toonsterwu

I've got to think that Candelario and perhaps Penalver might be brought into the country for instructs. Daniel Sanchez has been quite disappointing.

Nitpicking, but wasn't it 8th? I don't recall. That said, I think most of us were surprised at that high ranking.

Saying the obvious, but Nick Struck needs a lot of time to refine his stuff. Watching him yesterday, it felt like some of the stuff he could get away with against less advanced hitters, getting them to chase and so forth, he couldn't get away with it in AAA.

I can't imagine they'll get anyone more from Latin America who would require a bonus over $500,000 but I'd expect a few lower 6-figure bonus guys. Might see some more expensive action in Taiwan or South Korea. I'm pretty sure the Taiwan market is a bit thin for this year, at least, relative to what's left in the prep ranks (an arm or two in the Japanese leagues could perhaps command some decent bonuses). A couple kids left (Pirates signed some), maybe a couple low 6 figure guys. Not sure about the South Korean market, though.

2 cents on Wilken's drafts: 06 - I've always been inclined to give him a mulligan on this one, due to the missing picks as a result of the pen signings, but if you want to chalk this up as a below average draft, I've got no significant issues. The over-slot misses (Andersen, Rundle, Huseby) were very disappointing. The draft and follows (that I remember) were disappointing - Jovan Rosa flashed a healthy amount of potential but never developed, and Jordan Latham is only in A+ now and has had off-field issues. Jake Renshaw did help net us Trachsel a few years back, for whatever it's worth. It wouldn't surprise me if Steve Clevenger was the most useful piece from this draft, as a backup backstop. Marcus Hatley, Nate Samson, Blake Parker, and Matt Camp are the only other guys left in the system (I think), besides Shark/Colvin/Latham/Clevenger. The most intriguing of the group may be the hard throwing Hatley, who has taken the long road but is showing some ability that had some folks compare him to Michael Wuertz. Outside of Colvin going a half-round early, I don't recall anyone being an over-draft of that level (IIRC, maybe Muldowney, but it's been awhile). 07 - I view this as an average draft, not great, not below-average, though. Vitters is ... Vitters. No need to beat that bush again, as we do it enough in other places. Donaldson will likely get some more opportunities in the big and was a key part in that Harden deal. Thomas never developed, but did get to the upper levels. Darwin Barney should be able to fill a utility role in the bigs. Casey Lambert was hurt and is still working his way back. He had good LOOGY potential at one point, though. Guyer has really blossomed in the last year and seems quite likely to see some decent time in the bigs, and Marquez Smith is a capable upper level minor leaguer who might be able to fill a bench role in the bigs at some point if the right situation occurs. James Russell is a very solid pen lefty if utilized as a LOOGY (just gets shelled against righties). Things weren't especially pretty after the Russell pick - Craig Muschko had a few decent years in our system, Sasser and Sommer filled system roles. No star power (yet), but enough guys that will likely see the bigs that I think this can qualify as an average draft. 08 - This was the draft that was really exciting early on. It's since weakened a bit, as all drafts do as they work up the ladder. The pitching heavy draft really pushed our system rankings up the ladder. Cashner's rehab will be something to watch, as he offers the Cubs a legitimate TOR arm. Flaherty looks like a good bet to see time in the bigs, and has pop that makes it so that filling a corner role is fine, and pop that the system lacks. If Carpenter can figure out his control a bit, he's got a shot to stick in the pen. Jay Jackson was the early riser from this draft, and has since settled down, but still holds enough intrigue to think of him potentially making the bigs at some point. Matt Cerda's failure to succeed as a catcher was disappointing, but he's filling a solid enough role in the system. Casey Coleman, Luis Flores, Tony Campana, Jeff Beliveau, Logan Watkins, David Cales, Rebel Ridling have all filled useful roles in the system. The potential of Cashner's star power, plus a bevy of solid guys makes me think of this as an above average to good draft. 09 - It's probably even a touch early to really grade the 08 draft. BJax was a solid late first pick who should see the bigs at some point in 2012. LeMahieu has to keep developing pop, but he'll see time in the bigs. The three lefties are solid enough picks, and all three probably have decent shots to see some time in the bigs. Darvill still holds intrigue, but is a long way away. Whitenack was the big breakout guy until his injury. Here's hoping he bounces back. Charles Thomas/Justin Bour hold some intrigue. The late round finds of McNutt/Struck have been two of the bright spots of the draft for me. Far too early to make any big judgments on this draft, but I'm apt to lean to this draft as being above average to good for now. It is a draft that probably needs all the key guys named to develop (for it to be viewed as a solid to good draft), since the 11-30 rounds of the draft won't really have much of a return. 10 - I think most speak of this as the Hayden Simpson draft, but the exciting thing for me were the young prep arms taken.

That was a good outing from Alberto. Let's see if he can keep it up, but he was 92-94 on the fastball, and showed a nasty slider at times. Control is going to be an issue for him as a starter, but if his stuff is at the level it was at yesterday, there's no reason why he can't make it as a pen arm at the very least. Seeing Jay Jackson and Alberto Cabrera show good stuff the last two times out (Jay was in the low 90's, touching 93/94 occasionally) makes me feel a bit more comfortable that those two might be able to make the bigs in the pen. Both still need work to have a shot to make it as a starter, but there's just been such ... inconsistent performances and mixed reports on both this year that it's good to see them doing well, giving us some upper level arms to have hope on.

Plate discipline/enough fundamentals being taught aren't directly under Wilken's purview, though. I guess, you could argue that he might have a tendency to select aggressive players, but even then, it's not as if he hasn't gotten some guys that understand how to take pitches/have good approaches at the plate (BJax/Flaherty). The issue of fundamentals as it relates to organizational philosophy would likely have more to do with Hendry/Fleita. I'm also curious who, in the last five years (Wilken's watch), has come up and lack fundamentals. It seems like you are implying that a lot of players have bad fundamentals. Obviously, no one is perfect in every area you've listed, but the tone I get from your post is that this is a fundamentally bad system. Jae-Hoon Ha has a questionable approach at the plate, but he is fundamentally sound in a lot of areas, from his swing, to his defensive ability. I don't know - I just feel like your comment is painting such broad strokes that I am curious about this laundry list of players that you seem to think are fundamentally poor players.

In an attempt to steer this back to the OP's initial discussion - I think Wilken has done a solid job, but one has to wonder how much he was limited by the previous regime. In the first two years under Ricketts, there has been a bit more gambles on prep players earlier in the draft. Is that a byproduct of the draft classes? Perhaps, but the Wilken I recall from the Blue Jays/Rays took a few more prep chances than he did his first few years in the Cubs system. Right now, our system is probably a bit below average. How much below depends on subjective views on talent. I don't think it's a bad system, bottom five type system (like we were about 5-6 years ago), and I think the system could really blossom in a year or two, due to the pitching (assuming things go well). The pitching side of the system is a bit stronger than the positional side, and that is probably a product of Cubs philosophy to focus more on pitching (as Wilken has acknowledged before, IIRC). The young arms in the low levels are quite exciting and intriguing. Many will falter, but if one or two can blossom, that will be quite useful for the long run. It's about maximizing value from your talent base, and this has to do with the GM/player development folks knowing who to keep and who to move when their value is high. Wilken brought a philosophy to the system that I did not think was there with the Stockstills (or at least, as evident). No philosophy is perfect, and the focus on athletes can often lead to a lack of other key skills in a system, but it was a philosophy that had some sound merit behind it. The focus on collegians did add some depth to the system that was sorely needed in the mid-part of the last decade. Overall, I'm wary of losing Wilken because of how bad things were at one point, but I'm also aware that there could be a lot of improvements made to the system and that there are definitely guys that might be able to be as good, if not better. The concern about the lack of corner power has been something that many of us have noted for awhile, and it's possible previous limitations have hampered Wilken (and it's possible that this draft class could address some concerns).

Antigua has been rather good in Daytona's pen. Going to be interesting to see if he can get in a good start. Some bad luck in Peoria early, although the HR ball plagued him. Loosen is at a much more appropriate level for his skill and development. Cabrera's been some sort of awful with his control in Iowa. He did have horrid control in AA last year before improving it in Tennessee to start this year.

Outside of the Keith Law thing (can't seem to find a link for that right now ... where was it again?), was there another report of mid-80's? And wasn't the Law report high-80's? I know JJax was throwing low 90's for a stretch this year. All that said, while I am excited about his solid stretch, and while it seems like a measure of bad luck factored into his struggles in Iowa this year, he's still a flyball pitcher whose K rate is still declining. The improved BB rates can only take him so far. It just seems like he might be more valuable as a pen arm, where his velocity might be better, allowing his slider to play off it a bit better.

I like Wright, but he's really a system OF type. His talent/skill level just doesn't fit in a corner role. While he may be more of a prospect than the other two, both those guys have enough skill to perhaps justify an occasional call-up, depth spot on a big league roster. I think it's quite hard for me to believe that Ty Wright could possibly fill such a role, although I hope he can prove me wrong.

Well, let me answer that by first saying that, what I thought earlier in the year was that his perceived ceiling, based on last year, was a bit over-hyped. I say that in an effort to note that it's not that he can't reach that top level ceiling if development goes well, just that he was a bit over-hyped. In saying that, I think he's got a chance to be a starting caliber arm. I question, and I fully acknowledge I probably over-hyped him in comments at the end of last year as well (although I never moved him ahead of Archer), if this is a TOR type of potential talent. I see him more as a good mid-rotation arm, assuming positive enough development, maybe a borderline 2 type starter. I'll be glad if this ends up being wrong in that he's better than this.

ah, ok. Will be curious if Jay Jackson can have a third decent or better start.

That sounds awfully ... early to feel that way. I think McNutt was a bit overhyped (at least, I think his ceiling was overhyped), but he was rushed a bit, has been banged up. He needs innings to work on consistency. I expect to see him in AFL to get some extra innings.

After a horrific first two games, Reed has actually settled down and gave two decent-solid outings. Let's see if he can continue it. I don't recall his specific stuff off the top, but I don't believe he's expected to be a high K guy as he moves up the ladder (for some reason, I'm thinking he's a groundball type pitcher). We'll see how that develops, but here's hoping he can continue putting solid outings out and developing.

Assuming that the Perez move is setting the stage for big organizational shifts (after all, maybe a James Adduci is ready to come off DL and they thought they didn't need to keep Perez around anymore), one possibility that should trouble me a bit, but doesn't, would be having Szczur go to Tennessee. I should be bothered by this, but for some reason, I'm not. That could lead to Chen going to Peoria, and maybe have Geiger go to Boise (as Na could take over in CF).

As a side note, was skimming over the DSL rosters, and it looks like the Cubs are shifting some DSL Cubs1 guys to DSL Cubs2. The guys that stood out were Jeffrey Baez, Xavier Batista, Carlos Galvez. Looks maybe like an effort to bulk up DSL 2 for a push.

I hope someone asks them about Simpson and whether or not they think his issues have to do with health from the recovery, or something more concerning.

I'd take a PTBN if they ate a lot of Soriano's contract. That said, between Soriano through 2014 and Ramirez through 2012, I'd be rather surprised if they opted for the former. Even with the option vesting for Ramirez, I'd want some decent talent in return if a team came calling. Few teams can probably afford the move, but with so few impact bats available, I do wonder if a team will begrudgingly offer a decent deal for Aramis.

I might. I don't think Soto is a part of our next core, he's going to get more costly in the near future. Montero is an elite prospect. If we could get Montero for Soto, I'd have to think hard about it. That said, don't see the Yankees moving for Soto anyways. They'll probably use Russ Martin as a bridge to Romine/Sanchez.

Interesting reasoning here, bumping Golden so high despite only 100 professional PA, then holding Baez down because you don't want to bump him too quickly. Low A numbers are very difficult to judge. Fair enough. Again, I did this in about 30 minutes. Not exactly the strongest reasoning behind each pick. Although, I guess if I was to defend it right now, I'd argue better power ceiling would be one factor why I would keep Golden ahead of Baez. Now, if one thought Baez could stay in the MI, that would change things. Like I noted, though, gap between 4 and 13 isn't huge in my mind. If someone argued Baez/Golden higher, I could buy it. And as a side note, this isn't some sort of bias against Baez, as I was very much on-board with the pick (my top positional guy on the board, and my 4th option at that point, so it was fine).

He didn't really cross my mind. If I sat down and thought about it longer, I think Jay and Alberto Cabrera could both slot into a top 50 or so, so maybe they should've crossed my mind (particularly if both move to the pen, where their fastballs would be bigger weapons), but they really didn't cross my mind as a top 20 possibility (not saying all those guys really did, but those names did cross my mind, however briefly).

Was trying to hammer out a list since we are nearing the ASB, and this is what I have as of now (I'll note where I'd put in some 2011 additions). Just a quick effort. 1. Brett Jackson. Is Szczur a better talent? Yes. Is his talent enough to compensate for the difference in readiness? Debatable. I might change my mind by season's end (and maybe change my mind an hour from now), as Szczur's approach is solid, and while I've always thought Jackson's ceiling was under-rated, few guys reach their ceilings and he's definitely been inconsistent this year after a hot start, and the K issue has become more glaring. As of now, looks like a better Drew Stubbs, which isn't bad, but far from what some hopes were at the end of 2010. I do wonder if it's in Brett Jackson's best interest for a CF like Szczur to move fast, forcing Jackson to a corner where he could bulk up a bit and focus on developing his power stroke. 2. Matt Szczur. It all comes down to how much power he develops. If he can become a 10-15 HR guy (if not better), then he's a very good prospect. If not, he's still a solid prospect. He's still raw enough that hope/potential is certainly a factor in his development, and he's shown a very solid approach this year for a fairly raw collegiate bat. I wonder how much time he's going to spend in Daytona. Nothing to base it on, just wonder if he might be in Tennessee sooner than later. 3. Trey McNutt. It's certainly been a disappointing year for our upper level pitching, McNutt included. Injuries have hurt his development, but while he hasn't been overmatched in AA (and has held his own), I do wonder if more time in the A ball ranks would've helped with his curve/change consistency. I really wouldn't mind seeing him spend the entire year in AA, and perhaps start 2012 in AA. There should be no rush for a rebuilding club. ________ After the top 3, things are a crapshoot. For now, I'm thinking 4. Reggie Golden. This is more default, as I have a tough time putting Vitters here, and I'm not sure Flaherty merits it. Ha's offense collapse makes it hard for me to turn to him here. Furthermore, despite the spring weight concerns, Golden has been, as of now, showing quite well in Boise, and his bat/approach seems better than anticipated. Add in his big time ceiling, and eh. 5. Ryan Flaherty. Is Vitters/Ha ceiling higher? Sure. Flaherty's showing legit corner power, though, and I feel much more comfortable about his chances of success in the bigs. So I guess this is my floor nod in this run-through. * Javier Baez - I think, as of now, I'd slot Baez somewhere here. I know some will push him up higher, but I've always been a bit hesitant to do that this quick. Tis me. This, of course, assumes he signs. 6. Jae-Hoon Ha. I could go either way with Ha/Vitters. On the one hand, Vitters bat had a nice run at a higher level while Ha's was slumping. On the other hand, Ha plays a premium position well. Let's see if he can finish strong offensively. 7. Josh Vitters. He's scuffled a bit since coming back from the beaning. Prior to that, his bat was showing some flickering signs of life. Still doesn't generate enough power production in games, due to his approach. 8. DJ LeMahieu. I could put him higher. The idiotic promotion really bothered me. Will be curious about his bat in the PCL. Still prospect eligible, although that could change by season's end. 9. Welington Castillo Had a nice run in June with the bat. Let's see if he can follow it up. For now, though, despite guys with higher ceilings, he's at a key position and is close to ready, while still raw enough that you could see some room for development. 10. Nick Struck. Was toying with the idea of personal favorite Ben Wells here, but Struck, while not having Wells ceiling, is further along and has a good enough ceiling. Of course, the Cubs have rushed him up like crazy. 11. Ben Wells. Struggled in two of five outings in Boise so far, but has the ceiling to really be special if he develops right. Is getting his ground balls, and as he develops his secondary offerings, should improve his K's. 12. Robert Whitenack. Had he continued to show well, he would've been a top 5 guy. Injuries knock him down. Could see a case of dropping him further, but this seems fair for now, as we wait to see his recovery process and if his fastball still shows that well. 13. Dallas Beeler. Another guy that we've really rushed up the ladder. That said, ceiling's good enough and performance in Low A was solid enough that I can slot him here. I'm not going to hold his AA struggles so far against him when he shouldn't be at this level. ___________ This sort of feels like another line in the system for me. The difference between Golden/Beeler isn't that much for me right now. The upper level guys left on the board don't have huge ceilings, and the lower level guys upside guys are too raw and without the elite ceiling of a Wells/Golden for me to push them higher. Then, there's these two, who I could move up a few spots depending on how I feel ... if they sign. * Dillon Maples - If we somehow sign Maples, I think my initial inclination would be to slot him somewhere in the teens, and in this run-through, this seems somewhat appropriate. He did make BA's First Team HS All-American list. * Dan Vogelbach. I think I would slot him here if he signed. Wow, this is difficult for me to come up with who I would put at 14th, and it certainly isn't a positive difficult. 14. Dae-Eun Rhee. I'm honestly scratching for a guy here. He's shown enough flashes that I'll be curious if he's better with more time away from surgery. Still, the inconsistencies make slotting him here bothersome for me. 15. Kevin Rhoderick. I'm not a fan of putting pure pen arms, unless they have elite closing potential, in the top 20, so this one bothers me tremendously, but ... who? Carpenter's control struggles in the minors, along with his big league control problems, is bothersome. Dolis has a bigger fastball, but honestly, I like Rhoderick's fastball life and his slider seems better than Dolis'. Are the young arms good enough yet to jump them this high? Seems debatable to me. 16. Rafael Dolis. I don't know why I keep thinking Francis Beltran. Just not sold that Dolis is a late inning arm. Perhaps a power middle reliever. 17. Aaron Kurcz. I'm still somewhat tempted to slide Kurcz ahead a bit more. He's really been strong since the pen move. 18. Zach Rosscup. Was tempted to go with Kirk, but I'm not sure what the justification would be, and Rosscup has a better fastball (barely). 19. Austin Kirk. If his stuff got a bit better, I'd run him up the list. But a flyball guy with fringy stuff is more of a back of the rotation/pen profile. I mean, I could make the case that Raley's solid two months deserves to go ahead of him. 20. Hayden Simpson. I'll give him a mini-mulligan, but I'm starting to think that those who have wondered whether he had some arm concerns may be right. Contemplated: Ridling/Bour - I'm a bit stunned that I slid Bour out of the top 20, but both of these guys have seen their power production keep sliding. Ridling has shown some mini-signs of life and has more potential to be utilized around the field (corner outfield). Could slot them into the 16-20 area. Raley - ceiling just isn't good enough, but could slot him in the back end depending on how things go. Gaub - A LOOGY. Perhaps a good one, assuming he doesn't break down again, but still, a LOOGY. Beliveau - A super LOOGY perhaps, but a LOOGY nonetheless. I think I might take Beliveau over Gaub on a list, but still. Lake - Really should've kept him in A+. The bat's a mess in AA. Clevenger/Gibbs/Flores - Backup Backstop profiles push them down. Marwin Gonzalez - Really like him and really intrigued, but have to hear more about his defense at short to ponder top 20. Carpenter - Even his control in the bigs has been bad. Cerda/Watkins - Not enough power and too far away to warrant top 20 for now. Peralta/Cruz/Reed/Liria (and to a lesser extent, Wang, but the first four have significantly higher ceilings) - I really want to see a lot more. Chen/Geiger/Darvill - Too far away. Del Valle - To be fair, don't know enough to feel comfortable, particularly when he is far away. DSL Kids - Way too far. Sure, Candelario and Penalver sounds great. But way too far away. Batista/Hatley/Suarez - Possible late inning arms have to really dominate for me to turn to them in a top 20. Anyhow, a quick effort. From 15 and on, I could put a lot of guys into the mix (Reed/Peralta/Cruz/Liria/Bour/Raley/Believau/Gaub/Clevenger/Carpenter - guess that takes me to 30, but that's not in order). * I just realized I went all pitching from 11-20. That wasn't intentional. Simpson has been so bad that if I didn't grant a mulligan, he'd be easily out of the top 20, but I feel like my next guy up might be an arm over, say, Bour. I think I'd lean Liria, although Peralta and Cruz may be viewed as having better ceilings, but I do feel like Liria is a bit more polished than both. ** I'm also thinking that the gap from 15 to say, 35 isn't that big in our system. That's either a positive or a negative, depending on how one views the raw talent in the lower levels.

Just a step on the journey to the top 10. I really hope Garza can give us at least 3 more good years. How soon are you projecting him as a possible top 10 prospect? His bat has really come down to earth hard (this isn't to say he's been bad offensively, but his OPS the last three months has gone from .790 to .770 to .758 so far for June), and his defense is still a work in progress. Certainly, power isn't going to be a crucial part of his game, but I would think he would need to show some power consistency to merit top 10 prospect status. He should get enough time to work on his game, as Tim Beckham is solid enough that they probably won't rush Lee, so perhaps, if his power develops and his errors clean up, I could see him as a top 10 type at some point, but I'm just curious when you think that can happen.

Marwin has been one of the bigger surprises for me this year. I've always been intrigued with his potential, since he does have some tools to work with, but he never put it together at the plate, and the Cubs gave him ample opportunity. I haven't heard enough on his defense this year, though, and I still think he's more of a utility guy. Could find a role in the bigs because of his versatility.