twothousandfive

Since the ASB, Marshall has made 4 appearances for 6 innings. He's done okay, and was notably effective in a three inning stint replacing harden against Fla. Why didn't he get the call to replace Harden against the Astros? And why hasn't he gotten more innings while Howry keeps getting called upon? Howry is a bigger issue, I think. Howry should not be on the team -- Marquis should not be starting. There is an argument that, given their relative skills, Marshall is a better match for a long reliever role that Marquis, thus Marquis gets the starting spot. If Marshall (and it matters that he's a lefty) couldn't be counted on for two + innings to replace Harden and two plus innings replacing Marquis or Dempster (who seem next most likely to need a long reliever,but for different reasons), it would make sense to build those 5-6 innings into every turn through the rotation, occasionally deviating as needs dictated. Those innings could be as valuable as the six innings Marquis throws as a starter. But since that is not what is happening, it is difficult to justify Marquis over Marshall. Right now, I believe Marshall is the better choice as a starter, and the usage indicates Marshall is pretty much wasting in the bullpen. Marquis doesn't eat innings, which is a big knock against him. He's not even at six innings/start, is he? He served a role by taking his turn every time through as the Cubs got a better sense of talent with Gallagher and Marshall, and he helped keep the Cubs from burning out the younger guys. He is good to have around in case they believe someone (Dempster?) can benefit from skipping a turn, and in case of a DL stint (Zambrano). But he isn't one of the five best starters currently on the team.

I'd say 2010 is at least a year early. Given the moves they've made, I think it is reasonable to think they expect top finish around .450 this year (73-89), with an eye toward .500 or very close next year. That's probably a touch ambitious for next year, given that it is tough to see who on their current roster might be poised for solid improvement into next year (Adam LaRouche, maybe). But they could very easily see bigger contributions from Snell, Karstens, maybe Maholm. Into 2010, they'll have a much better sense of the guys they just traded for, and if they are progressing, 2011 could be a big year. They wouldn't really have to trade either McLouth or Doumit in 2010. The Pirates might be contenders in 2011, and building around a CF and C is a decent way to get there.

I think it is possible that, in order for Zambrano to be able to go 120 or so when it matters, he has to build up the stamina. That 118, after the 125, might be what enables him to almost always have it in him to go the distance. It's possible that building to 120+ in October or in a crucial Sep game requires a few back-to-back during the season.

What was the Cubs record in those 4+ run lead games? Given that he was calling on those guys in the 7th or 8th as often as later, it might have been better than league average. Usage patterns are great to worry about, right up until everyone is used perfectly, but game are lost. Clearly, no one has an answer on why Eyre seems to be buried. But (nothwithstanding some small criticism that Z went in the 8th and ended up with 118) everyone with the possible exception of Shark should be able to go two days in a row, in the right circumstances. That means all are available Thursday, and all but Samardija available today. I think that's pretty good management, which weighs nicely against a pretty good w-l record.

Since the brewers are very good against lefties, I think Lilly goes in favor of a right-hander -- if it is early, I guess that's got to be Howry -- appropriate, since he now seems to be much more suited to middle-relief than late innings. Looks to me like a close games means two innings for Marmol -- assuming Gaudin and Samardzija will be available Tuesday, the Cubs can live with that. In fact, if it's close and Sabathia is out of the game, they should consider replacing Lilly with Marmol, even in the sixth or seventh. Let some combination of Howry, Cotts, Eyre get through the final inning or inning +.

So, if it all works out, will Fontenot be the LH DH in the world series? Or will he start at 2B, with DeRosa moving to LF, and Soriano at DH? Since outside of the CF platoon, there is no righty who struggles against RHs, it is tough to get Fontenot in the line-up regularly -- although he essentially got the nod over Edmonds on Saturday. With everyone rested and healthy, does Fontenot play against all righties?

If they are worried about keeping Harden healthy, then I agree with the strategy of having Marshall ready to go 2-3 innings (maybe more) and come in right after Harden. In fact, if they could get some space between Dempster and Harden in the rotation, they could do something similar with him, and it might be a great way to make sure Dempster doesn't hit the wall. It might mean incremental value out of all the efforts put into stretching out Marshall, and it also keep him ready to take a start, if and when they decide Marquis can't be trusted. If they could separate Marquis and Harden, maybe they could employ the same thing strategy with Marquis, and it is that much easier to go to Marshall in the third or fourth, if needed. Marshall probably has a bit less value following Lilly, which may mean trouble for the Monday game against Milwaukee. If Gaudin (two days in a row) and Samardzija (can't go back-to-back games) aren't available, it means Marshall, Cotts, Eyre, Howry and Marmol. Iowa is in Vegas (Hart took the loss), so I'm not sure there can even be a roster move that would help. Other than Fielder, I think almost all the Brewers hit lefties better than righties. Yikes!

Even if it isn't as simple as that, I think it is fair to say they have scouted and evaluated him well this year. Given some of the comments and his stats, I know I didn't exactly understand why he was the guy called up, and not Wuertz, Hart (is he off the DL?) Ascanio, or even Ceda. Maybe they were just hoping to catch lightening in a bottle, but they have. In September last year, Hart gave up 7 hits and 4 walks in 11 innings. Samardzija has given up 2 hits in four innings. I think it is very possible that he puts 9 guys on in his next 7 innings, but even if he doesn't, the sample size makes it irrevelant.

I suppose you can make the argument Gaudin is more versatile, but he was in the pen for Oakland while Joe Blanton started. That makes me wonder exactly how talented he is as a starter. And as a reliever, he seems to excel in the 2-inning stints, putting him as a middle relief guy. Given the effectiveness of Cubs starters, unless Piniella is looking to limit pitch counts, I don't see how often Gaudin is going to make the difference by pitching the 6th & 7th or 7th & 8th, with some combination of Howry, Marmol, Wood healthy. Certainly, Gaudin should start warming in the fifth for every one of Marquis' starts, but for the other guys, we should be looking for a world where Gaudin's skills aren't needed. With Wood not available, it becomes a bit different, with Gaudin maybe slotting right behind Howry and Marmol, and if one of those guys needs the night off, Gaudin can take the eighth or ninth. But if Wood doesn't come back soon, they need another short man. If it is true that Sherrill, Street and Fuentes are all available, this is the perfect time for Hendry to leak his best offer to the press, and see one of those GMs come and take it. With Veal, Ceda, Hart, Ascanio for young arms, and maybe Colvin and even Vitters, the Cubs should have what it takes to make a deal.

EDIT:ddwyer wrote that statement. Fair enough disagreement, even after my edit. Among my big worries is the DH against a lefty in the WS. Let's say it is the Red Sox, and the Cubs face Lester twice (games 2 & 6, though very unlikely). What would you think the Cubs line-up should be? And the Red Sox can bring Okajima in in the eighth, so it is an ongoing problem. I don't want to see Cedeno or Blanco in the starting line-up, as of right now. Who is your DH, and if it's Soriano, who is in LF and CF (and RF for that matter).I think preparing for that scenario, and gaining a valuable PH for Aug, is worth the price of Hart or Ceda.

Because Fontenot is the preferred back-up at 2B (ahead of Cedeno) and DeRosa is the non-defensive back-up for corner OFs (and sometimes 1B and 3B). In essence, Fontenot backs up three-five positions. I think you could make the case that a clear upgrade to DeRosa as back-up corner OF would step into Fotenot's spot, but it is unlikely to happen. If Hart and Ceda could bring back Blake, I'd do it. He can be very useful if the Cubs are in a position to rest some players in September, and he's the RH DH if they make it to the world series. EDIT: Meant Hart OR Ceda -- basically depending on if Cleveland wanted a pitcher for next year, or someone who might take longer.

Tony Clark won't be the addition, thankfully. If the Cubs are tinkering to get just a bit better, clearly they can either improve at the margins or in depth. A bullpen can always be upgraded, but the cost may be a bit high. With Gaudin added to Wood, Eyre and Marmol, I'm not sure they should pay what it will take to get someone better than them. And someone who is not as good may not even be as good as Cotts and Wuertz. A RH bat, who can also play OF better than DeRosa would be helpful. Does Jay Payton fit the bill? He still hits lefties pretty well, and would be a nice defensive replacement if something happened to Edmonds/Johnson. But is he better than Jason Dubois? Maye Kevin Mench can help. -- he hit lefties well last year. Mark Grudzielanik could play that role, as well. Who goes to make room for that bat is a very good question.

For good defense, does that mean Soriano is DH at the AL ballpark? If it's a LH pitcher, Johnson would play CF, they need someone for LF, and late in the game Edmonds would come in to CF, Johnson would move to LF, Soriano doesn't have to be lifted. Who is that RF to start the game? It can't be DeRosa -- is it Jason Dubois, who is mashing in Iowa?

A right handed PH who can also be RH DH in the world series. And maybe a lefty if Ward doesn't look like he can get the job done. Tony Clark is not appropriate for either or both roles.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-carlos-marmol/ This link, from the other Marmol thread, led to a suggestion that Marmol should be used in the highest-lev situations -- when he's bad, it's BBs, HBP, and HRs. That adds up to more than 1 run at a time. So, if he's brought into a one-run game, he blows it, just as maybe some of the less highly regarded guys would. But they are less likely to blow a three plus run lead. "Bad" Marmol can (as we have seen) blow a four-five run even more easily than those guys. I think the appearance at Comiskey was a truly high-lev one. Other than that, he hasn't been used in a tight situation. I wonder if the right moves after the ASB are to bring him in during an inning, with one guy out and one or more on, in a one-run game. The only recent mid-inning appearances were Dempster's win versus Cin, and the debacle in SF after Ascanio fell apart. Even if he's warmed up, I'd say let someone else start the inning, then bring Marmol in.

At the major league level, I agree. I can't help but wonder about his ability to get value back for true prospects. I think of Bobby Hill, Choi and Mitre as guys where, once he saw them in the majors, he knew they were just fodder, and found a team that hadn't figured that out. But I can't help but wonder if that analysis extends into the minors. Now, maybe it's because the Cubs just haven't been able to get anyone to the prized prospect level, but Corey Patterson, Felix Pie (?), Ronny Cedeno, Bobby Hill, Angel Guzman, and others seem to have really hit peak value at triple A. As a result they got a shot with the Cubs, and none (so far) have proven themselves. Of course, that might be a philosophy -- rarely trade a high minors guy until you see him at Wrigley. It's worked out, but I wonder if it is luck or design.

I think Beane wants in Murton back in Oakland quickly, because he knows there are three good options for Murton -- 1) play him and get production, 2) trade him before the deadline and get either someone who is more help this year, or aprospect, or 3) trade Murton or the prospect in the offseason. I'll bet Murton plays for Sacramento on Monday, then gets to Oakland asap after that. Given his hot second halfs, I think Beane wants to get either some of that lightening, or get another chess piece. Clearly, Murton is one of their best three OFs right now. Gallagher was probably the only player on the Cubs who could make this work for Oakland. I agree with Callis that Beane might have held out for more (Ceda, Ascanio, Hart) but a $7 million pitcher on the DL is devastating to Oak. But they needed someone to take that spot in the rotation -- and someone who is very, very cheap. Right now, Gallagher's first year matches up with Felix Hernandez and Chad Billingsley -- not that he projects at their levels. Currently there are nine rookie pitchers under 24 with 10 or more starts -- Justin Masterson in Bos has 9 starts, and they aren't going to give him up this season for Harden. Of the others Greg Reynolds in Col, Garret Olson in BAL, and Like Hochevar in KC ( second season?) haven't pitched as well as Gallagher (not sure how they project) and their teams aren't contending. The other six are Cueto (Cin), Lannan (Wash), Jurrjens (ATL), Smith (OAK), Laffey (CLE). Only Atl is even close, but Jurrjens is part of the reason, and if they are willing to discuss Hudson, then they don't match up, either. Clearly, the Cubs were among very few contending teams with a major league ready (and tested) starter with 0 years of service. So Beane had Boston (Masterson, Buchholz), Dodgers (Kershaw), and Arizona again (Scherzer, in the pen) as other possibles. It is easy these days to give Beane every benefit of the doubt, but my guess is he knew (certainly after the Sabathia deal) that the Cubs were the team most likely to give him a replacement for Harden, and throw in other pieces. he probably also wanted to do it quickly, because the marginal benefit of holding to get a bit more was outweighed by Harden's injury history.

Their are five starts between now and the break. One goes to Harden, the others are Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and . . . . Marquis rather than Marshall. That means either Harden goes Sat in Marshall's spot (and an extra day of rest for Harden) or he goes Friday and Marquis gets the extra. In either case an extra helps each guy, and Marshall can stay on schedule in Iowa -- Sat, Thurs, Tues. If he stays with the Cubs, he's the one who gets pushed back, so it would be Sat then probably Monday - a week later. This why, Marshall stays on schedule, and by the week after the break, it will be much more clear if Marquis is doing his second half fold.

It's hindsight versus when the pick was made, but don't the Cubs have a young catcher who is one of the best in the game (as far as we can tell right now)?

Is Hill still on the 40-man roster? So long as he is, it wouldn't be too difficult to get him onto the post-season roster. I'm not sure seven weeks will be enough time to get the stamina and consistency that will be needed to be on the 25-man roster on Aug 31, not to mention winning the confidence of Piniella and others.

From a quick look at the stats, it looks like it's been a month since Fukudome wenthitless in back-to-back starts, and he drew a walk in each of those games. That's far from a scientific method of determining value, but as slumps go, he is far from dead weight in the line-up, despite the anemic OBP recently.

I suspect turning that prospect around in a deal for a top starter will net more value than Murton. Any top starter available will probably be from a team that isn't contending (Oak is always in a different category). If a team is looking to next year and beyond, Murton doesn't do anything for them. The contending Rays, on the other hand, just might pay up for a corner outfield who can put up a .940 OPS in August and September. The trick will be to get Tampa to believe that Murton can repeat his Aug/Sep from 2007, AND that he's a corner outfielder on a par with Hinske, Gross, Gomez. He'd really be competing with Gomez as the righty in a platoon -- you know, Murton makes some sense for Tampa. I agree they are better guys out there, but if they are looking for a platoon player rather than an everyday starter, Murton fits well. When Bartlett is back, would they give up Brignac?

I heard about the change on the pre-game, and loved it. It means Marquis only gets one more start before the break. And clearly, Marquis is the odd-man out when it comes to adjusting the rotation -- I'm sure Z, Lilly and Dempster will all get special consideration for their effectiveness. Gallagher will get special considerations for his age (they may go the extra mile to keep him on a regular schedule with a lower pitch count) and Marquis just has to deal with it. It might even keep the pressure on Marquis to not have back-to-back stinkers, and maybe that will work out. It is also possible Marquis really tires as they year goes on. I remember Piniella mentioning something like that last year (trying to find a way to keep him strong). I've been convinced since he didn't pitch in the post-season that Marquis is the first guy pulled from the rotation when something better comes along, and this confirms it for me. Piniella didn't let him get away with mouthing off in the spring, and had made a few trips to the mound to chew out Marquis this year. If somehow this keeps Marquis' second half starts to 12 or less (versus 18 prior to the break) that's good -- and offers the possibility that Marquis can keep his ERA near 4.5, as opposed to the full extra run he's let up in the second half for the last three years.

I'd prefer Fukudome spend three days away from the Japanese and US media. I hear Traverse City is nice, and not quite as far away as Kyoto. Someone should suggest a good sushi place in TC. It's tough to figure out from just games played, but Lee, Fukudome and Soto are the guys who look to me to be most likely to need a rest. Lee has been through this before, and won't go to NY, so he's the safest bet of the bunch. If Soto and Fukudome end up in NY, I hope they each get at least two games off in July after the break (the schedule has none). It looks like three day games after night games, as well as a night game in Arizona followed by a night game in Florida. That might even be four useful days off for Soto.

I'm not worried at all, because if/when Zambrano returns, I believe they have 4 starters they can count on -- Marshall last night confirmed, for me, the he belongs in the rotation. Add last night to last season, and he is better than Marquis. Simple as that. Gallagher, if he fades or struggles, can swap out with Marquis for starter #5/5A, and Leiber is always available for the odd double header, + injury and fatigue issue. Ascanio belongs, so with Marmol, Wood, Ascanio and Cotts (at least until Eyre comes back) they've got 7, 8, and 9 covered. They look to have avoided season-ending injuries, so that time on the DL ends up providing a pretty nice rest (which Ramirez will now get, as well). The schedule suggests that if they are in first at the end of July, they should be able to extend their lead. Coming out of St. Louis, if they are in first place, it will be tough to imagine them not playing well enough post-ASB to stay in front.