. I'll have to go revisit that ... nothing too impressive statistically. I know he's got a live arm.

intriguing that Raley is in there. I like Raley's upside a lot, but 10th seems a bit high for me.

Two random comments - Rhee - His frame is also one that, until he proves otherwise, people will wonder whether or not he has the endurance. Another comp I've used for Cashner has been Kevin Gregg.

Good breaking ball, fb is a bit average in the low 90's so overall, probably not great stuff, but for a LOOGY role, potentially could be great if the control is better.

Vitters wasn't on Mayo's list last year. I believe Samardzija surprised and made it at 50th. The Castro comments, for those too lazy to go over there and check http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=7962336&content_id=7150953

I'll make one prediction for the heck of it - Justin Bristow explodes in 2010, ending the year at AA, showing mid-90's heat and good secondary stuff. He gets a cup of tea late in 2011, is up and down in 2012, and earns a rotation spot in 2013. Entering 2015, he is our number 4 starter, with people believing that he may kick it up one more notch now that he has some experience.

Brewers system could improve quite a bit next year if their young arms flourish. 7th surprises me, but if you are as high on Castro as Law is, and aren't down on any of our other top prospects, then I could see it.

I'm not sure if this is allowed or not, but someone at BCB posted BA's Top 30 list, along with BA's Top 5 org rankings and where the Cubs ranked (15th). If this is a problem, feel free to delete. BCB Link http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/1/26/1270566/baseball-america-top-30-and-the I'm not gung ho about that back part of the list. It's alright, but not gung-ho on Lake making the top 30, and I think McNutt at 16 is too high for my tastes.

BP's List is out. Just copying and pasting the free stuff. Nothing that surprising. We knew he wasn't as high as others on Starlin. I half-expected him to downgrade Starlin to a 4-star from all his public comments, but it seems like all he was doing was showing caution which is fair. A bit surprised all three arms of our top arms were 3-stars for him. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9978

I really hope Cashner can increase his stamina and improve that change. Would be nice to have a guy that we can point to as a potential ace in the system.

I guess as a side comment, I'd note that too often, the difference between a solid system and a bad system isn't that much (difference between good and solid is wider). It can be as little as one draft. Right now, the 2008 draft is a big reason why our system has jumped. Certainly, there are other factors, such as our international signings (Castro, Lee, and others), netting youngsters in trades (Kyler Burke). It netted our top 3 arms, and a 4th guy (Flaherty) that I believe is a top 10 prospect. The organization loves Logan Watkins. The organization's pitcher of the year this year came from that draft (Coleman) and there's some solid arms to watch, like Justin Bristow, Jon Nagel, Jeff Beliveau. Rebel Ridling was solid for a 25th rounder. I still have some hope for Dan McDaniel, and guys like Shafer and Cerda can't be completely written off yet. Some other decent system options, with some borderline-to-decent potential for the bigs, came from that draft, like Luis Flores, Michael Brenly (backup catchers) Tony Campana (can't rule out his speed finding him some bench role), James Leverton (hey, lefties get opportunities ... and he still has a touch more potential). I'm not lumping everything into that, though. I'm a Wilken fan (I can excuse Wilken's first two drafts a bit ... lack of picks in the first draft, and 07 seemed like a "fill the positional depth gaps" draft). I like the approach in finding athletes. There seems to be a bit of a "projectable collegian" approach, which is interesting. I think I went from "eh" on the 2009 draft to becoming more positive on my outlook on it by season's end. I certainly don't expect it to be as good as 08 has been, but I think it's another step in the right direction. I also believe that the Cubs started identifying better coaches. I guess one of the "turning points" for me, a sign that they were really progressing as a system, came with the hiring of Mark Riggins. Showed the organization wasn't limiting itself.

I'll probably ask this every few months until I get an answer, but I was perusing AzPhil's stuff over at TCR (depth chart, rule 5 eligible and what not) and noticed that Jordan Latham was getting listed again. I never did find out what happened last year - was it personal issues? He was a really promising pen arm. I always wanted to see him tried as a starter, but I remember thinking 2 years ago that I thought Jordan was close to Blake in ability as a pen arm.

Yes, I expect Brett, barring a collapse, will get a shot at Tennessee. As for the 2nd question, out of our top 10, I think at least one of the big three arms, if not 2, will see the bigs, likely in some pen capacity. I'd guess Jay Jackson around midseason, and perhaps Cashner or Carpenter later. The reason I lean Jackson before Cashner is because I think the Cubs FO will play out the Cashner starting thing as long as possible. It's easy to forget that Jay Jackson could easily become a dominant pen arm (could focus on only one of his breaking balls to pair with a upper 90's fb; his control concerns wouldn't be as big an issue). I think Castro will see the bigs barring a collapse. Whether it's September or earlier, only time will tell. Part of that may be dictated by how the club is doing - if we're playing well and in the race, they might just wait until late in the year to give him a look. If not, if we're floundering a bit, then he could be up sooner. I mean, other guys will definitely see some time. Scott Maine and John Gaub could both be pen options, along with Parker. It's not hard to see a catcher get called up - all it takes is an injury. Darwin Barney may see some time as well. If an injury happens, not hard to see Jim Adduci up as a depth OF. Colvin should definitely see some time. As a dark, dark, sleeper type, I wouldn't rule out the idea that another middle infielder, perhaps LeMahieu or Flaherty, sees big league time late in the year. But I'd put that on the deep backburner.

I really wouldn't use the round they were picked in as a huge factor in such a discussion. Everyone understood that Carpenter dropped due to his health, otherwise he had "first round pedigree" as well. I've got a hard time seeing Carpenter outside of our top 10, and to be honest, I've got a hard time seeing him out of our top 8. The fastball/curveball is an excellent combination, and the changeup is at least average. Add in level, and I think he deserves to be high. My own top 10 right now sits as 1. Castro 2. Brett Jackson 3. Vitters 4. Jay Jackson 5. Cashner 6. Carpenter 7. Lee 8. Burke 9. Flaherty 10. Rhee

THT has put up their Cubs top 10 list (h/t TCR) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-10-prospects-for-2010-chicago-cubs-and-st.-louis-cardinals1/ I don't know anything on Matt Hagen. Also, cutting and pasting what he typed ... but if that's not allowed, please cut it out. Quick thoughts - I think he's the only person I've seen suggest that Vitters is a good defender at 3rd. - Surprisingly low on Cashner. I can understand some people not wanting to rank pen arms higher, though. - Carpenter only potential "back of rotation starter"? I think that's a bit harsh on Carpenter. I think he at least has mid-rotation potential.

Sickels has updated the Cubs 38 man list by cutting Junior Lake and replacing it with Scott Maine, a move I agree with. He's posted his brief Junior Lake thoughts over at www.minorleagueball.com in a post he's made.

I don't think that gets emphasized enough. That's part of the reason why I still rank Jay ahead of Andrew. Now, the main reason is that I buy Jay's starting potential and am not sold on Cash. That said, a lot of people argue Cashner ahead as an elite pen arm, but Jay could end up being a stud pen arm as well. Those two factors combined keeps him fairly easily ahead of CAshner for me, even though Cashner has the most upside of any of our arms.

not exactly earth-shattering news, but BA lists the Cubs having signed Jeff Kennard. Looks like a potentially decent AA/AAA pen arm.