I disagree with your guess at the odds. That's just my opinion vs yours though. I'm sure there's a lot of people that would agree with you. Maybe your right but I think it would be something we'd live to regret. Players break down toward the end of their careers and can become pretty much a faint shadow of the player they were when they signed, I've watched it happen to many times. People are always excited when they signed then 3 years later are asking why did we do that? But how many HOF players at Pujols' level have you seen fall off of a cliff? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it feels more like you're talking about someone like Soriano. That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, because the players that had HOF careers did so expressly because they were able to avoid falling off a cliff. It's also self-fulfilling because very few have played at Pujols' level, so you leave yourself an easy out there, too. And in case that isn't enough, you gave yourself room to debate the definition of "falling off a cliff". Ask the question, "how many players were on a HOF track before falling off a cliff", and you get a heckuva list. With just a 30 second brainstorm of the last, oh, 20 years, I came up with: McGwire Rolen Manny Belle Canseco Sosa Gonzalez Griffey These were all superstars in their 20s, but virtually useless after 35. I'd argue that Pujols is either clearly significantly better than nearly everyone on the list (really, I'm stunned you're listing some of those players with a straight face), a number of those guys didn't suffer a significant decline or "fell off of a cliff" until their late 30's or were wracked by injuries that Pujols has been fortunate to mostly avoid (or they came crashing down off of PED regimens) that either caused them to decline or to retire abruptly. I mean, really, that's a hugely arbitrary list because you're using the umbrella term "superstar" instead of actually focusing on players with anything resembling Pujols' level of production. You call it an easy out; I simply say it's reality. No Pujols, isn't a lock to have to have a long productive career when he's pushing 40...but there's a decent chance he will be. But ultimately that's all it is; a chance. A gamble. I'm not arguing that it's otherwise. Personally, I'd like them to take the gamble (if they don't get Fielder).