rsmoler

I forgot, Reyes with the GWRBI

Youth was certainly served in this game. Cedeno, Murton, Dope, Wuertz, Novoa, Ohman, Greenberg, Pagan, and Pie all with good games. Even McGhee, with a great job moving the runner over in the 9th, and Soto throwing a guy out at second, got the job done.

According to cubs.com, Ohman and Pierre have signed 1 year deals. Zambrano is next. Terms were not disclosed yet. Stay tuned.

I ordered the book from BA's web-site. By the way, 11 of the top 30 players were drafted in the last two years. If these guys do well in 2006, we may be a lot more excited about our system next year.

The BA Prospect Handbook landed yesterday. BA's comments were not very flattering. If it weren't for Felix Pie, there wouldn't be too much to get excited about. They do like a lot of the young pitchers and believe it or not, Luis Montanez made the list at number 30. I'm not at home right now. If there is not another posting when I get back from work, I'll post more details.

Other questions: 1. What was the rush to sign Eyre and Howry, setting a very high market for relievers, when we already had Dempster, Williamson, Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa. You'd think this money could have been used to go after Furcal and Giles. 2. If Furcal was the number one target, why didn't we give him the $50-$55 mil. over 5 years it would have taken to sign him. 3. Why pick up Walkers option if you just wanted to get rid of him. Did we over-estimate what Walker might bring in a trade. 4. Why tender Patterson a contract when we could be stuck with his salary or just receive a PTBNL in return. 5. When we could have had Burnitz at 1 year and $6 mil or Wilson at 1 year and $4.5 mil. why in the world would we sign Jacques Jones for 3 years and $16 mil.

The idea that Hendry is in a contract year and thus is willing to sacrifice the long term to win this year doesn't make sense. If that were the case, he had a perfect opportunity to put exactly the kind of club he wanted to on the field. All he had to do is offer Furcal $55 mil. or whatever it took over 5 years and then blow Giles away with a deal he couldn't refuse. If the base salaries were lower in the first year and escalated in subsequent years, Hendry could have certainly handled the salaries this year, especially after dumping Patterson and Walker. With Wood and Maddux off the books next year, replaced by young pitchers, overpaying this year would have made even more sense. But Hendry didn't do that. He didn't even bid for Giles and turned down the opportunity to sign Furcal when he was there for the taking. Why in the world Hendry thought he could get a right fielder and a middle infielder through trades when he wasn't willing to part with Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, Prior, Pie or Hill, I have no idea. Personally, I think Hendry seriously misread the market this year and as a result turned the opportunity of a lifetime into a mess of an offseason. The real mistake here will be if Hendry tries to make up for bad decisions made earlier in the offseason by doing something silly now. Trading Prior for Tejada seems like one of those silly moves. If the Cubs are going to win this year, it's going to be Prior, Zambrano and a comback by Wood, plus the bullpen that's going to get them there. Pitching wins games anyway you look at it. If you've got to take a risk this season, I would think it's a lot safer bet that Prior will finally reach his potential and win 20+ games. I just don't see Bedard and Tejada providing the same kind of upside as Prior does.

Royals, they have a history of signing over the hill former superstars. I hope Sammy doesn't mind taking a huge pay cut. I'm thinking he makes less than $2 million next year. If he stays healthy for 120 games next year that will be amazing. Those steroids have a way of catching up to you.

One significant point here that was mentioned but not emphasized is that Jon Stockstill is the Orioles new assistant GM. Not only does he know the Cubs players real well, but obviously has a terrific relationship with Hendry and the Cubs. This should make it a lot easier for the two teams to make a trade.

I heard recently that Nic Jackson will be in camp this spring trying to get his career back on track. He's still in the Cubs organization.

Speaking of youth at the leadoff spot, if I'm not mistaken, we got to the playoffs in 1989 with Jerome Walton leading off and Dwight Smith batting second. Both players finished 1-2 in the rookie of the year balloting. If I recall, neither one of these players was a speed demon either, although they both had nice speed. Walton stole 24 bases and Smith stole 9. It just goes to show, with the right players, having youth at the top of the line-up can work.

I saw where Furcal and Andruw Jones, good buddies that they are, went to an Atlanta Hawks game together the other day. Here's the conversation I would have like to have heard. Jones: "Come on Raffy. You've got to come back next year so we can make another run in the playoffs." Furcal: "So Andruw, when I re-up with the Braves, giving up 5 years and $50 mil. to come back for 4 years and $32 mil. are you going to do the same next year when the Yankees offer you 6 years at $100 mil. and the Braves offer 4 years at $60 mil? Jones: "I didn't mean that I was going to take a hometown discount. I only want you to do it?" Furcal: "That's what I thought."

I guess not.

As we found out this year, this whole concept of who starts at a position doesn't really matter. Injuries, performance slumps/hot streaks, and match ups determine playing time as much as anything. Everybody had Nomar as our shortstop at the beginning of the 2005 season, but Neifi ended up our shortstop. Patterson was supposed to be our centerfielder, but Hairston played there a lot of the time. Hawkins was slated to be our closer, but Dempster closed over 30 games. The key is to amass the most talent you can so there are lots of options. The second guy on the depth chart with this team is very strong at almost every position. I agree that Burnitz at $7 mil is a stretch. He's a good right fielder and not a bad guy for the 6th hole in the line-up. If we can get Giles, that would be great, but I'm doubtful he'd come to the Cubs at a reasonable or even slightly unreasonable price. Perhaps the Cubs can get Burnitz to come back for something less than $7 mil. or find someone else. Trades are just so uncertain. Sometimes something falls in your lap (like Lee and Ramirez) but those situations don't happen often. There's no way this team is a third place team. The Cubs were projected to make the playoffs last year with far less talent than this. By the way, does anyone think that Ramirez could be moved to rightfield with Nomar playing third? Ramirez isn't winning and gold gloves at 3rd base and Nomar could be very good there.

Here's a $100-$105 million roster I'd like to see that I think the Cubs could realistically put together. It features a lot of depth and flexibility that would allow the Cubs to safeguard against injuries and underperformance of youth. Because of his injury history, I don't know that I feel comfortable counting on Garciaparra to fill a regular role, but he'd make some kind of super-sub getting 400-500 at bats filling in at 2nd, 3rd, ss, and left along with pinch hitting. If we wanted to save a couple of million, I'd trade Patterson and add a 12th pitcher (Hill, Wellemeyer, Mitre, Van Buren or Leicester). I'd leave it up to Baker to keep everyone happy. Lee ($8 mil) Cedeno ($.3 mil) Furcal ($10 mil.) Ramirez ($10.5 mil) Barrett ($4.5 mil) Murton ($.3 mil) Lofton ($4 mil) Burnitz ($7 mil) Garciaparra ($4 mil. in base and $4 mil in incentives) Walker ($2.5 mil) Hairston ($1.8 mil.) Blanco ($1.5 mil.) Patterson ($2.8 mil.) Mark Sweeny ($1 mil.) Prior ($3.6 mil.) Wood ($11 mil.) Zambrano ($5-7 mil.) Williams ($1 mil.) Maddux ($9 mil.) Dempster ($5 mil.) Rusch ($2 mil.) Howry ($2 mil.) Navoa ($.5 mil.) Ohman ($.5 mil.) Wuertz ($.5 mil.)

He couldn't be hurt that badly. He pitched 4 innings in the Arizona Fall league and gave up 2 ER, 0 BBs and 5 SOs. An OK outing.

In my mind, this is the year to really evaluate Hendry. Last year he was hamstrung by Sosa's contract and wondering if he was going to be able to trade Sosa or not. He also had the Ramirez signing hanging over his head. The club was full of major questionmarks (the bullpen, Patterson, the bench, Hollandsworth, etc.) and there were few established prospects to maneuver with. This year Hendry has all the latitude in the world. He's got a lot of money to spend with the departure of Sosa, Hawkins, Remlinger, etc., he has legitimate prospects to trade for some A rated players if he wants to part with Cedeno, Hill, Murton, Williams, Mitre, etc., the only major signing he has to deal with is Dempster (who's contract should be managable), and, I think, he's got a much better idea of the capabilities of his club. If he messes up this off season, then I think it will be time to look for a new GM. My guess is he'll get the job done. I look for Hendry to get a leadoff man (Furcal), a lefty for the bullpen to supplement Ohman, and possibly one outfielder to play either left or right (I think Murton will be the 4th outfielder). If Maddux doesn't come back he'll also get a starting pitcher. He should be able to put the whole team together for well under $100 million in total salary, which will give him plenty of room to maneuver at the trade deadline.

I'd take Burnitz as the Cubs rightfielder next year if Dusty batted him 6th or 7th and we could get him for 4-5 mil. As a middle of the order hitter at $7 mil I'd definitely pass. Of course if Burnitz bats 6th, the Cubs will need to find another middle of the order guy (Giles anyone). Doesn't leave much room for a youth movement, but with Dusty as the manager, maybe a youth movement is just a dream.

Baker is not going anywhere next year and so it would be silly for Hendry to hope the young kids are going to get playing time unless there's injuries. Hendry has to face reality that Dusty likes the veterans and so he needs to build a team with a strong veteran bench and veteran starters that addresses Dusty's preferences. If he really wants the young guys to play, he needs a different manager, which isn't going to happen until 2007 at the earliest. My guess is that Hendry is counting on Wood and Maddux returning to the rotation next year and he's probably pretty comfortable with a rotation of Prior Zambrano Wood Maddux Hill/Mitre/Guzman/Rusch/Williams (take your pick) I also think that Hendry believes that whoever loses that fifth starters position will provide plenty of insurance against one of the starters going on the DL. The net/net is I don't see Hendry going after a starter. I do see Hendry shoring up the bullpen and I think he will go after Ryan, Wagner or someone else he thinks will be lights out in the 8th or 9th. I think he recognizes the value of having the 8th and 9th innings covered. I also think that he is satisfied with Dempster being one of those guys, but doesn't think he's got the other guy in house. There is an outside chance the team decides Wood needs to spend a year in the pen (ala John Smoltz) to protect his arm. If that happens, the money that would have gone into Ryan or Wagner will go into chasing Burnett, Millwood or another quality starter. I would certainly expect Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa to be in the pen next year with Rusch as the long man. The last spot is up for grabs. I think Hendry wants to salt away the lead off role which has been a major problem. I don't believe that Hendry is sold on Lawton and I don't expect him to be resigned. My guess is Hendry works hard to get Nomar signed to an incentive laden deal like last year with a lower base. If he gets it done, then I would look for Hendry to go after Damon hard provided the rumors about his steroid use are unfounded. If Damon is signed, Patterson is gone. If Hendry can't get Damon, I think he'll go hard after Furcal and Corey will stick around until Hendry is sure Pie is ready. As for the corners, I think Hendry still covets Kearns and Dunn and will try to pry one of them free. It may be expensive in the form of young talent, but I think he'll do it. I'll be interested to see if he makes Pie, Hill, Marshall or Guzman available (I don't think so), but I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of Williams, Mitre, Nolasco, Ryu, Wellemeyer, Pinto, Murton, Patterson, Dopirak, Sing, Harvey, etc are all made available as part of a package. As for the other corner, my guess is Burnitz is retained for one more year and then sent on his way in 2007 when Murton or Pie is ready. I also look for Walker to be retained because he's a bargain. The line-up is thus: Damon/Furcal Walker Lee Burnitz Ramirez Dunn/Kearns Garciaparra/Barrett Barrett/Patterson (Garciaparra might flip with Walker if he's healthy) As for the bench, Perez and Blanco are shoo ins. I wouldn't be surprised if Hollansworth, Hairston and Macias are all back, but I'd hope Hendry could at least get someone with some power that could replace Macias and rest Ramirez and Lee periodically. Ramirez and Lee are getting burned out. Corey Koskie, Rob Mackowiak or Russell Branyon maybe?

Baker is not going anywhere next year and so it would be silly for Hendry to hope the young kids are going to get playing time unless there's injuries. Hendry has to face reality that Dusty likes the veterans and so he needs to build a team with a strong veteran bench and veteran starters that addresses Dusty's preferences. If he really wants the young guys to play, he needs a different manager, which isn't going to happen until 2007 at the earliest. My guess is that Hendry is counting on Wood and Maddux returning to the rotation next year and he's probably pretty comfortable with a rotation of Prior Zambrano Wood Maddux Hill/Mitre/Guzman/Rusch/Williams (take your pick) I also think that Hendry believes that whoever loses that fifth starters position will provide plenty of insurance against one of the starters going on the DL. The net/net is I don't see Hendry going after a starter. I do see Hendry shoring up the bullpen and I think he will go after Ryan, Wagner or someone else he thinks will be lights out in the 8th or 9th. I think he recognizes the value of having the 8th and 9th innings covered. I also think that he is satisfied with Dempster being one of those guys, but doesn't think he's got the other guy in house. There is an outside chance the team decides Wood needs to spend a year in the pen (ala John Smoltz) to protect his arm. If that happens, the money that would have gone into Ryan or Wagner will go into chasing Burnett, Millwood or another quality starter. I would certainly expect Wuertz, Ohman and Novoa to be in the pen next year with Rusch as the long man. The last spot is up for grabs. I think Hendry wants to salt away the lead off role which has been a major problem. I don't believe that Hendry is sold on Lawton and I don't expect him to be resigned. My guess is Hendry works hard to get Nomar signed to an incentive laden deal like last year with a lower base. If he gets it done, then I would look for Hendry to go after Damon hard provided the rumors about his steroid use are unfounded. If Damon is signed, Patterson is gone. If Hendry can't get Damon, I think he'll go hard after Furcal and Corey will stick around until Hendry is sure Pie is ready. As for the corners, I think Hendry still covets Kearns and Dunn and will try to pry one of them free. It may be expensive in the form of young talent, but I think he'll do it. I'll be interested to see if he makes Pie, Hill, Marshall or Guzman available (I don't think so), but I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of Williams, Mitre, Nolasco, Ryu, Wellemeyer, Pinto, Murton, Patterson, Dopirak, Sing, Harvey, etc are all made available as part of a package. As for the other corner, my guess is Burnitz is retained for one more year and then sent on his way in 2007 when Murton or Pie is ready. I also look for Walker to be retained because he's a bargain. The line-up is thus: Damon/Furcal Walker Lee Burnitz Ramirez Dunn/Kearns Garciaparra/Barrett Barrett/Patterson (Garciaparra might flip with Walker if he's healthy) As for the bench, Perez and Blanco are shoo ins. I wouldn't be surprised if Hollansworth, Hairston and Macias are all back, but I'd hope Hendry could at least get someone with some power that could replace Macias and rest Ramirez and Lee periodically. Ramirez and Lee are getting burned out. Corey Koskie, Rob Mackowiak or Russell Branyon maybe?