Scotti

Just getting caught up on the thread... the answer is Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs and Samardzija agreed to a ten million dollar deal for his first contract. Selig canned that and the Cubs and Samardzija settled on an overslot deal with a "promise" from the Cubs to revisit the deal in the future (when the draft restrictions did not apply). Since signings go through MLB before the press gets a hold of them there is really no telling how many signings get rebuffed. Some teams don't really need the Comish's help with anything so they bend the draft limit "rules" that MLB puts out. Some teams need a favor or two (Selig got the Mesa deal done for the Ricketts family) and this means that they are more likely to tow the line.

Any guy who hits .315 (great) is going to hit .290 (good but not great) during a spell or two. This isn't a big deal. Where he ends up on the year is. Thus far he's doing very well given his age/experience, skill set, etc. Lee hit .330/.399/.420/.820 as an 18-year old in Boise during his first year. He's right around those numbers now. There's no reason to think that what he's doing isn't real. Speedy left-handed hitters have high BABIP's. The five keys for having high BABIP's are 1) don't hit lots of HR 2) do hit lots of line drives 3) be very fast 4) bat left-handed 5) bunt for base hits. He has the fivefecta. Here are some guys on the all-time top 10 BABIP list: Ty Cobb, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Tris Speaker... All five fit the same bill of goods. When you start the year hitting .451 you are going to see a decline--even if that decline is .307 and .312 in the next two months respectively. We can only wish that Vitters had that kind of decline to worry about. In reality the "decline" you refer to is a .269 mark last month. If .269 is his low water mark then you don't have to worry about him. What 20-year old SS doesn't have "cleaning up" to do? Seriously. The guy is .961 this year--he's made strides every year. .961 is more than respectable for a 20-year old SS with tools out the wazoo. Just last year there was a former pro-scout that followed him for several games and did a write up on him (can't miss it--it's the third item to show up when you do a Google search of Hak-Ju Lee). His assessment? Plus, plus speed: "Here's where Lee is going to make an impact on a team and where the Reyes comparisons begin. Lee is not Jose Reyes all-around. He doesn't have that type of pop in his bat. He does, however, have comparable speed and causes the same type of mayhem on the basepaths. Lee has 7 or perhaps even 8 speed on the 2-8 scouting scale and he runs the bases exceptionally well for a player his age. He gets good jumps and showed very good instincts going from first to third." Basing a guy's speed on either his overall SB or SB% doesn't give you a true picture (at any level). I think Szczur has plus speed but his ratio in college wasn't so hot. Looks really good in the pros though. Does this mean he got faster? I don't think so. Shawon Dunston was very fast. But after stealing 58 in his second pro year he only stole 20 (and was caught 11 times) in his third year. Does this mean that he got slower? No, despite his excellent speed, Shawon Dunston just wasn't a great base-stealer (his mlb avg was 20-8 until he hurt his back). Lee has more than a chance to be a MLB, he has a chance to be a star. The guys rated top ten, top twenty should be guys who can become stars. I mentioned Furcal as a good comp for his tool set (Lee is much bigger and bats left-handed but both have similar tools). Furcal hit .322/.392/.389/.781 as a 21-year old in A/A+ with a fielding % of .932 (Furcal only hit .293/.343/.375/.718 at A+). For that he was ranked #8 overall by BA. Right now Lee is 20 (all year) at A+ and hitting .315/.383/.431/.815 with a fielding percentage of .961. While Furcal had more SB he also played his levels at two years older than Lee. The majority of top ranked prospects don't pan out the way folks expect but I see no reason to shy away from giving a SS with Lee's skill set and production a top ranking.

Well good. Then he's signed! With phrases like "right now" and "after the deadline." If you ended discussions, those aren't the words you'd use. If you've signed but can't talk about it until August 15th, you might say something like that. My guess would be that he is hedging his bet until the league approves. Sounds like the Cubs are going to try to get an awful lot of signings through the Comish's office. He might balk at a few.

Bold Mine Not only is Lee a plus, plus runner but he also bats left-handed, is a ground-ball hitter and drops down bunts for hits. All of those metrics add to his ability to hit for a high BABIP.

I'm still not convinced on Lee. He has made a major step forward, but thanks to his strikeout binge lately he has an .843 OPS on the season with a .393 BABIP. His speed should help give him an increased BABIP, but probably not that high. I'd put him as the best prospect from the Garza trade at this point and I think he will have a decent major league career especially if his defense becomes less erratic. I'm just don't know yet if he'll be a star. I think he's an Erik Aybar type who has the chance to become an Orlando Cabrera type in the long term....Probably my favorite prospect from the Garza trade, but in the end right now and for the foreseeable future he's simply prospecting for an MLB career. For me Lee is Rafael Furcal with better power at a similar age... Top runner, hits for average, plus range and a very strong arm. I'm not sure what isn't to like. His fielding percentage has improved to .961 this year. He walks. His K's are right around his career averages (and a byproduct of taking pitches). Maybe he's streaky but, hey, a young Furcal was streaky as well. Given his tools (plus arm, plus glove, plus, plus speed and plus bat), position, production and age (he's 20 all year--he'll be 21 all next year at AA/AAA) I have no problem seeing him as a top ten guy. Given his size/age he might grow out of his plus, plus speed but it'll still be plus as with all the other tools (and potentially more power in that case). I just don't see a downside.

For his pro career Beeler has 89 IP and 11 (eleven!) walks. Stunning.

I'd much rather have McNutt provided he's healthy. Before the collision/injury/whatever this year he had 8 starts at AA with a 2.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 0.26 HR/9, 2.08 BB/9, 5.71 K/9 and a 1:2.75 BB:K ratio. For his career he's been very low mileage, quick through the minors, quick learner.

They do more than just put on weight at "Colvin Camp." Dempster wasn't there to add weight--he was there to stay/get conditioned. My understanding is that, while there is a general program (like a P90X for baseball), each guy has his own program suited to what his specific needs are (upper body weight, lower body weight, conditioning, strength, stamina, explosiveness, pitchers, position players, etc.). My guess is that Golden will get an invite if he works within certain parameters this season--remember, until the new Mesa facilities open up, they are limited on space and even after that they'll still only want guys who they believe will give full effort. If they see hustle/effort my guess is that he gets invited. If they don't see it then he would just be wasting space and ruining the great culture that they have created. I'd love to see the results for guys like Golden and, even more so, Vogelbach. Vogelbach could add 10-15 pounds of muscle and drop 25-30 pounds of fat on that frame (10-20 pound drop but a huge transformation is physique).

Interesting to see the "Camp Colvin" to "Colvin Camp Program" switch. Camp Colvin always did sound a little silly. * This was Tim Wilken on Darvill before the season: "He won't come quickly. He's four years away," Wilken said. "But wait until you see what he can become." Big on Geiger (who is tearing up Mesa) before the season as well.

I'm willing to make this the standard custom, too. It just so happens that I am a pimp but more so in the specialty categories (trannies, amputees and the like)... Business really picks up around Halloween. (Apologies in advance to any mods who may be trannies or the like).

Maybe you could start a campaign to become a mod. It worked for O_O. :D I think I'll stick to being critical of mods posts and see if that gets me anywhere...

even if your sarcasm detector is completely broken, it's safe to assume that an NSBB moderator is not going to be a meatball who thinks that aramis is lazy and zambrano is one of those fiery latins. That's sarcasm, right? I know Tim is about as Pro-Cub as I am but I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't hold that kind of standard to be a moderator. "I'm sorry, you think Ramirez is lazy? You're fired." Regardless, I would have had to have opened Laura's profile to even know that she is a moderator. I don't even open my own profile. Hey, maybe I'm a mod! If you have a problem with my "lack of a sarcasm detector" PM me. Or create a new thread "Why Does Scotti Suck So Much?" Hint, mods have green names. Thanks for that. Apparently I'm not a mod...

I wanted Heyward in that draft but, given that I had never seen either play, I feel it is fine to defer to a guy like Tim Wilken who knows a whole lot more than I do about drafting prospects. The book is not closed on that draft. Heyward should be a good player but he's struggled this year (.233). In some ways Wieters has regressed. Way too soon to call this draft.

even if your sarcasm detector is completely broken, it's safe to assume that an NSBB moderator is not going to be a meatball who thinks that aramis is lazy and zambrano is one of those fiery latins. That's sarcasm, right? I know Tim is about as Pro-Cub as I am but I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't hold that kind of standard to be a moderator. "I'm sorry, you think Ramirez is lazy? You're fired." Regardless, I would have had to have opened Laura's profile to even know that she is a moderator. I don't even open my own profile. Hey, maybe I'm a mod! If you have a problem with my "lack of a sarcasm detector" PM me. Or create a new thread "Why Does Scotti Suck So Much?"

Because Aramis chooses to hit HR that benefit him and not the Cubs? Because you don't know the definition of sarcasm/sarcastic... You really believe that she was being serious??? Generally people who are being sarcastic don't go to the trouble of linking a web page to their post that agrees with their post (albeit in a non-sarcastic way). I mean, was the blogger/poster/"contact" being sarcastic? Must we assume so because the point of view is so bizarre? If we were to assume that every bizarre post on even just NSBB were "sarcasm" then NSBB would be even too sarcastic for me. My specialty.

Because Aramis chooses to hit HR that benefit him and not the Cubs? Because you don't know the definition of sarcasm/sarcastic... You really believe that she was being serious??? Although that was a nice little rant you went on there... FYI the "post of the year" comment...also sarcasm FYI, so was me thanking my grandpappy--he never lifter a finger to help me.

On the actual topic of Aramis being snubbed... The ASG has been about offense for decades. Ramirez has put up better numbers so, in that sense, he was snubbed. The ASG is also about the fact that the managers pick the subs AND the fact that there are a limited number of slots so, in that sense, there are always snubs. Each year there are usually guys who put up much better numbers than Aramis has thus far who get left off because PIT or KC needs a guy on the team. So, IMO, while it may be a snub, it is no big deal.

I couldn't have done it without my agent, my mother, my grandpappy...

Because Aramis chooses to hit HR that benefit him and not the Cubs?

Rimshot

Mesa, with a callup to Boise in the last week or so of the season if he performs well enough. Agreed. If he were to go lights out in Mesa for a couple weeks my guess is they would promote him to Boise sooner.

There are a lot of strange theories out there on the Interwebs but, whoa Nelly, this one takes the cake! Any HR benefits any hitter--always. Sluggers get paid to slug. No slugger can choose when he will hit a HR and certainly no one would choose NOT to hit a HR when it is beneficial to his team. If a hitter were to be known as a "clutch hitter" (and Ramirez actually IS known as an RBI guy) then he makes MORE money. OK, a BLOGGER quotes a POSTER to his site who theoretically has "A CONTACT WITH ACCESS" and this is now fact? No! This is LESS than RUMOR--at least you can trace a rumor to its source. Here there is only a poster who has "a contact." Regardless, even the blogger/poster/"contact" didn't call this anything like a "Latino Uprising." That was all you (so now this is poster/blogger/poster/"contact"). AKA, useless. What did blogger/poster/"contact" actually say? That Ramirez "...wouldn’t let them(sic) team haze Castro..." Hell, I'm lily white and, were I on the team, I wouldn't let them haze Castro either. Sure, the guy is selfishly all about himself and yet he injures himself on purpose because this is actually good for him. Or maybe poster/blogger/poster/"contact" don't really know what is going on and are playing the telephone game: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_whispers Well, I read a Blogger who has a Frequent Poster who knows a Supposed Contact who sat near them in a Bar and, Privately, they disagree with you.

Do we know as far as current players, what is Goldens ceiling? Any fair comparisons this early? When I have limited info, I go by the name, and Reggie Golden sounds like a speedy leadoff hitter, which I guess isn't the case. Then again, until recently, I thought that Freddie Freeman was black, so that system is quite flawed. Raw player. Very strong. Swing (from video) reminds me of Glen Allen Hill (Craig will now forever call him Reg Golden Hill). Good speed but he's had problems with his hamstrings and may not keep it as he grows. Golden didn't attend a premiere program and, like Hill, he's reportedly very raw (Hill struggled for a long time in the minors and bumbled through the majors basically until he was traded to the Cubs).

jung and francescon followed and were each terrible... peoria is down 15-4 in the 5th inning. When all is said and done, Simpson might end up a bigger waste of a 1st round pick than Mark Pawalek. Rhee, on the other hand tossed a 7 inning complete game shutout with 6 K 1 BB 2 H. Just thought I'd note the irony here (and not just in this post but the entire thread). Rhee was a good prospect who got injured and has needed more than two years to recover and, oh boy, "on the other hand" folks get jazzed because he had a good start. Simpson is a good prospect who is struggling through what should be considered his recovery year and somehow he's going to be a bust. My son did a double dip mono in grade school. Much like Simpson he got sick, tried to recover too quickly and then was bedridden for nearly two months. Mono in itself can be bad but the double dip is nasty stuff. Clinically the second go around is still the first case but it has had time to dig in deep while the patient it pushing him/herself too hard (and lowering their immunity). By Simpson's account he started the year still 8 pounds under his playing weight (175). From the Cubs standpoint, they would have had him adding at least 10 pounds in the off-season so he started the season at least 18 pounds under what he should have been starting at. The guy just isn't the same guy we drafted nor is he the guy that he should have been at this point. That doesn't mean that he won't be. He just needs to add to his stamina and add weight. The stamina you add by pitching and the weight you add in the off-season. To add to the irony, Simpson, like Rhee, isn't expected to be a flame thrower so having him learn to pitch without his best and sharpest stuff is, IMO, a good thing. Both guys are more four pitch, command and control guys than guys who tickle the gun. As long as he isn't doing physical harm then having him get through a full season (and the requisite first year dead arm periods) is all to the plus.

With a player that young (and talented) the difficulties are with his fine motor skills which are a result of less practice (older players generally = more practice = more defined neural pathways). If this theory is true then you would, observationally, see Great! plays followed by What The Heck? plays. This is what we see with Castro. He is making great plays and muffing some "easy" ones (as well as attempting some not so easy ones that more practiced SS would not attempt). Malcom Gladwell wrote about neural pathways in Outliers. The actual issue with Castro's defense is will he learn to position hitters better? All the quickness in the world (and SS is about quickness more so than speed) will not help you if you are playing a pull hitter up the middle. Interestingly, it took Ozzie Smith two years to learn better possitioning (more plays per 9 IN) while his fielding percentage was consistantly in the .960-.970 range throughout his MLB career (his last year in the minors, as a 22 y/o, it was .943). So, IMO, this is NOT about focus but, rather, about practice, practice, practice. Practicing at game speed (not casually) will make playing in games second nature (because of the more defined neural pathways). This means a player will NOT need to focus during games but, rather, just let his instincts take over. This is why SS with more playing time make fewer errors. They have done it more in practice. I'm not really concerned on this point (and I believe that possitioning will come as well).