toonsterwu

not sure that's the word I would use. I'd go with the phrase "potentially crippling" What is it that beats him? Fastballs (bat speed issue?) or does he just suck against off speed stuff? Which would be better/worse anyway? Sucks to not be able to hit a good fastball as a very young major leaguer... A big part of Brett's issues is swing consistency. I'm no swing guru, and I'm sure there are far more knowledgeable people on this, but his swing does get ... a bit ... loopy at times. The inconsistency with the swing and the occasional loopiness exposes him to far more strikeouts. That said, he's an ... aggressively disciplined swinger? Not exactly a Colvin hacker of sorts, and not exactly, say, a Vitters issue, but he'll chase some marginal pitches at times. Saw him during a hot streak last year, and while I'm sure the PCL helped a bit, when he's on, Brett Jackson can be lethal. I do wonder if some of the issues right now might have to do with him over-thinking it. There's been so many whispers about Brett trying to adjust his approach to be more in-line with what new management wants that I wonder. Nothing to base it on, just a random speculative comment.

huh?

Hernandez with another hit. 5 out of 6 games with hits. Granted, so far that's 6 hits in this stretch, but it's a step in the right direction. Taiwan Easterling is hot, with 2 more hits today. 4th straight 2 hit game for Easterling.

Pawelek was 05. Wilken's first draft, unless I'm mistaken, was 06, so Pawelek was still Stockstill, or at least, I think. I really liked Kurcz a lot. Thought he had some good late inning potential. The depressing thing, IMO, is that they couldn't take many gambles because of budget limitations (IIRC, over this period, we were in the bottom 6 or 7 in spending). For a big market team, it should be unacceptable to be that low. Most teams will miss, and miss a lot, but we should've been able to take a few more gambles to give us a better shot. I mean, we had a Huseby here, an Acosta there (what happened with Ryan again, I don't recall), a McNutt/Struck/Beeler, but we just didn't have enough gambles until the Ricketts regime began. I'd imagine most of the top 10 round arms, without spending the time to check, were probably slot. The other mild comment I'd throw out there is I wonder how the 2008 draft impacted things. There was noticeable excitement from the 2008 pitching class, and it looked, early on, to fill in some pitching depth up and down the system. Looking at the Wilken era now, that was really the only pitching-intensive draft, so it makes me wonder how much did hope on those guys impact subsequent drafts in their approach. ____ As a total side note, the two guys I got really excited on, for the 2008 draft, besides Jay Jackson, were Justin Bristow and Dan McDaniel. McDaniel was a fascinating power arm that first year. The former had injuries bust him up. IIRC, McDaniel was a case where the stuff he showed just didn't carry well as a starter.

Too many top 10 round picks just haven't panned out on the arm side. Who would've believed, a year or two ago, that Jeff Samardzija would be the top arm from the Wilken era of drafts? I don't think any of us would've legitimately believed that right now. Since I'm waiting for a customer service call, top 10 round arms in the Wilken era: 06 - Samardzija/Muldowney (a try hard college arm, but just never had the stuff)/Renshaw (part of Trachsel trade, but looked like an end of the rotation/pen arm type at the time anyways, before stalling in O's A+) 07 - Lambert (sent to O's, but IIRC, injuries nabbed him. that said, he was really a pen arm type who started a few games) 08 (the pitching draft) - Cashner (injuries have hurt his chances to be a starter ... let's see if San Diego can actually keep to their promised intent of moving him back to the rotation in 2013 ... I doubt it), Shafer (injuries), Carpenter (injuries, control problems ... but hey, he got us Theo ... sorta), Bristow (this might be one of my bigger disappointments, injuries nabbed him, but boy, at the end of 2009, he was a fascinating arm whose fastball just exploded), Leverton (just wasn't as good as hoped for, IIRC, was a 2-way guy in college that we hoped would get better as a starter), Jay Jackson (once upon a time ... ), Alex Wilson (didn't sign) 09 - Kirk (he's performing, but his ceiling is ... debatable, to say the least), Rusin (I remember at the time that Kirk/Rusin back to back wasn't viewed that badly because there was hope in Kirk as a young arm, but looking at it now, boy, we took two back of the rotation lefties back to back ... ), Raley (see ... Rusin ... this really wasn't viewed that poorly, IIRC the opinions on Cubs sites back then, but looking at it now, 3 back of the rotation lefty types in the top 6 rounds), Whitenack (let's hope he works his way back up in the same form he showed last year), Thomas (fireballer who hasn't developed as a pen arm enough to move up yet) 10 - Simpson (injuries), Ackerman (still chugging it away in XST), Ben Wells (looks interesting enough so far), Greathouse (control), Rhoderick (looks nice, but looks middle relief/setup nice), Kurcz (I liked him ... and he did net us Theo ... sorta) 11 - Zych/Scott Granted, top 10 round picks aren't everything, but that's a lot of ... bleh ... for top 10 round pitching. Add in the bust of a Jin-Young Kim signing and Concepcion signing, and that's a lot of assets, picks or money, wasted so far. The 08 draft was really the one that got the talk on the Cubs system turned around a bit, but so many of those guys haven't panned out the way we had once hoped.

They sat Torreyes earlier in the year when he was struggling, and I imagine this is a similar kind of treatment. I'd be surprised if he wasn't in there today or tomorrow. They let Marco Hernandez/Taiwan Easterling get in there consistently, even though both guys stunk up the joint for a long time (and Marco is still SSS, at least Taiwan has a strong 2 weeks). With Rubi Silva ... not as hot as before ... and with Silva able to play OF, I'd be surprised if Torreyes wasn't given a chance to work things out. Although ... now that I look at it ... all the OF's are hitting surprisingly ... decent ... in Daytona (Szczur is hot, Andreoli is doing his James Adduci impersonation, except not playing CF, Perez is smoking hot, and Bonne is at least making contact).

Szczur's fairly hot. If he can sustain good offensive performance for awhile, I'd like to see the bump to AA (not anytime soon, though). I was pleased that they gave Ha a chance to run with it, but if Szczur's ready and performing, send him up. One benefit of a Szczur bump would be that we would get to see Silva likely log some time in CF to see what sort of value he might carry. Alcantara had another hit. Nice little run he's on, which coincides with Torreyes struggling again. Still feel like this is a "hot streak" for Alcantara, and not signs of significant improvement, but worth watching to see if he can maintain things considering his ability and athleticism.

Your misreading my comment. What I said about 2010 Jay Jackson was that, the belief was that his mechanics were improved which contributed partly to his command improvement. No where did I say he was improved overall, and no where did I indicate that I was given that impression. As I noted above, the stuff in 2010 (and 2011/2012) was still basically the same as it was in 2009 (low 90's fastball that's a bit straight, 50/55 on the slider, curveball and change a tick below). Maybe the slider is closer to a 50 now, but I haven't followed Jay as closely since 2010. He could get away with that stuff in 2009 in the lower levels, but in AAA, that stuff just won't fly against better, more polished bats. Now, I am in no means really trying to defend Jay Jackson. I had him in my 40-60 range entering this season, and I've consistently sung the praises of Cabrera over the last year and a half as a possible dominant pen arm, and I don't think Jay Jackson is anywhere near Cabrera's potential out of the pen. I wouldn't put Jay Jackson on Blake Parker's level out of the pen. But ... and I can't believe I'm half-defending him, the fastball velocity is still there (I know there were reports questioning his velo last year, but it was in the low 90's as a starter). You move him to the pen and maybe he can focus more on the slider. Maybe it develops. It's a long shot, but my point in my original post is that I don't know if I would put him in "organizational filler" status just yet, relative to the definition that I gave above for what I view as organizational filler. From a statistical perspective, the one thing I haven't gotten a really good grasp on in the past year and change is why his HR rate has fallen. The groundballs are slightly up, but that's a significant drop. Considering the rate this year is in line with last year's, we're slowly getting to the point where it's hard to argue that it's a statistical anomaly. Btw, I find it hard to buy that Jay Jackson needs to go to a lower level or Indy ball to continue his pro career anytime soon. A year or two from now? Perhaps, but anytime soon? I'd be surprised. There are plenty of pitchers in AAA that can't carry a 6ish K/9 and a BB/9 in the 2.7-2.9 BB/9 range, and if the decrease in the HR/9 rate is a sign of development, then I'd find it hard to believe that a team wouldn't give him a look in AAA after this year. Really, I'm not sure why I'm defending him, as I've been off the bandwagon for awhile, but there's a lot of bad pitchers in the minors, and this is a guy with some passable performance indicators who is in his 4th full season of pro ball and who is in his 4th full season as a full-time pitcher. Sure, he's not the exciting guy we thought back in 2009, and yes, he doesn't feel like a guy with end of the game potential, but ... well, put it this way, I'm not sure why we're almost writing an end to his career already. Let me add one more thing in there - I'm not ready to write him off as an end of the rotation candidate yet. I mean, the "definition" of a 4/5 starter is what, no plus pitch, but average breaking ball, usable repetoire for a 3rd (or 4th) pitch, command, and decent fastball velocity?

I hope they give Cardenas enough AB's to get a gauge on whether or not he can be a starter at 2nd down the line. Barney shouldn't block him from getting a start here or there while he's up (not saying start Cardenas on a regular basis, just a start here or there), and Adrian can also get some time at 3rd, where, IIRC, he might be a better defensive fit, but lacks the pop.

I've always felt that way too. Problem is, all indications are that he isn't all that good at 2nd defensively. I've half-wondered if it was a reps issue, but realistically, they've given him enough reps there over the last year and change to probably get a decent gauge.

It's not like Casey's been bad in the minors. Armando Galarraga nearly had/should've had a perfect game once. Casey's a decent minor league starter, and guys can have good luck once in awhile, whether it is through batted balls, or guys chasing his pitches. It isn't exciting, that's for sure, but there's some areas of ... intrigue. Namely, Marco Hernandez and Taiwan Easterling seem to be turning things around (Taiwan more than Marco). A 2/5 day puts Taiwan's last 10 at .308/.372/.436. Marco's 1/4 day gives him hits in 4/5 games. Strikeouts are still worrisome for him, but one step at a time. Francescon with another solid enough outing, and McDonald making AzPhil look good in his first outing. One step at a time. ___ Long run, I see Brett as more of a 6 hole hitter, so him batting 5th, I like. That said, considering the lack of top of the order options, he might still start as a top of the order bat when he comes up (or at least, they may still hope that). We actually don't know how the new regime feels on Brett's potential placement in a lineup, though. We know the old regime preferred him coming up as a top of the order bat, so this may be a sign of things to come, or it may simply be a feeling out process.

Agreed. There's absolutely zero need to move Lake off short. He still probably ... shouldn't ... stay there, but that said, he's arguably improved from when he first came over, and Castro's future at short is debatable (SSS, but UZR seems to like him in the early-goings of this year). With no real long term shortstop option unless Arismendy develops, or Marco develops, there's no rush (I guess, I should also put in there if Torreyes somehow convinces them to let him stay there).

Tennessee lost, but Lake, leading off, was 2/4 with a double and a triple in his return. That said, he also had a K. Mildly interesting decision to have him lead off. Curious behind the thought process on that one - could be simply to get him back in the groove, but half wonder if it's to try and force him to take some pitches. Lake took 4 pitches in the first AB, 1 in the 2nd AB, put a sac bunt on for the 3rd AB, struck out in 3 pitches on his 4th AB, and hit a triple on the first pitch in the 9th. Daytona won 5-4. Kirk had his usual solid outing (7ip, 6 h (1 solo HR), 3 K's, 2 R's). Alcantara is red hot ... 2/5, 2 3B's, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB (last 10: .371/.389/.543). Feels like just a hot streak, but maybe there's some development. He's still a 20 year old toolsy, intriguing guy that can handle short, but his lack of discipline was always the worrisome issue.

I don't see why Stroman can't start at the next level. His stuff hold very well late in his starts and he has 2 plus pitches. It's actually quite odd for me to argue against Stroman, in some respects, as he's fairly similar to Sonny Gray, and I liked Sonny Gray's chances to be a starter (but then again, there's some signs now that Gray may be better in the pen, so only time will tell). Hell, you could make an argument that Stroman's better than Gray because his change-up might be better at the same point in development. That said, the couple times I caught him this year (UVA game primarily, but seen him a couple times), I kept thinking that guys got a good bead on him. In particular, outside of Jared King in that UVA game, the rest of the Wahoos actually had a decent read on his stuff, relative to a guy who's being talked about as a potential elite starter. Saw him a few other times, and I just tend to wonder if he can fool elite batters like he did the college batters that I saw. I know the reports, good physically, athletic, two plus pitches, good to plus change that flashes. Certainly, I haven't seen enough to make any deep judgment. Just personally, gut-feeling wise, don't love him as a starter next level.

For me, it comes down to how the internal scouting reports really come out on Fried. I know what's out there publicly, but if the Cubs felt that Fried could add a few ticks to his fastball (and some public reports seem to hint that), then I think I might take the power lefty over Almora. Close, though.

Hmm ... his mechanics were falling off a cliff in 2010? I followed him closely in 2010, saw him a few times, talked to a few people about him, and the general opinion was that, mechanically, he was significantly improved. The general belief was that the command improvements he showed in AAA were partly attributed to significant improvements mechanically, where he become more of a pitcher, whereas one person who saw him a lot in 2009 called him a "chucker". Stuff wise, his stuff never "fell". It just never developed. Fastball's the same as it was coming up the system. Slider's the same as well, which is the problem. In 2009, you could say that it was his first full year of pro ball, first full year as a full-time pitcher, and look at his slider and say, it shows some potential, flashes some potential, but in 2010, it never developed, and hence why you got a lot of 50/55 on the slider. Basically, in 2009, folks were more willing to overlook the flaws because he was so raw as a pitcher (again, in 2009, it was his first full year as a pitcher), and hope that the 50/55 they saw could blossom a bit, but it just didn't. All that said, I feel like I'm defending Jay Jackson a lot more than I really intend to (heck, for the past year, people have bagged on Alberto Cabrera, and I kept arguing that Cabrera was more intriguing than Jay Jackson). I just don't know about mechanics falling off. Maybe they fell off in 2011 and/or this year, but I am certain in 2010 there were a lot more people positive about his mechanics than in 2009. Edit: On the degradation issue, I'm aware that some reports said he had a plus slider in college and in 2008/2009. It may be benefit of hindsight, but when I asked around in 2010, there were some folks that said that in 2009, it was never consistently "plus" to get a 60 grade, but that people hoped that the average pitch they flashed plus occasionally could get there. But yes, from the perspective that some reports said it was a plus pitch once, I guess I can see why you might argue there was degradation, but I question if that degradation occurred or it simply never developed.

I haven't really pondered things as much as you guys, but assuming Buxton/Gausman/Zunino are off the board (and I think it would be a shocker if they weren't), I might go 1* - A healthy Giolito. 2. Correa 3. Zimmer 4. Fried 5. Almora 6. Appel 7. Wacha 8. Stroman I simply want ceiling with that first pick. Preferably an arm, but if it's a bat, okay. I'm wary on Appel - never been a big fan, and not sold that Stroman is a starter at the next level. Admittedly, 2-7 is probably fairly close.

Dan Berlind was released, Jon Mota up to AAA, and Junior Lake to AA.

Well, Jay Jackson was still a fascinating prospect at the start of 2010, his 2nd full year of pro ball. He had an interesting 2009 - was capable in AA, but had control problems, then was demoted to A+ and dominated there, before ending with a start at AAA. Actually, if I recall the 2009 time in AA correctly, he got off to a horrendous start, then was on a roll in AA, before a couple bad starts and the demotion occurred. All in all, he was still headed the right direction after 2009, where the reports on his fastball were good, there was belief that his slider showed promise. Of course, there were some concerns - he had a decent GB rate in 2009 (40% at AA, 48% at A+), but he was still flyball prone, the slider wasn't that great, and there were command concerns, which, IIRC, was partly attributed to his mechanical concerns. But for a raw college arm to do this well in his first full season of pro ball was very promising. Then came 2010. He went up to AAA. The reports on his slider just weren't all that good, but he showed significant improvement in his command, and mechanically, IIRC, there were indications that he was smoothing out the concerns that some had. Still HR prone, but well, he's flyball prone ... but there was some hope that if he could find a sharp slider, he could actually be a solid starting prospect. What was mildly interesting to me about his 2010, IIRC, he was able to get guys to pound groundballs at a respectable rate for a couple months, but the other months, he was horrendously flyball heavy. Then came 2011 (and even this year). He's getting more groundballs than he did in 2010, and his HR rate is down from 2010. I know there were reports on his velocity being a concern, but I saw him hit the low 90's last year, which is where he's largely been as a starter (he did ramp up the velo a bit in short spurts in AA, but that was when he was still chucking the ball a bit more). There still isn't a strikeout pitch, though. All this is to say that, even though I don't consider him a top 30 prospect in the Cubs system, I'm not ready to slap organizational on him just yet. May come down to how one defines organizational, though. I tend to think of JR Mathes types, guys who really had zero reason to see the major leagues and are average minor leaguers kept around to provide veteran leadership, or something like that. There's still some life in the fastball. I tend to wonder if a move to the pen is the best move to make for him, with the hope being that maybe he could focus on the slider and tighten it up. That said, it's also not hard to see why they keep him as a starter - this is the start of his fourth full season of pro ball, and he was probably a bit rushed up the ladder. The command has sharpened, the mechanics have improved. If he found an out-pitch, his arsenal could play around that and be ... interesting. He's only 24, and pitching-wise, he's probably a young 24 in that he was a 2-way guy in college. Big IF, though. This seems like a big defense of Jay Jackson, but again, I don't really consider him a top 30 in the Cubs system. Just think it's a bit hasty to say that he's organizational. I think the pen's the best bet, though.

It's a shame Cerda isn't a better defender at 2nd, because that's where his bat profiles best. As of now, it's just hard to buy that the current power can be maintained. A few years back, I was given a Mike Fontenot comparison as a positive case, so I've always held out hope that he had a bit more pop, but this is a significant jump from the past, as of now, so taking more of a wait and see. The Concepcion thing is just bad right now. In most situations like this, I'd say send him to XST again. Maybe he isn't in shape. The 40 man thing, though, likely creates additional pressure to have him in full-season to justify what they were selling when they signed him. The scouting reports weren't that much better on Concepcion, if at all, than they were on Jin Young Kim when we signed him, but at least we got Kim at a significantly lower rate.

As a random aside, it's only 11.2 innings, but Marcus Hatley is looking awfully good right now. Had not realized what a strong season he was having, but considering this is his 2nd full season back, it looks like things are sharper in the early part of the year. Still think I prefer Cabrera to Hatley as a pen arm, but the SSS of Hatley's stats certainly impresses so far.

Well, not having Wells was disappointing, but seeing Kyler being pushed a little as a result is a nice plus. Don't mind that he ran into problems in the 7th. If Concepcion can't get it going, I'm all for Kyler becoming more of a "rotation" guy and having Wells piggyback with Concepcion. That said, I hope Wells feels better for his next start. Nice three game hit streak for Marco. Let's hope he's turned the corner and can get some offense going. That said, those K's are still somewhat troubling. Did not realize that Easterling had hits in 7 of 9 games. Considering he had all of 4 hits before this stretch, that's a nice little run he's on. Curious if there's any report on how Liria looked. Chen had an 0-fer, but I honestly did not realize how hot he had been of late - his last 10, including the 0-fer, sports a .359/.405/.436 line. So, Torreyes and Szczur aren't hitting again (although Torreyes isn't striking out either). At least Silva seems to have bounced back from a bit of a down spell. Cates, though, looks like he had another shaky start. He's probably going to get a lot of rope as a "McLeod" guy, but boy, this is a slow start, to say the least. Granted, fangraphs has his BABIP as insanely high, but he's not striking out people. Looks like the defense didn't help Beeler. Ridling's in a bad funk in Tennessee. Watkins has had a nice series against Montgomery - 7/22. Same with Ha for that matter - 7/19 and 3 2B's. Here's hoping they can keep things going. Nice to see Valbuena make good contact and go 3/4. He had been in a bit of a slump.

Of the more immediate names (that is, guys pitching in the pen, and not guys who could be moved there), I tend to think Cabrera/Hatley, with big time fastball/slider combos, are the only two with solid closing potential. Neither seems likely to be called up anytime soon. Batista/Rhoderick feel more like middle reliever/setup types. Zych could be a thought if he tightens things up. Weismann had closing experience at, um, Clemson?, but his stuff profiles more as a middle reliever, IMO. Parker seems more of a middle relief/setup mode as well.

To mildly defend Lee, who I thought was over-hyped by many last year (especially when Law ranked him as the 7th best prospect on a list, iirc), he has been on a hot streak of late, going .341/.356/.523 in his last 10 (and this includes his 0/10 against the Smokies in the last 2 days).

It's been a fairly disappointing start to the year. Every time a guy looks like he's about to get hot, he slides back down (Torreyes in a 1/25 swing, Szczur going 0/8 the last 2 nights. Granted, Torreyes hasn't struck out in this stretch, but 1/25 is 1/25 - not many ways to make it sound THAT good). There really haven't been many breakout candidates (Rubi Silva's about the only bat that can be classified as a breakout right now), and there really isn't an old-for-level slugger really dominating. - As a side note, Arismendy Alcantara is in a nice 10/28 stretch. Probably just a random in-season hot streak, but it's something positive to talk about. ____ The mildly positive spin, I guess, is that, relative to AA/A+, there really wasn't much positional talent entering the year, and A+'s pitching, IMO, was shaky to begin with. The AA staff, has for the most part, been steady, and Szczur/Torreyes have both shown some signs of life (and with Torreyes, BABIP can give a bit more hope). There hasn't been anything real shocking in AAA - positive or negative, to be honest, and in Peoria, the pitching staff has enough positives, and let's face it, it's not like we expected everyone to succeed (in terms of Peoria pitching positives, I'd say Jensen/Francescon/Burke/Wells all have performed well enough in the early going as starter/piggyback guys, and Liria/Wang/Reed have been okay-solid in their limited innings. Golden was hurt too early to get a good gauge on anything, so there's really been only two major disappointments for me, guys that haven't really shown any flashes so far to get excited about, in Marco Hernandez and Taiwan Easterling. The former is still only 19 in Low A, and the latter was a raw, toolsy guy, but their K rates have been quite disappointing. (I'm not willing to lump Concepcion into a major disappointment yet because it's so few innings, and the same goes for Zach Cates.) That said, that's more dressing up a pig, or whatever the saying is that I'm trying to think of right now. It hasn't been pretty.