craig

I'd forgotten about Rhee. Yesterday when Tim was mentioning Tennessee rotation not being as good as usual, I was thinking Whitenack was about the only A-ball guy who might end up both being a good major leaguer and spending time at Tenn this year. Obvoiusly if Struck is going to end up a good major leaguer, there's probably also a good chance that would involve him pitching well this summer and getting promoted to AA as ;well, although I'm not sure he's going to ever be a good major leaguer that we look back and say "and struck was on that 2011 AA staff, too...") But I'd forgotten Rhee, because I haven't been a big believer since the surgery. But I know some of the posters have been pretty strong Rhee believers (I hope for good reason.) If indeed his arm is recovered enough so that he's going to be a winning major leaguer, then his arm will probably be recovered enough that he'll pitch his way out of Daytona at some point this summer. So if years out Rhee is a good major leaguer and we are looking back at the 2011 Tennessee staff, I suspect we'll include Rhee's name on the 2011 staff. If he isn't healthy enough and good enough to pitch himself out of Daytona this summer, then he'll probably never be healthy enough and good enough to be a good major leaguer either. Would sure be cool if he emerged as a value prospect.

Cal or anybody else, What do we know about Loosen from his draft reports? Was he a slot guy or an overslot with potential and a supposedly good arm? Just curious whether he might be serious, or just a college pitcher taking advantage of teenagers. Cal, do you recall seeing Austin Reed's name in any of Phil's reports? I'm assuming he's hurt or something?

Given how weak the AA bullpen has been, I'd think it won't be too long or too hard for him to get the promotion. I admit I was pretty surprised he returned to A. That said, the guy has been on an improvement trajectory, at least when we compare 2008 - 09/10 - now. Maybe the improvement from 09 to 10 wasn't that much (although his ERA did drop a bunch, while he was being promoted to Daytona, and his K-rate rose some too.) 2008: 29/35/59 walks/innings/K's 2009: 45/97/117 2010: 29/64/97 2011: 1/9/14 thus far Basically his walk rate has gone from horrific-bad-bad-good (thus far). It's too early to know if it's sustainable, but this could be the first year where his walk/inning ratio is much more favorable than 1/2, which is pretty bad even if way better than his rookie year. If he can get the walks down, or keep them down as he's done so far this month, then he's going to go places. Who knows, maybe he was challenged last year and this that he needed to reduce those walks to go to AA, and now he's finally able to do that?

..Rusin and Raley are okay, but neither one figures to be more than filler at the major league level at this point. I recognize there's still some chance for more than that (particularly for Raley), but nothing to get excited about when compared to the rotations that have gone through AA for us in the past..... You're correct about Rusin and Raley but ... The top 3 is amongst the better trios I can remember at AA for the Cubs. I don't know about that. Last year's rotation was better - Archer, McNutt, Dolis, Carpenter, Cashner and Cabrera all took part in the rotation at various times. 2009 ended with Cashner, Carpenter, Jackson & Mateo 2008 had Veal, Samardzija and Caridad (okay, this one was weaker!) 2007 had Veal, Hart & Gallagher (okay, this too) 2006 had Gallagher, Wells & Marmol 2005 had Ryu, Nolasco, Pinto, Hill, Marshall .... We've had some rotations go through there with much more talent than the current group. In december, I thought this was going to be one of the best, with McNutt, Archer, Cabrera, Dolis, Rusin, and Raley. Losing Archer was a factor, for sure. I was quite high on Rusin and Raley, given Rusin's super K/BB effectiveness numbers last year, given their draft/bonus status, and given how Raley was a sub-3.0 guy during his last few months at Daytona. I'd had both in my top-20, so see them being overmatched early and looking like they just don't have that much talent or velocity (I'd hoped Raley was still projecting into more...) has been pretty disappointing. Still, Tim, the lists you're giving are "having" or "ending". Many of those names weren't present all year. One of my top-20 guys who has looked great early is Whitenack, and if he and Raley/Rusin keep pitching like they have, he'll be in AA within the month. In future, you might look back and say "McNutt/Whitenack/Dolis/Cabrera, that 2011 staff might have been the most productive ever." Who knows, maybe we'll draft some fast-track polished college ace in the first round and he'll be in AA by the end of September, too. Not likely, but not impossible. Maybe Jackson will spend two months there, and end up getting healthy, righting his career, and becoming good. A problem/the problem as I see it is that Whitenack looks to be the only major talent who's in line. Last year Dolis, Archer, McNutt, Cabrera, and Rusin were all A-ball talents who graduated up to AA to enrich that staff that had Chen and Muschko starting in April. This year, it's hard to envision anybody but Whitenack being an A-ball talent who might jazz up the AA rotation. And, we don't really know how talented he actually is, either, maybe he's just gotten fluke lucky for a couple of games. Usually Tenn gets fed by successful Daytona guys, but with Wallach, Ebenger, Kurcz, Struck, not sure there are so many hot candidates there outside of Whitenack. Maybe I'm wrong and Struck will be good.

The box score shows Ha getting caught stealing twice and getting picked off. A CS and a pickoff were the same play, after getting picked he ran for 2nd and got thrown out The other CS may have been a hit-and-run or something, since Bour struck out on the same play. That kid can hit. I'm hoping he's not a terrible baserunner.

Silva starting to chalk up more K's. With Whitenack's great start, he's going to attract attention and scouting info is going to come out more and more. Obviously he's got an effective fastball, with plus-plus location (low BB, low hits) and movement (GO/AO, low hits). I wonder how his fastball velocity sits? Is that good too, or just average, or somewhat below? Obviously when a guy is throwing sinkers, you don't expect the same velocity as 4-seam power up-the-ladder guys. I guess I'm just kind of wondering whether he actually throws what he throws pretty hard, or whether it's all finesse/movement.

Az Phil has talked as if Flaherty was getting too big. But his picture here doesn't look the least bit too big. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/affiliates/index.jsp?c_id=chc Plus, he's been playing SS a lot. And while we know he's no rangy SS and won't play SS in the majors (at least, not much and not very well...), the fact that they are using him there at all implies to me that his physique and his defense aren't too far gone to be possible at 3B or possibly 2B. He's been a slow mover. Kind of odd, given that he seems to be intelligent and a student of hitting, and his father is a baseball coach, and he played 3 years of college. So I'd have guessed he should reach his potential sooner rather than later, compared to most prospects. But if he could sustain some serious numbers at Tennesse this year, maybe he'd still have a chance to become a meaningful prospect.

The two reds are key, IMO. I hadn't heard any reports that he is a plus defender in CF. Where did you get that from? If true, that's huge. I guess I'm wondering whether he really projects to be a plus defender in big-league CF, or is only "plus" relative to minor-league OFer liks Burgess and "Neifi" Perez? And just as we project 19/20-year olds to get bigger/stronger and perhaps add power, sometimes 19/20-year olds get bigger/stronger and slower too as they age, and become slower in CF. Anyway, I think it's a huge difference whether he's really a true and high-quality big-league CF prospect, or whether this is more like Colvin who played CF (and got good reports) back in A-ball. His arm, no question. The other Q, or course, is the power projection. The BA report new his height and age, but their scouts did not project much power for him, for whatever reason. So perhaps he's never going to have much HR power. That said, an 8-15 HR guy who could play a good CF and hit for high average could be terrific. CubsinNC saw Ha slumping and missing. But my take has always been that he was something of a natural contact guy. He only K'd 15% of his time last year as a teenager in full-season, and I think went extended stretches where he hardly K'd at all. So my take is that he's got that rare and innate gift of contact. This year he's got only 2 K's in 35 AB. Obviously with 2 K's and 0 walks in 35 AB, he's not taking a lot of pitches or working any counts. I assume it's pretty much see-it-and-hit-it. If he was swinging and missing at many strikes, or chasing and missing on many balls, I think it would be rare to go 35 AB and only twice fail to put the ball in play. I assume that with more scouting, and as pitchers get smarter, they may throw him fewer and fewer good fastball strikes, if he's never going to walk no matter what anyway. But the gift of being able to hit the ball doesn't come easily, so I'm pretty optimistic. I always say that HR is partly a function of strength but also a function of contact. He may eventually end up with an average HR output even if his innate power is below-average, simply based on the fact that he can hit the ball on the nose with unusually frequency. And as much as a I respect the projection skills and scouting evaluations of scouts, I still do have to imagine that a pure-hitting guy who's 6'1" and only 20 years old, that scouts can't be certain that he might not in future add enough muscle and adjust his stroke a bit to add some power. A .300-hitting CFer who could hit 15-20 HR's, that would be fantastic even if he did walk like a Neifi.

Nice to see excellent start for Dolis. This will be a repeat level spring for him, so maybe he's ready to take a step. He's still barely 23, but hasn't been pitching that long. He's been improving in steps. Maybe this year he'll be pretty good.

It wouldn't hurt him to have to face crafty AAA vets who will try to junk ball him to death. Agree. Better fastballs in AA. Better command and craftier junk in AAA. Personally I'd as soon leave these guys together. Maybe going up to spend time with Scales and LaHair and Thomas Diamond and JR Mathes could be a maturing factor or whatever. But I like the idea of having a bunch of future Cubs live together and play together and win together and build camaraderie at AA together. Jackson, Lemahieu, Vitters, Clevenger, McNutt, Cabrera, Dolis, there's a whole crowd of guys who could be pretty good long-term Cubs. I think having them stay together and come up together is a cool organizational idea. I'm curious to see how Rebel Ridling does. Like everybody there, he's off to a hot start,with 2 HR and 4 walks and a 1.1+ OPS. I recall having some mild hopes for him two years ago, but last year he wasn't that good. But he did come in late off the DL, I think? So perhaps it took a while to get back. Perhaps with a fresh season, he's ready to make a step forward? I was surprised that they used one of the limited Camp Colvin spots on him, since I'd assumed he was mostly an organizational guy. But maybe they think he's a bit of a prospect? He'll need a monster year, though, that's for sure. Anybody know if he's kind of a Soriano-scale defender at 1B, or if he's actually not that bad?

Interesting that he perceives "Campana" Na as having progressed. Not an effective outing for Kim, 7 hits in 3 innings. Interesting to get the info no Harman, I'd figured he'd be starting at daytona. That he's straight Loogy and he couldn't make a full-season squad probably isn't inspiring in terms of how good he (didn't) look in fall and spring. but I'm still hopeful. A month ago there was an article in which Wilken was optimistic about Geiger and Darvill, and of course Darvill was so highly projected that they brought him to Camp Colvin. Unfortunately from Phil's ST boxes and these early XST boxes, neither of those guys seems to have improved any. And Darvill seems like he makes an error every time he plays. Also kind of disappointing that a month after getting to camp, that Golden is still so fat. I'd have guessed that a month of hard work in the hot sun might have made a difference already.

Thanks, cal. I particularly like the Kim-Canseco comment. Canseco was a mammoth talent with the steroids, but he was a very gifted prospect anyway. So if Kim has some size and power potential, I'm thrilled. I think it's been a given that Jung had a bad arm for some time now. Maybe next year. But in the game recap, there's this note about Dong-Yub Kim:

I suspect both, but I'd suspect more the former than the latter. My guess is that 19 short-season innings at age 19 isn't enough to tell what a guy will be or could be. So if you don't know the future for a kid, it makes sense to start him and see how it goes. But I think it will be more surprise than expectation if he ends up with the diverse arsenal, pitch-count efficiency, and the durability needed for a rotation pitcher. So probably he'll end up in relief. But it doesn't hurt to take a look at how he'd do in rotation.

I think he struggled for April last year, or the first several weeks. I think he was hitting .230 or so, before getting a hot week and getting promoted. But that's just my memory. Agree that Campana probably projects as a Sam Fuld type, with less defense but possibly a more consistent hitter for average.

Thanks much for passing that on, Cal. I've kind of assumed that Jackson's arm was cooked and it would be a matter of time before they figured out how and when to surgerize. Would sure be nice if somehow he was able to bounce back and turn out to be fine and good.

That is pretty much as perfect a line as is possible. 12K/0 walks, volume K's, and pretty much all groundouts. Questions: 1. That is one of the most amazing pitching nights in my Cub farm memory. Just for fun, can anybody remember some others that stick in your memory, or were really great? I think Rich Hill had a couple that were of that type although not quite that good. Heh, I remember Phil Norton throwing a one-hitter in AA. I'm old enough to remember when Juan Cruz was in A-ball, and I seem to vaguely recall him having a 13K/2walk type game. Archer had a couple of very nice ones last year. I seem to think that Mark Prior had a really good game in his brief AA stint. I think Cashner had a really good start his 2nd or 3rd outing last spring. Any favorites of yours? 2. If anybody gets any more current scouting info on Whitenack, we'd all be interested. I think the person from Daytona last week thought he was throwing around 90 in the opener. But, he probably didn't throw as well in the opener as he did yesterday. Is this a deal where a guy who's normally around 90 was feeling good and is running it at 92-95 on a good night? Or was yesterday still a well-managed 90-sinker combined with an uncommonly sharp/controlled breaking ball/splitter/knuckle curve? 3. My friend who saw him last year said he was super skinny but had good shoulders and seemed projectible. I wonder if he's grown into a little of that body and actually is a little stronger/faster than he was? Or if it's just a matter of one day where the splitter (or whatever it really is and whatever he calls it) was exceptional, but that might not happen many times again? I've gotta say that's a pretty exciting night, and perhaps changes my perceptions on the guy. I'd had him in my top 20 during the winter, already higher than most posters. But that was based on projection, sinker/groundball/anti-HR guy, and control. Basically optimism for a guy who might have such above-average location that he wouldn't need more than average stuff to be somewhat above average. But with little expectation that not only might he have unusually good control and anti-HR movement, but that his stuff might be better than average besides. Wow, it's fun to dream.

The principle certainly holds that if a guy changes his approach, his results may change, for better or for worse. If a guy sells out for power, his average can suffer even if he adds some HR's. I don't really disagree with any of scotti's points. It's entirely possible that DJ will be a bad hitter if he tries to swing for power, and will lose the one thing that he's really good at, the contact thing. It's also entirely possible that if he remains as he is, a contact guy with no walks and no power, that he'll spend time in the high minors but will never be a good major leaguer. So probably as with any projectible guy coming out of A-ball, the odds are safe to predict that he won't make it. That said, I think it's quite common that imperfect A-ballers will need to make some adjustments to be successful. Of course most don't, but some do. DJ, we'll see. Possible yes, probable, maybe not. I also think that "accidental" HR's are an important thing, and could improve significantly for him. A guy gets bigger and stronger, some accidental HR's can follow without changing what he does well. But, I also think their is logic in my concept of making some adjustments. Yes, you can adjust for the worse, but some guys do for the better. If a slugger is pulling the ball all the time, don't coaches continually press on him to go with the pitch and use the opposite field? If it's bad for a power guy to not go with pitches and to not use the whole field, and it's appropriate to help them adjust favorably; then why isn't it bad for a low-power guy to not go with pitches and to not use the whole field? Isn't it appropriate to help him to adjust favorably and use the whole field, including the pull field and to go with inside pitches to that pull field? And, if the pitch happens to be in his sweet spot, to "accidentally" go with the pitch over the wall into the bleachers part of the field where OFers never catch the ball? Over a season, doing that just once a month is worth 10 points in batting average and 50 points in OPS. Can't a guy do that naturally without taking away anything good that he can already do? I also think the point you made, TT, is fair, that when you're a .315 no-K hitter, you can afford to lose a few singles in the pursuit of a few HR's, and still have a high average. I guess I also kind of believe that guys who have the gift of contact, they are the ones most likely to be able to make adjustments. When hitting the ball is as hard as was true for Corey, it's hard to change things without making things even worse. But for gifted hitters, they can sometimes play around a little more without losing that gift of contact. I'm hoping that applies to DJ. Hendry has seemed to have that view too, as you mentioned TT. He figured that DJ would gain some power naturally, without losing what he does well. We'll see.

Excellent. I hadn't heard that he was, so I'd wondered if he was just not considered in the pool with Wallach and Ebinger and those guys, and was now just to be a middle reliever. So I'm glad that he's still in the mix enough to be piggy-backing, and that if he does well, as he did last night, that he's still got a chance to be a prospect. 4K's is nice, he didn't K many last year. And of course blister rather than sore shoulder is nice as well.

Vitters has been 3B-1B-off. Flaherty has been LF-off-SS. Interesting. Question: Can anybody find out or figure out or share what's up with Rhee? According to the box score and the recap, he pitched 3.2 effective innings tonight (4K/1walk, 2 singles, although very fly-ball oriented, if that's bad....). 3.2 seems too long for a guy who is just scheduled to pitch relief on their roster. But then if I'm reading things right he came out with two outs in the 9th, nobody on base, and a 4-run lead. Possible explanations: 1. The box score/game record is wrong. (Like when they had Whitenack going 7 innings, or even 8...) 2. He got injured. If so, doesn't anybody know anything or able to find out? 3. He is piggy-backing and they are trying to stretch him out. So he hit his count at 3.2 and they pulled him, but he hadn't at 3 innings so they wanted him to get those exta two batters. If he's pigging and is maxed after 14 hitters faced, then he's well behind the three starters, each of whom has gone a full five, and with some more barerunners involved. Or else he had some massive pitch counts and was running a lot of foul-offs tonight. If he's hitting his limit after 3+, why is he behind the others? Must have had some injury or setback, if that's the case. Hopefully nothing meaningful then, and hopefully it was a pitch count thing tonight rather than a fresh injury.

Nice to see Szczur playing and getting some hits. He's another guy, likely to be a contact hitter, hopefully he'll eventually end up with some power to at least some degree. But it would help if he took some walks and boosted his OBP, too. Also every scouting report always mentions his speed first, but he hardly stole at all last year or in college. I've assume he probably never will be a big-league basestealer. But if he did learn how to steal, and be able to do that both efficiently and with some volume, that would also be nice. Cabrera going for Tenn. Utility Flaherty is playing SS tonight! 1-2-3 first for Kurcz. Arizona Phil's guy Alcantara is off to a rather poor start for Peoria.

I think LePage may be a one-tool player. He's 5'8". Fast for college but won't steal in pros, not powerful, not a rocket arm, and I assume he's nothing special defensively either (although I hope he turns out to be OK.) So in the easy-to-scout four categories, I suspect he's pretty unlikely. He hit .345 last year at Boise, but in his 3 years at UConn he basically hit a fairly consistent .340 or so there too. Good, but not extraordinary in college. (In the Big East, Pittsburgh had a team average of over .360...). He was 3rd-team all conference, again not exceptional. Both in college and at Boise, he struck out very little. So my guess is that if he has one tool that's average or better, it's the hitting/contact tool. Fortunately, the hitting/contact tool is the most important one there is. Last year, he didn't walk much at all. If he's going to make it as a contact guy, he's either going to need to hit for extraordinary average or else supplement his BA with some OBP. Or both. So I'm glad to see him taking some pitches. I think the contact gift is the least subject to level. I think that's got to be the hope.

Thanks very, very much, ice. Interesting that they new he probably had a bad arm but still were go. I agree with their take, that he has good upside if/when healthy. I thought he was by far the most interesting of the three guys, although I have hopes if more remote for Hicks. Hopefully Morris will be back and better than ever next year. And hopefully Hicks will get off to a surprisingly good start and end up working out too.

Szczur must be injured, got replaced in the 9th inning of the suspended, and didn't play in game 2. Hatley K's the side in his single inning. Cales a nice 2-inning perfection. Carpenter set up to lose his first pro relief outing, but Iowa rallied to win it. Little LePage with another walk, plus a couple more hits. I'm not really counting Iowa, since they don't have prospects. But otherwise, all six rotation starters have done well: Dolis-Struck-Kirk-Simpson-Whitenack-Rusing. Good to see. A very nice night indeed. Man it's fun to have the games to check every night again.

Larry, likewise thanks for your scouting report. Post em whenever you watch. Whitenack pretty heavily fastball/sinker? Or were there some definite breaking balls? Arizona Phil made reference to a "killer splitter". Did you notice anything sharp like that? Or pretty much keep the fastball down and go with that? On Simpson, certainly nice to get the report that he was touching 94. With good arsenal of offspeed pitches and control, that doesn't sound like too feeble a fastball.

Whitenack was revised to 5 innings, with Lorisch picking up the 6th and 7th innings. Unlike toonster, I was thrilled with Simpson's debut. Yes, it's true that often a 1st round college pick should be expected to handle A- hitters. But I wasn't the least bored to see Simpson actually do that. He was a small-college guy, so his experience is questionable and was questioned. He's been extensively dissed as a 1st round pick, and viewed as a reach, a bad pick, a signability pick, a guy who hasn't really shown anything yet against anybody meaningful, and as a low-ceiling guy. So to pop out with a 7-K start in 3+ innings isn't boringly obvious to me, it's a refreshing encouragement that maybe he wasn't a reach or a bad pick or a signability guy. And with K-control stuff, maybe his ceiling isn't nearly so low as many have assumed. Some posters worried about the mono, that it might really set his career back, and he might not be ready to open in full season, etc. So to be ready to open and throw 70 and be strong enough to be K'ing 5 of the last 6 opposing hitters, I'm thrilled, not at all bored and unimpressed with that. All in all a really encouraging start for so young a pitcher as that. I recall during the Cub rankings that when I had simpson #6, I don't recall any posters ranking him that high. He was a reach, many thought he was more a 4th rounder, he had mono and hadn't shown anything, etc.. Several premium posters had him behind golden or wells or both. My guess is that if results like yesterday are boringly routine for him, ranking him #6 won't seem very unusual for long. I'm thrilled. Likewise thrilled with Jackson and Vitters debut. And Silva (a walk, which had been a concern; a hit; and gunned a baserunner.) Little LePage hit .345 last year with super contact/low-K profile, but walked way too little for a no-power-no-SB guy. To see him take two walks last night is an encouraging start, if he adds a healthy dose of walks without badly compromising on his .345 average, he could become an OBP machine. Heh, usually