toonsterwu

Wait, really? There's major difference between a 6'6" former WR turned pitcher who throws 95 consistently and a 6'3" LH former OF? When you take the comparison that literally, sure. Generally speaking, I'm talking two of the best athletes in the system who came in with fresh arms and minimal backgrounds as pitchers compared to other college trained pitchers. Raley, amongst LH 5th stater types, stands out for being a significantly better athlete than most, even if he doesn't bring the heat. Man you've really got to vacuum seal your arguments to make a point sometimes...damn. I understand your point. Two above average athletes for the position (I'd argue that Samardzija is a far superior athlete than Raley, and that a better comp for Raley would be Jay Jackson, but your point is noted. But, this is what I think CR (and I) were touching on in the other thread. Athleticism is great. It is, and you'd rather have a good athlete than not. But at a certain point, stuff matters, particularly as it relates to pitchers, and all indications are, as of now, that Raley's ceiling is what it is - an end of the rotation arm. You are basically hoping that he maxes out. I hope you are right, and I hope he becomes a successful 5th starter, but he basically has to max out on his abilities, or find some late developmental spurt. Again ... what's the difference, in stuff, from JR Mathes, when he was in AA, to Brooks Raley now? Doesn't mean that type of guy can't reach the bigs, but I think it's hoping for the best possible situation in regards to development.

I would also add that few guys reach their ceilings. For all the talk I occasionally make about having a couple mid-rotation ceiling guys in AA/AAA, if one of them makes it to the bigs as a solid 4/5 starter, I'll be okay with it. I hope for better, but I don't think you should go in expecting guys to reach their ceilings. If a guy's ceiling is a mid-rotation arm, then I hope he gets there, but I tend to sway towards the realistic side (even if I don't say it at times and even if I get bullish on Cubs guys) and understand that a 4/5 starter from a mid-rotation arm would be fine. A guy with an end of the rotation ceiling? You're basically asking him to max out. Some guys do. As a side note, this might be the longest minor league game day thread (that I can recall right now) that only has a few posts on the on-going games.

I don't see where or how I'm not appreciating how hard it is to learn CF. If anything this plays against your argument that Ha has everything to be the best defensive CF in the system because he's the least experienced and most raw at making reads and taking solid routes. It's a position that more often than not requires being a natural at...which is why your best CFers are lifers at the position. We did go in circles on that btw, so too late on that. You needed 1,000 words to get to fringe starter/backup OF, which is in the original post you replied to. Sorry, I was doing something else and forgot about this. Maybe it didn't come across clear, which is my fault. You noted What I was saying is that I would argue that Ha learning CF on the fly is far tougher than Raley going from part-time pitcher to full-time pitcher, which seems to be the opposite of what you are arguing. If I'm misreading that statement, then sorry. I don't think anything I've said runs counter to anything else I've said on Ha - while I'm not a big believer in Ha, because of the difficulties in learning the nuances of the position (what I argued in the last post), and my belief that his range is similar enough to Szczur's, that he at least deserves some more time before making a judgment on his CF ability (what I said in earlier posts). But because Szczur is closer to helping (which seems odd to say, considering he's at a lower level), and is more consistent in CF, and considering his age, if Szczur is ready for AA, then you move Ha aside because Szczur takes priority to Ha. And yes, I've defended two guys I'm not huge on in these two threads (Rosario/Ha - while I had Ha ranked higher in the off-season, I'm far more intrigued with Rosario).

Actually, and I think we'd likely go in circles on this, but I'd argue the opposite: that learning CF and being good at it is quite difficult if you've never played it at a professionally organized level. Every time I ask folks about it, they tell me that learning CF defense is often under-appreciated and the idea that a guy with range playing RF can slide over to CF and be solid is over-rated (exact words someone said to me once). Whereas with Raley, he had been pitching most of his life, just never full-time, Ha, to the best of my knowledge, did not start playing CF until dabbling with it in Peoria, and then taking to it full-time in Daytona last year. He's learning the position on the fly. Granted, part of this was the Cubs decision to first try him at catcher (one wonders if they had started him in the OF, if perhaps he would've started working in CF earlier). Anyhow, I feel like we would end up going in circles on this, so I'll leave this one alone. But ... in general, I've been repeatedly told that learning CF defense is something that people completely under-appreciate, often times believing range is enough. ____ Looks like Loosen wants to stay in the rotation. Nice start so far.

I've seen Ha a couple times and I have to disagree. Routes and reads are part of CF defensive tools, and he's not that good there with that stuff. He's also not as fast as most of those guys. He does probably have the best OF arm in the system, hence my RF projection. Szczur would get CF over Ha because he's better in CF than Ha is. My personal take, leaving aside what scouts and others have said, having seen him in both Daytona and Tennessee last year, is that he can play CF. I think he has similar, if not better, range than Szczur (Szczur's pure speed was always something, IMO, that was over-hyped ... he had baseball speed, which is as much a combination of speed and quickness, along with instincts, but overall, athletically, I've always felt what Szczur offered was a combination of speed and quickness/agility), but the fact that he isn't great reading balls or taking routes yet hampers the effectiveness of his range. I think both guys have borderline plus range in CF. This is off watching them ... not with a stopwatch ... so maybe stopwatch times say something different. In terms of range, what I think Szczur has on Ha is better instincts and recognition ... but he's also played CF far longer than Ha (unless I'm mistaken, he played CF in college as well). As a side note, I'll be honest, I find it mildly intriguing that you defended Raley on account of the fact that he was a former two-way guy learning to be a full-time pitching (even though this is his 3rd full season in pro ball and 4th season as a pro), and yet, you seem to have made a definite judgment on Ha even though this is basically his 2nd year in CF (off the top, he played a tiny bit of CF in Peoria, but not a lot). Btw, gut feeling is that Ha's offense will never be good enough for him to be a factor as a starter on a top tier squad. I think, and this is awfully early considering his age, that he's probably a AAA guy who sees time as a backup OF from time to time, maybe at best a starter on a non-playoff squad occasionally. But awfully early for him.

Zapata's awful young. I would like to see him in CF a bit more, as he has the speed, and I think he has the better arm, although I don't recall for certain right now. (that said, I'd like to see Taiwan Easterling in CF a bit more as well). LIke the fact that Jensen went 7:4 GO/FO today. He's going through the learning phase, where teams are adjusting to him as they get a better book on him. I don't expect him to be a high strikeout guy if he sticks as a starter, but , but if he can get some groundballs mixed in with some strikeouts, that'd be nice. Still curious what is going on with Liria. I know there were definite reports of him topping out in the mid-90's last year. Wonder what he's at this year.

If the decision is only b/w those two guys, then I'd lean Cruz if they simply wanted an arm there, either in piggybacking or in the pen. I'd consider Pugliese if they wanted a starter, but he's awful young (19) and playing it safe is fine.

I mean ... if things really pan out for Ha, he's a potential stud CF, a top defensive guy who shows power, hits for average, and doesn't strike out a ton. That's his "ceiling". What's with the quotes around ceiling? And that's reeeeeeeally panning out, because I don't think that's what his toolset entails. Mostly I don't think he's any great shakes in CF, though he can handle it, and I think he profiles more as a RF. The rest is true enough, though hes' been purely a doubles guy as far as power is concerned so far (though I do like doubles, part of why I like Ha). Sick performance by Baez. Put the quotes in because I wasn't sure what you meant by ultimate ceiling his this case, and ceiling is subjective to what one sees. I think you could make a case that, tools wise, Ha has the best defensive tools of the CF's in our full-season affiliates (anyone ... but mainly Jackson/Szczur/Chen, but Silva could be thrown in there, along with Easterling). He has the speed/athleticism to track down balls, and the arm strength that Jackson/Szczur lacks. The issue is consistency with routes/reads/etceteras ... BUT he hasn't had that much work in CF and didn't start off in CF for us. Can he learn it? Don't know ... but the tools are there. I noted this above ... but there were folks that felt he was an elite defensive CF last year. Do I think he'll be an elite CF? I don't know, but like I said elsewhere, if Szczur is ready, even if Ha is better defensively, you give Szczur the run with it in CF because he looks capable of filling a role in the majors quicker than Ha.

I like it. Cruz had his shot. Peralta's an intriguing power arm, and I'd rather see him get a go in Peoria than stay in XST and wait for Boise. Wonder how the rotations are going to get juggled. Guessing Peralta slides into the piggyback role with Concepcion, and Wells goes to "rotation", with maybe someone primed for a 2-3 inning role on nights Wells is going.

South Korea doesn't have much organized baseball for teenagers? They do - they have HS baseball but don't have travel leagues like we do in the U.S. and Canada. I don't know the exact situation in S. Korea, but I know in Asia (primarily Japan and Taiwan), there is a really high amount of organized youth baseball in other fashion. It might not be as ... challenging as the travel leagues, but the top kids do get in a fair amount of organized baseball. What America offers youth, in terms of organized baseball, is the opportunity for everyone to be involved. I think, often times, in Japan and Taiwan, the top kids get some more opportunities than the rest.

I'm not expecting either guy to be promoted anytime soon, not with Jensen's recent slump and Burke still adjusting to "full-load" work. Just meant that I think they are the next two starters that could get called up. I'd be fine with Jensen staying in Peoria all year - it's only his age 21 season. Jensen's last start was hurt by errors. Off the top, I want to say Darvill, but IIRC, all the runs were unearned. He had a bad 2 game stretch that acounted for ... uh 8 or 9 runs? I'm concerned about two things - his declining K rate and the significant decline of his GB rate. What made his April fascinating was the fact that he was getting a solid amount of strikeouts and pounding out GB's. On the plus side, he's still not giving up many HR's, and the command is solid. (Edit: That was supposed to be decline in GB rate, not BB rate).

Good. I assume Ben Wells takes the vacant spot in Peoria's rotation. About time ... I imagine Burke or Jensen have next man up rights ... Wonder who is next guy up from XST - Peralta or Cruz would be the guess if they wanted a possible starter. I'd rather see Peralta up. I have no problem with Jensen spending half the season at Peoria since it's his first pro season. I'd like to see Burke bumped up very soon. Edited my above post to add this thought, but might as well reply it as well - wonder who gets bumped from Daytona's rotation? Jokisch/Del Valle/Kirk haven't done anything to get bumped. Loosen's been solid since coming back and seemingly getting better. That leaves Cates ... who has a bit more upside than the other guys (well ... debatable in comparison vs. Loosen I guess) and is a McLeod draft pick.

Good. I assume Ben Wells takes the vacant spot in Peoria's rotation. About time ... I imagine Burke or Jensen have next man up rights ... Wonder who is next guy up from XST - Peralta or Cruz would be the guess if they wanted a possible starter. As a side note, wonder who gets bumped from Daytona? Francescon has to be going there to be starting .... I assume. Jokisch/Kirk/Del Valle/Loosen haven't really done anything to get bumped, but Cates is the higher upside arm there who was the top pick of McLeod's.

For me, the issue is what type of contact/swings Torreyes is making. Someone posted the other day that Goldstein, or someone else?, said that he was making weak contact. Not sure how to phrase it, but is he getting over-matched at the plate because of ability, or because of something else (say, not reading breaking balls. .158/.224/.217 doesn't usually have any positive spins to it ... there's enough (lack of K's, BABIP) for some positive spin here.

I mean ... if things really pan out for Ha, he's a potential stud CF, a top defensive guy who shows power, hits for average, and doesn't strike out a ton. That's his "ceiling".

Fringe interest, but still of interest. He's an OF without current power or much power potential. He's significantly boosted his discipline at the expense of additional K's this year. If he could get his iso around .150 while playing excellent CF, he'd have definite value. He did hit 11 HRs last year and 34 doubles. He's near the top of his league in doubles again this year. ISOP was .134 last year. That's obviously not anything special, but he's already shown the ability to split the gaps. I hate to make the Asian-to-Asian comparison, but if his walk rate stays the same (even if the Ks stay), he appears to have some Fukudome potential if he can play D (not really sure if he's a good fielder or not). Ha's fielding is one of those ... odd ... things to gather. There were some people last year (including Brian Harper, IIRC) who thought he was a premier defensive CF, and then there were some folks that said, he has the tools, but the consistency/reads/jumps weren't there and that he was a RF. I'm not sure he's definitely a lock to move to RF ... but the little I've heard this season makes me think some of the premier elite defensive CF talk was a bit overboard. Now, defensively in a corner role? He has the arm, athletic ability to excel. Of course, the question then would be what sort of power would he supply. He still has a lot of time to develop that power, though. _____ In terms of comparisons, if you buy his development, discipline-wise, as real, he could prove to be very similar to Brandon Guyer, with perhaps a bit fewer K's and not as much power (I just don't see Ha reaching the power that Guyer eventually showed, he could be close, I guess, and admittedly, a long way to go).

I'm still ... intrigued (but as noted ... intrigue comes in all shapes and sizes). I'm glad the Cubs gave him the ball to run with in AA (particularly since it gave Szczur more time), and Ha still has age (easy to forget sometimes that he's only in his age 21 season ... 2013 would be his age 22 season) and tools on his side. I get the feeling, from the little I've heard, that some of the praise for his CF defense last year was a bit ... over-blown. He's good, and maybe he has more potential than Szczur and Jackson, but the consistency isn't there (which is also understandable because of the moves he's made, and the fact that he didn't play much CF until last year). He's sharply improved his discipline in May, with a huge decline in K rate and a rise in his BB rate, but like with so many other Cubs farmhands this year, it'll be questioned until he shows he can maintain it (granted, IIRC, his BB rate in April was better than his past years). Thing is, he needs time. Like Vitters, he'll have ARL as an argument, along with his tools, for a bit. The Cubs haven't really rushed him that badly - he deserved the jump to Daytona last year, and there was enough stretches last year to say he deserved the look in AA. At this stage, if Szczur shows he can maintain his current stretch, Ha should be moved to a corner for Szczur because of Szczur's age and development relative to his skillset.

Honestly, I'm not sure how these get included as intriguing. A guy who could fill AA/AAA utility roles? Eh, I guess I find things intriguing on different levels. I tend to think that solid versatile upper level guys hold some value because their ability to be moved around allows you better flexibility in sprinkling in youngsters at the upper levels (assuming they are deserving). Certainly, it'd be nice if a guy can take the ball and run with it at a higher level, but I've seen too many kids struggle and get over-exposed, when a few more days off here and there might allow them to settle a bit. Just my opinion (btw, I was sort of ... dismissing Perez ... considering I noted that time might be running out on his move to pitching). I didn't say Rohan was a top level talent, or anything of the such. Just that he was intriguing to me, but as noted above, he's clearly a notch below the main four guys there for me.

Tim, I'm referring to the monthly splits. In May, he is up to 5.5% BB rate, with the significant decline in K rate. Leaving aside his BABIP helping out his overall May line, I think there's some positives there. 1 alone wouldn't be that intriguing, but the combination of an increased BB rate and a significantly decreased K rate does catch my eye. That said, only 1 month now (I'd have to check game logs, which I can't right now, but pretty sure his hot streak started late April).

Thanks iowa. Any feel on Wells breaking ball (also, did he try to power through some sinkers, as he was apt to do last year at times?) Sounds like BA, and others, reports on Concepcion were fairly accurate. IIRC, BA even suggested that his mechanics may hamper his breaking ball consistency. Didn't the Cubs say they had him in the low-mid 90's? Sure seems like the Cubs either saw him on a good day, or just wanted to hard sell him in the final days of free spending.

Hey, I did say intriguing, not talented. That said, I think Alcantara is getting close to being number 2 for me in terms of prospects in Daytona I'm intrigued with. His walk rate is up and his K rate is down significantly (17.4% in April to 11% in May). Yes, I expect his line to come crashing down hard ... but if the development in discipline can be maintained, then I think that's a very big positive. Will he go the way of Silva (who has collapsed with his discipline), or will he maintain thing? I'd probably order it, in terms of intrigue for me, 1. Szczur a decent gap 2a. Torreyes 2b. Alcantara - if Alcantara's discipline development is legitimate, he would become an easy 2 for me on this list. 3. Silva ________ I still hold some mild intrigue with Rohan because I think we sometimes under-estimate the value of having solid, versatile positional assets in the upper minors that protects our youngsters, not because I expect Rohan to make it to the bigs.

Once upon a time, I cared that Jay Jackson was being jerked around, from rotation to pen to rotation (although it made much more sense for Jackson to be moved around than Cashner). Now ... not so much. _____ As a total aside, sitting here and hammering out some things (including that long post in the other thread), I keep thinking this - a lot of were ... disappointed ... to say the least ... with the Daytona squad this year, but positionally, that might be the most intriguing group so far this year (not saying most talented, just intriguing). We've got the top prospect showing development (Szczur), the toolsy Cuban import who got off to a hot start (Silva), the raw and talented young shortstop who went on a huge tear (Alcantara), the older corner guy who looks like he could fill AA/AAA roles as a utility corner option (Rohan), another older but time is running out guy in Nelson Perez (and I wonder if time is running out on the chance of him moving to pitching) mashing, the "polished" collegiate catcher who would be intriguing if he had mildly decent offense (in Gibbs), the hotshot trade youngster who isn't doing squat but isn't striking out a lot (Torreyes), and uh ... others, like John "Jim Adduci" Andreoli. Silva's slumping badly (looks like BABIP is down ... granted, it was ridiculously high in April when he was pounding GB's at a high rate ... walk rate is significantly down and K rate is up) ... which had to be expected at some point, so let's see if he can bounce back. Did like the fact that he got a start in CF. Alcantara should be expected to crash at some point, but I'm more interested to see if he can sustain the improvement he's made with his approach/discipline. Not the most talented group, but an intriguing group, oddly fun group to follow.

Avoiding the quote block and going through your post, roughly in order 1. What I said was "potentially ... hard throwing righties with potential plus breaking pitches". Perhaps the quoted part made it a bit confusing, but by "close to being that right now", I meant in terms of development (and even then, I'm giving a lot of leeway on Dolis and Zych's breaking balls), not a sign on consistency (for example, Jose Arias has mid-90's velocity and potentially, down the line, a plus breaking pitch, but the development is behind for now. Same goes for Amaury Paulino and Starling Peralta). Jose Rosario has always had "potential plus breaking" stuff. I'm not sure what the issue is here. 2. Wang, Peralta, Cates, Liria. Rhoderick, Francescon. Reed, Suarez (late addition, added him for the hell of it, originally was at 11 + Rosario). I'm not sure what reports you are getting, but Rosario was throwing mid-90's as a starter. I had high hopes for Liria, I'll admit to that, but the reports on his fastball this year are largely low 90's. Same with Cates - low 90's as a starter. Same with Wang. That puts Rosario on a far different plane than those guys. Peralta is one guy who can hit mid-90's ... but I've noted the development is behind. Rhoderick is a low 90's fastball with decent movement and a plus slider ... in the pen. Francescon, who I've championed a tiny bit, is a low 90's fastball as a starter. Suarez had mid-90's heat, but has been inconsistent with it, and I don't recall his velo readings as a starter as of now. I haven't heard of Reed as a guy hitting mid-90's out of the pen. Again, I think the keypoint CR tried to start of with is this - Rosario was hitting mid-90's as a starter. There aren't many arms in the system doing that. I haven't argued that Rosario is going to stay a starter - I've said there were bright spots to give hope, but in terms of baseball talent, yes, I think his mid-90's velo as a starter is intriguing. 3. No, I get the point about athletic ability. If you scan my old posts here, I was a big fan of Wilken drafting athletic arms. CR might remember this, but I was a huge fan of Justin Bristow because of his athletic ability (former shortstop) and heat (mid-90's as a piggyback, IIRC). But ... at the end of the day, Raley's ability to make it as a starter will depend on his stuff. If his stuff doesn't improve, then what? Again, I think it's easy to forget that stuff wise, Raley (and I'm sure the search function can show that I was superbly high on him 2 years ago) right now isn't significantly better than JR Mathes, a guy who became synonymous with the term "system arm". For all the things athletic ability offers, unless his stuff improves, and particularly his velocity, then he's a guy peaking mostly in the high 80's with average secondary stuff. How many guys make it as starters with that? Chris Rusin has far better command, solid mechanics, and better breaking pitches ... and we still largely talk about him as a borderline starting candidate. 4. At a certain point, I question how much hope we can place on "he was a former two way guy who is learning to be a full-time pitcher". This is his 3rd full year as a full-time starter, 4th pro season. He's nearing the age where physical maturation stops growing in leaps and bounds (and thus, nearing the "prime years"). His K, BB, GB rates are all similar to past years (well ... BB rate overall is improved, but it spiked in May), with the big improvement, at a quick glance, being in limiting HR's. Still, it looks and feels like what we see with Raley right now is what is there. I hope you are right and that something else is in the bag. 5. Raley is fighting with Rusin, who he's probably more physically talented than anyway. I don't disagree on physical talent. If they were in a ... running contest, I imagine Raley would win. But baseball wise, Rusin's mechanics aren't an issue, and his secondary stuff is better. Physical talent only takes you so far. ___ I don't know what to respond to this: I have no idea if he uses pot, nor is it a concern of mine, as a Cubs fan, unless it impacts his baseball ability. I don't know what development purgatory you are referring to either, but you've mentioned a few times that he has been in the system 4 years. He hasn't stalled at any level, moving up consistently, from 2009 (DSL/AZL) to 2010 (XST/AZL) to 2011 (XST/Boise) to 2012 (Peoria). For a raw guy who started at 18 ... I don't see anything wrong with his progression. He's steadily moving up, he's performing in Low A at an age appropriate level, and he has upside. ___ I'll end on this - I hope to heck that Raley meets your expectations and not mine (pen arm/AAA guy). That means a good, useful player for the Cubs, which is the only thing that matters. I'm also not the biggest Rosario fan. I had him on the back end of my top 30 this winter. He's not a guy I'm going to champion, in the way that Tim talks about his support for Junior Lake/Josh Vitters, and in the way I would champion Ben Wells. I still think you are somewhat under-selling Rosario a bit. I still think placing his "stuff" into the "dime-a-dozen" category is ... odd. We're talking about a guy who, as a starter, is hitting mid-90's on a fairly regular basis. There really aren't that many arms in the Cubs system, starting wise, that is doing that. There's McNutt, who has a ton of issues. There's maybe Michael Jensen, but he's in the low 90's a lot more than mid-90's as a starter. Alberto Cabrera could hit mid-90's as a starter (and perhaps, stuff wise, that's a good comp). There's maybe Kyler Burke, but I don't like the reports that he's pitching solely out of the stretch, and wasn't it a few starts ago that he was more low 90's. I'm really running out of names of guys that were tossing mid-90's as a starter. Whitenack hit mid-90's some last year, but that's stretching it, IMO, as his sinker is better, IMO, in the low 90's and touching mid-90's than having him trying to consistently force a power sinker. There's Ben Wells. We're also talking about a guy with some potential on the breaking stuff, a guy age appropriate for his level and performing well so far. (8.37 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 are solid enough stats as of now, and he's not giving up the long ball). As of now, if I did a Cubs prospect list, off the top, I imagine I'd slider him up, maybe to the mid-teens (on merit). That doesn't mean I think he'll make it as a starter, though. Just a reflection on his talent and potential, which certainly comes with bust potential, but seems much more unique than an arm like Raley's.

How many guys do the Cubs have that, potentially, are hard throwing righties with potential plus breaking balls (and are close to being that right now)? Honestly, I count four others - Rafael Dolis (and don't get me started on the consistency of the slider, which I believe has been over-hyped), Alberto Cabrera, Tony Zych (don't get me started on the quality of his breaking stuff as of now, but I'll bend on that for now), and Marcus Hatley. Certain guys could be there - Starling Peralta comes to mind. That said, Zych didn't have a chance as a starter, Peralta is far behind Rosario in development, and Cabrera never consistently hit mid-90's as a starter. How many soft-tossing lefties (with solid to good control) do we have? Sure, Raley is more athletic than most, but ... it's hard to believe that he's going to add velocity at this stage. Not impossible, and that was why a lot of us liked Raley a few years ago (the potential to add velocity), but as you note ... 3 years in the system. As an aside, Rosario's also 21 to Raley's 23, almost 24 (Rosario turns 22 in late August), so while he's had another year in the system, I'm not sure how far you get with arguing years in the system as a key advantage for Raley. Both have been around long enough. Furthermore, if videographer's comments on Rosario's change-up was a sign that Rosario's change-up has developed, then let's not rule him out as a starter just yet. He's strung together four mildly interesting starts in MY. Rosario's command isn't great, but is fine, haven't heard any significant issues with his mechanics (but haven't really thought about it that much ... _, and there seem to be positive reports on the breaking ball (btw, I had been under the impression that it was a curveball. maybe it's more slurvy.) and the change-up. That's a lot of positives. Sure, if you asked me to make a call right now, I think he'll end up in the pen. But then again ... outside of arms that I personally like a lot ... like Ben Wells, I'd probably guess pen for 90% of the arms in the Low A. Just playing the odds. That said, Raley's probably fighting with Rusin for an outside shot at being an end of the rotation lefty. He's likely ticketed in 2013, for his age 24/25 season, as a AAA arm, and that seems to increase the chances that when's up, he'll be a pen arm. I get the point you are saying. Raley's an intriguing athletic specimen, but I'm not sure I buy Raley adding velocity anymore, and if he doesn't, then his athleticism doesn't go that far anymore in comparing him to polished guys like Rusin (with borderline plus secondary stuff), or maybe even a Kirk (younger). If you think he could add velocity, then yes, that changes the equation, and I would hope that you are right. Raley's a guy with end of the rotation potential, a possible 5 starter, but the chances are high that, if he makes it up (and realistically ... stuff/command wise, he's not significantly better than JR Mathes was in AA, so there's always a chance he stalls out as a system arm in AAA) that it would be in the pen. Rosario's certainly got significantly higher "bust potential", but there aren't many guys in the system with easy mid-90's heat as a starter, and there are positive signs this year. That said, his potential in the pen is higher than Raley's (I'd be mildly surprised if Rosario, if healthy, couldn't be a mid-upper 90's pen guy consistently) because of his velocity. This is a system that, in full season, is fairly devoid of power arms on the starting side ... and let's face it ... on the pen side as well. Rosario's a guy who stands out. He might not have the athletic ability that Raley does, but his baseball potential is a lot more "freakish" than Raley, IMO.

If you don't consider 2012 draftees and assume Whitenack rehabs at a higher level (I would like to see Peralta at a higher level too but it's starting to get late for that), I think you see this rotation at Boise: Peralta, Pugliese, Scott, Arias, Dickson and/or Kim. Unless he's injured, don't forget about Willengton Cruz, who got demoted. He could be a factor there. That said, if a call-up to Daytona happens at some point, I could see Cruz get sent back to Peoria. I did forget about him, good call. I'd rather see Peralta go to Peoria at this point over Cruz. Hey, you recall what the status with Paulino is? I seem to want to say some sort of injury, but I can't recall right now.