craig

"Markey, Skulina, Clark, Miller, Mekkes, etc have taken more seriously on this board than Kellogg" Kellogg is a much better prospect than Markey, Skulina, or Tseng. They have failed, he hasn't. Until he fails, he's a prospect, in my book. But certainly Tseng and Jokish are illustrations that having a resume of Kellogg-esque numbers in the Midwest League is little proof that a guy will be successful at higher levels. I'll keep an eye on Kellogg as long as he's having success; for a guy with minus-velocity I'll probably give up pretty quick if/when he fails. Here's Kellogg's resume: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=ryan-kellogg Not sure how exciting 3.15, 3.76, and 3.60 ERA's are in college, with K/9 of 5-6-7.

I'd sure put Clifton ahead. Plus curve, plus results, plus K-rate, plus velocity, more success in higher league at younger age.

I think Jokisch is a good comp. Kellogg is 22 with 3.03 ERA in Midwest; Jokish had a 2.94 ERA as a 21-year-old in same league, with similarly good K/BB splits. Jokisch than followed that up with a 2.91 ERA in AA at age 22. So, in terms of accomplishments, Jokisch and Kellogg basically have identical years in Midwest League, although Jokisch was a little younger and confirmed with another effective year in AA at the age Kellogg is doing it in A. So if we're looking at accomplishments and performance, Kellogg doesn't look better. I thought mention of touching 90 was a little more common with Jolisch than what we've heard from Kellogg, but that's probably mostly because we don't get many reports on low-velocity college guys. That Jokisch didn't make it doesn't mean that Kellogg won't. Sometimes performance guys are able to carry it up the ladder. Hendricks is the exception not the norm, of course; but perhaps when a guy without velocity somehow keeps getting guys out, eventually we come to realize that there is reason. So long as Kellogg can perform effectively, I'll keep an open mind that he might have a chance to be effective. Good luck to him. Hopefully the Cubs can somehow help him add a little good velocity before it's all said and done. If the change is really good (see Hendricks), and the location is consistently masterful (again see Hendricks), you can have good results even without much velocity. But the emphasis on velocity sure helps to explain why so many pitchers took steroids. Temptation has to be pretty strong.

Bailey Clark is in Durham completing his fall semester at Duke. Semester started in late August. Thanks very much! That's good to hear. Way better to have him shutting down because he's a smart, self-motivated guy who wants to complete his degree rather than because he's got a sore shoulder!

I'm a little concerned that de la Cruz had 5 excellent starts after 3 months of rest/rehab, but then his last 3 were blah/bad. Maybe just the normal ups and downs hot-cold that players go through over a season. But I'm a little nervous that after resting for months his bad arm felt OK for a while, but maybe it didn't take long for it to start not being so good again. Paranoid, paranoid.....

Heh heh, 39K/21IP, that's a good way to wrap up a season. I wonder what kind of variants he has on his curve. A lot of guys will have the big, slow curve, maybe as a 2-strike chase pitch; but also have a much smaller curve that they can more consistently throw for strikes, even if it's more of a grounball pitch than a big K pitch. In this video from last night, his curve looks pretty big; can't imagine he can throw those for strikes real consistently, especially if guys could control themselves and just not swing. Hopefully he's got or will develop the smaller throw-for-strikes variant.

Cease listed for Eugene tonight, I wonder if he'll really go, or if they'll save him for playoff start. It's all about development, so probably no reason to hold him back. But perhaps they think the playoff pressure/excitement is almost better development experience, who knows. Nice finale for Kellogg. Ends 107/26 K/BB, that's a good >4:1 ratio. Ends 3.03 ERA, that's nice too. 8 HR's is kinda high, that's going to be an issue for him. Only 2 HR second half, 52K/9BB/2HR second half is very nice. Kellogg is a great example of why pitchers would have liked to dabble in steroids in years past. If he had his stats and control, but suddenly added solid velocity, he'd be a very popular prospect. Eloy back today, 0-3.

Yup, thanks a ton Cal for getting all of these started. Sad to see the minor-league season end. Hopefully the playoffs are fun. had a lot of good developments this season. Thanks also Tom for a lot of input and discussion.

Tyson Miller, who turned 21 at end of July, is now up over 130 innings between college and pro, but the Cubs hadn't shut him down as of Monday. By contrast, Bailey Clark, who's 8 months older, got shut down at 71 innings on Aug 10. Has anybody heard anything regarding Clark's situation? Each guy is unique, I'm sure But having pitched 60 fewer innings than Miller, I'm not sure Clark was just shut down merely because of innings workload. So, I wonder if he had an injury of some sort, and if so what and how severe? I'm actually rather surprised they've let Miller rack up so many innings.

I wonder how fast Paulino is, actually. I've got the impression that he's got a reputation for throwing reasonably hard, but I wonder how true that is. In a couple of the strikeout videos I saw on milb.com, he didn't look notably fast by my eye-ball look, but granted that isn't very precise. And maybe I was expecting too much. He looked like he might be largely a breaking-ball guy who mixes in some sinking/movement fastballs. Obviously a lefty who can throw strikes, throw with movement/sink, and throw a good breaking ball doesn't need to be a power guy. Not that many lefties, even the good ones, who are overpoweringly fast. Definitely a significant prospect. I'll be very interested to read the scouting reports on him this winter, including their velocity writeup. I'm kind of guessing he's probably a guy who's touched 94-95, who normally works in the 87-92 range with his fastball, whose fastball is fast enough to be a player but not fast enough to be his signature.

Last starts of the regular season for these guys now. Monday is last day, I think, for the full season guys. Eugene, SB and Myrtle will all be playoffs, right? Myrtle included? Tennessee should send Hedge back to Myrtle for the playoffs. Clifton-Morrison-Hedges would be a pretty tough sequence.

Is that still the case, or as much so as before? I wonder if he hasn't smoothed that out some. Seemed the last video of him that I saw, his delivery looked smoother and more normal. And the guy's only 21, so if there's something with his delivery it's not inconceivable that the Cubs will work with him on that and make some improvements.

Given the injury risk and given some issues with his control and stuff, naturally it's less than probable that Clifton will end up being an excellent big-league rotation guy. He doesn't have a strong history for having good control. The curve is a very hard pitch to control, so not sure whether he'll ever be able to become a consistent strike-thrower. Big-league hitters do a better job of hitting curves, of laying off of non-strike curves, of spoiling 2-strike curves, and of making curveballers pay when they do hang a few. Clifton's fastball seems to be good but isn't great, I don't think. And I'm not sure what he has as fall-back on days when the curve is off. So, lots of reasons to think he might not succeed. Still, I can't help but be really interested in a guy with a put-away curve like that, combined with what I think is a pretty good fastball. The kind of K/HR numbers he's put up this year at age 20/21 are pretty impressive for a guy his age. He'll still be 21 for over a month at AA next year, so he's still got time to continue to refine his game. I wonder what the scouting reports on him will say this offseason. An oddity is that his arm slot looks like it might be good versus righties. But his season splits actually show better results versus lefties. A lot of curveballers get killed by lefty hitters, so if he doesn't have problems with lefties, I think that's actually a very good sign. I'm pretty interested. Obviously easily in our top-10 list, possibly top 5-7.

5K/0BB in 2 innings for Daury Torrez. He's had a very good second half. Has some pretty sharp splits, good arm, low slot, tough on righties. Not so tough on lefties, apparently. Cease 8K/4BB in 5 innings. 2 hits. Guy is hard to hit, K's galore. Last 4 starts, 29K/10BB/6H/16IP.

Aach. That's terrible. Sad, that is, to realize that things are starting to shut down.

That's a great point. I think a lot of kinda average guys will put up good numbers in front of this great defense. An average pitcher who doesn't need to get stretched too deep because there's a strong pen behind him, who has great defense, and who pitched in front of a good offense can start a lot of games that the team will win. If they bring back Chapman, and Rondon comes back healthy and like his normal self, and Edwards becomes a consistent guy, they could end up with a really good bullpen.

They won't outpace the revenues the Cubs will be generating in that time span thanks to improved ticket sales, gains from deep playoff runs and likely a WS or two, improved merch and concessions, and then there's the monster media rights deal/s coming at the end of the decade. Hell, in media rights money alone they might come out ahead. That's good, and I'll hope/trust that you're right. Still, I'm not sure. There are going to be some massive salary jumps as Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras go through arb, and assuming Arrieta resigns. It is going to require some massive, massive increases in revenue to outpace the increase in costs. They really wanted Heyward. By account, getting him was possible because management "got creative", and they discussed the thin FA market this winter, almost as if they understood themselves to be "spending ahead" and using this winter's discretionary spending money ahead of time. So, I don't think they've got a big stash of saved-up discretionary cash now, as might have been true entering the lester derby. Perhaps this summer has been so unbelievably good from the start that merchandizing revenue is greatly exceeding what they could have objectively/conservatively assumed last November. So perhaps revenue will be at or beyond their most optimistic projections, and they'll have a much bigger stash of discretionary money this winter than they could have expected following the Heyward signing. I'd be pleased if the Cubs had the cash to retain both Chapman and Fowler. Again, I don't know their finances, so maybe that's beyond their means. *But the pen would look totally different without Chapman, *and if he goes they're still going to need to plow resources into getting other help there. *The drop off from Fowler to Almora/Szczur offensively might be pretty substantial, too. So if $$ permitted, I'd be pretty pleased to extend Fowler for 2-3 years.

I don't anticipate Cubs being able to bundle prospects for big-tickets for budget reasons. Given the crazy salary inflation existing Cubs will experience over the next 5 years, I don't think imagine we'll be seeing many if any big-salary guys added from the outside. For this winter, I'm just hoping we can retain one or both of Chapman and Fowler.

Yeah, the K-rate for Eloy has really been a great story. It's improved dramatically since April and May, and has almost gotten better and better month by month. What pre-season scouting suggested might be a serious problem (there was talk about "holes" and "long swing"), now seems like a major asset. There have been so many clips of him. Just eye-ball, it looks like he's got a really good stance and swing, looks like very good balance and plate coverage. Seems to use all fields very well and cover the outside half very well. Obviously the clips are all of successful swings. So perhaps those are all the "guess right" pitches; maybe anything in the low-inside quadrant kills him, and maybe there are lots of "guess wrong" pitches where he looks way out of balance, beats me. But man just by the video-clip eye-ball test, his swing look really practical and nice. What a great trajectory this season has had for him. The HR-output has probably come in some spurts, as often happens with HR guys. But overall his season has been uncommonly consistent, not a lot of cold spells.

Many of the Mexicans are performing well relative to the DSL/ASL. My question is whether that will translate up the chain. They may be much more practiced, since I'm guessing they've actually played a lot of baseball games, whereas a lot of Dominicans have played very little. So they may have less capacity to improve. (Somewhat like how a college guy can often do well in the ASL because he's more practiced/polished than the teenagers, who have a lot more improvement left to make.)

Thanks. That's not a nit-pick that's a meaningful difference. So, much appreciated! Agree with your bottom-line.

I don't expect much from Almora offensively. And if he becomes the Cubs primary CF next year, I'm not sure I won't quickly be wishing he wasn't, and viewing him as a real liability in any effort to have a relentless lineup offensively. But, I do have hopes, if not expectations, that he still has improvement left. 1. His HR-power may improve some. Lots of guys hit somewhat more HR at 24-28 than they do at 22. It's not like it would take some radical change in his profile for him to end up hitting 10-12 HR per season. Over the course of a 500-AB primary-starter season, an extra 5 HR is worth 10 points in BA, 10 points in OBP, and 50 points in slugging, simplistically. Does it require some inconceivable radical improvement for him to improve from a 6-HR guy to an 11-HR guy? That might impact whether he could be a .725-OPS guy (not awful for a premium CFer) versus a .675 guy (pretty lousy even for a high-end CFer.) 2. Most guys lose a lot of OPS upon going from AAA to the great-pitching-great-defense majors. But I have a notion that contact hitters may not lose as much. If you can hit the ball regardless and put it in play, and you're living on BABIP, a low-K guy may not suffer as badly, or be exposed as badly by the superior ability of major-leaguers. 3. I think it's reasonable that an intelligent, hard-working, great-makeup guy in the context of a top-end development and teaching team might be able to adjust and adapt and improve a little better than elsewhere. I almost think I should *expect* improvement these days to be a little better than with guys in previous Cub eras. Not sure how much he has to improve. Had a .712 OPS with Cubs. Personally, I think that would have gone down, down, down if he'd stayed up. But, that's just me. With his defense, if he could actually sustain that level of .712 OPS, or improve it just modestly, I don't think a .720-.735-OPS Almora would necessarily be a liability player.

Thanks, Tom, that "92-as-pitcher" is pretty interesting. That's a good arm. *I wonder how he'd been balancing pitching versus in fielding? *I wonder if there's any chance some teams were looking at him as a pitcher, and didn't appreciate his value as a position guy? I have two questions with the Mexicans. 1. I wonder how teams evaluate. A Mexican signing for $800, kid gets only $400, and Cubs get taxed at only $400. Does a team scout/value him as equal to a $400 Dominican, or equal to an $800 Dominican, or something somewhere in between? (Obviously there is tons of guesswork pre-signing; given how Paredes has made contact, maybe he'd get $2.5 million now, if back on the market..... Maybe all of our Mexicans would get double or triple what we paid for them if available now....) 2. The other major question is how development/improvement/projection will go. It's great to have nice relative-to-age stats in the DSL and ASL. But most teens we expect to improve dramatically over time, both physically and skills-wise. The appeal is that their perceived potential ceiling is assumed to be so much higher than their present. With the Mexican kids, I wonder if they might be closer to their ceilings, both physically and skills-wise, than is true for most teen pros; so that they might not have as much improvement capacity? Whether or not the Mexican kids can further elevate their games a lot isn't clear, but will determine whether they'll be able to keep up with all the improvements in competition they'll need to handle to remain good right up the majors.

Hedges finally has a very bad day. Moreno finally allows a HR.

1. He'll rank higher on "lists" than on stats. .745 OPS, >20% K-rate, 3 HR, those stats are a bit above average. It's the non-statistical scouting tools and the projection that stand out better, I think. 2. You make lists yourself. Nothing wrong with lists. But some are better than others, duh. No intelligent list will ignore stats. Just like no intelligent list will ignore age or, if information permits, some scouting. The more input the better, and the more intelligent the list will be. (For example, Katoh had some list with Amora ranked super high; I think that list was missing something somehow, and had him too high.) 3. We know the scouting on DJ is that his defense is really good, and the tools eval project that it should stay truly good. Lots of short-season middle guys won't be middle guys in the majors, or won't be good middle-defenders. But Wilson very much projects to be a true CFer, and a very good one, perhaps even relative to the high standard of big-league CF defense. It's significantly the scouting input on his defense/speed/arm that makes me as hopeful about him as I am, even though I don't really have stats to prove how his defense compares to some other short-season guy playing CF who might not at all project to actually end up playing good CF defense. 4. Majors are years away, at best, for Wilson, if he develops favorably. Hard to imagine the big-league landscape. But, just for fun: it is conceivable that Fowler will get resigned. If so, if Wilson percolates up the chain and develops beautifully, his graduation might conceivably sync semi-well with Folwer's next contract ending? It's also conceivable that Almora might be a significant player in the Cubs CF landscape at a time when Wilson might theoretically graduate. Wilson is lefty, Almora is righty. There could hypothetically be some "fit" there, too. Maybe a 3rd hypothetical might be Cubs covering CF for at least a while with some Heyward, perhaps supplemented with some Almora. Perhaps if Wilson was to develop beautifully, he might be able to merge into that landscape somehow, too. Anyway, hope the kid develops into a tremendous center fielder and baserunner, and develops into a good hitter as well.