Hacking Out Machine

I think Hendry did his job. He provided JoBo in '04 and Dempster in '05. JoBo got injured and Dempster was mistakenly placed in the rotation. True, once JoBo went down, Hendry was unable to bring in another closer, but its not like they grow on trees. If a team has an effective closer, why would they trade him? I think that, if anything, the relative lack of return on these two moves(Rem and Hawkins) suggests that paying top dollar for "proven" bullpen guys is the wrong way to go about things. It seems that in the grand scheme of things, GM's tend to be "late" in acquiring relievers. For example, there are probably a lot of people who think that Guillermo Mota is among the best non-closer relievers in baseball, when the truth is that he is very far into the downside of his career. He was however, very useful when he was cheap. This has happened with Remlinger and Hawkins. Hendry just through cash at the bullpen and acquired the two guys who were percieved as the best relievers available after '02 and '03 rather than looking for guys in the minors with good track records. As far as non-closing bullpen guys go, the pecking order is very fluid. In any given year, people haven't even heard of who the best relievers in baseball are until about August. The Angels of the past couple of years are a good example of how to piece together a bullpen. They didn't go get(and pay several million for) the Al Levines or the David Weathers of the world. Instead, they gave guys like Kevin Gregg, Brendan Donnelley, Scot Shields and K Rod opportunities. At this point, very soon, they'll probably let most if not all of them go(save K Rod). Some team like the Cubs will pay 9 mil over 3 years for Donnelley , et al and be disappointed while the Angels bring in another bunch of guys at the minimum who outperform the previous regime. If I'm Jim Hendry, this winter I ask Seattle what they want for George Sherrill,and the Yankees what they want for Colter Bean. That would be a start to a potentially effective bullpen at a low cost. If Tim Byrdak hadn't been called up by the Orioles and done well, I'd try to get him too. Just my two cents.

Ah, a kindred spirit. I thought I was the only one who thought that Sabean was among the many dolts who call themselves GM's today. You sum it up well here, and Tim mentioned the Ponson thing. All Sebean ever does is trade young players for mediocrities who don't improve his team. Foppert isn't the darling that he once was, but he still has a good chance of becoming a very good pitcher. Trading him for a guy like Randy Winn, who is an upgrade over maybe 5 or 6 outfielders in the majors is a moronic move. There are probably 50 guys in AAA who are as good as Winn, maybe more. One other point about the Ponson trade in '03. If I remember right, the Giants were up by something like 10 games in the division when they traded for him, and Ainsworth, Ryan Hannahan and Damian Moss were all good arms at the time. They didn't need him to win the division, and he stunk in the playoffs, which was not an unfathomable occurence. They then failed to offer him arbitration, leaving them with nothing while the Orioles resigned him over the winter. 3 good arms for a pitcher they never needed. Another example of a GM infatuated with "proven veteran" mediocrity. Can we talk to him about Matt Cain?

I just want to say thank you to Rafael Palmiero for picking up the torch from Kenny Rogers in the race for the most annoyingly re-hashed national sports radio topic.

Exactly. Ryan has 10 times the stuff that Joe ever had. He has amoving fastball that he runs up in the mid to high 90's, and a wicked slider. If he had great command of the strike zone, he'd be unhittable. You know, I get really bothered when people criticize Borowski's "stuff". This year and last year, he obviously didn't have it, but he certainly did in '02 and '03. It's a mistake to say he got by on guile and dirty tricks. I can see calling a guy lucky if he gives up a ton of hits and doesn't strike out anyone, but that wasn't the case at all with Joe during those years. 163 K's compared to 137 hits allowed over 2 years of heavy use is pretty darn dominating in my opinion. You can't do that in the major leagues without having good stuff. I don't think anyone had stuff 10 times better than Borowski, let alone a fastball/slider goof like Demspster(fastball/slider goof is a term of endearment by the way). Am I the only guy that remembers Joe just rearing back and blowing the Braves away in the 9th inning in game 5 of the NLDS in Atlanta?

The Score are a bunch of morons. I think it's obvious that Gerut will be playing CF against right handers. If this is the case, he's an upgrade over Hairston, at least against righties. The Cubs have all but come out and say that they despise Hairston, so they figured out a way to get him more time on the pine. Gerut is the anti-Hairston(in the Cubs eyes) as he is a heady, intelligent guy. It simply doesn't make logical sense to acquire Gerut if your intention is to throw him into the mix in left field, especially when he'd be an upgrade in center part of the time. He hasn't played a lot of center, but he definitely won't be a defensive downgrade compared to Hairston. Also, even Dusty isn't dumb enough to play Gerut every day against lefties. Murton and Hollandsworth both are better options. Hollandsworth actually has done ok against them this year, and Murton has done nothing to suggest he can't do well against them as well.

I really dislike the Reds and Mets unis right now, the biggest reason being those stupid two tone hats with the colored bills. Why the Reds went away from the classic bright red hats with the white c on them is beyond me. Everyone has this obsession with adding black to their uni's, and I just don't get it. Their current hats stink. The Mets blue hats were good too. The current black ones are really ugly. They occasionally break out all white uni's with the blue hats every now and then, and these are by far their best unis. Also, I'll agree with everyone on the Padres road uni's. Off yellow? That reminds me of things i'd rather not have on my uniform.

Wow, another Colter Bean fan. Let me be the first to commend you on your astute appreciation for a reliever that gets people out, no matter how funny he looks doing it! Three neat young relievers: Colter Bean, David Aardsma, Ryan Wagner. We have one. I want all three. I'm greedy. He's not young, (28) but I'd take George Sherrill too. Looks like the Mariners just called him up, but I like him.

Wow, another Colter Bean fan. Let me be the first to commend you on your astute appreciation for a reliever that gets people out, no matter how funny he looks doing it!

I mentioned this about 3 or 4 pages back, but the bickering about spelling errors and such buried it. Does anyone else think Gerut will be our new CF against RHP? If this is the case it actually makes some sense as his splits against RHP are pretty good. Otherwise, like everyone else here, I don't see the point, especially if the Cubs have plans to bring back Patterson soon. Based on what we have read lately, it seems the Cubs don't like Hairston. I think they made this move as a way to replace him vs righties. I don't think this move will have any effect on the LF situation. (Unfortunately, it probably also means that Adam Greenberg's only big league AB for the foreseeable future was a very painful one.)

Thanks everyone. MLB.com did list HBP but showed 0 in both categories. Come to think of it, I do remember Hairston getting hit several times. Not sure why I didn't realize that MLB's stats are wrong.

Since the trade for Gerut was made, I was trying to compare Gerut and Hairston's numbers vs RHP. Here are Hairston's stats: Jerry Hairston OF Go to Player Bio >> CAREER STATS | SPLITS | GAME BY GAME LOG | HITTING CHART| POSTSEASON & ALL-STAR Hitting Splits, 2005: Entire Season TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG vs Left-handed Pitcher Chicago Cubs 37 94 14 25 5 1 2 7 38 6 13 1 4 .310 .404 .266 vs Right-handed Pitcher Chicago Cubs 58 139 21 37 10 0 2 11 53 15 18 5 4 .338 .381 .266 Home Chicago Cubs 40 120 21 30 8 1 3 11 49 10 9 3 4 .308 .408 .250 Away Chicago Cubs 33 113 14 32 7 0 1 7 42 11 22 3 4 .347 .372 .283 Grass Chicago Cubs 73 233 35 62 15 1 4 18 91 21 31 6 8 .327 .391 .266 Day Chicago Cubs 39 119 18 27 10 0 3 9 46 9 12 4 3 .281 .387 .227 Night Chicago Cubs 34 114 17 35 5 1 1 9 45 12 19 2 5 .373 .395 .307 Mar and Apr Chicago Cubs 18 59 11 15 5 0 0 1 20 6 8 1 2 .323 .339 .254 May Chicago Cubs 25 82 13 22 6 0 1 3 31 10 12 4 4 .348 .378 .268 June Chicago Cubs 16 37 3 11 1 1 1 5 17 1 4 1 1 .316 .459 .297 July Chicago Cubs 14 55 8 14 3 0 2 9 23 4 7 0 1 .305 .418 .255 Before All-Star Chicago Cubs 68 210 32 58 15 1 3 13 84 20 29 6 8 .339 .400 .276 After All-Star Chicago Cubs 5 23 3 4 0 0 1 5 7 1 2 0 0 .208 .304 .174 Season Totals Chicago Cubs 75 233 35 62 15 1 4 18 91 21 31 6 8 .347 .391 If his OBP is .310 vs lefties, and .338 vs righties, I come up with an overall OBP of .327. Why is his listed OBP .347. I really hope I don't look like a moron for posting this question if it is easily explained, but I'm stumped. Can someone shed some light?

Jumping in late on this, and I'm not sure if this is the consensus, but to me it looks like Jody Gerut will be our CF against righties. He's only played 26 games in his career in center, but it sure looks like this is the plan. The organization doesn't like Hairston. Maybe Dusty is tired of dodging his foul balls in the 3rd base dugout. If they think Hairston is "dumb", then they are definitely getting the antithesis of dumb with Gerut. He's Stanford educated, and known to be one of the most articluate guys around, kind of like Doug Glanville in that regard. I'm still trying to figure out if I like the move. I can say this: I sure hope he doesn't get any ABs against lefties. Righties, ok, since he has put up about a .290 .360 .455 line against them in his career. We'll see what happens, but my guess is that this move effects Hairston the most. Well, Greenberg too I guess. Come to think of it, Patterson too. I have no clue what they will do if they have plans on bringing Patterson back up. Maybe this signifies that they don't have any such plans at all?

No one else wanted Glendon Rusch. No one else wanted Joe Borowski in '03. I just really hate that line of reasoning, that because 29 idiots passed on somebody that he's worthless. Very good points. Ben Grieve could easily find a niche as an outstanding pinch hitter if he accepts the role. He has all the attributes: He can't play defense, he's slower than molasses, but he can get on base and he has some power. There's no reason that he can't be extremely valuable off the bench, a la Dave Hansen circa 2001 or Mark Sweeney now.

I think it's pretty obvious that a pitcher's greatest value is when he's starting, but there is no doubt that Hill can help the Cubs right now in the bullpen. Lefties cannot hit him. I know it's a small sample size, but of the six lefties he faced while in the big leagues this year, he walked one and got the rest out, striking out three. He made the likes of Tino Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Geoff Jenkins look feeble against him. Meanwhile, he gave up a .200 .333 .400 line against righties, with a couple of screaming line drive outs in that long outing against the Brewers. He still struck out 6 righties in 4 innings, though. Having said that, it still looked pretty obvious that he was most likely going to walk any dangerous righty he faced, so at this point, it's the understatement of the year that the jury is out on him vs righties in the big leagues. I generally agree that I would be disappointed if he were typecast as a reliever, but if he is better than the guys you currently have, and can serve a purpose as a strike out reliever, it would behoove you to bring him up and use him regularly, especially after September 1st.

I've gotta be honest. No offense, but I can't believe some of the things some of us are finding as important. He doesn't have enough sac flies? Well, Aramis Ramirez has none so far this year. Does that scare us to death? On a Reds radio braodcast, Marty Brenneman mentioned that stat, but said someone in the Reds organization did some research and found that Dunn had 9 homers in those at bats, which is actually as good as 18 sac flies. I'm guessing that would pretty much lead the league. If you don't want Adam Dunn because his power and patience hinders him from making "productive outs" then I think you are outsmarting yourself.

Nah, lefty starting today. Wait til we hit a stretch of righties. Murton will be glued to the bench same as Cedeno, who is in a really bad situation, as he's getting skipped even vs. lefties That's too bad for Cedeno too, because about the only time that Neifi even resembles a useful offensive player is when he's facing lefties. He's got a .480 SLG against them this year, as opposed to a .350 range against righties. Against lefties, he's actually borderline useful, since he definitely has proven himself defensively with his great range. Against righties, Neifi is beyond helpless. Too bad Ronny doesn't bat lefty. Actually, even as a righty, he can't be any worse than Neifi right? Not that Dusty would be astute enough to even notice Neifi's splits...

WGW, I really agree with you. If you are a statistical analysis guy, (like a lot of us seem to be here), you can't be excited. The overwhelming majority of the players selected(save the high schoolers) either fooled nobody(pitchers) or scared nobody(hitters) in college. Hendry and Co have had good success in "projecting" pitchers, so I can't really argue with their picks, but I can say that it certainly doesn't seem likely that these guys have much potential. As for the hitters, there hasn't been any track record of this regime's ability to develop any hitter worth a darn in the bigs, so I feel comfortable in asking why they think someone with no power and no ability to get on base makes sense to draft. "Hacking Out Machine" is my username, but I also think it could describe most if not all of the position players we drafted. Some players in the organization have made some good strides lately in drawing walks, so maybe the Cubs are starting to stress that to the guys they have. I truly hope they are going in this direction, since their refusal to draw walks at the big league level is reason 1, 2, 3 and 4 why they are so inconsistent offensively. Having said that, the types of guys they drafted this year show no evidence that this is the case.

Sorry to snip just a part of your post. Felix's OBP is revolved around a high BA. He has a lesser understanding of the strike zone and pitch recognition than Corey did when he was rushed up from AA. Thus, I don't think his OBP is sustainable if he's promoted to the big leagues now (since his BA is likely to drop). Felix Pie is not ready. Sadly, I agree with you - the hype/chatter in regards to Felix makes it seem like he would have been called up if he hadn't hurt himself. Agreed. Although Pie showed a lot of improvement in the first couple of months in his number of BBs, walking is definitely not his M.O. That being the case, it's almost impossible to expect him to walk with any kind of regularity up in the majors. We'd most likely be looking at a Corey-like OBP in the .280's and that isn't good for anybody. Another factor is his lack of success in stealing bases. The last thing I'd want to see is him get thrown out trying to steal in the rare times he does reach base. If he leads off, the Cubs better be ready to see a decline in the offense compared to if Hairston led off. If they make that move while still expecting to contend, they'd be kidding themselves. If they make it knowing they're done for the year, it's palatable. At least then Felix can get his intial phase of struggles out of the way now.

I think you're asking a lot to get 2 "consistent" all stars in one trade. I don't think anyone is saying that these guys are going to be consistent all stars, i.e. Derrek Lee has been solid for many years and this is his first all star game. I think they can potentially be that, but more likely solid above average major leaguers. Off the top of my head, if you want to talk about borderline all stars/solid major leaguers, how about Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson? That trade happened in 1998, and all three are still in the majors. You can make a case that both Guillen and Garcia are all star caliber. Halama had some solid years as well. Also, Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe were traded for Heathcliff Slocumb. I think both of those guys have made all star teams. I'm sure some other people will come up with more....

Ask them to throw in Julio Franco! Just kidding.

As long as Neifi Perez is hitting at the top of the order, Lee has no chance at the triple crown. Absolutely zero. Quentin and Jackson are currently pasting Triple A pitching. They are both ready today. They are not a couple of AA players who are 6 years away from significant contribution. I tend to think that Derrek Lee's probability of regressing to the mean is very high. I'd be more comfortable predicting a future performace more in line with 7 years of past performance, rather than 3 months. Don't get me wrong. I love DLee. Power and OBP are without a doubt the most important aspects of a championship offense, and I think the concept of strong defense at 1st is vastly underrated. Having said that, the possibility of adding more power and OBP for a player likely to regress to the mean makes sense to me. Especially when 1B is the easiest position to replace. Sure Jay Marriotti and Caller Joe from Arlington Heights would cry a river, but forgive me if I'm not too worried about that. Who am I kidding? This trade would never happen anyway. I just think it's certainly logical to consider it.

Great info, and I especially agree with you about the lead balloon part. About 5% of the Cub fan population would agree with the move, but i think that 5% would be right. I just think that the fact that a shortsighted organization having these prospects while still considering themselves contenders is an exciting proposition.Like Tim, I'll continue to try to invent ways for us to relieve them of those three, or at least one or two of them.

Oh, I agree with you. I don't think they would ever consider trading him. I just wish they'd think about it.

Yeah, but KC would be smart to trade for Sisco's Rule V rights so they could send him down to AA to retool him as a starter. Otherwise it would be a wasted draft pick IMO. Trading Dubois and Sisco's rights for Affeldt sounds like a decent trade to me. Excuse my first post, but I don't think KC has any intention of trading for Sisco's rights right now, because he is actually helping them at the major league level. They aren't going anywhere, so what is the danger in keeping him on the roster? He's still young, so they can start him in AAA next year if they want to go that route. Also, I don't see the point in acquiring Affeldt. He's had some flashes of competence, but what has he ever done to make himself desirable to get, other than that shiny "veteran" label? Arm troubles and middling performance don't excite me. I don't think he'd be an upgrade anywhere on the roster. I'm sure he's not as good as Rich Hill. Welcome aboard. I think that the main motivation would be so that he could go down in the minors and work on starting and get more innings in. This way he would be able to progress more as a pitcher. While it may help them at the major league level this year, does it really make a difference with that team? They aren't going any where so they might as well work towards the future. Thanks for the kind words. Heck, they might as well just slap him in the big league rotation. He's done ok with major leaguers so far. Might as well give that a try rather than giving something up to keep him at triple A. If at this point, the Cubs can still salvage something for Sisco, Jim Hendry would deserve a medal.

I'm new to NSBB(as a poster) but I've been lurking with great pleasure for a couple years. I felt compelled to throw something out there. I'm not sure if this has been floated before, but I am head over heels in love with 3 prospects from the Diamondbacks: Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson and Stephen Drew. I'm pretty sure that everyone is familiar with these guys, so I'll spare everyone the details on them. Everyone knows that the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. Well, right now, Derrek Lee's trade value couldn't possibly be any higher. Obviously, I love the guy. He's easily been the best player in the game for the first half, and does everything well, on and off the field. However, his first half performance is so far over his career numbers that we can't possibly expect him to do anything other than see his production fall off, perhaps significantly. Even with his unbelieveable year, with the way the rest of this offense is constructed, we still can't score. The Cubs #1 priority right now should be to flood the roster with OBP and power. Throw in the fact that the most replaceable position on the field to replace is first base, and I think it makes sense to consider dealing D Lee, especially if it will net 2 or even three of these guys. The Diamondbacks are a team that has proven that they prefer proven commodities to waiting for prospects, (see Mantei for Penny trade, et al) and they have spent a lot of resources on older players. This would suggest their future is now. With the rest of the NL West struggling, they look to be in the race for good. They are also using Chad Tracy on a regular basis at first base, so they can stand to improve there. I realize we have something great with Lee, but I also think the opportunity exists to greatly improve the team in the long run. You could even explore the possibility of expanding the trade and including Patterson or some other parts the Diamondbacks could use(Rusch, Wuertz) if the Diamondbacks needed to drop salary(Luis Gonzalez). I'm just dreaming here, but I think the Cubs should explore cashing in their best chip to improve the offense for a long time.