cheapseats
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Everything posted by cheapseats
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Dewan ranked him 32nd out of 35 CF's. Not too good.
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You can try out different lineups here: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py According to the simulator, Murton and Barrett would be the ideal 1 and 2 hitters for the Cubs, but as goony said, the difference in runs per game isn't very much (about .7 runs) no matter how you shuffle the same 9 players around. .7 runs total, or .7 runs per game? It's per game. And I don't understand how you can say .7 runs per game isn't very much--is a pitcher with a 3.80 ERA not much better than one with a 4.50 ERA? But did you actually enter the numbers in the simulator to see the results? As bad as Dusty's batting orders can be, he doesn't even approach the worst possible orders (batting the pitcher first, Juan Pierre cleanup, etc). And, for various reasons (player egos first and foremost), the lineup that works the best in simulation is one that no current MLB manager would use. The .7, therefore, is the range between the unrealistically good and the unrealistically bad. You could make a case that Dusty's lineups cost the Cubs as much as 5 games last year (and will cost them about that much this year), but the Cubs are still a well-below .500 team no matter how you juggle the hitters.
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You can try out different lineups here: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py According to the simulator, Murton and Barrett would be the ideal 1 and 2 hitters for the Cubs, but as goony said, the difference in runs per game isn't very much (about .7 runs) no matter how you shuffle the same 9 players around.
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I am confident that Reds playoff tickets would bring more money in resale than Cardinals tickets, thus making it easier to fund my 2007 Cubs tickets purchases (if, in fact, I go to any games next year). Go Reds!
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McGwire Avoiding MLB's Steroid Investigation
cheapseats replied to The Voice of Reason's topic in General Baseball Talk
FWIW, in McGwire's peak 7 years, he posted 83.7 WARP, and the average HOF 1B has 80.6, so before even worrying about performance enhancing drugs, McGwire has the numbers, but not by a whole lot. Jay Jaffe's JAWS metric ranks McGwire as the 11th-best 1B of all-time, behind contemporaries Jeff Bagwell (3rd), Rafael Palmeiro (7th), and Frank Thomas (9th). You'd think Bagwell would be a lock, but those who vote and only look at counting stats might forget that the Astrodome was an extreme pitcher's park. Palmeiro probably won't get in b/c of steroids, and I wouldn't be surprised if McGwire doesn't get voted in, either. Frank Thomas should be there, but less than half of his games have come at 1B, so he'll have to overcome the stigma of being a DH. -
Blasphemer! Neifi is our savior.
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.247/.320/.468
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...you mean stuck in the 70's baseball mindset? Pretty much - although I'd say 60's baseball in Santo's case. I'm all for longtime baseball people conducting drills and teaching fundamentals, but I'm starting to believe that those who played the game on a professional level don't understand how to maximize a team's chances for success. I'd love for someone who never played pro ball to replace Baker, but it won't happen. Billy Beane = played ball professionally Jim Hendry = did not Outlier. And I was really talking about replacing Baker with a non-baseball lifer. That would be radical.
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The more I see him, the more I don't like him. Do you think Hendry is there scouting him? Of course.
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...you mean stuck in the 70's baseball mindset? Pretty much - although I'd say 60's baseball in Santo's case. I'm all for longtime baseball people conducting drills and teaching fundamentals, but I'm starting to believe that those who played the game on a professional level don't understand how to maximize a team's chances for success. I'd love for someone who never played pro ball to replace Baker, but it won't happen.
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Gotta tip your cap.
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There was actually an article in Baseball Prospectus today that questioned the Astros plate discipline. It's really weird to see the Cubs leading in that department, even for one game.
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The more I listen to Santo, the more I realize that he would be just like Hendry if he were a GM and just like Baker if he were a manager.
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Hendry needs to lock up some players who are clutch with RISP this offseason.
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Wow. There's a lot of ignorance on that message board. So Ensberg is having a horrible, wretched year, but his WARP is exactly the same (3.9) as Aramis Ramirez, and he's had fewer at-bats. So the Astros problem is clutch hitting with RISP? That sounds like something Jim Hendry would say. So the Astros need to play more small ball? Bunt more? Hit more sacrifice flies? It seems they haven't discovered OBP yet, either. Are public schools failing in Houston? The squeeze play worked out nicely for them! And there were several posts on the message board calling for Houston to try the squeeze again later in the game.
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I doubt Theriot or Neifi would be starting today if the game hadn't gone 18 innings last night. Theriot and Perez were both used as pinch hitters.
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Dusty is dumber than a rock.
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Apparently no warnings issued....
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He's doing his part to speed up the game after the marathon last night.
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I know I shouldn't judge all Houston fans by one message board, but they really don't get it. Yeah, they're disappointed that the team won't make the playoffs, but they really need to learn about what makes a baseball team good.
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Wow. There's a lot of ignorance on that message board. So Ensberg is having a horrible, wretched year, but his WARP is exactly the same (3.9) as Aramis Ramirez, and he's had fewer at-bats. So the Astros problem is clutch hitting with RISP? That sounds like something Jim Hendry would say. So the Astros need to play more small ball? Bunt more? Hit more sacrifice flies? It seems they haven't discovered OBP yet, either. Are public schools failing in Houston?
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I expect some combination of Neifi, Theriot, and Nevin in the infield today.
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Do the Cubs have the worst outfield defense in the league?
cheapseats replied to garsky's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I hate replies like that. Then who does, in your opinion? There are a lot of teams with worse defensive outfields. We focus on Cubs mistakes because that's the team we follow. We have no frame of reference except what a player "should" have done. When you actually compare the Cubs to other teams, they're fine. Using Davenport's fielding stats, Boston, for example, is much worse. Manny Ramirez costs them many runs in left, Coco Crisp - who is an above average LF - is a below average CF, and Wily Mo Pena is below average in RF. The Dbacks outfield is below average at every position at well. The Giants have Randy Winn doing a great job in CF, but they also have Barry Bonds and Moises Alou at the corners. etc. etc. I'd gladly see the Cubs get worse defensively in the OF to upgrade the offense. -
Off to get five hours of sleep. Woohoo!
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