Scotti

Checking out MiLB.com, Felin had 24 IP but Inoa did not log any ABs. Albuquerque was converted from catcher, I think. Ya'll seem to be remembering Tim's confusion last year:

Craig, the only word I ever got on Albuquerque was "RHP Alberto Albuquerque is a guy who should skip through the system quickly; I expect he'll start above Mesa in the system" from Oneri Fleita on here about a year ago. When you say he’s a control pitcher is that based on his fastball, numbers or a different “scouting” type opinion? Does that imply not so much FB or just few BB? Thanks, Scotti

Wrigley packs 'em in. I'm torn because it's harder to get tickets and my son is now 12 BUT the gate pays for guys like Lee, Ramirez, etc...

I don't think Sosa would have worked out so well a 2B.

Boy, ARod (351/448/666/1.114), Sheff (300/381/534/915), and Jeter (354/444/522/966) sure did prove that to be true last year. Good hitters will hit no matter where they are playing. And I'm sure those good hitters would have done even better if Yankee Stadium was known as The House That Dimaggio Built: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/stadium?team=nyy BTW, Soriano had OPS of over .800 @ The House That DiMaggio Didn't Build in both '02 and '03. Those are good numbers for a speedy 2B especially when he put up much better numbers on the road.

I don't think there is such a thing as getting a grasp on Soriano. While with NY he put up MONSTER road stats (Yankee Stadium is not friendly to RHH). One would assume that he would have put up monster numbers at a hitter's park both home and away but he didn't (and if he did he would NOT be available). Did he stop taking pitches? No. Has he slowed down? No. Did his power diminish? No. He is what he is. A very good offensive player with power and speed. If he added OBP he would be a great player but there's no reason to expect him to suddenly go Bonds on you. He is what he is.

it has to do with trends. i wouldn't necessarily agree that soriano will never return to his career norms, but i think he needs to improve his plate discipline over anything. i wouldn't care that he's a butcher in the field if he got on base. this is a stat that he's never had, and i don't want him if he doesn't show improvement anyway. 2001 .304, 2002 .332, 2003 .338, 2004 .324, 2005 .309. There is a TWO-year trend down. I don't find two-year trends very significant w/out any attached reason for such a trend. On September 3rd of last year Soriano was at .321 for his OBP. If he can do it for 5 months he can do it for 6. His "trend" isn't really much of a concern for me.

Are you comparing Jones and Soriano? No.

Why is it that certain players are "going to return to their career (or three-year) norms" while others are washed up at 30?

Soriano's career .500 SLG is 92nd ALL-TIME: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SLG_career.shtml

I doubt he's productive at all, but you can't blame him for sticking around. He's due 17 million in 2006 and 18 million in 2007. The Astros can buy out the 07 deal for 7 million. By playing this season and delaying his retirement announcement until the Astros decline the option, Bagwell guarantees himself 24 million. If he retires now, he leaves all that money on the table. As a Cub fan I REALLY appreciate his sticking around. It REALLY warms my heart.

Soriano would command more in trade (and it isn’t even close) because he is worth more (IMO, it isn’t even close). Cash certainly would be a sticking point but unless the Cubs were sending salary their way (and they would have little interest in Walker) they would certainly pass 1-2M back to us.

Sully, he sits against his fair share of lefties but I also have mentioned (repeatedly) some of the other reasons he doesn't play as much as Soriano (PR, injuries and even D).

I hear that. I'm pretty sure I find the difference greater that either of you but I'm just interested in finding out what that price is.

23% of walker's AB's were against lefties, which is slightly higher than soriano's. i don't see much of a difference. stats may lie, but they aren't the liars that eyes are. The Cubs, as a team last year, faced lefties 28.4% of the time (Walker faced only 22.9% lefties). The Rangers last year faced lefties only 23.8% of the time (Soriano faced about the same—22% lefties). (Walker has batted against even fewer lefties (21.4%) over the past three years. Soriano has batted against lefties 29.2% of the time during that three-year span.) There appear to be some statistical trends over time. Walker gets taken out of the line up against lefties because, over the last three years (and at least four), he doesn't hit them as well as he does lefties (and I'd bet that he usually doesn't hit against the toughest lefties). If the current trends continue Walker will bat against fewer lefties than Soriano (and, IMO, the lefties he bats against will be the “weaker” lefties). If the current trends continue Walker will continue to hit against righties and fewer lefties thus increasing his BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. vs. what he would have done had he faced his team’s % of lefties. If the current trends continue Soriano will play against just about anyone (because he isn't replaced by managers for PH, PR or defensive subs) and frequently lead his league in innings at 2B thus giving you more value.

We certainly agree there.

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close. Metrics like Runs Created include SB, and Walker still tops Soriano as a rate. You can't punish Walker for getting leg-whipped by Carlos Lee, or for the incompetency of managers. Walker's "metrics" as a "rate" recieve a bump by not having to bat against lefties. Also, Walker hasn't played in 150 games more than 2X in his career (8 full seasons). Soriano's career is shorter but he has 4/5 years over 150. Regardless of why that happens it has happened with 5 different managers.

I'd bet they'd rather move Soriano than Vidro just because of the circumstances. That doesn't make sense considering they just traded for Soriano. They gave up Wilkerson and Sledge to get him. That's a good bit of value. I don't see them "giving" him away. At question here is what would Washington rather do (not the Cubs or the other teams in the league). They can keep a player that forces you to trade another player or trade the player that is forcing you to make the trade. Neither situation is pretty but I'm thinking they would prefer the guy that doesn't need to be coddled. I thought I had suggested he was going to be given away by offering what I did.

This may be true if things like speed and actually being on the field didn't matter. Walker's managers DO PH (remember he's lefty only), PR (he's 2/6 in SB in the last 3 years) and sub for him on defense (while Soriano's mgrs leave him in). And Walker gets hurt while Soriano doesn't. What you get then are the subs totals added to Walker's. That and the kind of difference that 30SB in 32 attemps can make means this isn't even close.

I'd bet they'd rather move Soriano than Vidro just because of the circumstances.

I value what Soriano does offensively greatly. He's got a wiry non-Oakland/Moneyball/B12 frame and uses that and his bat speed to generate big power. Ironically, I think this is the next “moneyball”—guys that have wiry frames that are unlikely to be busted using roids (DLee falls into this category as well). Soriano also has plus, plus speed and knows what to do with it. And if the objective of offense is scoring and driving in runs then he fulfills that objective. Offensively the addition of Soriano would add another bat to the trio of Lee, Ramirez and Barrett (each the best at his position in the NL in ’05). The Q’s are with his defense. Having DLee around would help some but the Cubs also brought on Ramirez and worked with him before they had Lee. ARam turned the page after about two weeks of coaching. Perhaps Soriano has issues the Cubs coaching staff can work with or perhaps not. Either way I think Soriano’s poor defensive reputation is a tad much given his numbers. Soriano’s range seems fine (if not spectacular). What has been spectacular is the amount of innings Soriano has put up in the last five years. When he is healthy enough to start (often) his managers leave him in there—they don’t take him out for a defensive replacement. This also has “moneyball” implications—you get more for your money than what you would get if you paid a guy who played 130-140 games per year (or was short on innings because he was being PH or PR for). I think a lot of Soriano and so does the league (given what he’s been traded for). The heat might be under Washington to avoid a mess of their own making so, if Soriano can be had for a decent deal, I’m willing to deal. A decent deal would not include Pie or, IMO, Hill or Guzman. I’d try a package around Williams, Marshall, Patterson or Murton. I’d consider Wuertz as well.

Do you mean to say that Hendry has picked up a crucial piece of the puzzle for the offense (such as Ramirez, Lee or Barrett)? I agree.

That would be it.

Sickles doesn't have the connections that the BA guys do (mostly by the nature of being BA guys) so he is a sabre guy more by default. This has forced him into some errors such as stating a particular hard throwing SS was moved to 2B because he lacked the arm... He also doesn't get the buzz of a guy that a team really likes after rookie ball... That said he's not like that topprospect site that, by and large, just parroted what they heard from sources like BA and Sickles.

If Z, Prior and Wood are healthy this team can win a lot more than 90 games (even if Wood is not quite Wood): *Very few teams have 2 true Aces (Z and Prior) and add a healthy (but recovering) Wood plus Maddux and Williams is plenty of starting pitching. The Pen is solid at worst (and very deep). *The offense has three players who are either the best or second best in the NL (Lee, Ramirez and Barrett). The offense has a leadoff hitter who scored 13 more runs than all of our leadoff guys did last year (and he had a "bad" year).