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Don't think we have the chips to land Lincecum without giving up Castro, and as good as Lincecum is, it's probably not the wisest move to make at this point, to say the least.

I think I'd rather have Wells in the rotation ahead of Jurrjens, particularly when you factor in the costs associated with both, but also even just judging both guys by their own abilities. I'm just not a big fan. When he was able to reach mid-90's occasionally, he was mildly interesting. Now? I think he's getting hype as a result of being on good Braves teams. I'm also not that interested in Prado. On the cheap? Sure. I mean, it's not that I have great love for Vitters, and I sure have my concerns on Lake/Szczur, as well as concerns that Cashner might not be a starter, but that's a pretty big package to give up for an end of the rotation arm and a decent starter, IMO.

I'd guess that Vitters will play a little of 3rd, a little of LF, and a little of 1st. There's just too many guys that are currently slated to potentially get some AAA 3rd base time. That said, it really wouldn't surprise me if they asked Vitters to stay in AA for another year.

Still wonder about DeMarlo Hale. Theo obviously likes him enough - he interviewed him for the job that eventually went to Francona. that said, between Hale and Sveum, my hunch is that Sveum would be favored. No real reason why - just seemed like he was always viewed a notch ahead of Hale. That said, with many guys that are competing for the same jobs, we may not get our choice, as the Red Sox may get their pick ahead of us.

I think a better characterization would just be inability to make contact. He's definitely patient. Actually, I was trying to think of a word to note for his increasing aggressiveness outside of the zone, hence why I worded it that way. He makes solid contact on pitches in the strike zone, but when he's hacking/chasing pitches, he seems to get in trouble. Somewhat similar to the issues Brandon Wood has had to deal with, and it's debatable if major improvements can be made in that at this stage of his development.

there's also Arenado, who's probably considered the long-term answer if they don't involve him in a trade for Wright (who then would be the answer there) there's red flags with Stewart, but playing it safe gets us nowhere; we lost 91 games last year and we'll need to take some gambles to right the ship - Stewart would have very little downside because he comes with such little cost, and immense potential upside for cost efficiency there were similarly flags with Cameron Maybin and Franklin Morales, for example, and i'm excited for co-GMs who have shown the willingness and foresight to capitalize on other GMs' impatience Don't get me wrong, I don't mind taking a gamble on Stewart. He'd be 2nd or 3rd on my list of outcomes at 3rd. I'm just not sold it's going to be that easy to pry him away. Arenado is a good year or two away. They didn't want to go with Wigginton last year, and this market doesn't exactly offer a clearcut FA upgrade outside of Aramis, who they are rumored to not be interested in. That leaves going after someone like David Wright, but then you'd be offering a lot of talent up to land him.

What I never liked about this Sandberg love was that he deserved the managerial job. Loved Sandberg as a player, but didn't think he was the best candidate last year (that said, the better candidate don't always work out), and I didn't think he would be the best candidate this year. I thought, with time, and with a willingness to become a major league coach, that he might make a good manager someday. A lot of the fandom blasted Hendry for not giving Sandberg the chance, but the reality was, Sandberg was pushed aggressively by Hendry and Co. up the ladder when many other qualified guys would have never worked their way up that fast. What we should be hoping for is a modern, smart manager. Despite the media's attempts to paint Sandberg as becoming more modern (was it Wittenmeyer that wrote about Sandberg's willingness to talk stats?), he was still more of an old-school guy, beloved by more old-school folks (Pat Gillick, the Cardinals). He may very well end up doing a great job for them, and I wish him the best, but I think this is the best move for the Cubs, to find a manager who's vision fits in line with our front office's.

Kouzmanoff is a free agent unless the lists out there are wrong.

Without putting much time into it, Ramirez: 2.5 WAR Baker full-time: 0 WAR Best available $2M stopgap (Betemit/Cairo/Hairston/Chavez): 1.0 WAR i hate all three of these options (well, Ramirez, much less so) the correct answer is signing Ian Stewart and getting 2-3 WAR for $4M(ish) -or- trading (McNutt? Vitters? Szczur?) for Headley and getting 3-4 WAR for $3M You are assuming Stewart will definitely come free and be non-tendered. I'm just not sure that it's a lock to happen. I actually think Colorado might end up holding onto him. It comes down to whether or not they can find a better option (like David Wright), but do they really want to pony up the chips for Wright? Also, Stewart does have some flags. I like his potential land wouldn't mind a gamble on him, but IIRC, there's been some work ethic concerns along with his aggressive style, for lack of a better word, at the plate.

Gameday isn't the best way to assess much, but it looks like McNutt was victimized off his 4-seamer (1st inning double by Tim Beckham, and 3rd inning home runs by Beckham and Terdoslavich) and a hanging curve to Bethancourt. Looking at Cashner's gameday makes me feel a bit better about that outing - looks like he's in full, pump it in pen mode and Bethancourt and Colon simply managed to catch up to two high 90's fastballs before Mattison caught him on a changeup. Mildly surprised that Cashner threw more change-ups versus his slider. Wonder if this has been going on most of Fall League and I just hadn't been paying attention, or if this is specific to one game.

Spit-balling another name for 3rd base, but I wonder if the Red Sox will shop Jed Lowrie. He's entering his Arb 1 year, coming off a banged up season which saw Marco Scutaro reclaim the starting job and get his option for 2012 picked up. At some point, Jose Iglesias will likely get a look because of the quality of his glove. For those concerned about Headley's power, or just pessimistic on his ability to develop it once he is away from Petco, Lowrie likely would offer a similar ISOP to what Headley did last year, if not better. He has the solid approach that Theo and Co. want. If healthy, he's probably still a solid middle infielder (although I never liked him at short, more at 2nd), but he can handle 3rd. They have Will Middlebrooks at AA for 3rd, and Pedroia isn't getting moved. Of course, there are some opposing thoughts that come up. Scutaro isn't likely to be brought back after 2012, and Iglesias' bat is still fringy. With 2 more cost-controlled years, they can hold onto him to use as a way to bridge the gap, or as a fallback plan in case Iglesias' bat forces their hand. He's also reportedly one of the few friends Jacoby Ellsbury has on the team after Ellsbury's issues a couple years ago, and with Jacoby as a prime cog there now, they may want to keep him a bit happy. Perhaps the biggest issue are his splits. He can smoke lefties as a righty, but has struggled some as a lefthanded hitter against righties. Thus, he would somewhat replicate what Jeff Baker brings to the table. Furthermore, if you go down this road, it almost seems like you might as well save whatever resources it would take to get him and just let Ryan Flaherty get a shot. But just spit-balling ideas.

I'm very much in favor of Headly over Ramirez, if the Padres are willing to move him for a reasonable price. He is a better defender and entering his prime. Any idea of what the Padres would require to trade him? It really is still just speculation at this point. There isn't really a single 3rd base name that's been discussed as a trade candidate that will definitely be available. Ian Stewart isn't a lock to be non-tendered or traded, David Wright isn't a guarantee to be moved as he can opt out of 2013 if traded (and the Mets could see if he rebounds in the new Citi Field first). The Padres don't have any serious payroll issues and it's debatable if they have a 3rd baseman that is ready to takeover that they want to turn to (Darnell's glove is sketchy at 3rd and Forsythe's bat is fringy for 3rd). If Headley is moved, though, it'd likely be somewhat costly in terms of prospects. He's a guy entering his prime with 3 cost-controlled years who is likely to be at least around a 3 WAR player for the next few years. There's a chance his power goes back up once he gets out of Petco (and there's hope that it would more than what the home/road split indicates - he made adjustments to his swing and approach, positively, to accommodate for playing in that home park). My guess is that it would take a package starting with McNutt or Szczur to get them interested (I'd obviously hope for less, but I think considering the above dynamics at a weak position, it'd be justified on their part to start things there), but that's my take.

I'm not sure the Royals will move Billy Butler. He's always been viewed as a DH 1st, and a 1st baseman 2nd. I think they feel that their young offensive core is close to ready to take off and I could see them get aggressive and try to and find the pitching to make a push.

Totally off topic, but reading the tweet from Olney about the Yankees willing to talk pitching makes me wonder what they might give up to get Matt Garza? Garza's number 2 on my list in terms of guys that I don't think should be dealt ... but if they offer a boatload, it would be ... interesting as they have the chips to offer.

Carpenter makes a ton of sense for them in that, they likely will need a power arm in middle relief/setup depending on what happens with Bard, Papelbon, and the rotation (Bard could become the closer, or shift to the rotation). I'd be mildly surprised if it's just Carpenter, though. I'd be totally find sending Carpenter and a low level player over.

Considering their propensity to focus on getting good athletes, along with Hoyer's comments about looking at free agents that age well, I do wonder how much interest they are going to have in Fielder considering the general concerns many folks have had about Fielder's body, whether it is fair or not.

Honestly, I'm generally in favor of not making trades this offseason. The only one I've really gotten behind is the Danks trade and that's one that I'd equate very much to getting Garza. I'd be more than willing to move McNutt in a package for Danks (though that one may take Cashner). I guess my thought is if McNutt's value has dropped that much in a year's time then you're selling low on him if you deal him now. Unless you really believe he won't rebound, then it seems like better use of the asset to keep him and give him the opportunity to rebound. If that means don't make a trade of significance this offseason, I'm ok with that - especially since our needs could more than adequately be filled through FA (as easy as signing Pujols/Prince/Wilson can be). Overall, I'm not that enthused about making trades this off-season either. The system isn't really in a position to do THAT much in the trade market. That said, I would make an exception for a positional player entering his prime, is cost-controlled, and is at a position that we have a huge concern on and no long-term solution in sight (Vitters might not stick at 3rd, Flaherty/LeMahieu are still works in progress there, and Baez is far, far away. Don't know how Junior Lake would look if he was moved that direction). Now, it comes down to the evaluation of said player, and thankfully, more knowledgeable folks are doing it than me, but I think Headley is a guy I would gamble on (I'm not that interested in Callaspo - he's a far better fielder, but he's older and I'd like a little pop out of the position). I wouldn't get ridiculous with an offer - I wouldn't do McNutt/Szczur for him, but I'd consider one of them and another prospect or two. That said, I can understand concerns on Headley. He's an average defensive third baseman, and while I like the fact that he adjusted his swing to deal with his environment, and steadily showed improvement in his approach, there's no guarantee that he can strike a better power/contact/discipline balance. I'm not all that sure that I would be aggressive on any other position, including pitcher (the cost it would take to land Danks would be far higher (assuming we even have the chips that would intrigue Kenny, which is debatable), and combine that with the likely extension he'd need, and I'm just not a fan of it when I view 2012 as a steppingstone year. While many of the potential FA pitchers in the next FA class may not be available next year, there's bound to be a few guys that make it, and I'd rather save up the resources and spend on FA pitching). 3rd, though, is unique in the lack of system options that are close to ready, unless Vitters makes significant improvements defensively and a lack of prime targets out there in FA or a trade.

Last year, McNutt was largely considered a tiny notch below Archer. This year, I think that notch is wider and I think McNutt's value now is probably quite a bit lower than Archer's was last year (but obviously, that's my opinion). The one thing that few challenge about Archer is his stuff. It's there, and he's viewed as having a potential floor of a late inning arm. There's a bit more questions about McNutt's stuff and mechanics this year. I think that's related to his injuries, and I've said before that the breaking ball I saw from him this summer still looked really good, but you do hear a few more snippets of concern. If you view McNutt as only going in a trade that can net us a more solid elite guy, then I'm not sure there's any trade that we can effectively make this off-season. I can defend McNutt, but there are a lot of power arms that flash some potential on the breaking ball. Again, just my opinion, but 3 years of a cost controlled positional asset in his prime, at a weak (someone did a study awhile ago, forgot where, probably fangraphs, where 3rd basemen just weren't hitting all that much) who is around a 3 WAR player and could be better in a different situation is going to cost a solid talent and more.

Wow, McNutt's a bit much I'm thinking. I could see them asking for him, but I'm not sure I'm comfortable giving that much up for either. I'm thinking I'd only give McNutt in a package for a cornerstone type player and I'm just not sure Headley or Stewart is that. I like McNutt, but too much for a package involving Headley? We're talking about a young third baseman hitting his prime with 2 cost-controlled years left versus a package led by a AA power arm with some issues. I've seen enough of McNutt this year to think that he's going a bit under-hyped relative to other prospects, but there are definitely some issues to work out. But anyhow, that's me. McNutt wouldn't be an issue for me. How much more than McNutt would be an issue. I could also see them target Matt Szczur to headline a package instead. I'm as guilty as the next fan in occasionally overhyping our prospects, but we really don't have an elite prospect, or an upper level guy that's close to elite. Brett Jackson is the closest. Relative to what teams tend to look for in deals involving prospects, I think that needs to be kept in mind. Don't get me wrong - if Headley's cost is significantly lower than a package starting with McNutt or Szczur ... then heck yeah. Edit: I'm not sure I keep on thinking Headley only has 2 years of cost-controlled left. He should have three. I keep forgetting that Chase got Super Two status this year, and hence that's why he's on Arb 2.

They really didn't want to turn to Wigginton at 3rd last year. Has that changed? (I really don't know).

It's a possibility. Though, I'm not overly worried about them trading Vitters in a Headley deal. I'm actually a big fan of Vitters, but I think I'd do that deal if I had to. It would obviously depend on Hoyer's belief in Headley and Theo/Hoyer's belief in internal options, but if Hoyer was convinced Headley's numbers would jump moving to Wrigley, I'd be fine with getting him for Vitters. It also depends on what Vitters' value is around the league - I honestly don't know how well other teams value him as a potential trade chip and the answer to that would play a big role in determining how seriously I considered the trade. Here's my reasoning: We know at worst Headley will be a decent, cheap option at third for the next three years. There's a chance his numbers may improve and he becomes a very good third baseman who we consider bringing back after his arbitration years. With Vitters, the upside is far higher than Headley, but so is the risk. There's a very realistic chance Vitters never makes the majors or is cup of coffee and done type player. We'd be trading a major risk for certainty with upside who's cheap. I think there's very little chance that the Padres would go after Vitters. Way too many corner options in the system in the IF. Doesn't seem to be a fit defensively for Petco, to say the least. Since we're just shooting ideas around, I think they would ask for McNutt, and I'd be fine putting him in a deal (they could use an upper level arm, as most of their top tier arm assets are in the lower level). It'd have to be more than McNutt, though.

What makes you so strongly prefer Stewart to Headley? Is it purely slugging and prospect related? I get preferring Stewart to Headley, but not by as much as you seem to. I articulated ît a bit more clearly in my article, but I just don't see SD trading headley for anything but a big package. It's the acquisition cost that makes me prefer Stewart more than predicted performance. We're obviously speaking about hypotheticals here, but I think people are under-estimating what it would take to get Colorado to let Ian Stewart go. It'd probably/should be less than any hypothetical Headley package, but significantly less? I'm not so sure about that. Who are they going to turn to at 3rd? If his cost is significantly less, then yeah, I'd place him ahead of Headley (put it this way, I don't think either guy gets dealt without say, Trey McNutt as of now). Now, I guess one pie in the sky long shot scenario, since we're speaking hypotheticals here, is the Rockies going after Aramis or David Wright, which might make them more willing to move Ian.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it 2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough 3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on 4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return. ah okay. I tend to think the cost of Wright and Stewart will be high relative to what some of the expectations on here are. I don't believe Colorado will move on from Stewart unless they have an upgrade in place, even a veteran upgrade, to bridge the gap to Nolan Arenado. I tend to view 1 as unrealistic, so my, as of now, top 3rd base options look more like 1. Chase Headley (if the costs are reasonable) 2. Ian Stewart (if the costs are reasonable) 3. Some Jeff Baker/platoon ... Down the line ... 4 Kevin Kouzmanoff I think 4 can be done in combination with one of the top 3, as I doubt Kouzmanoff gets a major league deal, but whether or not Kouzmanoff is actually an upgrade to guys like Flaherty/LeMahieu/Marquez Smith at 3rd in Iowa is debatable. Edit: Thinking about it, I guess I could live with Aramis on a 3 year deal, so I think I'd stick him in there ahead of Ian Stewart. But I'm thinking Aramis can get 4 on the open market, probably from an AL team where they could potentially shift him to DH down the line. I'm really not anticipating Aramis back. Edit 2: totally forgot about David Wright. If the costs are reasonable, I'd slide him ahead of Stewart as well, but behind Headley. What makes you think SD would be willing to move Headley? At all? Well, I obviously don't know, but I think they'd ponder it because he's entering Arb 2, and the core of their top young talent is largely below AA or just hitting AA. Reading comments from their top guys about Gyorko makes me think that even though I think he is a bit over-hyped, they think he might be close to ready. It'd take a lot, and what I consider reasonable for Headley, I would consider unreasonable for Wright or Stewart at this stage.

1) Aramis on a 2 year deal, if he'll take it 2) Wright if the cost is reasonable enough 3) Stewart if Colorado is ready to move on 4) Internal platoon options while investing the $ elsewhere to get the 4 WAR I think I'd prefer all those options to what it would likely take us to trade for Headley. Obviously, the top 3 are all contingent upon either dollar or prospect cost. I guess I could put Headley up there, but I just can't foresee why SD would trade him without getting a lot in return. ah okay. I tend to think the cost of Wright and Stewart will be high relative to what some of the expectations on here are. I don't believe Colorado will move on from Stewart unless they have an upgrade in place, even a veteran upgrade, to bridge the gap to Nolan Arenado. I tend to view 1 as unrealistic, so my, as of now, top 3rd base options look more like 1. Chase Headley (if the costs are reasonable) 2. Ian Stewart (if the costs are reasonable) 3. Some Jeff Baker/platoon ... Down the line ... 4 Kevin Kouzmanoff I think 4 can be done in combination with one of the top 3, as I doubt Kouzmanoff gets a major league deal, but whether or not Kouzmanoff is actually an upgrade to guys like Flaherty/LeMahieu/Marquez Smith at 3rd in Iowa is debatable. Edit: Thinking about it, I guess I could live with Aramis on a 3 year deal, so I think I'd stick him in there ahead of Ian Stewart. But I'm thinking Aramis can get 4 on the open market, probably from an AL team where they could potentially shift him to DH down the line. I'm really not anticipating Aramis back. Edit 2: totally forgot about David Wright. If the costs are reasonable, I'd slide him ahead of Stewart as well, but behind Headley.

I'm curious who is at the top of your list for 3rd, then. It's quite possible that we've discussed this in another thread, but I honestly don't keep track of things.